Fordham Talk Climate Change & Global Warming 2010 DASH Final

1/29/10 Copyright Jan W. Dash 1

Climate Change & Global Warming

Where are we now?What can we do?

Talk, Fordham University 1/28/10

Jan W. Dash, PhDDirector Climate Initiative, Board, UU-United Nations Office

Exec. Comm., UN Committee Sustainable Development NY (CoNGO)Member Green Team, Middletown NJ

Visiting Research Scholar, Fordham University


Talk Outline

• Science– Impacts– Mitigation and Adaptation

• Carbon Politics– US, International– Copenhagen Climate Conference Dec 2009

• Carbon Finance– CDM, REDD, Carbon Trading, Investments

• Appendix (if asked)– What about the Contrarians?


Science, Impacts, Mitigation


Climate Change AND Global Warming

• Climate change: general term– Natural effects (Solar etc)– Anthropogenic effects (human)

• Trends => Climate• Fluctuations => Weather• CLIMATE NOT SAME AS WEATHER• Global Warming: Specific Meaning =>


What is Global Warming GW?

• GW = Average GLOBAL temperature• GW = TREND of temperature going up• Weather Fluctuations DON’T COUNT

– 1998 hottest year (El Niño): Don’t cherry pick– “It’s cold in January”: Irrelevant red herring– “It’s cold in Chicago”: Irrelevant red herring

• Long term since 1975: Earth is warming onaverage, this is Global Warming


Global Temperature Data since 1880There IS Global Warming since 1975

• Data GISS/NASA. Just in: 2009 was 2nd hottest year


Yes, Global Warming Exists,and the Models get it Right

Temp 100 yrsModel output:Red: AllBlue: Natural

Black: DataShows GW

Physics-basedSupercomputermodelsIPCC Science I


There IS Scientific Consensuson the existence / cause of GW

• Poll of Active Climate Researchers withClimate Science Expertise:– These are the REAL experts– Over 96% of these experts agree that recent

Global Warming exists and that humanactivity is a significant contributing factor

– M. Zimmerman: “The Consensus on the Consensus, An opinion surveyof Earth Scientists on global climate change”, thesis


Recent GW is due to HumanGenerated Greenhouse Gases

20,000 yrsof data.

CO2 spikeis recent,unprecedentedDue to humans

IPCC Science I


ALL forcings are put intomodels, natural and human

• IPCC Science I


What About Uncertainty?

• ALL models => increasing global temp by 2100– Most model uncertainty is due to future human

behavior uncertainty, NOT the physics of the models• Don’t confuse weather and climate

– Climate / Global Warming = Average TREND– Weather = Local Fluctuations in space, time

• Although Global Warming => more extreme weather

• “Navy does not wait for perfect certainty”– Admiral, PhD, Head of Navy Climate Task Force

• 100% “Certainty” never possible


Sources - science information

• Generally: Consider the Source– Climatology Credentials Count– Any published PEER-REVIEWED articles?– Go to the quoted original source to avoid misquotes

• IPCC Reports– Available for download free

• RealClimate.org– Professional climatologist website – readable!

• UU-UNO climate portal– http://www.digitaluniverse.net/uuuno/


IPCC Reports – Comprehensive

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change`– http://www.ipcc.ch/

• Three AR4 2007 Volumes (1,000 pages each)– Summarize published literature - peer reviewed– Over 3,500 scientific reviewers, authors– Science (1), Impacts (2), Mitigation (3)


Digitaluniverse.net/uuuno/Great UU-UNO climate site: links, information


World-Wide Impacts of GW

• We are starting to see bad impacts NOW• Impacts will get FAR WORSE if we do not act• Developing countries will be hit hardest, but• NOT just Africa: U.S. will be hit very hard!• Severe water shortages, crop failures, fires,

droughts, disease increase, flooding, speciesextermination, extreme weather, sea level rise,heat waves, acidified oceans, mass migrations,increased conflict (wars), economic disruption …


Ex: Climate Change and Health

• "Climate change is the biggest globalhealth threat of the 21st century.”

• “Effects of climate change on health willaffect most populations in the next decadesand put the lives and wellbeing of billionsof people at increased risk.“

– Lancet : "Managing the health effects of climate change", A. Costello…


What will happen depends onHuman Behavior (Scenarios)

IPCC 2007Science I

2oC increase =>Earth warmerthan in millionsof yearsRealclimate.org


MIT Roulette Wheel forTemperature increases by 2100

• Warming could be double previous estimates


What is 350?

• Analysis from data (Hansen et al):– “If CO2 level continues above 350 ppm, can't

sustain a planet similar to the one we knowand to which life on Earth is adapted”

• Cenozoic data 65MM years ago, planet developedice at poles, CO2 level was 425 ± 75 ppm

• Result NOT dependent on climate models• Currently, CO2 level is 385 ppm, going up


Impacts WILL hit U.S. hard ifbusiness as usual

US Global Change Research Program


Climate Change, US NationalSecurity

• "Projected climate change poses aserious threat to America’s nationalsecurity…”

• This threat was emphasized by Pentagon atsession, US Center, Copenhagen ClimateConference, Dec 2009

• Above quote: CNA report by senior U.S. military personnel


Warming Climate MayDevastate Major U.S. Crops

• Three of the most important crops produced in the UnitedStates—corn, soybeans and cotton—are predicted tosuffer declines of as much as 80 percent if temperaturescontinue to rise with manmade climate change

• Warming can be above threshold to damage/kill plants• Schlenker and Roberts, Columbia & NC State U, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences


Regional US impacts fromGlobal Warming – Examples:

• FIRE: Warming and Earlier Spring IncreaseWestern U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity

• WATER SUPPLY: Declining MountainSnowpack in Western North America

• DROUGHT: Imminent Transition to MoreArid Climate in Southwestern North America


Why Mitigate Global Warming?• Mitigation is not free, but “do nothing” is worse

– Human suffering due to increasingly severe impacts– $Do Nothing Business As Usual >> $Mitigation– Delayed mitigation will cost much more– Ref: Stern Report

• Framework = RISK MANAGEMENT– Low Hanging Fruit first– “No regret” actions = good, regardless of climate

• $ Opportunities– Green Energy investment is taking off– Save $ incentive (energy efficiency…)


Moral, Ethical Aspects to ACT

• We have a moral and ethical imperative tolearn about climate change / globalwarming, and to act appropriately anddecisively. This imperative derives fromall people living today on the planet andthose who will follow us. We cannot havesucceeding generations say: "They refusedto learn" or "they knew but did not act."


Levels for Mitigation• Individuals• Corporations• NGOs (faith, environmental)• Governments (local, regional, national)• Intergovernmental


Personal Solutions to Global Warming

• The car you drive – compare fuel efficiencies.• Choose clean power• Look for Energy Star.• Unplug that extra refrigerator or freezer if not in use.• Get a home energy audit.• Light bulbs matter.• Think before you drive.• Let policymakers know you are concerned about

global warming.• See Union of Concerned Scientists


Green Energy (1)

• Solar electricity generation (photovoltaic)– Currently expensive at $0.30/kwh

• But average income many developing countries = $2./day– State subsidies needed in US

• Ex: NJ SREC given for 1,000 kwh generated = $700 spot– N.b. Solar water heating easy, cheap, less ambitious

• Wind electricity generation– Most promising short term renewable– Complaints: “ugly” , “birds” => put wind offshore– Needs GRID to transport power

• Infrastructure grid development in US required– Denmark: 20% of electricity is wind generated


Green Energy (2)• Geothermal - Stable temperature underground

– Ex: Home - install $25K, breakeven 10 years• Biofuels

– Corn ethanol popular in US farm belt: $$• Displaced food + commodity vol. controversy

– 2nd generation biofuels: R&D stage (enzymes)• Cellulose: switch grass, poplar trees• Algae

• New Fission nuclear Integral Fast Breeder reactor– Eats nuclear waste from existing old fission reactors– Proliferation problem is largely removed– In R&D, not ready


Green Energy (3)

• Fusion: “Generate energy like the sun does”– ITER facility France => 20 years to commercial?

• Lawson criterion ALREADY met– DT now, DD later: enough for millions of years


Adaptation?

• We will need to adapt as well as mitigate• Adaptation studies underway

– Ex: Netherlands• But how much CAN humans adapt?

– We are no longer hunter-gatherers– Six billion people cannot move much

• However will see mass migrations (hundreds of MM)

• Poor people will get hit hardest, equity demandsfunding from developed nations– Copenhagen Accord has some funding


What about Geo-engineering?• Attempts to modify earth’s climate

– CDR = Carbon Dioxide Removal: OK idea• Sequestration of CO2 in ground, trees, biochar…• Long term addition to portfolio of actions

– SRM = Solar Radiation Management: Bad idea• Ex: Shoot sulfur into stratosphere, partially blocks sun• Like a “Drug”: treats symptoms, not cause

– Short term “fix”– If stop, quickly go right back to global warming

• Subject to manipulation, abuse, instability• Unknown consequences on large scale, may backfire

• Moral hazard if used as replacement to mitigation


Carbon PoliticsIntroduction


US Politics and Climate

• US Congress energy/climate bill– House: Waxman-Markey bill passed– Senate: Bill TBD in 2010

• US State initiatives– States out in front with ambitious emission cutting

• Ex: Sustainable New Jersey– Interstate: East Coast RGGI, Western Climate Initiative

• US Local initiatives– Cool Cities, US Conference of Mayors, Municipal Green Teams– ICLEI: network of local governments (US, worldwide)


Environmental Protection Agency

• EPA will/must regulate CO2 if no US legislation– Lisa Jackson: Even if legislation, EPA will regulate some– Transparent; public comments (May 2009)


Corporate Level:Businesses are waking up to GW

• LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - A coalitionof more than 500 international companieson Tuesday urged rich countries to committo "immediate and deep" cuts ingreenhouse gas emissions at U.N. climatetalks to help combat global warming…

• Ref: CNA report


Investors are waking up to GW

• 181 leading investors and financialinstitutions responsible for the fiduciarymanagement of USD $13 trillion – thebackbone of the global economic system -have today unveiled a Statement on theUrgent Need for a Global Agreement onClimate Change

• Ref: UNEPFI report


International: UN

• UNFCCC– 1992 “Rio”, treaty, US is signatory– Conference Of Parties (COP) meets yearly– Kyoto Protocol 1997, all signed except US

• COP15 Copenhagen Dec 2009– Long Term Cooperative Action track “LCA”– Kyoto Protocol track “KP”

• Next is COP16 in Mexico Dec 2010


UN Climate Change“Conferences of Parties” COP

• All countries, NGOs, thousands attend


Main negotiation issue:Cumulative vs. Current Emissions

• Developed Countries (US, EU …)– Responsible for most of cumulative CO2 now in atmosphere

• Developing Countries– China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, OASIS, Africa, G77…– Emissions increasing, will dominate in future– China now #1 for current CO2 emissions, per year– Per-capita emissions still lower than in developed countries

• “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities”– For emissions reductions, taking all the above into account– Kyoto Protocol language

• Science => Globally, already near CO2 limit ~ 400 ppm


Total Cumulative CO2emissions (150 years)

• US, EU responsible for 57% and China 7%


Other Major Issues• Economic growth for developing countries

– Who pays for what and when (ST/LT financing)• “Climate Justice”

– Some island states will probably disappear (Maldives)– Africa will be hit very hard, didn’t contribute to GW

• COAL COAL COAL– China, US… cheap coal-based, huge GW problem

• Cap & Trade vs. Carbon Tax; Carbon Markets• Potential Disaster vs. Vested Interest Politics

– How much will we Stick Our Heads In The Sand?


Other Copenhagen Activities

• Klimaforum• Business Forum• Carbon Finance• Exhibits• Side Events

Presentation: NGO CSDpaper at Klimaforum =>


Copenhagen Accord• Negotiations became chaotic, stalled, acrimonious• Obama late visit => “Copenhagen Accord”

– Best that could be accomplished (alternative = “nothing”)– 2 degree target on temperature change is explicit (progress)– Emission reduction programs by country will be listed

• China promises some mitigation with some verification (progress)– Measure, Report, Verify “MRV” provisions– Long Term Funding for developing countries $100B/yr by 2020– NOT legally binding

• Viewed as a “First step” toward treaty (COP16 Mexico 2010)• Third world: not “fair, ambitious, binding” (not “FAB”)

• Proposed reductions: way too small for 2 degree C target


Carbon FinanceIntroduction


Clean Development Mechanism CDM

• Market mechanism set up by Kyoto Protocol– Projects for emissions reductions in developing

countries, financed by developed countries thatreceive Carbon credits

• So far 2,000 projects, but– Not too significant for CO2 globally yet– Need to prove “additionality”, difficult– Bureaucratic delays for project approval…

• Expansion of CDM: forests, C sequestration?


REDD (Reduced Emissions fromDeforestation, Forest Degradation)

• Don’t Add atmospheric CO2– Sequestration of Carbon in trees

• Problem of permanence (disease, fire)– Ex: Huge Canadian forests decimated by pine

beetles (moving north due to warmer climate)• REDD+

– Includes C stock enhancement, management…


Allowances, Offsets

• Allowances: European Union– Each country has certain # allowances (Kyoto targets)– Country then determines # allowances for businesses ABC– ABC surrenders one allowance for each ton of CO2 emitted– ABC can sell unused allowances as carbon credits– ABC can buy needed allowances privately or open market.

• Offsets: Compliance Market– Govts. buy offsets to comply with national CO2 caps– Financial support of projects that reduce CO2 emissions– CDM-approved Certified Emissions Reductions CER given


Carbon Trading

• Trading in Carbon assets (allowances, offsets)• European Emission Trading Scheme ETS

– Goal: Minimize cost of meeting emissions targets• Cap and Trade for CO2 in US

– Basis for climate negotiations, US energy bill– Voluntary Chicago Climate Exchange - small

• Hansen’s Fee and Dividend idea is different– Tax C at source, $ straight back to all US taxpayers


Investment

• Green Energy– Siemens solar in N. Africa=> Europe with HVDC– Bloomberg Forum 2009

• US govt. impetus needed– Ex: Recovery Act:Obama AdministrationDelivers over $106 Millionfor Energy Efficiencyand Conservation Projectsin Nine States


What Scares ME?

• Methane from permafrost melting =>uncontrollable global warming

• Complacency, inertia, expediency,disinformation may prevent effectivetimely action to counter global warming

• My grandson looking back and saying“Grampa didn’t do enough”


Bottom Line

• Global warming exists, humans are causingit, impacts will be increasingly severe

• If we act decisively, we CAN mitigate GW• Mitigation is not free, but is cheaper than

Do Nothing Business As Usual– Mitigation will ameliorate human suffering

• $Opportunities will abound


Appendix: The ContrariansWho are they?

What do they say?Why are they wrong?


Who are the contrarians andwhat are their goals?

• Contrarians are mostly not climate scientists– Ex: news weathermen are not climate scientists

• Contrarians are mostly U.S. phenomenon– Dominate US right-wing climate agenda– Support from fossil fuel, libertarian think tanks

• Exxonsecrets.org has details

• Contrarian goals: stop climate legislation andregulation, stop mitigation of global warming


The Nature of Science

• Science is “knowledge”, a web of facts andtheory, together very strong– But, science is not mathematics– Mathematics: one chink or a missing fact or minor

error invalidates a proof– Science: never “proves”, only degrees of certainty

• Scientists are already “skeptics”, need persuasion– BUT once persuaded, need good reasons to change

• Scientists in the field publish in journals– Peer review acts as a good (not perfect) filter


Contrarian Distortion of Science

• Contrarian conjectures are not science– Wrong, misinformed, irrelevant, distorted, cherry-picking, flimsy

• Ex: “Sun responsible for recent global warming” = wrong– Good description = “Cargo-Cult” pseudoscience (Feynman)

• Common contrarian tactics are not scientific– Use mass media (not peer-reviewed journals)– Ignore critiques of their arguments / conjectures– Copy Big Tobacco “doubt on smoking danger” tactic– Try to put “science in the courtroom”, use lawyer obfuscation– Try to discredit climate science and scientists

• Nitpick, turn molehills into mountains, falsely generalize– Contrarian op-eds => destructive “Swift-Boat attacks” on science


Solar Fluctuations did NOT causeglobal warming since 1980

• Sun just Oscillating: NO increasing trend– Contrarian conjecture of recent solar influence = False

• Data: GISS/NASA


Contrarian AttacksWrong, Irrelevant, Unwarranted

• Contrarian “Global Cooling” Conjecture => Wrong– Cherry-picks the starting date 1998, indefensible scientifically

• 1998 had high temperature due to huge El Niño weather effect

• “Hacked emails” => Irrelevant to science results– Investigation underway, BUT contrarian generalization is false:– Climate science results, existence of global warming, climate

data, models, projected impacts are NOT affected• “Himalayan glaciers” => Unwarranted attack on IPCC

– 2007 IPCC reports, summarize published work, 3000 pages– One paragraph was wrong (p. 493, Vol. II)– Glitch in IPCC review process, not general

• Ref: Realclimate.org, also exhaustive AP email review


Bottom Line on Contrarians

• Main tactic: Sow doubt• Main goal: Stop action on global warming• More information on Realclimate.org

Fordham Talk Climate Change & Global Warming 2010 DASH Final

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