1. Feeding the World in 2050 Trade-offs, synergies and tough choices for the livestock sector Jimmy Smith, ILRI Director General 22nd International Grassland Congress 1519 September 2013, Sydney, Australia

2. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard trade-offs in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 Well need lots more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4 decades 2 Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security underestimated

3. We need lots more food, produced much more sustainably 1

4. By 2050 well need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat . . . 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m tonnes meat each year

5. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands Additional Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 human consumption 458 million MT Livestock 430 million MT Monogastrics mostly biofuels 160 million MT (IAASTD 2009)

6. Grown in more sustainable ways . . .

7. On the same amount of land . . .

8. And in face of big changes - A hotter, often drier, more variable, more unpredictable climate - More stringent food quality and safety standards - Widening gaps between rich and poor - Increasing threats of animal-to-human diseases - Increasing urbanization

9. In brief, we need food systems that are: profitable efficient safe nutritious equitable green For all

10. Roles of smallholders / livestock keepers in global food security underestimated 2

11. Food insecurity and undernutrition remain persistent Source: Frank Rijsberman/ CGIAR Consortium

12. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

13. Per capita % animal-source foods in daily diets Source: FAO, 2012 using 2005 data

14. Per capita global kilocalorie availability from edible animal products Source: Herrero et al (PNAS, in press)

15. Nutritional divides among 7 billion people today

16. Livestock demand is highest in developing countries 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Developing Countries Developed Countries Meat Milk Eggs Percentage increase 20002040 Source: IFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results

17. Developing countries lead in global food production Source: Herrero et al. 2009 Most global food comes from crop- and-livestock smallholders in developing countries

18. Smallholder livestock keepers are competitive More than 70% of milk in India and 85% of milk in Kenya is produced by small-scale livestock keepers

19. Growth scenarios for the livestock sector Strong growth Fragile growth High growth with externalities

20. Addressing partial truths / hard trade-offs in livestock sector opens big opportunities 3

21. Food security is about staple cereals Food to many people means staple cereals (corn, rice, wheat) Grains, as well as tubers (potatoes, yams, cassava) and pulses (dried legumes), do dominate diets of the poor They are relatively cheap and easy to store

22. But . . . Animal-source foods help meet global nutritional & food needs Milk, meat, eggs provide protein, energy, micronutrients Livestock livelihoods are means to obtain: - Manure for soil fertility - Traction for cropping - Regular incomes - Employment for 1.3b

23. Livestock compete with human food Half of the worlds grain is used for animal feed Feed crops are grown on 0.5 billion ha As much as 70% of the worlds agricultural land is related to livestock

24. But . . . Grazing systems, which comprise 1/3 of the Earths surface, produce meat and milk from grass and other inedible materials 70% of livestock diets on mixed farms are stover and other wastes / by-products of crop production

25. Importance of grazed biomass for livestock Grass represents 50% of the biomass consumed by livestock Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

26. Meat and milk are bad for your health More than 1 billion people are overweight and at risk from associated cancers, diabetes and cardiovascular disease

27. But . . . 1 billion people are undernourished Consumption of even small amounts of animal-source foods: - combats undernutrition - improves cognitive development - increases physical growth and activity

28. Livestock cause climate change Livestock contribute 1218% of global GHGs Livestock emit methane, the most potent GHG The developing world contributes 75% of global ruminant non-CO2 emissions: - 61% from mixed systems - 12% from grazing

29. But . . . Huge variations exist in GHG emissions levels Developing countries have as yet untapped potential to mitigate GHG emissions: - Through improved efficiencies (e.g., better feeds & feeding systems) - Through carbon sequestration on well- managed rangelands

30. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Large livestock production inefficiencies in the developing world present an opportunity Herrero et al PNAS (in press)

31. Livestock production uses too much water One-third of all agricultural water is used by the livestock sector: - 90% to grow feeds - 10% for livestock drinking

32. But . . . Developing countries can greatly improve livestock water productivity in production of milk and meat: - By three-fold through combinations of improved feed, water and animal management methods - By 45% through better management of rangelands

33. Livestock production degrades lands 65% of deforestation in the Amazon is caused by livestock- related activities: - 600,000 ha are deforested each year for planting crops that will feed livestock

34. But . . . Rangelands, which cover up to 40% of the Earths surface, comprise a vast carbon sink: - With moderate livestock grazing and good management, Africas rangelands alone could sequester 8.6 million tonnes of carbon each year

35. Key messages 3 Addressing partial truths and hard trade-offs in the livestock sector will open opportunities 1 Well need lots more food grown much more sustainably over the next 4 decades 2 Roles of smallholders /livestock keepers in food security underestimated

36. Last words The developing worlds livestock sector is diverse, changing, growing This presents opportunities for environmental harm and other ills It also offers us opportunities perhaps our biggest opportunities for influencing animal agriculture for the benefit of all

37. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI. better lives through livestock ilri.org