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Hydrogen Roadmap North America Workshop

Alex Körner

alexander.körner@iea.org

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Content

Roadmap outline: Scope – vision – structure Roadmap analytical capabilities: Modeling tools State of the art

Literature reviewInput data validation – transportPreliminary results

Expected outcomes of the workshop

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Structure and scope of the roadmap

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Outline of Roadmap

Introduction Rationale for roadmap – H2 in the energy system

TransportStationary applicationsEnergy storageSynergies between energy sectors

Technology status today Vision for deployment to 2050 Technology development – Actions and milestones Policy, regulation, financing: Actions and milestones

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Rationale hydrogen

Decarbonization of the energy system

Power sector: Increased demand for operational flexibility creates demand for energy storage

Transport sector: Increased demand for high energy density AND low carbon fuels puts pressure on biofuels and creates demand for alternatives

Stationary: Increased demand for high efficient and integrated processes creates demand to use intersectoral synergies

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Key features of Hydrogen

Potentially low carbon Very flexible energy carrier which can be generated from

almost all PE to a suite of useful end-use energy carriers Can store energy

At large scale over long time – Energy storage & VARres integration

At small capacities under restricted space and weight requirements - Transport

Can be used as feedstock to reduce carbon footprint Hydrogen is used in large quantities already today

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Key features of Hydrogen

In the long term, hydrogen applications needs to built on: The use of low carbon hydrogenThe need to store energy (either at larger quantities or in

mobile applications) In the short term, existing infrastructure to generate and

distribute hydrogen will have to play a great role to create hydrogen demand markets

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Technology status today

Discussion of key technology componentsElectrolyzers, fuel cells and storage technology

Discussion of demand side technologiesFuel cell vehiclesNiche applications

Fork lifts, UPS, micro FC CHP

Hydrogen distribution, transmission and retail infrastructureTransmission technology – Gaseous and liquefied trucking,

pipelinesHydrogen refueling stations

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Technology status today

Hydrogen based flexibility options for the power sectorPower – to – powerPower – to gas Power – to – fuel

Efficient steel making processesBlast furnace top-gas recovery with H2 separation and re-

injection

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Regional focus

The roadmap will contain global views on certain aspects – e.g. GHG potential of FCEVs in road transport

Detailed analysis will focus on the following regionsEU G4USAJapan

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Vision – Transport

What if 25% of all PLDVs are FCEVs by 2050?Vehicle sales and ramp-up ratesDiscussion of global fuel use and emission reduction potentialCosts and benefitsInfrastructure requirements and costs

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Conventional ICE

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Vision – Hydrogen storage

What if large scale hydrogen electricity storage can get competitive?Estimation of storage potentials in high VARres integrationWhat costs/efficiencies needs to be reached for H2 electricity storage

technology to be competitive

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Vision – Power-to-gas Can power-to-gas be a competitive flexibility option?

At which carbon price power-to-gas can get competitive?Attempt to estimate regional storage potential within existing NG

infrastructure under certain blend shares based on existing studiesWhat techno-economic parameters of electrolyzers needs to be achieved?

Source: Analyse des Klimaschutzpotentials derNutzung von erneuerbarem Wasserstoffund Methan, DVGW 2013

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Vision – Power-to-fuel

What if otherwise curtailed electricity would be used to produce H2 for transport?Even under optimistic cost/efficiency assumptions of electrolyzers, low

value electricity needs to be used to make renewable H2 competitive with e.g. NG steam reforming

Can the inherent storage need for transport refueling infrastructure serve as a storage for VARres integration?

Source: Renewable Electricity Futures Study,Volume 1, NREL 2013

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Technology development – Actions and milestones Actions and milestones will be set based on the

following metrics:Which cost targets needs to be met – benchmarking of H2

technologies Transport: TCO breakeven with gasoline hybrid ICEs Storage: LCOE breakeven with PHS, CAES

By when cost targets needs to be met Based on FCEVs stock targets, stock turn over and sales ramp-up Based on power sector scenarios and variable renewable integration

This roadmap recommends the following actions: Proposed timeline

Assess and catalogue potential PSH and CAES sites and estimated costs. For PSH, this assessment should include pump-back, off-stream, and closed-loop, land-based and marine potential.

2014-2020

Assess potential and costs of transforming existing constant-speed pumped storage hydropower (PSH) into variable-speed, allowing these plants to provide additional ancillary services

2014-2020

Complete retrofits on existing PSH facilities to improve total efficiency and flexibility. 2020-2035 Improve storage efficiency of CAES systems to 70%, in particular through improvements in compression (turbine) efficiency and adiabatic CAES project development.

2014-2035

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Policy, regulation, financing – Actions and milestones

FCEVs: Estimate of economic gapEffect of taxation of petroleum based transport fuelsQuantification of direct subsidies

Power – to – gas: Impact of carbon prizing H2 electricity storage:

Discussion of current barriers – e.g. storage technologies frequently do not fit naturally into existing regulatory frameworks as they provide value across different portions of the market

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Analytical capabilities

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Overall ETP modelling framework

Supply side:TIMES – Energy system least cost optimization model

Demand sideSplit into three sectoral models: Transport (MoMo), Industry

and BuildingsAll demand side models are technology rich stock accounting

simulation tools which allow for sectoral projections of energy use, emissions and costs until 2050

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ETP modelling framework

Model horizon: 2009-2050 (2075) in 5 year periods

Primary energy

Conversion sectors

Final energy

End-use sectors

End-use service demands

Electricity production

Fossil

Renewables

Nuclear

Refineries

Synfuel plants

CHP and heat plants

etc.

ElectricityGasoline

DieselNatural

gasHeatetc.

Industry

Buildings

Transport

Material demands

Heating

Cooling

Passenger travel

Freight

etc.

ETP-TIMES model

MoMo model

Energy costs

Energy demand

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Centralised hydrogen production

Pyrolysis/Gasifier/Reformer

with and without CCS

Sulfur/Iodine cycle

Electrolysis

Natural gasHeavy fuel oilCoalBiomass

NuclearSolar

Electricity

Decentralised hydrogen production

Electrolysis at fuel station

Reformer at fuel station

Electricity

Natural gas

H2 pipeline

H2 storage

H2 distribution

Natural gas pipeline

Natural gas use

H2 use in transport,industry, buildings,electricity generation,refining

Reformer/Gasifier at refinery

Natural gasHeavy fuel oil

H2 use in refining

H2 gas storage

LH2 storageH2 use in transport

Hydrogen supply options

max. 10%

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ETP Mobility Model (MoMo)

It is a spreadsheet model of global transport energy use, emissions, safety, and materials use analysis of a multiple set of scenarios, projections to 2050 Based on hypotheses on GDP and population growth, fuel economy, costs, travel demand,

vehicle technology shares

World divided in 29 regions, incl. a good number of specific countries USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Japan, Korea, China, India The model is suitable for handling regional and global issues

It contains a large amount of data on technology and fuel pathways full evaluation of the life cycle GHG emissions cost estimates for new light duty vehicles estimates for fuels costs and fuel distribution infrastructure section on material requirements for LDV manufacturing

It is based on the "ASIF" framework:Activity (passenger travel) * Structure (travel by mode, load factors) * Energy Intensity = Fuel use

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Vehicle stock in 2DS and variants

2DS passenger transport integrates technological and behavioural aspects: Avoid/Shift/Improve

ETP 2012 discussed different technology portfolios with respect to energy use, emissions and costs based on varying the shares of FCEVs vs. PHEVs

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Fuel demand by scenario and fuel type

To reach the emission target, in the 2DS energy use in the road transport sector needs to be reduced by almost 50% compared to the 4DS, going back to 2010 levels whilst vehicle stock is more than doubling

The increased use of FCEVs can liberate more biofuels for use in other transport sectors

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State of the art

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Literature review

Literature list see ETP 2012 Recently reviewed:

NREL FCEV Demonstration Project FC stack lifetime seems main issue (2000h ~ 40,000 – 80,000km)

FCH-JU/McKinsey bus study Leaves a lot of open questions with respect to results and methodology

NREL Renewable Energy Futures Study Interesting levels of curtailment at various rates of variable renewable energy

penetration: At 90% RES (~60% VARres) 140 TWh electricity are might be curtailed annually

NAS - Transition to alternative vehicles and fuels “Fuel cells, batteries, biofuels, low-GHG production of hydrogen, carbon capture and

storage, and vehicle efficiency should all be part of the current R&D strategy. It is unclear which options may emerge as the more promising and cost-effective.”

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Kick-off meeting and Europe WS

On June 9/10 IEA hosted kick-off meeting and Europe WS in ParisVehicle technology is mature, market is neededStrong need to built upon existing studiesStrong desire to focus on qualitative analysisNo common idea on infrastructure development nor how a

“final” H2 T&D and retail system could look likeCosts of renewable H2 are a major challenge for applications

in all sectors - economical only with very low electricity costsNiche markets for electrolysers might emerge in the near

future in the control power segmentCareful classification and distinction between H2 energy

storage applications and energy service

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Input data review

In November we sent a compilation of input data for review to the Hydrogen Roadmap steering group

The data contained assumptions on:FCEV Stock & salesTechnology component cost and learning ratesFCEV costsVehicle fuel economy

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Preliminary results - FCEV costs

FCEV costs drop relatively quickly with sales if envisaged FC stack production costs can be achieved

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FCEV

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Glider (USA)

Gasoline ICE (USA)

Gasoline HEV (USA)

HEV global average MSRP in 2011

Gasoline HEV Plug-in (USA)

Prius-PHV

Diesel ICE (USA)

Diesel HEV (USA)

CNG/LPG (USA)

H2 FCV (USA)

BEV (USA)

BEV global average MSRP in 2011

FCEV stock

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Total cost of driving

TCO drop slower due to H2 generation and T&D cost Based on TCO “economic gap” analysis can be conducted

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FCEV stock

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Example economic gap calculation

30% taxation of petroleum fuels TCO breakeven FCEV vs. hybrid around 2040 At 30% petroleum fuel taxation, annual FCEV „vehicle subsidy“

would peak at ~15% tax revenue

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-10%

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FCEV stock millions

"Subsidy" per vehicle sold, thousand USD/veh

Annual share of "subsidy" on "tax"

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Copper-plate storage potential 2DS

Combination of long-term investment decision/least cost energy system run and dispatch model run with 2050 fixed ES fleet

Storage results captures only time-wise mismatch between supply and demand

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Long-term H2 electricity storage

300 MWel_out, 120h, 5 cycles/y LCOE highly senstive to:

Set-up of storage & cycle rate Investment cost electrolyzer/fuel cell, efficiency fuel cell

Break even with OCGT at ~300 USD/kW for FC if all other parameters fixed – Synergies with transport/large scale FC production?

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Seasonal Today

Seasonal Future

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Short term H2 electricity storage

Electricity – to – electricity short term storage does not look very promising, even with optimistic cost assumptions

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H2 symetric PHS

LCO

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Arbitrage Today

Arbitrage Future

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Expectations & proceeding the workshop

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WS expectations & structure

Agenda of the WS is very broad We will not have the time to go very much into technical

detailIdentification/prioritization of main technical/market

related/policy related issues for H2 applications in North American context

MobileStationaryStorage Industry?

Short presentations will start discussion in seven specific sessions

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Thanks!