Enrollment ProjectionsMarch 9, 2021

• Review previous year’s enrollment/housing trends • Review recent enrollment/demographic data• Discuss future years’ enrollment

Presentation Objective

Fulton County Schools Enrollment

2

90,066

91,67192,500

93,818

95,095 95,505 95,688 96,048 95,61094,665

93,948

90,376

82,000

84,000

86,000

88,000

90,000

92,000

94,000

96,000

98,000

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

Fulton Enrollment Trends

3

48,787 49,578 49,919 50,201 49,887 49,582 50,101 49,815 49,452 49,11246,764

9,642 9,982 10,527 10,623 10,583 10,389 10,190 10,414 10,342 10,115 9,693

33,242 32,940 33,372 34,271 35,035 35,717 35,757 35,381 34,871 34,721 33,919

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,00020

10-1

1

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

2020

-21

Stud

ent E

nrol

lmen

t

North Fulton

Sandy Springs

South Fulton

Grade Level Enrollment Trends

4

Fulton New Home Closings

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

4Q07

2Q08

4Q08

2Q09

4Q09

2Q10

4Q10

2Q11

4Q11

2Q12

4Q12

2Q13

4Q13

2Q14

4Q14

2Q15

4Q15

2Q16

4Q16

2Q17

4Q17

2Q18

4Q18

2Q19

4Q19

2Q20

4Q20

Quarterly New Home Closings by FCS Region

Closed units - SF Closed units - SS Closed units - NF

Fulton Private School Trends

6

Fulton Home School Trends

7

Regional Enrollment Trends

8

2018-19 2019-20 2020-21First Month First Month Enrollment Change First Month Enrollment ChangeEnrollment* Enrollment* 2018-19 to 2019-20 Enrollment* 2019-20 to 2020-21

North FultonElementary 20,781 20,618 -163 18,782 -1,836

Middle 11,699 11,571 -128 11,049 -522High 16,972 16,923 -49 16,933 10

NF Total 49,452 49,112 -340 46,764 -2,348

Sandy SpringsElementary 5,022 4,785 -237 4,417 -368

Middle 2,046 1,986 -60 2,008 22High 3,274 3,344 70 3,268 -76

SS Total 10,342 10,115 -227 9,693 -422

South FultonElementary 16,997 16,614 -383 15,538 -1,076

Middle 7,984 8,215 231 8,134 -81High 9,890 9,892 2 10,247 355

SF Total 34,871 34,721 -150 33,919 -802

Fulton County Elementary 42,800 42,017 -783 38,737 -3,280

Middle 21,729 21,772 43 21,191 -581High 30,136 30,159 23 30,448 289

FCS Total 94,665 93,948 -717 90,376 -3,572Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools

2020-21 Forecast Accuracy

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First Month Forecasted Over/Under % Over/UnderEnrollment Enrollment Forecast Forecast

North FultonElementary 18,782 20,442 -1,660 -8.12%

Middle 11,049 11,325 -276 -2.44%High 16,933 17,038 -105 -0.62%

NF Total 46,764 48,805 -2,041 -4.18%

Sandy SpringsElementary 4,417 4,651 -234 -5.03%

Middle 2,008 1,995 13 0.65%High 3,268 3,333 -65 -1.95%

SS Total 9,693 9,979 -286 -2.87%

South FultonElementary 15,538 16,410 -872 -5.31%

Middle 8,134 8,294 -160 -1.93%High 10,247 10,198 49 0.48%

SF Total 33,919 34,902 -983 -2.82%

Fulton County Elementary 38,737 41,503 -2,766 -6.66%

Middle 21,191 21,614 -423 -1.96%High 30,448 30,569 -121 -0.40%

FCS Total 90,376 93,686 -3,310 -3.53%Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools

2020-21

Metro Area Enrollment Trends

10

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Gwinnett ( -1.80% )

Cobb ( -4.39% )

Dekalb ( -5.70% )

Fulton ( -3.98% )

Clayton ( -4.36% )

Atlanta ( -2.57% )

Cherokee ( -3.37% )

Forsyth ( + 1.19% )

Henry ( -1.47% )

North Fulton Housing Trends

11

Sandy Springs Housing Trends

12

South Fulton Housing Trends

13

Forecast ObservationsDistrictwide• Reset enrollment at Kindergarten and First Grade to Fall 2019*• Adjusted school level totals to accommodate the opening of 3 new schools

– Global Impact– Innovation Academy– Fulton Academy of Virtual Excellence

• Developed an “adjustment factor” for students in Grade 2 through Grade 8 who may have opted for private/home school in Fall 2020 that potentially could return Fall 2021

North Fulton• North Fulton residential closings are slightly down from last year • Continue to track grade-level mobility changesSandy Springs• 9th grade enrollment/mobility continues to be the strongest cohort for the region• Very little Covid-driven enrollment impact• Development, which is below last year’s closing rate, is not having a positive effect on

enrollmentSouth Fulton• Middle and high school enrollment were not significantly impacted due to pandemic

enrollment concerns; cohorts remain strong• The housing market in the region is moving aggressively with new developments and

strong absorption rates. Assumption for new student yields may need adjusting moving forward

14

2021-25 Forecasted Enrollment

15

2020-21 2021-22 Projected 2025-26 Projected First Month Forecasted 1-Year Forecasted 5-YearEnrollment Enrollment* Growth Enrollment* Growth

North FultonElementary 18,782 19,777 995 20,180 1,398

Middle 11,049 10,484 -565 10,372 -677High 16,933 16,721 -212 15,229 -1,704

NF Total 46,764 46,982 218 45,781 -983

Sandy SpringsElementary 4,417 4,565 148 4,451 34

Middle 2,008 2,017 9 1,638 -370High 3,268 3,140 -128 2,875 -393

SS Total 9,693 9,722 29 8,964 -729

South FultonElementary 15,538 15,808 270 16,137 599

Middle 8,134 7,972 -162 7,445 -689High 10,247 10,472 225 10,188 -59

SF Total 33,919 34,252 333 33,770 -149

Fulton County Elementary 38,737 40,150 1,413 40,768 2,031

Middle 21,191 20,473 -718 19,455 -1,736High 30,448 30,333 -115 28,292 -2,156

FCS Total 90,376 91,946 1,570 89,505 -871*Forecast is subject to change.

Data note(s): Figures include FCS charter and alternative schools except for GA Baptist and Wellspring schools