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How an Urbanizing Population is Affecting Change in Chinas Real Estate Market A view through the lens of 30 years of project work 17 th Annual Fisher Center Real Estate Conference Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

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1 234 Overview IntroductionFacts & Figures Our WorkDevelopment Trends 1234

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1 234 Cepolina.comInfoseekchina.com

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1 234 Wildchina.comThefakechina.com

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1 234 Pearl River Delta (1979) NASA Earth Observatory

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1 234 Pearl River Delta (2003)

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1 234 Total Population (2011/12) 1.4 billion ~313 million China (2011)US (2012) Chinas population is 4.3 times the size of the U.S.s

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1 234 Population Growth Rate 0.52% 0.84% 1.47% 1.13% Population Growth Rate China U.S.

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1 234 Chinas Population (2011) 1.4 billion China (2011)

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1 234 Urban Population >50% urban (690 million) 26% Compared with In 1990

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1 234 Urban Population in urban areas >1 million 18% (240 million) 45% (140 million) Compared with In the U.S.

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1 234 GDP Growth Rate 10.4% 3.0% 3.8% 1.9% 8.2% Expected in 2012 China U.S.

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1 234 GDP (nominal) $7.3 trillion (US$) China (2011) Chinas nominal GDP is 48% that of the U.S.s $15.1 trillion (US$) US (2011)

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1 234 Real Estate Market as % of GDP 12% (US$710 billion) Real Estate contribution to GDP

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1 234 AECOM Who we areAECOM 1 234

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1 234 Architecture Building Engineering Water Design + Planning Environment Transportation Energy Program + Construction Mgmt. Government Services AECOM Who we are

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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in China 1 234

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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 1 234

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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 11 offices in China 1 234

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1 234 Working in China >30 years of working on projects in China 15 years with offices in China 11 offices in China ~ 4,000 staff in China 1 234

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1 234 AECOMs Work in China

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1 234 Main Drivers of Development Economic PoliticalRegulatory Development

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1 234 major trends in AECOMs project work in China* 6 *Disclaimer: None of these trends are really TRUE!

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1 234 Increase in tourism- oriented development Increase in demand for economic services Increase in client sophistication Increased public sector involvement Increase in urban infill projects Increase in mixed use development Notable Trends

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1 234 Increase in Urban Infill Projects Suzhou Region, Jiangsu Province 1

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1 234 Increase in Public Sector Involvement 2

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1 234 Increase in Mixed Use 3

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1 234 Increase in Client Sophistication 4

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1 234 Increase in Demand for Economic Services AECOM 2010 860 97 50 , 5

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1 234 Increase in Tourism-oriented Development 6

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1 234 Increase in tourism- oriented development Increase in demand for economic services Increase in client sophistication Increased public sector involvement Increase in urban infill projects Increase in mixed use development Notable Trends

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1 234 Is there a Real Estate Bubble?

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1 234

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1 234 Thank you! Anita Roth Senior Economist, AECOM Anita.roth@aecom.com @anitaroth12

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1 234 GDP per Capita (PPP) $8,382 (US$) China (2011) Chinas Per capita GDP (PPP) is 17% that of the U.S.s $48,386 (US$) US (2011)