5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth

Observation

Stephen Plummer (IGBP-ESA)Jing Chen and Feng Deng (U. Toronto)

Philippe Ciais (LSCE)

Nadine Gobron (JRC)

Roselyne Lacaze (MEDIAS)

Tristan Quaife and Martin De Kauwe (CTCD)

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Scientific Context

Source: Sarmiento & Gruber, 2002, Physics Today, 55, 30-36

Accumulation rate in atmosphere

Accumulation rate in ocean and on land

1 Pg C/yr

3.5 Pg C/yr2.5 Pg C/yr

6.5 Pg C/yr

Net UptakeOcean & Land

Large interannual variation in the annual atmospheric CO2 growth rate

Fossil fuel emissions

Growth rate of carbon reservoirs

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Inter-annual variations in CO2 growth rate

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Secular increase in primary productivity from satellite NDVI over the past 25 years

Nemani et al., Science 2003(% per year)

Regional greening and browning?

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation

• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR

• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Leaf Area Index GLOBCARBON

Deng et al. in press, TGARS

Feng Deng,Jing Chen

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

GLOBCARBON vs. MODIS - 1

Degraded to 10km, Barton Bendish (UK) 2001

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

GLOBCARBON vs. MODIS - 3

Degraded to 10km, Oregon (USA) 2001

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation

• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR

• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

The 2003 European Heat wave

Philippe Ciais

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Changes in FPAR between 2003 and former years

Philippe Ciais

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Vegetation ‘Trend’ 1999–2003

decrease increaseDecrease Increase

Biosphere Energy-Transfer HYdrology model

Knorr et. al. (2005) ‘ Global-Scale Drought Caused Atmospheric CO2 increase’, EOS, Transactions 86(18):178 & 181, 2005.

Nadine Gobron

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

NINO3 measures the strength of an ENSO event as the SSTA averaged over [5S,5N] and [150W,90W]. Image from: http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/descriptions/.nino3.html

99% significance

Niño3-SST Anomalies…1

Precipitation

Chen et al./NCEP-ClimatePrediction Centre

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

‘Trends’ at global scales

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Nadine Gobron

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation

• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index

• FAPAR

• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

GLOBCARBON uses the experience of these and some of the algorithms to produce a single burned area product – multi-annually.

Burned Area – No product = No trend

GBA-2000 Globscar

• Year 2000 – two independent demonstrators of global burned area: GLOBSCAR and GBA-2000

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Results – 1 km (Angola)

July 1998

GLOBSCAR only GBA only Both algorithms

Algorithm Detection (GLOBSCAR, GBA, Both)

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

MODIS Comparison – 1 km

July 2000

MODISGLOBCARBON

June 29

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Global Trends in LAI, FAPAR, Burned Area and Fire using Earth Observation

• Scientific Context• Leaf Area Index• FAPAR

• Burned Area• Active Fire• Conclusions

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

World Fire Atlas

308 or 312K – 3.7μm channel

Global

1995-present

ATSR-2 + AATSR

1km*1km

3-day repeat

monthly files in ascii format (Date, Lat and Long)

http://dup.esrin.esa.int/ionia/wfa/

Underestimation, industrial sites not masked, night-time

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Satellites do not see everythingTRMM v ATSR-2 (Jan 98)

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Diurnal Schematic

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Time (hrs)

No

rmal

ised

so

lar

po

siti

on

NOAA-12

NOAA-14MODIS

ENVISAT

ERS-2

NOAA-14

ERS-2

NOAA-12

MODIS

ENVISAT

Fire 1

Fire 3

Fire 1 (next day)

MODIS

MODIS

Fire 2

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Seasonal – Inter-annual

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Continental

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Conclusion - 1

• While the products are becoming available, LAI currently does not have sufficient consistency for long times series analysis globally. Attempts to do so are possible but they should be viewed with caution.

• FAPAR derived from space has been shown to reliably exhibit strong signatures of climate and other stress impacts on vegetation.

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Conclusions - 2

• Burned area represents a similar story to LAI but with fewer products and there are problems at regional scales. GLOBCARBON will provide 10 years once reprocessed and MODIS is coming…

• Active fire data exist as long time series (ATSR-2 WFA, TRMM, MODIS) but they represent snapshots (no one product is better than another). They provide a means to examine climate trends and regional variation but ultimately it requires high resolution geostationary for continuous diurnal monitoring

• Continuity of biophysical products over long time series are needed with various instruments:

– Same type of high level products complete with quality values – Validation and comparison exercises for quality assessments.– Consistency over time and between products

5 June 2006 Canberra, Australia

Canberra Fires Jan 15 2003

Hot spots detected by ATSR-2 (left) and AATSR (right) with ½ hour spacing. Below actual scene zoom with saturated pixels in blue (>312deg)