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Agricultural Development Economics DivisionFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Feeding the World in 2050:Feeding the World in 2050:Challenges for Agriculture

Kostas StamoulisKostas StamoulisDirector


Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture 1


Feeding Everyone ? Number of undernourished

Zaragoza, 26-02-2010 2Feeding the World in 2050: Challenges for Agriculture

Source: SOFI 2009


Challenges for agriculture in the 21st Century

• Meet the food needs of all 9.2 billion people by 2050Sufficient nutritious affordable– Sufficient, nutritious , affordable

• Meet additional demands from energy markets• Cope with scarce resources and shift to more sustainable production p p

methods• Adapt to the agro-ecological changes related to climate change

C t ib t t Cli t Ch iti ti• Contribute to Climate Change mitigation • Contribute to the protection of livelihoods as agriculture transforms and

markets are integrated– 75% of poor live in rural areas



Demand drivers

Population growth:• +2 3 billion in the next 40 years; +3 3 billion over the last 40 years• +2.3 billion in the next 40 years; +3.3 billion over the last 40 years• +2.7 billion in urban areas, significant urbanization• Highest growth in poorest region: Sub-Saharan Africa (+114%)• Lowest growth in East and South East Asia (+14%)• Lowest growth in East and South East Asia (+14%)

Income growth:Income growth:• Overall a richer world by 2050• +2.9% growth per annum for the world as a whole;• higher in developing countries (5 2%); lower in industrial countries• higher in developing countries (5.2%); lower in industrial countries

(1.9%)• Less poverty, but not sure how much less.



Population growth and urbanization, 1950-2050

9000

10000

7000

8000

4000

5000

6000

Pop

ulat

ion

(mill

ions

)

2000

3000

4000P

0

1000

2000


Source: United Nations Population Division

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Total population Rural population Urban population


A Richer World$2004 trillion % per year

140

160

7

8Developing country GDP (left-axis)

100

120

5

6Developing country growth (right‐axis)

60

80

3

4High‐income growth (right‐axis)

20

40

1

2

0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0


Source: Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009


Food energy intakes, 2000-2050 ( Developing Countries)( Developing Countries)

Milk d d i Other, 5%Milk and dairy products, 3%

Meat and eggs, 7%

Cereals, 56%

Other, 5%Milk and dairy products, 5%

Meat and eggs 10%

Cereals, 46%

Fruits and vegetables,

5%

V t bl

2000Average daily per

capita consumption:

Fruits and vegetable,

6%

eggs, 10%

2050Average daily per

capita consumption:Vegetable

oils, 10%

p p2667 kcal

Vegetable oils, 14%

6% consumption: 3068 kcal

Sugar, 8%

Roots and tubers, 6%

Roots and tubers, 6%

Sugar, 8%


Source: FAO


The food outlook: Demand Increases but by less than in the past

Sl d i d d th P l ti th l dSlow down in demand growth : Population growth slowdown, “food satiation” and urbanization. • +70% between 2005/07 and 2050 vs. 148 % ( past 40 yrs)• +1,000 million t of cereals annually (from 2,200 million t today)• +200 million t of meats (from 270 million t today)• +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today)• +300 million t of soybeans (from 215 million t today)

Food trade: rapid expansion overall• DC net imports cereal: 125 million t 300 million tp• DC net exports oilseeds: 8 million t 25 million t• DC net exports sugar: 10 million t 20 million t



Demand and production of cereals, 2050

3000000

3500000

2500000

3000000

)

1500000

2000000

(000

tons

)

500000

1000000

0World Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia Industrial countries

Demand Production


Demand Production

Source: FAO


Demand and production of meat, 2050

500000

350000

400000

450000

s)

200000

250000

300000

(000

tonn

es

50000

100000

150000

0World Sub-Saharan

AfricaLatin America East Asia South Asia Industrial

countries

Demand Production


Demand Production

Source: FAO


Who will produce the food : The global food outlook to 20502050

Baseline: How much more needs to be produced by 2050? (%)

148

70

past

future

Wor

ld Agricultural production

23future

p

velo

ped

97

63

future

past

opin

gD

ev

255

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

past Dev

elo


0 50 100 150 200 250 300Source: Bruinsma (2009)


How will we produce it ??

Globally: 91% from increased yields and cropping intensities

In developing countries: 79% from increased yields and cropping

intensityintensity

• Improved seeds

• More efficient input-use (especially water and fertilizer)

Relatively small increase in cultivated area



Is there enough crop land?

Huge potential: 4.2 billion ha

1 60 billi h i t d i t 1 67 billi h1.60 billion ha in use today, increase to 1.67 billion ha by 2050

SSBut land reserves unevenly distributed: ample in SSA and LA, exhausted in NENA and SASIA

800 mha covered by forests, 200 mha in protected areas, 60 mha in settlements

75% of land potential is concentrated in 13 developing countries ( Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America)



How much land is available now and in 2050?


Source: Schmidhuber (2009); Data from Bruinsma (2009)


Arable land expansion

600

Thirteen developing countries account for two-thirds of the (gross) land balance

598

400

500

600

188200

300

400

81 94 10472 67 61 62

9058 65 57

0

100

200

Braz

ilCo

ngo,

DR

Ango

laSu

dan

Arge

ntin

aCo

lombi

aBo

livia

Vene

zuel

aMoz

ambi

que

Indo

nesia

Peru

Tanz

ania

Zam

bia

2005 in us2050 in use

potential

0


M se e

Source: Bruinsma (2009)


Very High Yield Increasing Potential: Africa

6

Exploitable yield gaps are high for maize in Africa

4

5

ctar

e

2

3

Ton

per h

ec

0

1

Ma la w i Eth io p ia N ig e r ia Ug a n d a Ma li ( n 1 6 3 ) Mo z a mb iq u eMa la w i( n = 4 5 6 6 )

Eth io p ia( n = 3 1 0 )

N ig e r ia( n = 2 5 0 1 )

Ug a n d a( n = 4 6 1 )

Ma li ( n = 1 6 3 ) Mo z a mb iq u e( n = 5 0 8 )

A v e r a g e n a tio n a l y ie ld A v e r a g e y ie ld in f a r m d e mo n s tr a tio n s


Source: WDR 2008, Sasakawa Africa


Yield potentials: Large in Developing Countries

SUGAR CANE

70

80

90

100

MAIZE89

10Potential Yield Current YieldS i 3

20

30

40

50

60

70

234567

Yie

ld (t

on/h

a)

0

10

20

Mexico Brazil Thailand India China Pakistan012

USA Argentina China Brazil Mexico India

4 7

RAPE SEED

2

3

3

4

on/h

a)

PALM OIL

4

5

6

7

0

1

1

2

Yiel

d (to

0

1

2

3


0Germany U.K. France China Canada India

0China Malaysia Colombia Indonesia Thailand Nigeria

Source: FAO


Bridging the Yield Gap: Wheat



Iowa (USA) maize yields

16

y = 0.205x - 400.6

y = 0.116x - 221.2R² = 0.731

12

14

a)

Potential yield

R² = 0.639

8

10

in Y

ield

(tlha

Farm yield

4

6Gra

0

2

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


Source: Fischer et al. 2009


Energy market challenge

Oil prices per barrel versus food price per ton


Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects 2009


Fig. World Ethanol Production (000. t.)

160,000USA BRAZIL EU27 CHINA Others

EU27CHINA

120,000

140,000

BRAZIL80,000

100,000

BRAZIL40 000

60,000

80,000

USA

USA

BRAZIL20,000

40,000


USA01998 2008 2018

Source:oecd/fao, 2009


Fig. World Biodiesel Production (th. t.)

45,000

50,000EU27 USA ARGE BRAZ AUSTRAL MALAYS INDON INDIA OTHERS

INDIA35,000

40,000

ARGE

BRAZ

25,000

30,000

USA

15,000

20,000

EU27

EU27USA

5,000

10,000


02008 2018

Source:oecd/fao, 2009


Cereals Use for Ethanol

175 7 0

200 8

2008 2018

175 7.0

140

160

180

6

7

104

4.8

100

120

Mill

T.

4

5

%

40

60

80

2

3

0

20

40

0

1


million t. % of Cons (Right Axis)


Major Vegetable Oils Use for Biodiesel (excl. Jatropha)

35 25

2008 2018

31

20.2

25

3020

11.4

20

25

ill T

.

15

%

13

10

15

M

10

0

5

0

5


0

million t. % of Cons (Right Axis)0


H Will thi dditi l d d b t?How Will this additional demand be met?• IIASA (Cereals)



Impact of biofuels on consumption, 2020

Cereal food consumption, different scenarios Cereal feed use, different scenarios

Change of cereal use relative to baseline REF-01

0WEO-V1 WEO-V2 TAR-V1 TAR-V3

tons

)

-10

0WEO-V1 WEO-V2 TAR-V1 TAR-V3

tons

)

-10

-5

in 2

020

(mill

ion

Developing40

-30

-20

in 2

020

(mill

ion

Developing

20

-15

cere

al fo

od u

se p g

Developed

-60

-50

-40

cere

al fe

ed u

se p g

Developed

-25

-20

Chan

ge in

-80

-70Ch

ange

in


Source: Fischer (2009)


Climate Change and Agriculture : A two way street

Emissions from agriculture account for roughly 14% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

74% of the emission from74% of the emission from agriculture and most of the technical and economic mitigation potential from g pagriculture are in developing countries

Climate change affects Source: IPCC (2007)Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways

Source: IPCC (2007)Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050 based on literature and expert judgement of Chapter 5 Lead Authors. Adaptation is not taken


into account.


Impact of climate change I

Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small. Shifts within the system unfavourable to y y ypoor countriesAutonomous adaptation to temperature shiftsAt h i h (CO2 f tili ti ) i iti ll iAtmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land. Climate change, with and without CO2 fertilization will have a clearly

ti i t i th d h lf f thi tnegative impact in the second half of this centuryCC impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere.p ( y)Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near term than gradual changes in average conditions.


g g


Adding Insult to Injury: Climate change and biofuels

Climate change and biofuels: projected range of impact on agricultural prices and risk of hunger in 2030

Food prices, percent change(Price index: 1990=100)

Hunger risk (Additional people at risk of hunger, in millions)(Price index: 1990 100) risk of hunger, in millions)

Factor Lowest projection

Highest projection

Lowest projection Highest projection

p j

Climate change -3% 6% 1 million 35 million

Biofuels 3% 36% 25 million 135 million

Combined effect 2% 33% 9 million 192 million


Source: Fischer (2009)


Conclusions

The world can produce enough food to feed itself by 2050 Picture is complicated by uncertainties regarding biofuels andPicture is complicated by uncertainties regarding biofuels and climate change but basic conclusion remains Nothing is automatic...appropriate policies and investments are

d d t l it i ld t ti lneeded to exploit yield potentialWhere yield potential will be bridged will make a big difference for poverty and hunger reduction Producing enough food globally will not eliminate hunger — access to food must also be increasedImproving the performance of agriculture in developing countries isImproving the performance of agriculture in developing countries is necessary to increase both food production and access to food—basic livelihood for millions



Conclusions: Reversing Declines in Public R&D

10Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D spending, 1976-2000

8

cent

age)

4

6

wth

rate

(per

c

2

Ann

ual g

row

-2

0Sub-Saharan

AfricaAsia & Pacific Latin America

& CaribbeanWest Asia &North Africa

Developingcountries

High-incomecountries

A


1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000Source: Beintema and Elliott (2009)


Conclusions

Use Agriculture as a force of development ( growth, poverty reduction, sustainable resource management)--political willsustainable resource management) political will

Agriculture faces important market and agro-ecological risks and uncertainties : need to address market failures and provide incentives in a

di t tinon-distortionary manner

Increased public investment and appropriate policies are crucial for attracting private investment and supporting essential public servicesg p pp g p• Infrastructure, research, capacity building• Quality of investments is as important as quantity• Focus on resilience and risk management given increasing volatility• Focus on resilience and risk management given increasing volatility• Sound regulatory framework and improved governance of the agrifood

system



Muchísimas Gracias

ΕυχαριστωΕυχαριστω

Thank you

Grazie



Food security situation: 1.02 billion hungry in 2009

Developed15m

LAC

15mNENA 42m Asia & Pac

642mLAC53m SSA

265m



Demand and production of cereals, 2050

3000000

3500000

2500000

3000000

)

1500000

2000000

(000

tons

)

500000

1000000

0World Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia Industrial countries

Demand Production


Demand Production

Source: FAO


Demand and production of meat, 2050

500000

350000

400000

450000

s)

200000

250000

300000

(000

tonn

es

50000

100000

150000

0World Sub-Saharan

AfricaLatin America East Asia South Asia Industrial

countries

Demand Production


Demand Production

Source: FAO


Is there enough water?Irrigated land expansion and water use

Area equipped for irrigation

1961/63 2005/07 2050 1961-05 2005-50

million ha % p.a.

World 141 287 318 1 71 0 24World 141 287 318 1.71 0.24

Developed countries 38 68 68 1.57 0.00

Developing countries 103 219 251 1.76 0.31

excl. China and India 47 97 117 1.91 0.42

sub-Saharan Africa 3 6 8 2.07 0.67

Latin America 8 18 24 2 05 0 72Latin America 8 18 24 2.05 0.72

Near East/North Africa 15 29 36 1.86 0.47

South Asia 37 81 86 1.98 0.14


East Asia 40 85 97 1.42 0.30Source: Bruinsma (2009)


Structural transformation IShare of agriculture in GDP and per-capita GDP (180 countries)


Note:GDP per capita refers to 2005 PPP USD. Source: World Development Indicators, 2009.


Structural transformation

6 0

A declining share of agriculture in GDP, but a high and rising share of agribusiness in GDP in developing countries

Th a ila n d

5 0

6 0

DP

A g r ic u ltu r eA g r ib u s in e s s

Ug a n d a K e n y a Co te d 'Iv o ir e

In d o n e s ia

Th a ila n dMa la y s ia

B r a z il

Ch ile

A r g e n tin a3 0

4 0

ent s

hare

of G

D

A g r ic u lt u r e

A g r ib u s in e s s

Ug a n d a

Nig e r ia

K e n y a B r a z il

1 0

2 0

Perc

e A g r ic u lt u r e

0

G DP p e r c a p o ita , 2 0 0 0 US $ lo g s c a le

1 5 0 8 1 0 03 0 0 01 1 0 04 0 0


Source: World Bank, WDR 2008


Agriculture and poverty : Structural shifts in agriculture and agro-industry

As economies develop, emphasis shifts to value addition risk management quality and safety

industry

addition, risk management, quality and safety characteristics• Trade liberalization and FDI intensifies the spread of p

agribusiness• Gains from scale economies dominate • Knowledge and capital-based agriculture favours larger farm• Knowledge and capital-based agriculture favours larger farm

operators

• Rapid changes Increase risk of smallholder marginalization ( premature exit, urbanization)

Agriculture-development-poverty reduction link is broken



Conclusions

Increased efficiency and sustainability of agricultural production systemsproduction systems • R & D on appropriate technologies and practices

Looking beyond short term returns as evaluation criteriag yBuilding in greater use of farmer knowledge

• Improving farmer incentives for sustainable management of i lt l t ( PES)agricultural systems ( PES)

Trade Policies• Flexible and adaptable to the stage of development• Flexible and adaptable to the stage of development• Restore confidence in international food markets



Impact of biofuels on prices

Source Estimate Commodity Time period

World Bank (April 2008) 75 % global food index January 2002 – February 2008

IFPRI (May 2008) 39 %

21-22 %

corn

rice & wheat

2000 – 2007

2000 – 2007

OECD-FAO (May 2008) 42 %

34 %

24 %

coarse grains

vegetable oils

wheat

2008 – 2017

2008 – 2017

2008 – 2017

Collins (June 2008) 25-60 %

19-26 %

corn

US retail food

2006 – 2008

2006 – 2008

Glauber (June 2008) 23-31 %

10 %

commodities

l b l f d i d

April 2007 – April 2008

A il 2007 A il 200810 %

4-5 %

global food index

US retail food

April 2007 – April 2008

January – April 2008

CEA (May 2008) 35 %

3 %

corn

global food index

March 2007 – March 2008

March 2007 – March 2008


g

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