XXII Jornadas del Arroz Zaragoza (Spain)

9th March 2016

EU RICE MARKET

Damien PLAN European Commission

DG AGRI

Contents

1. EU Rice - Overview

2. EU Rice Trade – Imports/Exports

3. EU Rice Market – 2015/16 situation

EU Rice Production < EU Rice Consumption : 1 Mio T deficit (at least)

3

Production ≈ 1.7 Mio T Consumption ≈ 2.7 Mio T Imports ≈ 1 Mio T (milled eq)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

Production ('000 t milled eq.)

Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.)

EU Japonica Rice (short grain): Self-Sufficiency

4

Production ≈ 1.2 Mio T Domestic Use ≈ 1 Mio T Exports ≈ 0.2 Mio T (milled eq)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

Production ('000 t milled eq.)

Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.)

EU Indica Rice (long grain): Import Dependence

5

Production ≈ 0.5 Mio T Domestic Use ≈ 1.5 Mio T Imports ≈ 1 Mio T (milled eq)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

Production ('000 t milled eq.)

Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.)

Contents

1. EU Rice - Overview

2. EU Rice Trade – Imports/Exports

3. EU Rice Market – 2015/16 situation

Total EU Rice Imports Imports – overview Total EU Rice Imports - Overview

2014/15 Record : 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken

(broken rice imports: 340 000 tonnes)

+ 13%

ES 2014/15 Rice Imports EXTRA-EU: 52 824 T (4.5% total EU)

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

1 800 000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Japonica

Indica

broken

8

Total EU Rice Imports - Origin

2014/15: 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken

India 22,9%

Cambodia 22,0%

Thailand 18,5%

Pakistan 13,8%

Myanmar 6,5%

Guyana 5,9%

United States 3,7%

Uruguay 2,4%

Vietnam 2,0% Other

2,3%

9

Total EU Rice Imports - Destination

2014/15: 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken

UK 23,6%

FR 17,2%

BE 11,7%

NL 11,4%

DE 8,0%

IT 6,8%

ES 4.5%

PT 4,5%

SE 2,5%

CZ 2,3%

Other 7,3%

-

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

in t

on

nes

mill

ed e

q.

paddy husked milled / semi-milled broken

ES 2014/15 Rice Imports from EBA: 20 902 T (4% total EU)

EBA Imports – Overview 2014/15 Record : 487 310 tonnes (+21%)

incl. 344 210 tonnes milled rice eq. (+24%) and 143 100 tonnes broken rice (+14%)

10

+ 21%

11

Total EU Rice Exports - Overview 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Japonica

Indica

broken

+ 12%

ES 2014/15 Rice Exports EXTRA-EU: 35 992 T (15% total EU)

12

Turkey

42%

Switzerland

9%

Lebanon

7%

Albania

6%

United States

5%

Jordan

4%

Syria

4%

Serbia

3%

Norway

2%

Canada

2%

Bosnia Herzegovina

2%

Saudi Arabia

2%

Israel

1%

Others

11%

Total EU Rice Exports - Destination 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken

Total EU Rice Exports - Origin 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken

13

IT 49%

ES 15%

ELL 11%

BG 8%

PT

7%

UK 2%

RO 2%

FR

2% Others 4%

Contents

1. EU Rice - Overview

2. EU Rice Trade – Imports/Exports

3. EU Rice Market – 2015/16 situation

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Are

a (

'00

0 h

a)

Japonica Indica Total

EU Rice Area: + 5.5% increase in 2015

15

Total EU Rice Area 2015: 435 810 ha (+ 5.5% vs 2014) First increase in 4 years Contrast between Japonica (+18%) and Indica (-15%)

EU Rice Area per MS

16

Two major MS for rice: Italy (50% of EU) and Spain (30% of EU) ES 2015 rice area: 109 263 ha (+8% vs 2014)

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

Italy Spain Portugal Greece France Hungary Bulgaria Roumania

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

EU Paddy Rice Production - 2015

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Japonica

Indica

Total

Production 2015 : 3 Million tonnes paddy (+10.5%) First increase in 4 years

75% Japonica – 25% Indica

2015 EU Rice Production / Member State :

18

Production 2015 : 3 Million tonnes paddy (1,7 Million tonnes in milled eq.)

75% Japonica – 25% Indica

Italy 50%

Spain 28%

Portugal 6%

Greece 9%

France 3%

Hungary <1%

Bulgaria 2%

Romania 2%

EU Total Rice Production 2015: + 10.5%

2015 EU paddy rice production: 3 016 000 tonnes (+10.5%) 2015 ES paddy rice production: 832 309 tonnes of paddy (+5%) (28% EU total)

EU Japonica Rice Production 2015: + 24%

2015 EU Japonica paddy production : 2 262 000 tonnes (+24%) 2015 ES Japonica paddy production : 476 258 tonnes (+10%) (21% EU total)

EU Indica Rice Production 2015: -16.5%

2015 EU Indica paddy production : 754 000 tonnes (-16.5%) 2015 ES Indica paddy production : 356 051 tonnes (- 1%) (47% EU total)

Spanish Paddy Rice Production

2015/16: 832 309 tonnes of paddy (+5%) Japonica: 476 258 tonnes (+ 10% vs 2014) – 57% of ES total Indica: 356 051 tonnes (- 1% vs 2014) – 43% of ES total

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Japonica

Indica

EU Rice Market Prices: recovery in 2015

200

250

300

350

400

450

sep-2013 dic-2013 mar-2014 jun-2014 sep-2014 dic-2014 mar-2015 jun-2015 sep-2015 dic-2015 mar-2016

€/t

on

Source: MS notifications

IT Japonica - € 380

IT Indica - € 290

ES Japonica - € 320

ES Indica - € 303

EU Rice Market Prices: above average levels

320

309

291

332

281

298

250 255

291

295 278

279

267

280

266 263

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

2011-12' 2012-13' 2013-14' 2014-15'

EUR

O/t

on

ne

IT japonica

IT Indica

ES Japonica

ES Indica

Feb. 2016 ES Japonica 320 €

Feb. 2016 IT Indica 290 €

Feb. 2016 ES Indica 303 €

Feb. 2016 IT Japonica 380 €

Conclusions

• EU Rice Market 2015:

• EU paddy prices recovery (tight supply/demand early 2015)

• Good year for EU rice production : high area + good yields; sharp contrast Japonica (+24%) – Indica (-17%)

• Record year for EU rice trade (record imports of Indica, record exports of Japonica)

• EU Rice Market 2016:

• Supply: high (Japonica: high production, Indica: high imports)

• Demand: to be seen (in particular Japonica exports)

• Prices: still above average levels

Thank you for your attention

More information at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/index_en.htm

Follow-up:

damien.plan@ec.europa.eu