Demographic Trends and Enrollment Projections Projections.pdfDemographic Trends and Enrollment...

Demographic Trends and

Enrollment Projections

Elementary School District 159Country Club Hills School District 160

Matteson School District 162Park Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163

Rich Township High School District 227

Prepared by

John D. Kasarda Ph.D.Consulting Demographer

May 2018

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Contents

Preface.................................................................................................................................1

Overview of School Districts and their Communities Served....................................3

Housing and Population Trends....................................................................................6

Enrollment Trends and Student Migration/Transfer................................................23Determinants of Enrollment Change.......................................................................24

The Enrollment Future of the School Districts...........................................................46Projection Methodology............................................................................................50

Future Enrollment in the K–8 Foundation School Districts......................................54Elementary School District 159.................................................................................54Country Club Hills School District 160...................................................................55Matteson School District 162....................................................................................55Park Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163.................................................56

The Enrollment Future of Rich High School District 227..........................................57

Concluding Remarks......................................................................................................61

Appendix A: Enrollment Change Analyses of Elementary Districts......................86

i


Preface

This report examines population and housing trends in the municipalities

served by Rich Township High School District 227 and its K–8 foundation

districts and assesses the implications of these trends for future enrollment in

each K–8 foundation district as well as District 227. The K–8 foundation districts

assessed herein include Elementary School District 159, Country Club Hills

School District 160, Matteson School District 162, and Park Forest–Chicago

Heights School District 163.

Following a brief overview of the study areas, the report looks at housing

and demographic dynamics in communities making up this study. I then

examine the effects of these dynamics on enrollment changes in the K–8

foundation districts and analyze student migration/transfer patterns and other

determinants of observed enrollment changes. Next, I project enrollment for each

K–8 foundation district, by year and by grade, through school year 2027–28.

Finally, I analyze recent student migration/retention and transfer data for Rich

Township High School District 227 and bring the K–8 district projections to bear

on high school district enrollment projections through school year 2027–28 for

each of the District's three high schools.

1


All enrollment projections for the K–8 foundation districts and for District

227 will be in the form of three separate series based on assumptions about

future fertility rates, new residential development, turnover of existing housing

and resulting family in-migration to the area served by the respective school

districts. These three series will provide enrollment projections by grade and by

year of (A) the absolute minimum number of students that may be anticipated,

(B) the most likely number of students to be expected, and (C) the absolute

maximum number of students that can possibly be foreseen.

In conducting the analysis that follows, I benefited from housing data

provided by local officials and enrollment statistics and other demographic data

provided by administrators at each K–8 foundation district and District 227. For

their fine assistance and that of all others who contributed to this study, I am

most appreciative.

2


Overview of School Districts and their Communities Served

Rich Township High School District 227 is located approximately 30

minutes south of Chicago. The District consists of three grades 9 through 12

campuses: Rich East, Rich Central and Rich South. These campuses serve all or

part of the south suburban communities of Chicago Heights, Country Club Hills,

Matteson, Park Forest, Olympia Fields, Richton Park, University Park and Tinley

Park. District 227 was first organized by volunteers of the new community of

Park Forest by referendum in 1949. Rich High School, now known as Rich East,

opened in 1953. Rich Central High School, located in Olympia Fields, opened in

1961. Rich South, located in Richton Park, opened in 1972.

As noted in the preface, four public elementary foundation districts

(School Districts 159, 160, 162, and 163) are the predominant feeders of students

into District 227. School District 159 is composed of portions of the villages of

Matteson, Richton Park, Tinley Park, and Frankfort. Country Club Hills School

District 160 serves the city of Country Club Hills. Matteson School District 162

serves all or parts of Matteson, Olympia Fields, Park Forest, Richton Park, and

University Park. Park Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163 serves Park

Forest and part of Chicago Heights. Elementary School Districts 159, 162, and 163

3


feed all of their students into District 227, while District 160 sends just under 40

percent its eighth grade graduates to District 227.

Figure 1 illustrates the boundaries of District 227 and each of its high

schools. This figure also show the approximate boundaries of the four

foundation districts that are the main feeders of ninth-grade students to District

227 high schools.

4

Figure 1

Boundaries of District 227 and Elementary Foundation Districts

5


Housing and Population Trends

Like many of Chicago's more mature suburbs, the District 227 area

experienced a flurry of new housing construction from the 1950s through the

1970s (see Table 1). Park Forest had its greatest housing development between

1946 and 1959, when nearly 6,000 units were constructed. The village added

another 1,000+ units in the 1960s. Matteson, Richton Park, and Country Club

Hills experienced their greatest housing additions from the 1970s through the

1990s, with Matteson adding 3,500 units, Richton Park 3,836 units, Country Club

Hills 3,827 units, and Olympia Fields 1,089 housing units. The vast majority of

these homes were single-family, detached structures containing three or more

bedrooms. Furthermore, these homes were reasonably priced. Table 2 shows that

as late as 1990 the median value of owner-occupied houses Matteson was

$87,400, Park Forest $58,800, Richton Park $75,300, and Country Club Hills

$72,700.

The substantial amount of construction of moderately priced, detached

homes during the post World War II decades attracted large numbers of younger

couples with preschool and school-age children to the area. Moreover, during

1950 to 1970 period, most of these couples had at least two children.

6


Table 3 describes the population trends since 1950 for the municipalities

served by District 227. Between 1950 and 1960 Park Forest added over 20,000

residents (from 8,138 to 29,993). Its total population rose slightly to 30,638 in 1970

and has since declined to 21,831 in 2016. Country Club Hills, Matteson and

Richton Park expanded rapidly during the 1970s, with both villages continuing

to grow through year 2016, though only marginally between 2010 and 2016.

Olympia Fields developed primarily in the 1960s and first half of the 1970s, with

growth slowing afterwards. Note that Matteson did exhibit a strong growth

spurt between 2000 and 2010.

With the exception of Matteson (and to a lesser extent Richton Park and

Country Club Hills), the District 227 area experienced a dramatic slowdown in

new housing construction since 2000. When the housing crisis hit in 2008, Table 4

reveals a that single-family housing development came to a standstill and, except

for Matteson in the past two years, remained stagnate through 2017.

In sum, for the District 227 area, the vast majority of population growth

since 2000 was in Matteson, which expanded from 12,928 residents in 2000 to

19,146 in 2016. County Club Hills and Richton Park grew modestly while

Olympia Fields and Park Forest declined marginally (see Table 3).

Sales of existing homes data in the villages also exhibited a major drop-off

after 2007 (see quarterly data in Figures 2A through 2E). The sub-prime financial

7


crisis exacerbated by the deep recession seriously impacted both the volume of

sales and sales prices in Rich Township. Only in recent years has there been some

recovery in the volume of existing homes sales. Housing sales prices have also

recovered modestly, though they remain below pre-2008 levels.

8

Table 1

Residential Housing Units by Year Structure Built in Municipalities Served byRich Township High School District 227

Year Structure BuiltMatteson Olympia Fields Park Forest Richton Park Country Club Hills

Estimate % Total Estimate % Total Estimate % Total Estimate % Total Estimate % Total

Total: 7,242 100.0% 2,279 100.0% 9,349 100.0% 5,775 100.0% 6,624 100.0%

2014 or later 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

2010 to 2013 14 0.2% 20 0.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 44 0.7%

2000 to 2009 1,941 26.8% 189 8.3% 398 4.3% 698 12.1% 515 7.8%

1990 to 1999 1,344 18.6% 412 18.1% 407 4.4% 1,226 21.2% 897 13.5%

1980 to 1989 676 9.3% 292 12.8% 409 4.4% 633 11.0% 695 10.5%

1970 to 1979 1,480 20.4% 385 16.9% 888 9.5% 1,977 34.2% 2,235 33.7%

1960 to 1969 717 9.9% 557 24.4% 1,060 11.3% 521 9.0% 1,386 20.9%

1950 to 1959 747 10.3% 412 18.1% 4,536 48.5% 336 5.8% 671 10.1%

1940 to 1949 36 0.5% 12 0.5% 1,412 15.1% 152 2.6% 90 1.4%

1939 or earlier 287 4.0% 0 0.0% 239 2.6% 232 4.0% 91 1.4%

Source: Bureau of the Census. 2012–2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

9

Table 2

Median Value of Owner-occupied Housing Units in Municipalities Served byRich Township High School District 227: 1950 to 2016

Municipality 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

Matteson $9,417.00 $16,500.00 $21,500.00 $66,600.00 $87,400.00 $135,100.00 $199,000 $156,300

Olympia Fields — $38,000.00 $50,000.00 $133,300.00 $184,400.00 $234,200.00 $287,500 $233,400

Park Forest — $17,500.00 $21,100.00 $49,500.00 $58,800.00 $84,400.00 $111,600 $75,300

Richton Par — — $20,500.00 $56,800.00 $75,300.00 $125,700.00 $176,400 $138,100

Country Club Hills — $16,800.00 $22,900.00 $59,200.00 $72,700.00 $109,400.00 $160,200 $129,900

Source: Bureau of the Census. 2006–2010 and 2012–2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

10

Table 3

Population by Age in Municipalities Served byRich Township High School District 227: 1950 to 2016

Matteson

Age Group 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

< 5 148 475 371 1,013 850 832 1,123 880

5–9189

438 527 989 902 993 1,309 1,320

10–14 342 615 919 1,060 1,078 1,660 1,549

15–19156

195 482 808 1,017 994 1,553 1,224

20–24 108 350 792 687 729 976 1,530

25–29199

182 302 1,146 739 662 892 822

30–34 306 258 1,227 969 721 1,131 956

35–39204

280 305 703 1,197 1,020 1,364 1,568

40–44 244 371 515 1,123 1,098 1,343 1,224

45–49118

171 306 431 718 1,154 1,475 1,071

50–54 148 264 481 537 1,022 1,467 1,492

55–59108

81 182 384 409 702 1,308 1,645

60–64 74 124 313 399 530 1,154 1,377

65+ 89 181 284 502 771 1,393 2,254 2,488

Total 1,211 3,225 4,741 10,223 11,378 12,928 19,009 19,146

Continued. . .

11

Table 3―Continued


Richton Park

Age Group 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

< 5 — — 359 897 749 952 828 642

5–9 — — 323 924 740 1,015 978 820

10–14 — — 287 867 870 1,060 1,237 888

15–19 — — 196 638 896 930 1,178 1,326

20–24 — — 198 887 765 758 830 1,052

25–29 — — 272 1,233 927 942 808 724

30–34 — — 194 1,181 969 922 857 875

35–39 — — 110 772 1,012 1,049 1,034 601

40–44 — — 155 422 979 1,180 1,052 1,258

45–49 — — 135 314 618 981 1,009 1,039

50–54 — — 120 299 413 872 1,060 1,107

55–59 — — 86 347 272 574 868 875

60–64 — — 40 232 284 342 732 1,053

65+ — — 83 390 1,029 956 1,175 1,408

Total 232 933 2,558 9,403 10,523 12,533 13,646 13,668

Continued. . .

12

Table 3―Continued


Olympia Fields

Age Group 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

< 5 — 179 173 208 222 245 171 200

5–9 —402

361 329 274 305 238 166

10–14 — 544 452 296 342 330 176

15–19 —147

512 469 316 293 326 210

20–24 — 115 198 233 166 220 225

25–29 —152

59 109 148 127 164 259

30–34 — 114 234 209 173 158 162

35–39 —310

240 318 308 286 210 122

40–44 — 374 312 381 336 279 318

45–49 —180

393 373 399 401 358 411

50–54 — 238 446 322 432 380 430

55–59 —81

143 336 315 422 414 386

60–64 — 81 171 335 301 464 254

65+ — 52 131 191 490 903 1,276 1,569

Total — 1,503 3,478 4,146 4,248 4,732 4,988 4,888

Continued. . .

13

Table 3―Continued


Park Forest

Age Group 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

< 5 2,058 5,653 3,519 2,174 1,860 1,676 1,388 1,046

5–9 870 4,979 3,810 2,138 1,890 1,845 1,537 1,852

10–14 300 2,935 3,667 2,269 1,893 1,764 1,629 1,983

15–19 146 1,139 2,762 2,526 1,700 1,596 1,730 1,590

20–24 471 1,009 1,917 2,244 1,546 1,284 1,169 1,024

25–29 1,470 2,564 2,899 2,758 2,201 1,582 1,315 1,067

30–34 1,357 3,342 2,138 2,409 2,485 1,789 1,480 1,416

35–39 692 3,408 1,832 1,732 2,215 1,884 1,572 1,503

40–44 378 2,017 2,107 1,289 1,851 1,994 1,418 1,678

45–49 148 1,166 2,114 1,187 1,366 1,775 1,465 1,394

50–54 102 642 1,399 1,447 1,037 1,568 1,687 1,482

55–59 49 406 941 1,537 920 1,118 1,528 1,242

60–64 29 252 552 994 1,081 882 1,258 1,394

65+ 68 481 981 1,518 2,611 2,705 2,799 3,160

Total 8,138 29,993 30,638 26,222 24,656 23,462 21,975 21,831

Continued. . .

14

Table 3―Continued


Country Club Hills

Age Group 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2016

< 5 — 922 790 1,588 1,138 1,104 951 1,226

5–9 — 580 1,137 1,604 1,370 1,461 1,198 823

10–14 — 239 1,160 1,460 1,564 1,525 1,478 1,176

15–19 — 77 627 1,307 1,419 1,339 1,501 1,260

20–24 — 105 239 961 960 948 932 1,008

25–29 — 443 459 1,501 1,055 820 864 940

30–34 — 500 550 1,775 1,479 1,032 933 1,310

35–39 — 287 578 1,207 1,450 1,327 1,085 940

40–44 — 124 504 750 1,458 1,516 1,117 1,008

45–49 — 37 371 687 1,054 1,339 1,235 1,243

50–54 — 25 188 628 716 1,184 1,313 1,276

55–59 — 17 128 494 562 880 1,119 1,125

60–64 — 24 62 280 449 553 969 1,310

65+ — 41 127 434 757 1,141 1,846 2,149

Total — 3,421 6,920 14,676 15,431 16,169 16,541 16,794

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Decennial Census of Population. 1950 through 2000. 2012–2016 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.

15

Table 4

Housing Units Authorized by Building Permitin Municipalities Served by Rich Township High School District 227

1990 to 2017

YearMatteson Olympia Fields Park Forest Richton Park Country Club Hills

Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family

1988 44 0 37 0 — — 12 0 74 0

1989 32 0 48 0 8 0 50 0 52 0

1990 42 12 22 0 6 0 45 0 55 0

1991 48 0 21 6 2 0 45 0 41 0

1992 30 8 20 0 83 3 61 0 41 2

1993 54 8 41 0 — — 80 0 39 0

1994 62 0 41 0 7 0 83 0 60 0

1995 42 0 32 0 7 0 73 0 89 0

1996 38 0 24 0 10 0 117 0 73 44

1997 43 120 8 0 14 5 95 0 40 0

1998 123 0 12 0 19 18 78 0 57 0

1999 93 0 10 0 38 0 74 5 63 0

Continued. . .

16

Table 4―Continued

Housing Units Authorized by Building Permitin Municipalities Served by Rich Township High School District 227

1990 to November 2017

YearMatteson Olympia Fields Park Forest Richton Park Country Club Hills

Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family Single- family Multi- family

2000 145 0 16 2 15 95 59 0 56 0

2001 177 0 2 2 4 0 81 0 40 0

2002 235 0 13 0 7 0 75 0 51 0

2003 236 0 7 0 4 0 48 26 73 0

2004 451 2 9 8 11 0 39 64 44 110

2005 370 0 17 18 10 0 30 0 65 74

2006 283 28 14 0 40 0 20 0 63 0

2007 112 74 32 0 24 0 18 0 28 0

2008 19 0 6 0 0 0 20 0 0 0

2009 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

2010 7 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2011 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2012 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0

2013 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2014 1 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2015 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2016 118 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2017 98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Source: U. S. Bureau of the Census. Current Construction Reports. Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits.

17

Figure 2A

Number of Units Sold and Median Sales Price of Homes in Municipalities Served by District 227

Matteson

Units Sold

Median Sales Price

18

Figure 2B


Olympia Fields

Units Sold

Median Sales Price

19

Figure 2C


Park Forest

Units Sold

Median Sales Price

20

Figure 2D


Richton Park

Units Sold

Median Sales Price

21

Figure 2E


Country Club Hills

Units Sold

Median Sales Price

Source: Adapted from Trulia.com

22


Enrollment Trends and Student Migration/Transfer

Enrollment in local public schools mirrored community housing and

population dynamics. Total elementary and high school enrollments

mushroomed in the 1950s and 1960s. Enrollment growth in the combined

elementary foundation school districts slowed during the 1970s, with actual

declines occurring in the late 1970s. These declines continued until the mid-

1980s, at which point aggregate elementary district enrollments roughly

stabilized through the mid-1990s, when overall elementary district enrollments

again began to climb. Between school years 1995–96 and 2006–07, total

foundation elementary district enrollment expanded from 6,840 students to 8,835

students. Since school year 2006–07, overall declines have characterized

combined foundation district enrollment, with their (aggregate) total enrollment

standing at 7,439 this past fall.

With an expected lag, Rich Township High School District 227 enrollment

generally followed aggregate elementary district enrollment trends. Table 5

shows that District 227 enrollment rose from 3,281 students in 1966–67 to 4,324

students in 1974–75. It then dropped to 3,666 students in 1983–84 before

reversing and rising to 3,986 students in 1986–87. This was followed by a decline

to 3,137 students in 1999–2000. For the next eight years, total District enrollment

23


consistently climbed, reaching 4,287 students in 2007–08. Total high school

enrollment then generally declined through this school years (2017–18) when

3,352 students were registered.

Determinants of Enrollment Change

School districts are open demographic systems whose growth, stability, or

decline is affected by two basic factors. The first is the difference between the size

of the kindergarten (or for the high school district, ninth grade) class that enters

each September and the size of the previous June's graduating class (either

eighth or twelfth grade). The second is the net migration/transfer of school-age

children in each district as they progress through the grades over the years.

Tables 6, 7, and 8 show how annual total enrollment change in the

combined foundation elementary districts that feed students to District 227 may

be decomposed into these two component parts since school year 1995–96.

Table 6 provides the grade-by-grade and year-by-year combined enrollment for

the public elementary feeder districts. Table 7 decomposes the annual total

enrollment changes into the two component parts. Thus, between September

2016 (school year 2016–17) and September 2017 (school year 2017–18) combined

foundation districts enrollment declined by 39 students (7,478 to 7,439; see

Table 6). The 945 eighth graders who left the foundation elementary districts in

June 2017 (see Table 6) were replaced this past September by just 702

24


kindergarten students, for a net class size difference of 243. However, 204 more−

students either migrated to the foundation districts or transferred from private or

parochial schools than migrated out of the foundation districts or transferred to

private or parochial schools between September 2016 and September 2017. As

Table 7 reveals, there has actually been a strong positive net student migration

and transfer to District 227's foundation districts since September 1995.

Table 8 shows the grade-by-grade, year-by-year migration/transfer

figures for the combined elementary school districts. For example, the “68” at the

bottom of the K–1 column means that as the kindergarten class of school year

2016–17 progressed to the first grade in school year 2017–18, it gained 68

students via migration or transfer (see Table 6 where this class grew from 673 to

741 as it progressed upward one grade level). In addition, as the first grade class

of 2016–17 (715 students) progressed to the second grade in 2017–18 (737

students), it gained 22 students. Summing across the bottom row of Table 8

provides the K–8 net student migration/transfer between September 2016 and

September 2017, which is +204.

Observe that positive net student migration/transfer has characterized

virtually all grade levels in the elementary foundation districts between 1995 and

2017. This means that any annual declines in the aggregate foundation district

enrollment were caused by relatively larger graduating eighth-grade classes

compared with the following year's entering kindergarten class sizes.

25


Appendix A provides enrollment histories by year and by grade from

school years 1995–96 to 2017–18 for each elementary foundation district. It also

presents the decomposition of annual sources of enrollment change for each

district and their annual migration/transfer figures. These tables should be

interpreted in the same manner as Tables 6, 7, and 8 for the aggregated

foundation school districts.

Tables 9, 10, and 11 show how annual total enrollment change in Rich

Township High School District 227 since September 1995 may be decomposed

into the two component parts, plus special education from 1995 to 2002. Table 9

presents the annual combined enrollment by grade for District 227 since school

year 1995–96. For example, between September 2016 (school year 2016–17) and

September 2017 (school year 2017–18), District 227 enrollment declined by 17

students (from 3,369 to 3,352). The 688 twelfth graders who left the District in

June 2017 were replaced this past September by 916 ninth graders for a net class

size difference of +228. However, between September 2016 and September 2017,

245 more high school students either migrated out of District 227, transferred to

private or parochial schools, or dropped out than either migrated into the

District or transferred from private or parochial schools (see Table 10). Summing

these two components (+228, 245) gives the exact 17 enrollment change − −

between September 2016 and September 2017.

26


Table 11 describes how the net student migration/transfer (including

dropouts and heldbacks) losses were computed from the enrollment data. Again,

the bottom left cell of “ 202” means that as the ninth grade class of September −

2016 progressed to the tenth grade in September 2017, it declined by 202 students

(see Table 9 where ninth grade class size in school year 2016–17 was 898 and the

tenth grade class size in school year 2017–18 is 696 students). Similarly, as the

tenth grade class of September 2016 progressed to the eleventh grade in

September 2017, it dropped by 90 students, while the twelfth grade class this

year is actually 47 students larger than last year's eleventh grade class. Summing

across the bottom row in Table 11, one obtains 245, which is the net student −

migration/transfer and dropout loss shown in Table 10.

Tables 12 through 20 provide grade-by-grade enrollment histories and the

decomposition of annual enrollment change since school year 1995–96 at Central

High School, East High School, and South High School, along with the annual

grade-by-grade migration/transfer analysis for each high school. The

decomposition and migration/transfer tables should be interpreted the same as

Tables 10 and 11 for the combined high schools.

Table 21 presents enrollment at the Phoenix campus. This is a special case

school with only four years of enrollment history. Since it was closed in 2006, no

decomposition of annual sources of enrollment change or net annual student

migration/transfer tables are presented for Phoenix.

27

Table 5

Enrollment History of Rich Township High School District 227: 1966–67 to 2017–18

School Year 9 10 11 12 K–12 Other Total

1966–67 965 816 792 708 3,281 [21] 3,281

1967–68 892 921 788 762 3,363 [27] 3,363

1968–69 1,035 879 917 761 3,592 [33] 3,592

1969–70 1,047 1,019 862 878 3,806 [25] 3,806

1970–71 1,094 1,063 1,022 840 4,019 [42] 4,019

1971–72 1,197 1,114 1,049 944 4,304 [58] 4,304

1972–73 1,118 1,139 1,042 958 4,257 [65] 4,257

1973–74 1,119 1,094 1,091 961 4,265 [70] 4,265

1974–75 1,129 1,101 1,087 1,007 4,324 [65] 4,324

1975–76 1,071 1,082 1,051 980 4,184 [163] 4,184

1976–77 1,035 1,100 1,093 990 4,218 [143] 4,218

1977–78 1,047 1,043 1,132 989 4,211 [126] 4,211

1978–79 1,094 1,087 1,025 1,029 4,235 [145] 4,235

1979–80 999 1,088 1,074 973 4,134 [87] 4,134

1980–81 945 967 1,065 999 3,976 [84] 3,976

1981–82 925 937 951 982 3,795 [76] 3,795

1982–83 979 923 882 867 3,651 [65] 3,651

1983–84 923 941 919 883 3,666 [44] 3,666

1984–85 1,115 928 943 913 3,899 [41] 3,899

1985–86 1,001 1,081 911 892 3,885 73 3,958

1986–87 938 1,006 1,047 896 3,887 99 3,986

1987–88 818 933 984 1,013 3,748 165 3,913

1988–89 857 855 903 955 3,570 131 3,701

1989–90 835 837 844 907 3,423 78 3,501

Continued. . .

28

Table 5―Continued

Enrollment History of Rich Township High School District 227: 1966–67 to 2017–18

School Year 9 10 11 12 K–12 Other Total

1990–91 901 853 835 845 3,434 109 3,543

1991–92 896 906 829 794 3,425 113 3,538

1992–93 817 897 882 835 3,431 113 3,544

1993–94 879 808 865 864 3,416 135 3,551

1994–95 862 882 765 832 3,341 146 3,487

1995–96 861 895 859 712 3,327 145 3,472

1996–97 745 823 884 836 3,288 170 3,458

1997–98 800 770 794 743 3,107 178 3,285

1998–99 798 714 731 772 3,015 203 3,218

1999–00 782 777 670 688 2,917 220 3,137

2000–01 805 813 772 638 3,028 255 3,283

2001–02 823 790 794 665 3,072 271 3,343

2002–03 926 885 850 765 3,426 0 3,426

2003–04 961 908 845 820 3,534 0 3,534

2004–05 1,043 988 859 812 3,702 0 3,702

2005–06 1,114 1,037 957 854 3,962 0 3,962

2006–07 1,124 1,116 1,027 923 4,190 0 4,190

2007–08 1,050 1,084 1,187 966 4,287 0 4,287

2008–09 1,291 1,215 701 925 4,132 0 4,132

2009–10 1,343 1,198 655 921 4,117 0 4,117

2010–11 1,132 1,407 751 729 4,019 0 4,019

2011–12 1,031 1,056 978 777 3,842 0 3,842

2012–13 1,271 931 916 868 3,986 0 3,986

2013–14 1,147 924 813 724 3,608 0 3,608

2014–15 1,148 851 773 675 3,447 0 3,447

2015–16 1,247 908 739 703 3,597 0 3,597

2016–17 898 941 842 688 3,369 0 3,369

2017–18 916 696 851 889 3,352 0 3,352

29

Table 6

Enrollment History of Combined Elementary Districts Served by Rich Township High School District 227: 1995–96 to 2017–18

SchoolYear

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K–8

1995–96 710 740 765 746 789 762 791 718 819 6,840

1996–97 634 809 784 787 765 814 761 821 727 6,902

1997–98 666 758 817 817 836 780 833 813 837 7,157

1998–99 700 776 770 834 818 850 808 835 821 7,212

1999–00 741 834 808 834 931 834 907 827 870 7,586

2000–01 730 832 837 868 913 963 872 927 845 7,787

2001–02 726 832 837 896 915 938 969 905 938 7,956

2002–03 734 810 886 888 907 962 974 1,006 929 8,096

2003–04 736 860 861 902 938 912 972 1,044 1,016 8,241

2004–05 710 929 866 908 989 1,021 1,014 1,041 1,104 8,582

2005–06 744 861 975 905 977 1,094 1,096 1,100 1,059 8,811

2006–07 821 846 877 1,012 940 1,024 1,101 1,125 1,089 8,835

2007–08 738 897 876 885 977 991 1,030 1,098 1,099 8,591

2008–09 698 816 887 892 864 973 974 1,035 1,101 8,240

2009–10 810 828 851 941 903 936 1,014 1,041 1,069 8,393

2010–11 735 862 823 844 974 925 950 1,042 1,049 8,204

2011–12 712 811 843 829 877 993 925 932 1,047 7,969

2012–13 753 800 844 881 858 907 1,007 980 990 8,020

2013–14 750 809 807 843 879 848 907 1,034 996 7,873

2014–15 717 752 837 823 834 890 893 910 1,070 7,726

2015–16 682 754 793 862 832 864 906 907 927 7,527

2016–17 673 715 770 842 860 848 893 932 945 7,478

2017–18 702 741 737 832 842 851 880 908 946 7,439

30

Table 7

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change in Combined Elementary Districts Served by Rich Township High School District 227:

September 1995 to September 2017

Transition YearSept. to Sept.

ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering Kvs.

Exiting 8

Net AnnualMigration/Transfer

1995 to 96 62 −185 247

1996 to 97 255 −61 316

1997 to 98 55 −137 192

1998 to 99 374 −80 454

1999 to 00 201 −140 341

2000 to 01 169 −119 288

2001 to 02 140 −204 344

2002 to 03 145 −193 338

2003 to 04 341 −306 647

2004 to 05 229 −360 589

2005 to 06 24 −238 262

2006 to 07 −244 −351 107

2007 to 08 −351 −401 50

2008 to 09 153 −291 444

2009 to 10 −189 −334 145

2010 to 11 −235 −337 102

2011 to 12 51 −294 345

2012 to 13 −147 −240 93

2013 to 14 −147 −279 132

2014 to 15 −199 −388 189

2015 to 16 −49 −254 205

2016 to 17 −39 −243 204

31

Table 8

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer in Combined Elementary Districts Served by Rich Township High School District 227:



Grade Transition

K–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5–6 6–7 7–8 Total

1995 to 96 99 44 22 19 25 −1 30 9 247

1996 to 97 124 8 33 49 15 19 52 16 316

1997 to 98 110 12 17 1 14 28 2 8 192

1998 to 99 134 32 64 97 16 57 19 35 454

1999 to 00 91 3 60 79 32 38 20 18 341

2000 to 01 102 5 59 47 25 6 33 11 288

2001 to 02 84 54 51 11 47 36 37 24 344

2002 to 03 126 51 16 50 5 10 70 10 338

2003 to 04 193 6 47 87 83 102 69 60 647

2004 to 05 151 46 39 69 105 75 86 18 589

2005 to 06 102 16 37 35 47 7 29 −11 262

2006 to 07 76 30 8 −35 51 6 −3 −26 107

2007 to 08 78 −10 16 −21 −4 −17 5 3 50

2008 to 09 130 35 54 11 72 41 67 34 444

2009 to 10 52 −5 −7 33 22 14 28 8 145

2010 to 11 76 −19 6 33 19 0 −18 5 102

2011 to 12 88 33 38 29 30 14 55 58 345

2012 to 13 56 7 −1 −2 −10 0 27 16 93

2013 to 14 2 28 16 −9 11 45 3 36 132

2014 to 15 37 41 25 9 30 16 14 17 189

2015 to 16 33 16 49 −2 16 29 26 38 205

2016 to 17 68 22 62 0 −9 32 15 14 204

32

Table 9

Enrollment History of Rich Township High School District 227:1990–91 to 2017–18

School Year

9 10 11 12 9–12 Sp. Ed. Total

1995–96 861 895 859 712 3,327 145 3,472

1996–97 745 823 884 836 3,288 170 3,458

1997–98 800 770 794 743 3,107 178 3,285

1998–99 798 714 731 772 3,015 203 3,218

1999–00 782 777 670 688 2,917 220 3,137

2000–01 805 813 772 638 3,028 255 3,283

2001–02 823 790 794 665 3,072 271 3,343

2002–03 926 885 850 765 3,426 0 3,426

2003–04 961 908 845 820 3,534 0 3,534

2004–05 1,043 988 859 812 3,702 0 3,702

2005–06 1,114 1,037 957 854 3,962 0 3,962

2006–07 1,124 1,116 1,027 923 4,190 0 4,190

2007–08 1,050 1,084 1,187 966 4,287 0 4,287

2008–09 1,291 1,215 701 925 4,132 0 4,132

2009–10 1,343 1,198 655 921 4,117 0 4,117

2010–11 1,132 1,407 751 729 4,019 0 4,019

2011–12 1,031 1,056 978 777 3,842 0 3,842

2012–13 1,271 931 916 868 3,986 0 3,986

2013–14 1,147 924 813 724 3,608 0 3,608

2014–15 1,148 851 773 675 3,447 0 3,447

2015–16 1,247 908 739 703 3,597 0 3,597

2016–17 898 941 842 688 3,369 0 3,369

2017–18 916 696 851 889 3,352 0 3,352

33

Table 10

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change inRich Township High School District 227:



ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering 9vs.

Exiting 12


ChangeSp. Ed.

1995 to 96 −14 33 −72 25

1996 to 97 −173 −36 −145 8

1997 to 98 −67 55 −147 25

1998 to 99 −81 10 −108 17

1999 to 00 146 117 −6 35

2000 to 01 60 185 −141 16

2001 to 02 83 261 93 −271

2002 to 03 108 196 −88 0

2003 to 04 168 223 −55 0

2004 to 05 260 302 −42 0

2005 to 06 228 270 −42 0

2006 to 07 97 127 −30 0

2007 to 08 −155 325 −480 0

2008 to 09 −15 418 −433 0

2009 to 10 −98 211 −309 0

2010 to 11 −177 302 −479 0

2011 to 12 144 494 −350 0

2012 to 13 −378 279 −657 0

2013 to 14 −161 424 −585 0

2014 to 15 150 572 −422 0

2015 to 16 −228 195 −423 0

2016 to 17 −17 228 −245 0

34

Table 11

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer inRich Township High School District 227:



Grade Transition

9–10 10–11 11–12 Total

1995 to 96 −38 −11 −23 −72

1996 to 97 25 −29 −141 −145

1997 to 98 −86 −39 −22 −147

1998 to 99 −21 −44 −43 −108

1999 to 00 31 −5 −32 −6

2000 to 01 −15 −19 −107 −141

2001 to 02 62 60 −29 93

2002 to 03 −18 −40 −30 −88

2003 to 04 27 −49 −33 −55

2004 to 05 −6 −31 −5 −42

2005 to 06 2 −10 −34 −42

2006 to 07 −40 71 −61 −30

2007 to 08 165 −383 −262 −480

2008 to 09 −93 −560 220 −433

2009 to 10 64 −447 74 −309

2010 to 11 −76 −429 26 −479

2011 to 12 −100 −140 −110 −350

2012 to 13 −347 −118 −192 −657

2013 to 14 −296 −151 −138 −585

2014 to 15 −240 −112 −70 −422

2015 to 16 −306 −66 −51 −423

2016 to 17 −202 −90 47 −245

35

Table 12


Central High School

School Year

9 10 11 12 9–12 Sp. Ed. Total

1995–96 258 252 274 203 987 37 1,024

1996–97 222 257 244 269 992 39 1,031

1997–98 267 230 264 205 966 47 1,013

1998–99 222 243 244 259 968 49 1,017

1999–00 270 208 248 225 951 45 996

2000–01 282 283 229 234 1,028 63 1,091

2001–02 277 276 275 210 1,038 68 1,106

2002–03 302 284 288 266 1,140 — 1,140

2003–04 339 301 283 275 1,198 — 1,198

2004–05 384 342 305 285 1,316 — 1,316

2005–06 421 374 324 300 1,419 — 1,419

2006–07 412 417 379 324 1,532 — 1,532

2007–08 407 407 461 350 1,625 — 1,625

2008–09 480 433 349 288 1,550 — 1,550

2009–10 498 454 281 344 1,577 — 1,577

2010–11 427 506 268 302 1,503 — 1,503

2011–12 380 424 340 302 1,446 — 1,446

2012–13 457 348 391 343 1,539 — 1,539

2013–14 351 331 288 307 1,277 — 1,277

2014–15 420 319 269 275 1,283 — 1,283

2015–16 449 330 248 250 1,277 — 1,277

2016–17 353 335 289 253 1,230 — 1,230

2017–18 364 250 312 293 1,219 — 1,219

36

Table 13



Central High School


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering 9vs.

Exiting 12


ChangeSp. Ed.

1995 to 96 7 19 −14 2

1996 to 97 −18 −2 −24 8

1997 to 98 4 17 −15 2

1998 to 99 −21 11 −28 −4

1999 to 00 95 57 20 18

2000 to 01 15 43 −33 5

2001 to 02 34 92 10 −68

2002 to 03 58 73 −15 0

2003 to 04 118 109 9 0

2004 to 05 103 136 −33 0

2005 to 06 113 112 1 0

2006 to 07 93 83 10 0

2007 to 08 −75 130 −205 0

2008 to 09 27 210 −183 0

2009 to 10 −74 83 −157 0

2010 to 11 −57 78 −135 0

2011 to 12 93 155 −62 0

2012 to 13 −262 8 −270 0

2013 to 14 6 113 −107 0

2014 to 15 −6 174 −180 0

2015 to 16 −47 103 −150 0

2016 to 17 −11 111 −122 0

37

Table 14



Central High School


Grade Transition

9–10 10–11 11–12 Total

1995 to 96 −1 −8 −5 −14

1996 to 97 8 7 −39 −24

1997 to 98 −24 14 −5 −15

1998 to 99 −14 5 −19 −28

1999 to 00 13 21 −14 20

2000 to 01 −6 −8 −19 −33

2001 to 02 7 12 −9 10

2002 to 03 −1 −1 −13 −15

2003 to 04 3 4 2 9

2004 to 05 −10 −18 −5 −33

2005 to 06 −4 5 0 1

2006 to 07 −5 44 −29 10

2007 to 08 26 −58 −173 −205

2008 to 09 −26 −152 −5 −183

2009 to 10 8 −186 21 −157

2010 to 11 −3 −166 34 −135

2011 to 12 −32 −33 3 −62

2012 to 13 −126 −60 −84 −270

2013 to 14 −32 −62 −13 −107

2014 to 15 −90 −71 −19 −180

2015 to 16 −114 −41 5 −150

2016 to 17 −103 −23 4 −122

38

Table 15


East High School

School Year

9 10 11 12 9–12 Sp. Ed. Total

1995–96 353 360 305 245 1,263 76 1,339

1996–97 290 316 361 296 1,263 91 1,354

1997–98 331 281 287 267 1,166 91 1,257

1998–99 298 289 233 280 1,100 95 1,195

1999–00 278 290 233 234 1,035 108 1,143

2000–01 258 290 277 213 1,038 124 1,162

2001–02 260 243 240 245 988 138 1,126

2002–03 345 323 268 256 1,192 — 1,192

2003–04 323 321 287 266 1,197 — 1,197

2004–05 334 326 271 272 1,203 — 1,203

2005–06 367 323 311 274 1,275 — 1,275

2006–07 361 373 303 312 1,349 — 1,349

2007–08 313 322 391 284 1,310 — 1,310

2008–09 351 419 135 345 1,250 — 1,250

2009–10 384 355 158 254 1,151 — 1,151

2010–11 348 421 202 202 1,173 — 1,173

2011–12 342 316 296 194 1,148 — 1,148

2012–13 409 306 234 219 1,168 — 1,168

2013–14 400 310 256 179 1,145 — 1,145

2014–15 332 302 233 187 1,054 — 1,054

2015–16 431 295 247 192 1,165 — 1,165

2016–17 226 326 272 209 1,033 — 1,033

2017–18 267 217 273 280 1,037 — 1,037

39

Table 16



East High School


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering 9vs.

Exiting 12


ChangeSp. Ed.

1995 to 96 15 45 −45 15

1996 to 97 −97 35 −132 0

1997 to 98 −62 31 −97 4

1998 to 99 −52 −2 −63 13

1999 to 00 19 24 −21 16

2000 to 01 −36 47 −97 14

2001 to 02 66 100 104 −138

2002 to 03 5 67 −62 0

2003 to 04 6 68 −62 0

2004 to 05 72 95 −23 0

2005 to 06 74 87 −13 0

2006 to 07 −39 1 −40 0

2007 to 08 −60 67 −127 0

2008 to 09 −99 39 −138 0

2009 to 10 22 94 −72 0

2010 to 11 −25 140 −165 0

2011 to 12 20 215 −195 0

2012 to 13 −23 181 −204 0

2013 to 14 −91 153 −244 0

2014 to 15 111 244 −133 0

2015 to 16 −132 34 −166 0

2016 to 17 4 58 −54 0

40

Table 17



East High School


Grade Transition

9–10 10–11 11–12 Total

1995 to 96 −37 1 −9 −45

1996 to 97 −9 −29 −94 −132

1997 to 98 −42 −48 −7 −97

1998 to 99 −8 −56 1 −63

1999 to 00 12 −13 −20 −21

2000 to 01 −15 −50 −32 −97

2001 to 02 63 25 16 104

2002 to 03 −24 −36 −2 −62

2003 to 04 3 −50 −15 −62

2004 to 05 −11 −15 3 −23

2005 to 06 6 −20 1 −13

2006 to 07 −39 18 −19 −40

2007 to 08 106 −187 −46 −127

2008 to 09 4 −261 119 −138

2009 to 10 37 −153 44 −72

2010 to 11 −32 −125 −8 −165

2011 to 12 −36 −82 −77 −195

2012 to 13 −99 −50 −55 −204

2013 to 14 −98 −77 −69 −244

2014 to 15 −37 −55 −41 −133

2015 to 16 −105 −23 −38 −166

2016 to 17 −9 −53 8 −54

41

Table 18


South High School

School Year

9 10 11 12 9–12 Sp. Ed. Total

1995–96 250 283 280 264 1,077 32 1,109

1996–97 233 250 279 271 1,033 40 1,073

1997–98 202 259 243 271 975 40 1,015

1998–99 278 182 254 233 947 59 1,006

1999–00 234 279 189 229 931 67 998

2000–01 265 240 266 191 962 68 1,030

2001–02 286 271 279 210 1,046 65 1,111

2002–03 278 263 271 221 1,033 — 1,033

2003–04 299 274 245 248 1,066 — 1,066

2004–05 325 306 254 222 1,107 — 1,107

2005–06 326 328 288 250 1,192 — 1,192

2006–07 351 326 345 287 1,309 — 1,309

2007–08 330 355 335 332 1,352 — 1,352

2008–09 460 363 217 292 1,332 — 1,332

2009–10 461 389 216 323 1,389 — 1,389

2010–11 357 480 281 225 1,343 — 1,343

2011–12 309 316 342 281 1,248 — 1,248

2012–13 405 277 291 306 1,279 — 1,279

2013–14 396 283 269 238 1,186 — 1,186

2014–15 396 230 271 213 1,110 — 1,110

2015–16 367 283 244 261 1,155 — 1,155

2016–17 319 280 281 226 1,106 — 1,106

2017–18 285 229 266 316 1,096 — 1,096

42

Table 19



South High School


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering 9vs.

Exiting 12


ChangeSp. Ed.

1995 to 96 −36 −31 −13 8

1996 to 97 −58 −69 11 0

1997 to 98 −9 7 −35 19

1998 to 99 −8 1 −17 8

1999 to 00 32 36 −5 1

2000 to 01 81 95 −11 −3

2001 to 02 −78 68 −81 −65

2002 to 03 33 78 −45 0

2003 to 04 41 77 −36 0

2004 to 05 85 104 −19 0

2005 to 06 117 101 16 0

2006 to 07 43 43 0 0

2007 to 08 −20 128 −148 0

2008 to 09 57 169 −112 0

2009 to 10 −46 34 −80 0

2010 to 11 −95 84 −179 0

2011 to 12 31 124 −93 0

2012 to 13 −93 90 −183 0

2013 to 14 −76 158 −234 0

2014 to 15 45 154 −109 0

2015 to 16 −49 58 −107 0

2016 to 17 −10 59 −69 0

43

Table 20



South High School


Grade Transition

9–10 10–11 11–12 Total

1995 to 96 0 −4 −9 −13

1996 to 97 26 −7 −8 11

1997 to 98 −20 −5 −10 −35

1998 to 99 1 7 −25 −17

1999 to 00 6 −13 2 −5

2000 to 01 6 39 −56 −11

2001 to 02 −23 0 −58 −81

2002 to 03 −4 −18 −23 −45

2003 to 04 7 −20 −23 −36

2004 to 05 3 −18 −4 −19

2005 to 06 0 17 −1 16

2006 to 07 4 9 −13 0

2007 to 08 33 −138 −43 −148

2008 to 09 −71 −147 106 −112

2009 to 10 19 −108 9 −80

2010 to 11 −41 −138 0 −179

2011 to 12 −32 −25 −36 −93

2012 to 13 −122 −8 −53 −183

2013 to 14 −166 −12 −56 −234

2014 to 15 −113 14 −10 −109

2015 to 16 −87 −2 −18 −107

2016 to 17 −90 −14 35 −69

44

Table 21


Phoenix Campus

School Year

9 10 11 12 9–12 Sp. Ed. Total

1995–96 — — — — — — —

1996–97 — — — — — — —

1997–98 — — — — — — —

1998–99 — — — — — — —

1999–00 — — — — — — —

2000–01 — — — — — — —

2001–02 — — — — — — —

2002–03 1 15 23 22 61 0 61

2003–04 0 12 30 31 73 0 73

2004–05 0 14 29 33 76 0 76

2005–06 0 12 34 30 76 0 76

2006–07 — — — — — — —

2007–08 — — — — — — —

2008–09 — — — — — — —

2009–10 — — — — — — —

2010–11 — — — — — — —

2011–12 — — — — — — —

2012–13 — — — — — — —

2013–14 — — — — — — —

2014–15 — — — — — — —

2015–16 — — — — — — —

2016–17 — — — — — — —

2017–18 — — — — — — —

45


The Enrollment Future of the School Districts

I now turn to the critical issue of what will happen to future enrollment in

each of the K–8 foundation districts and Rich Township High School District 227

over the next ten years. My analysis of the latest census and American

Community Survey data for Rich Township communities, the age distribution of

home owners in these communities, student migration/transfer and dropout

patterns, recent kindergarten counts in the foundation districts, and the expected

continuing modest recovery of the housing market implies that most K–8 school

districts in Rich Township will decline slightly in total enrollment during the

coming decade. Only Elementary School District 159 is projected to be stable.

Total District 227 high school enrollment will drop by almost 500 students by

2027(with Central High School dropping by 203 students, East High School by

187, and South High School by 104 students.

Table 22 provides information on the number of births to residents for

each of the main communities served by the foundation districts and District 227

from 1980 through 2015. Observe that aggregate births in the combined villages

declined between 2007 and 2015 (the last year for which birth data are available).

Although there was a modest uptick in aggregate birth to village residents in

2015, the 811 figure remained well below annual births prior to 2009.

46


Buffering declines in resident births has been housing turnover to younger

families. Table 3 showed that a growing number of Rich Township residents are

past traditional retirement age (over age 65). As the housing market continues to

recover, this should lead to solid rates of “empty nest” housing turnover to

attract younger families with preschool and school-age children in the villages.

Overall, I expect positive net student migration in the K–8 grades in the decade

ahead, though its strength will vary among the elementary school districts.

Since the District 227 area is basically built out, new housing development

will have a negligible impact compared to housing turnover. Other than

Elementary School District 159, where 10–20 new single-family housing units are

expected to be constructed annually over the next five years plus some multi-

family unit construction, most new housing construction is anticipated to be

teardowns and replacements. For example, official in Park Forest expect

approximately 100 teardowns over the next several years.

Population and household forecasts for the villages were last updated by

the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (formerly Northeastern Illinois

Planning Commission) in October 2014. These forecasts, presented in Table 23,

suggest that Matteson could experience considerable growth over the coming

decades, with more modest increments expected in other High School District

227 communities.

47

Table 22

Births to Residents of MunicipalitiesServed by Rich Township High School District 227:1980 to 2015

Year MattesonOlympia Fields

Park Forest Richton ParkCountry Club

HillsSum

1980 190 22 409 223 288 11321981 206 30 373 196 249 10541982 207 16 381 181 252 10371983 189 19 371 137 196 9121984 204 27 393 172 193 9891985 193 30 347 142 210 9221986 176 30 347 138 180 8711987 183 33 334 123 207 8801988 183 40 355 141 217 9361989 185 34 336 164 199 9181990 175 40 366 188 212 9811991 192 42 318 167 211 9301992 168 44 339 165 244 9601993 188 33 338 176 246 9811994 189 38 303 171 284 9851995 170 36 338 181 261 9861996 179 39 309 175 195 8971997 161 41 282 172 220 8761998 171 38 285 190 226 9101999 153 31 284 165 206 8392000 167 22 281 220 231 9212001 182 32 266 195 197 8722002 166 27 299 167 237 8962003 195 39 312 187 232 9652004 219 21 272 173 223 9082005 214 36 266 169 219 9042006 241 25 260 183 205 9142007 248 27 287 166 227 9552008 237 36 269 195 208 9452009 217 27 231 145 182 8022010 221 25 235 142 206 8292011 210 35 231 163 206 8452012 194 22 227 147 207 7972013 213 24 245 139 170 7912014 183 24 254 152 159 7722015 195 30 252 159 175 811

Source: Illinois Department of Health. Automated Vital Records System, 1980–2006.Cook County Department of Public Health, 2007–2015.

48

Table 23

Population and Households Forecasts for Municipalities Served byRich Township High School District 227: 2010 to 2040

Population

Municipality 2010 2040 Change Percent Change

Matteson 19,009 39,733 20,724 109.02

Olympia Fields 4,988 7,737 2,749 55.11

Park Forest 21,975 26,580 4,605 20.96

Richton Park 13,646 22,149 8,503 62.31

Country Club Hills 16,541 21,746 5,205 31.47

Households

Municipality 2010 2040 Change Percent Change

Matteson 6,735 14,529 7,794 115.72

Olympia Fields 1,951 2,995 1,044 53.51

Park Forest 8,750 10,817 2,067 23.62

Richton Park 4,997 8,539 3,542 70.88

Country Club Hills 5,662 7,531 1,869 33.01

Source: a Bureau of the Census. Decennial Census of Population and Housing, 2010.Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning 2040Forecast of Population, Households and Employment.October 10, 2014.

49


Projection Methodology

In projecting enrollment for the K–8 foundation districts and Rich

Township High Schools, two sets of interrelated factors play central causal roles.

The first is future fertility rates and resulting average family sizes. Any changes

in fertility rates during the next five years will not affect middle school or high

school enrollments until after 2027, nor the elementary schools until after 2023.

This is because the children who will be reaching kindergarten during the next

five years are already born, as are those who will reach sixth grade and above

through school year 2027–28. Fertility rate changes during the next five years

could affect some elementary school enrollments beginning with school year

2024–25. However, recent demographic surveys of young adults (regardless of

race or ethnicity) do not lead one to expect significant changes in their fertility

rates during the next five years. For this reason, all projections will assume that

fertility rates (and average family sizes) will remain roughly at existing levels

through the year 2023.

This does not mean that future kindergarten classes in some cases will not

fluctuate in size, however. Such gains or losses could result from increased or

decreased housing turnover from older “empty nesters” to younger families with

preschool children. Thus, while new housing development will play a negligible

role, turnover of existing housing (including teardowns and replacements) will

50


be important. My baseline assumption is that, given the current householder age

distribution, housing turnover over the next ten years will compensate for lower

preschool population counts and (given the housing affordability) continue to be

attractive to families with preschool and school-age children during the coming

decade.

Recognizing, however, that future events (e.g., increases in mortgage

interest rates, federal tax laws, another recession or perhaps strong growth in the

national and Chicago area economy) could significantly alter housing turnover

and resulting in-migration of families with preschool and school-age children,

three separate series of enrollment projections were made, based on different

assumptions about these dynamics:

Series A Assumes that future fertility rates remain at present levels and that future rates of housing turnover (including teardowns) and in-migration of families with preschool and school-age children are less than currently anticipated;

Series B Assumes that future fertility rates remain at present levels and that future rates of housing turnover (including teardowns) and in-migration of families with preschool and school-age children occur as currently anticipated;

Series C Assumes that future fertility rates remain at present levels and that future rates of housing turnover (including teardowns) and in-migration of families with preschool and school-age children are greater than currently anticipated.

Enrollment projections, by grade and by year, will be provided for each

K–8 foundation district through school year 2027–28 as well as for District 227

51


high schools. Series A, Series B and Series C projections will be provided in all

instances.

The basic methodology used to make the three series of enrollment

projections is a modified cohort survival procedure. Average cohort survival

factors were computed for each grade transition in each district for the past four

years. These factors reflect the figures shown in the net student migration/

transfer tables for each district. The average survival factors were then adjusted

for perturbations (major inconsistencies in a given year) and applied to compute

baseline enrollment projections (via conventional cohort survival techniques)

using actual 2017–18 enrollments provided to me each district as the base. The

sizes of the entering kindergarten classes through 2027–28 were estimated using

recent trends in kindergarten enrollment (again, adjusted for perturbations),

estimated births to residents of the villages served by each district, and

anticipated future student migration/transfer patterns in each district.

The last five years have seen considerable fluctuations in entering

kindergarten enrollments in a number of foundation elementary school districts.

Under these fluctuating circumstances, forecasting future kindergarten

enrollment for a particular elementary school district can be tricky. In my

Series B kindergarten forecasts, I have incorporated my best professional

judgment to baseline information gathered on village births, student migration/

52


transfer, etc. to determine if a fluctuation is out of line and I have adjudicated

future kindergarten estimates accordingly for Series B.

In making the Series B projections, the cohort survival factors were

likewise modified slightly to take into account single year fluctuations in

migration and student transfer rates. The Series A projections were made in a

similar manner except that cohort survival factors were deflated and entering

kindergarten classes reduced to take into account the possibility that future

conditions such as another recession or rising mortgage interest rates would

reduce housing turnover and in-migration of younger families with preschool

and school-age children to each district. Conversely, Series C projections inflate

the cohort survival factors over the grades and further raise the number of future

kindergarten students entering schools in each K–8 foundation district to account

for the possibility of continuing low mortgage interest rates and/or more

favorable tax and economic conditions that would result in accelerated housing

turnover and greater in-migration of younger families to each district. The three

series of projections thus provide the absolute minimum number of students that

may be anticipated (Series A), the most likely number of students to expect

(Series B), and the absolute maximum number of students that can possibly be

foreseen (Series C).

53


Future Enrollment in the K–8 Foundation School Districts

Elementary School District 159

Tables 24, 25 and 26 provide the Series A, Series B and Series C projections

for Elementary School District 159 where modest amounts of new single-family

housing unit construction and some multi-family unit construction are

anticipated over the coming decade. However, should new housing

development, housing turnover, and resulting future in-migration of families

with preschool and school-age children to the District 159 attendance area be less

than is currently anticipated, Table 24 shows that total enrollment will drop from

1,786 this year to 1,454 in 2023–24, then level off. If housing development,

housing turnover, and resulting family in-migration patterns evolve as

anticipated (Series B), total District 159 enrollment will inch up to 1,805 students

in 2020–21 then slip back to 1,762 students 2023–24 before inching up again in

1,790 students in 2027–28. In the event of accelerated new housing development

and turnover and resulting in-migration of younger families to the District 159

area becoming greater than currently expected (Series C), the District’s

enrollment will rapidly rise to 2,017 students in 2022–23 then stabilize near that

figure through 2027–28.

54


Country Club Hills School District 160

Enrollment projections under Series A, Series B and Series C assumptions

for Country Club Hills School District 160 are presented in Tables 27, 28, and 29,

respectively. Should reduced housing turnover and slower in-migration of

younger families to Country Club Hills occur than is currently anticipated (Series

A), enrollment will decline from 1,207 this year to 931 students in 2024–25 before

stabilizing. If housing turnover and family migration patterns occur as expected

(Series B), Table 28 shows that District 160’s enrollment will remain stable next

year then slowly decline to 1,118 students in 2024–25 and roughly stabilize just

below that number. Under assumptions of more rapid housing turnover and in-

migration of younger families than is currently anticipated, Table 29 reveals that

District 160’s enrollment will rise to 1,317 students in 2021–22 and remain near

that count through 2027–28.

Matteson School District 162

Under Series A (slowing housing turnover and student in-migration)

assumptions, Table 30 shows that total enrollment at Matteson School District

162 will drop from 2,652 students this year to 2,329 students in 2022–23 and then

stabilize through 2027–28. If housing turnover and resulting in-migration of

families with preschool and school-age children occur as expected, Table 31

55


shows that District 162’s total enrollment will drop more slowly to 2,572 students

in 2021–22 and level off through school year 2027–28. Should housing turnover

and family in-migration exceed that which is currently anticipated (Series C),

Table 32 reveals that total enrollment in District 162 will very slowly grow to

2,824 students in 2025–26, before stabilizing close to that number.

Park Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163

Should family in-migration to Park Forest–Chicago Heights School

District 163 slow below that anticipated, Series A projections (Table 33) show that

its total enrollment will decline from 1,794 students this year to 1,447 students in

2022–23 then stabilize just above that number. If family in-migration occurs as

anticipated (Series B), District 163’s total enrollment will still dip to 1,681

students in 2022–23 and then inch back up to 1,720 students in 2027–28 (see

Table 34). Should accelerated in-migration of families with preschool and school-

age children occur, Series C (Table 35) shows that total enrollment at School

District 163 will climb to 1,957 students in 2024–25 and then level off slightly

above that figure through 2027–28.

56


The Enrollment Future of Rich High School District 227

To project enrollment at each of District 227's three high schools, it was

necessary to allocate the eighth grade graduating classes from the elementary

foundation districts, private and parochial school transfers, and movers from

outside the District to the appropriate high school. This was done based on

detailed sources of ninth grade students at Central, East, and South High Schools

during the past four years provided by District 227 administrators. Transition

formulas were developed to take into account freshmen entering each high

school from the foundation districts, private or parochial schools, and other non-

public foundation district sources, as well as movers to District 227.

About ten years ago, a new student classification policy was implemented

by the Board of Education to more clearly reflect the student grade level based

on completed credit and course work before progressing to the next grade. The

policy of reclassifying students based on credits earned was reversed during the

past year. This means that if a student has been in the system for three years, he

or she is now classified as a junior, regardless of completed credits. In prior

years, if there was a credit shortage, the student may have been classified as a

sophomore or even a freshman.

57


This recent policy change created immense complications in projecting

enrollment for high school grade levels. Special synthetic cohort methods had to

be introduced to account for this policy change, so individual grade projections

at the high schools must be viewed with caution.

Tables 37,40,43, and 46 provide the annual enrollment projections for

Central, East, South, and the combined high schools by year and by grade

through school year 2027–28 under Series B (most likely) assumptions. If future

new housing development, housing turnover, and family in-migration occur as

anticipated, Table 37 shows that enrollment at Central High School will decline

from 1,219 students this year to 1,060 students in 2019–20. Central's enrollment

will then remain stable through 2023–24 before dipping slightly to 1,016 students

2027–28.

Under these same Series B assumptions, Table 40 reveals that total

enrollment at East High School will likewise decline from 1,037 this past fall to

806 in 2022–23 before inching back to 850 students in 2027–28. South High School

(Table 43), under Series B assumptions, will also drop from 1,096 students this

year to 976 students in both 2019–20 and 2020–21, then rebound to 1,059 students

in 2023–24 and slip back to 992 students in 2027–28. Combined high school

enrollment (Table 46) under the Series B assumptions (currently anticipated

future student migration) will decline from 3,352 this year to 2,882 in 2024–25,

58


then stabilize. As noted, it is my professional judgment that the Series B

projections are the most likely for District 227 high schools.

If national and local economic conditions deteriorate or mortgage interest

rates rise substantially, housing development, housing turnover and resulting

family in-migration to District 227 will likely slow. Under these more

conservative (Series A) assumptions, Table 36 indicates that enrollment at

Central High School will drop to under 900 students by 2021–22 and stay there.

Under Series A assumptions, enrollment at East High School will drop even

more sharply to less than 600 students by 2022–23 before rising slightly (see

Table 39), while South High School (Table 42) will decline to slightly less than

800 students by 2026–27. Under these conservative Series A assumptions,

Table 45 shows combined high school enrollment will decline to 2,320 students in

2026–27 then stabilize just above this number.

Under greater than anticipated housing development, housing turnover

and family in-migration assumptions (Series C), Table 38 shows that Central

High School's enrollment will be essentially stable over the next ten years. Under

these same accelerated new housing development, housing turnover and family

in-migration assumptions, East High School will slowly rise to 1,142 students in

2021–22 then dip slightly through 2027–28 (Table 41). If Series C assumptions

eventuate, South High School will grow to 1,306 students in 2022–23 then slip

back to 1,205 students in 2025–26 and level off near that student count (Table 44).

59


Combined high school enrollment, using Series C assumptions (Table 47), will

rise to 3,703 students in 2022–23 before slipping back to 3,502 students in 2027–

28. For Series C numbers to be reached, national and local economic conditions

will have to continue to improve, and mortgage interest rates remain relatively

low. To repeat, Series C is the absolute maximum number of students I can

foresee, at least in the longer term.

60


Concluding Remarks

Let me emphasize that no demographer has a crystal ball. In this report, I

have assembled the best information presently available and applied

professional techniques and judgment to generate the enrollment projections for

Rich Township High Schools and its four foundation elementary school districts.

Given dynamics in the area, these projections should be monitored and updated

regularly (approximately every two to three years) to insure that policy decisions

are based on the most current and consistently reliable figures. At this time, it is

my hope that the projections and other demographic information contained in

this report will be helpful to the foundation districts and Rich Township High

School District 227 board of education, administrators, teachers, and concerned

citizens as plans are made for future space and staff needs at their schools.

John D. Kasarda, Ph.D.San Diego, CaliforniaMay 2018

61

Table 24

Enrollment Projection Assuming that Future Fertility Rates Remain at Present Levels and that Future Rates of Housing Turnover (including Teardowns) and In-Migration of Families with Preschool and School-Age Children

Are Less Than Currently Anticipated


Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 167 148 142 140 147 143 139 141 145 141 142

1 182 171 152 146 144 151 154 150 152 156 152

2 159 182 171 152 146 144 155 158 154 156 160

3 192 156 179 168 149 143 145 156 159 155 157

4 204 193 157 180 169 150 147 149 160 163 159

5 221 205 194 158 181 170 154 151 153 164 167

6 199 226 210 199 163 186 175 159 156 158 169

7 216 206 233 217 206 170 196 185 169 166 168

8 246 233 223 250 234 223 189 215 204 188 185

Total 1,786 1,720 1,661 1,610 1,539 1,480 1,454 1,464 1,452 1,447 1,459

62

Table 25


Occur as Currently Anticipated


Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 167 171 165 162 170 165 161 164 171 166 168

1 182 180 184 178 175 183 179 175 178 185 180

2 159 188 186 190 184 181 188 184 180 183 190

3 192 161 190 188 192 186 184 191 187 183 186

4 204 198 167 196 194 198 193 191 198 194 190

5 221 210 204 173 202 200 205 200 198 205 201

6 199 232 221 215 184 213 208 213 208 206 213

7 216 211 244 233 227 196 226 221 226 221 219

8 246 242 237 270 259 253 218 248 243 248 243

Total 1,786 1,793 1,798 1,805 1,787 1,775 1,762 1,787 1,789 1,791 1,790

63

Table 26


Are Greater Than Currently Anticipated


Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 167 182 177 174 181 177 173 177 185 182 186

1 182 188 203 198 195 202 194 190 194 202 199

2 159 194 200 215 210 207 210 202 198 202 210

3 192 168 203 209 224 219 213 216 208 204 208

4 204 203 179 214 220 235 228 222 225 217 213

5 221 215 214 190 225 231 244 237 231 234 226

6 199 237 231 230 206 241 242 255 248 242 245

7 216 217 255 249 248 224 257 258 271 264 258

8 246 249 250 288 282 281 248 281 282 295 288

Total 1,786 1,853 1,912 1,967 1,991 2,017 2,009 2,038 2,042 2,042 2,033

64

Table 27




Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 91 91 95 93 89 91 88 95 89 90 88

1 99 95 95 99 97 93 98 95 102 96 97

2 131 101 97 97 101 99 95 100 97 104 98

3 123 135 105 101 101 105 103 99 104 101 108

4 153 124 136 106 102 102 107 105 101 106 103

5 130 151 122 134 104 100 102 107 105 101 106

6 163 134 155 126 138 108 104 106 111 109 105

7 165 164 135 156 127 139 112 108 110 115 113

8 152 168 167 138 159 130 143 116 112 114 119

Total 1,207 1,163 1,107 1,050 1,018 967 952 931 931 936 937

65

Table 28




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 91 100 104 102 95 98 94 102 98 100 99

1 99 100 109 113 111 104 109 105 113 109 111

2 131 105 106 115 119 117 109 114 110 118 114

3 123 139 113 114 123 127 124 116 121 117 125

4 153 128 144 118 119 128 132 129 121 126 122

5 130 156 131 147 121 122 131 135 132 124 129

6 163 139 165 140 156 130 129 138 142 139 131

7 165 169 145 171 146 162 136 135 144 148 145

8 152 173 177 153 179 154 170 144 143 152 156

Total 1,207 1,209 1,194 1,173 1,169 1,142 1,134 1,118 1,124 1,133 1,132

66

Table 29




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 91 109 114 112 106 109 104 112 108 111 110

1 99 105 123 128 126 120 122 117 125 121 124

2 131 109 115 133 138 136 127 129 124 132 128

3 123 143 121 127 145 150 145 136 138 133 141

4 153 132 152 130 136 154 157 152 143 145 140

5 130 160 139 159 137 143 159 162 157 148 150

6 163 143 173 152 172 150 152 168 171 166 157

7 165 173 153 183 162 182 159 161 177 180 175

8 152 177 185 165 195 174 192 169 171 187 190

Total 1,207 1,251 1,275 1,289 1,317 1,318 1,317 1,306 1,314 1,323 1,315

67

Table 30




Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 275 255 249 254 250 248 255 249 252 255 250

1 260 276 256 250 255 251 253 260 254 257 260

2 263 261 277 257 251 256 254 256 263 257 260

3 305 271 269 285 265 259 264 262 264 271 265

4 288 289 255 253 269 249 250 255 253 255 262

5 303 290 291 257 255 271 252 253 258 256 258

6 315 305 292 293 259 257 274 255 256 261 259

7 310 307 297 284 285 251 254 271 252 253 258

8 333 312 309 299 286 287 255 258 275 256 257

Total 2,652 2,566 2,495 2,432 2,375 2,329 2,311 2,319 2,327 2,321 2,329

68

Table 31




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 275 272 265 270 267 265 273 266 270 277 274

1 260 282 279 272 277 274 273 281 274 278 285

2 263 266 288 285 278 283 279 278 286 279 283

3 305 276 279 301 298 291 294 290 289 297 290

4 288 295 266 269 291 288 283 286 282 281 289

5 303 294 301 272 275 297 293 288 291 287 286

6 315 309 300 307 278 281 302 298 293 296 292

7 310 312 306 297 304 275 281 302 298 293 296

8 333 317 319 313 304 311 281 287 308 304 299

Total 2,652 2,623 2,603 2,586 2,572 2,565 2,559 2,576 2,591 2,592 2,594

69

Table 32




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 275 283 277 282 280 278 285 279 284 291 290

1 260 288 296 290 295 293 289 296 290 295 302

2 263 271 299 307 301 306 300 296 303 297 302

3 305 280 288 316 324 318 319 313 309 316 310

4 288 301 276 284 312 320 314 315 309 305 312

5 303 300 313 288 296 324 327 321 322 316 312

6 315 314 311 324 299 307 332 335 329 330 324

7 310 318 317 314 327 302 309 334 337 331 332

8 333 322 330 329 326 339 309 316 341 344 338

Total 2,652 2,677 2,707 2,734 2,760 2,787 2,784 2,805 2,824 2,825 2,822

70

Table 33




Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 169 162 164 160 161 162 167 161 166 161 162

1 200 178 171 173 169 170 175 180 174 179 174

2 184 197 175 168 170 166 170 175 180 174 179

3 212 184 197 175 168 170 168 172 177 182 176

4 197 203 175 188 166 159 167 165 169 174 179

5 197 185 191 163 176 154 153 161 159 163 168

6 203 186 174 180 152 165 150 149 157 155 159

7 217 199 182 170 176 148 166 151 150 158 156

8 215 194 176 159 147 153 138 156 141 140 148

Total 1,794 1,688 1,605 1,536 1,485 1,447 1,454 1,470 1,473 1,486 1,501

71

Table 34




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 169 173 175 171 170 172 179 173 180 175 177

1 200 184 188 190 186 185 188 195 189 196 191

2 184 203 187 191 193 189 188 191 198 192 199

3 212 190 209 193 197 199 194 193 196 203 197

4 197 210 188 207 191 195 198 193 192 195 202

5 197 190 203 181 200 184 191 194 189 188 191

6 203 193 186 199 177 196 182 189 192 187 186

7 217 205 195 188 201 179 199 185 192 195 190

8 215 198 186 176 169 182 171 191 177 184 187

Total 1,794 1,746 1,717 1,696 1,684 1,681 1,690 1,704 1,705 1,715 1,720

72

Table 35




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

K 169 184 187 186 185 188 195 190 197 193 195

1 200 189 204 207 206 205 205 212 207 214 210

2 184 209 198 213 216 215 210 210 217 212 219

3 212 196 221 210 225 228 222 217 217 224 219

4 197 215 199 224 213 228 230 224 219 219 226

5 197 197 215 199 224 213 227 229 223 218 218

6 203 198 198 216 200 225 214 228 230 224 219

7 217 211 206 206 224 208 231 220 234 236 230

8 215 205 199 194 194 212 204 227 216 230 232

Total 1,794 1,804 1,827 1,855 1,887 1,922 1,938 1,957 1,960 1,970 1,968

73

Table 36



Rich Township High School District 227Central High School

Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 364 349 338 334 317 314 320 297 291 303 287

10 250 249 234 223 219 202 229 235 212 206 218

11 312 195 194 179 168 164 152 179 185 162 156

12 293 296 179 178 163 152 162 150 177 183 160

Total 1,219 1,089 945 914 867 832 863 861 865 854 821

74

Table 37




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 364 364 359 362 350 352 350 330 327 343 343

10 250 268 268 263 266 254 272 270 250 247 263

11 312 205 223 223 218 221 207 225 223 203 200

12 293 317 210 228 228 223 228 214 232 230 210

Total 1,219 1,154 1,060 1,076 1,062 1,050 1,057 1,039 1,032 1,023 1,016

75

Table 38




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 364 380 381 390 384 392 386 367 366 386 395

10 250 284 300 301 310 304 317 311 292 291 311

11 312 226 260 276 277 286 262 275 269 250 249

12 293 329 243 277 293 294 298 274 287 281 262

Total 1,219 1,219 1,184 1,244 1,264 1,276 1,263 1,227 1,214 1,208 1,217

76

Table 39



Rich Township High School District 227East High School

Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 267 264 243 225 208 196 229 214 232 217 216

10 217 208 205 184 166 149 155 188 173 191 176

11 273 160 151 148 127 109 104 110 143 128 146

12 280 241 128 119 116 95 99 94 100 133 118

Total 1,037 873 727 676 617 549 587 606 648 669 656

77

Table 40




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 267 292 275 263 253 246 263 252 272 258 265

10 217 222 247 230 218 208 209 226 215 235 221

11 273 173 178 203 186 174 168 169 186 175 195

12 280 265 165 170 195 178 168 162 163 180 169

Total 1,037 952 865 866 852 806 808 809 836 848 850

78

Table 41




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 267 314 304 298 293 293 299 291 314 303 317

10 217 257 304 294 288 283 265 271 263 286 275

11 273 194 234 281 271 265 248 230 236 228 251

12 280 282 203 243 290 280 266 249 231 237 229

Total 1,037 1,047 1,045 1,116 1,142 1,121 1,078 1,041 1,044 1,054 1,072

79

Table 42



Rich Township High School District 227South High School

Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 285 310 294 284 307 290 299 261 286 279 260

10 229 181 206 190 180 203 189 198 160 185 178

11 266 213 165 190 174 164 193 179 188 150 175

12 316 245 192 144 169 153 159 188 174 183 145

Total 1,096 949 857 808 830 810 840 826 808 797 758

80

Table 43




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 285 330 323 319 349 337 337 297 327 326 330

10 229 195 240 233 229 259 245 245 205 235 234

11 266 225 191 236 229 225 254 240 240 200 230

12 316 263 222 188 233 226 223 252 238 238 198

Total 1,096 1,013 976 976 1,040 1,047 1,059 1,034 1,010 999 992

81

Table 44




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 285 349 350 353 388 382 375 337 370 376 389

10 229 215 279 280 283 318 295 288 250 283 289

11 266 243 229 293 294 297 317 294 287 249 282

12 316 281 258 244 308 309 301 321 298 291 253

Total 1,096 1,088 1,116 1,170 1,273 1,306 1,288 1,240 1,205 1,199 1,213

82

Table 45




Series A Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 916 923 875 843 832 800 848 772 809 799 763

10 696 638 645 597 565 554 573 621 545 582 572

11 851 568 510 517 469 437 449 468 516 440 477

12 889 782 499 441 448 400 420 432 451 499 423

Total 3,352 2,911 2,529 2,398 2,314 2,191 2,290 2,293 2,321 2,320 2,235

83

Table 46




Series B Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 916 986 957 944 952 935 950 879 926 927 938

10 696 685 755 726 713 721 726 741 670 717 718

11 851 603 592 662 633 620 629 634 649 578 625

12 889 845 597 586 656 627 619 628 633 648 577

Total 3,352 3,119 2,901 2,918 2,954 2,903 2,924 2,882 2,878 2,870 2,858

84

Table 47




Series C Projection

Grade 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 2023–24 2024–25 2025–26 2026–27 2027–28

9 916 1,043 1,035 1,041 1,065 1,067 1,060 995 1,050 1,065 1,101

10 696 756 883 875 881 905 877 870 805 860 875

11 851 663 723 850 842 848 827 799 792 727 782

12 889 892 704 764 891 883 865 844 816 809 744

Total 3,352 3,354 3,345 3,530 3,679 3,703 3,629 3,508 3,463 3,461 3,502

85

Appendix A

Enrollment History, Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change,

andNet Annual Student Migration/Transfer

inElementary School District 159,

Country Club Hills School District 160,Matteson School District 162,

andPark Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163

Enrollment History Elementary School District 159

86

Enrollment History ofElementary School District 159

SchoolYear

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K–8

1995–96 163 151 154 165 148 162 180 156 181 1,460

1996–97 147 169 155 154 172 175 164 191 159 1,486

1997–98 152 142 171 150 158 168 183 168 205 1,497

1998–99 137 157 157 175 161 165 182 178 170 1,482

1999–00 153 155 156 166 182 170 166 194 200 1,542

2000–01 129 142 159 158 179 186 176 190 176 1,495

2001–02 154 166 158 191 177 205 203 195 202 1,651

2002–03 152 165 186 169 196 206 191 221 196 1,682

2003–04 173 160 191 191 172 195 202 217 230 1,731

2004–05 147 198 169 192 210 193 211 227 254 1,801

2005–06 156 164 216 185 221 236 238 255 261 1,932

2006–07 183 184 194 238 201 239 268 258 280 2,045

2007–08 132 208 200 225 244 234 258 269 274 2,044

2008–09 154 163 197 211 204 247 230 281 292 1,979

2009–10 201 180 166 208 203 228 272 257 263 1,978

2010–11 162 191 159 167 212 197 230 275 254 1,847

2011–12 136 172 187 167 182 221 195 225 282 1,767

2012–13 168 157 172 199 175 200 225 216 262 1,774

2013–14 155 176 160 170 201 176 197 228 227 1,690

2014–15 161 171 184 158 168 199 191 211 261 1,704

2015–16 136 158 180 191 175 177 203 200 232 1,652

2016–17 142 142 158 178 190 171 187 214 228 1,610

2017–18 167 182 159 192 204 221 199 216 246 1,786

87

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change inElementary School District 159


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering Kvs.

Exiting 8


1995 to 96 26 −34 60

1996 to 97 11 −7 18

1997 to 98 −15 −68 53

1998 to 99 60 −17 77

1999 to 00 −47 −71 24

2000 to 01 156 −22 178

2001 to 02 31 −50 81

2002 to 03 49 −23 72

2003 to 04 70 −83 153

2004 to 05 131 −98 229

2005 to 06 113 −78 191

2006 to 07 −1 −148 147

2007 to 08 −65 −120 55

2008 to 09 −1 −91 90

2009 to 10 −131 −101 −30

2010 to 11 −80 −118 38

2011 to 12 7 −114 121

2012 to 13 −84 −107 23

2013 to 14 14 −66 80

2014 to 15 −52 −125 73

2015 to 16 −42 −90 48

2016 to 17 176 −61 237

88

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer inElementary School District 159


Grade Transition

K–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5–6 6–7 7–8 Total

1995 to 96 6 4 0 7 27 2 11 3 60

1996 to 97 −5 2 −5 4 −4 8 4 14 18

1997 to 98 5 15 4 11 7 14 −5 2 53

1998 to 99 18 −1 9 7 9 1 12 22 77

1999 to 00 −11 4 2 13 4 6 24 −18 24

2000 to 01 37 16 32 19 26 17 19 12 178

2001 to 02 11 20 11 5 29 −14 18 1 81

2002 to 03 8 26 5 3 −1 −4 26 9 72

2003 to 04 25 9 1 19 21 16 25 37 153

2004 to 05 17 18 16 29 26 45 44 34 229

2005 to 06 28 30 22 16 18 32 20 25 191

2006 to 07 25 16 31 6 33 19 1 16 147

2007 to 08 31 −11 11 −21 3 −4 23 23 55

2008 to 09 26 3 11 −8 24 25 27 −18 90

2009 to 10 −10 −21 1 4 −6 2 3 −3 −30

2010 to 11 10 −4 8 15 9 −2 −5 7 38

2011 to 12 21 0 12 8 18 4 21 37 121

2012 to 13 8 3 −2 2 1 −3 3 11 23

2013 to 14 16 8 −2 −2 −2 15 14 33 80

2014 to 15 −3 9 7 17 9 4 9 21 73

2015 to 16 6 0 −2 −1 −4 10 11 28 48

2016 to 17 40 17 34 26 31 28 29 32 237

89

Enrollment History ofCountry Club Hills School District 160

SchoolYear

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K–8

1995–96 112 145 138 131 154 119 109 133 149 1,190

1996–97 94 164 155 161 137 151 132 131 138 1,263

1997–98 111 156 163 177 168 147 170 148 130 1,370

1998–99 107 157 146 171 172 181 161 161 162 1,418

1999–00 110 166 163 162 182 165 188 156 173 1,465

2000–01 127 176 165 164 176 192 185 192 175 1,552

2001–02 107 161 175 172 173 184 213 188 196 1,569

2002–03 100 144 192 188 171 176 197 205 189 1,562

2003–04 89 167 154 206 189 179 179 191 227 1,581

2004–05 104 181 137 169 199 196 174 173 184 1,517

2005-06 95 156 173 193 195 233 207 182 178 1,612

2006-07 127 125 162 169 189 204 212 215 201 1,604

2007-08 123 154 153 154 164 187 192 204 226 1,557

2008-09 118 130 150 147 159 161 174 183 193 1,415

2009–10 138 134 151 157 142 175 154 181 192 1,424

2010–11 118 139 134 145 172 136 164 156 194 1,358

2011–12 111 131 135 137 145 174 142 153 150 1,278

2012–13 116 129 129 140 138 150 177 144 155 1,278

2013–14 116 122 131 127 146 136 153 186 153 1,270

2014–15 98 106 126 122 131 144 144 151 200 1,222

2015–16 107 109 129 127 138 140 150 165 158 1,223

2016–17 101 126 113 153 133 154 159 150 178 1,267

2017–18 91 99 131 123 153 130 163 165 152 1,207

90

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change inCountry Club Hills School District 160


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering Kvs.

Exiting 8


1995 to 96 73 −55 128

1996 to 97 107 −27 134

1997 to 98 48 −23 71

1998 to 99 47 −52 99

1999 to 00 87 −46 133

2000 to 01 17 −68 85

2001 to 02 −7 −96 89

2002 to 03 19 −100 119

2003 to 04 −64 −123 59

2004 to 05 95 −89 184

2005 to 06 −8 −51 43

2006 to 07 −47 −78 31

2007 to 08 −142 −108 −34

2008 to 09 9 −55 64

2009 to 10 −66 −74 8

2010 to 11 −80 −83 3

2011 to 12 0 −34 34

2012 to 13 −8 −39 31

2013 to 14 −48 −55 7

2014 to 15 1 −93 94

2015 to 16 44 −57 101

2016 to 17 −60 −87 27

91

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer inCountry Club Hills School District 160


Grade Transition

K–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5–6 6–7 7–8 Total

1995 to 96 52 10 23 6 −3 13 22 5 128

1996 to 97 62 −1 22 7 10 19 16 −1 134

1997 to 98 46 −10 8 −5 13 14 −9 14 71

1998 to 99 59 6 16 11 −7 7 −5 12 99

1999 to 00 66 −1 1 14 10 20 4 19 133

2000 to 01 34 −1 7 9 8 21 3 4 85

2001 to 02 37 31 13 −1 3 13 −8 1 89

2002 to 03 67 10 14 1 8 3 −6 22 119

2003 to 04 92 −30 15 −7 7 −5 −6 −7 59

2004 to 05 52 −8 56 26 34 11 8 5 184

2005 to 06 30 6 −4 −4 9 −21 8 19 43

2006 to 07 27 28 −8 −5 −2 −12 −8 11 31

2007 to 08 7 −4 −6 5 −3 −13 −9 −11 −34

2008 to 09 16 21 7 −5 16 −7 7 9 64

2009 to 10 1 0 −6 15 −6 −11 2 13 8

2010 to 11 13 −4 3 0 2 6 −11 −6 3

2011 to 12 18 −2 5 1 5 3 2 2 34

2012 to 13 6 2 −2 6 −2 3 9 9 31

2013 to 14 −10 4 −9 4 −2 8 −2 14 7

2014 to 15 11 23 1 16 9 6 21 7 94

2015 to 16 19 4 24 6 16 19 0 13 101

2016 to 17 −2 5 10 0 −3 9 6 2 27

92

Enrollment History ofMatteson School District 162

SchoolYear

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K–8

1995–96 228 234 268 227 266 253 269 229 238 2,212

1996–97 194 262 260 276 237 272 247 279 231 2,258

1997–98 218 241 266 257 279 250 263 281 284 2,339

1998–99 239 258 239 276 256 270 252 274 268 2,332

1999–00 269 276 276 257 309 289 319 263 291 2,549

2000–01 236 271 286 324 307 338 309 323 275 2,669

2001–02 275 259 275 313 335 291 316 320 326 2,710

2002–03 293 293 279 328 304 338 329 339 330 2,833

2003–04 292 333 299 273 336 290 352 358 318 2,851

2004–05 296 350 369 328 342 383 370 397 375 3,210

2005–06 301 355 366 329 343 389 384 402 370 3,239

2006–07 326 355 330 383 353 367 399 388 381 3,282

2007–08 294 343 339 318 349 364 357 387 362 3,113

2008–09 289 325 361 354 332 363 384 369 387 3,164

2009–10 279 343 332 365 362 350 368 378 384 3,161

2010–11 262 326 345 336 367 373 359 384 382 3,134

2011–12 267 295 311 337 345 366 366 345 377 3,009

2012–13 280 297 332 319 345 341 369 373 352 3,008

2013–14 269 302 293 332 307 331 347 379 369 2,929

2014–15 272 268 302 306 303 321 332 327 375 2,806

2015–16 255 276 279 312 291 304 321 318 334 2,690

2016–17 243 253 282 293 301 307 312 328 336 2,655

2017–18 275 260 263 305 288 303 315 310 333 2,652

* 2005–06 sixth grade estimated

93

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change inMatteson School District 162


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering Kvs.

Exiting 8


1995 to 96 46 −44 90

1996 to 97 81 −13 94

1997 to 98 −7 −45 38

1998 to 99 217 1 216

1999 to 00 120 −55 175

2000 to 01 41 0 41

2001 to 02 123 −33 156

2002 to 03 18 −38 56

2003 to 04 359 −22 381

2004 to 05 29 −74 103

2005 to 06 43 −44 87

2006 to 07 −169 −87 −82

2007 to 08 51 −73 124

2008 to 09 −3 −108 105

2009 to 10 −27 −122 95

2010 to 11 −125 −115 −10

2011 to 12 −1 −97 96

2012 to 13 −79 −83 4

2013 to 14 −123 −97 −26

2014 to 15 −116 −120 4

2015 to 16 −35 −91 56

2016 to 17 −3 −61 58

94

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer inMatteson School District 162


Grade Transition

K–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5–6 6–7 7–8 Total

1995 to 96 34 26 8 10 6 −6 10 2 90

1996 to 97 47 4 −3 3 13 −9 34 5 94

1997 to 98 40 −2 10 −1 −9 2 11 −13 38

1998 to 99 37 18 18 33 33 49 11 17 216

1999 to 00 2 10 48 50 29 20 4 12 175

2000 to 01 23 4 27 11 −16 −22 11 3 41

2001 to 02 18 20 53 −9 3 38 23 10 156

2002 to 03 40 6 −6 8 −14 14 29 −21 56

2003 to 04 58 36 29 69 47 80 45 17 381

2004 to 05 59 16 −40 15 47 1 32 −27 103

2005 to 06 54 −25 17 24 24 10 4 −21 87

2006 to 07 17 −16 −12 −34 11 −10 −12 −26 −82

2007 to 08 31 18 15 14 14 20 12 0 124

2008 to 09 54 7 4 8 18 5 −6 15 105

2009 to 10 47 2 4 2 11 9 16 4 95

2010 to 11 33 −15 −8 9 −1 −7 −14 −7 −10

2011 to 12 30 37 8 8 −4 3 7 7 96

2012 to 13 22 −4 0 −12 −14 6 10 −4 4

2013 to 14 −1 0 13 −29 14 1 −20 −4 −26

2014 to 15 4 11 10 −15 1 0 −14 7 4

2015 to 16 −2 6 14 −11 16 8 7 18 56

2016 to 17 17 10 23 −5 2 8 −2 5 58

95

Enrollment History ofPark Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163

SchoolYear

K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 K–8

1995–96 207 210 205 223 221 228 233 200 251 1,978

1996–97 199 214 214 196 219 216 218 220 199 1,895

1997–98 185 219 217 233 231 215 217 216 218 1,951

1998–99 217 204 228 212 229 234 213 222 221 1,980

1999–00 209 237 213 249 258 210 234 214 206 2,030

2000–01 238 243 227 222 251 247 202 222 219 2,071

2001–02 190 246 229 220 230 258 237 202 214 2,026

2002–03 189 208 229 203 236 242 257 241 214 2,019

2003–04 182 200 217 232 241 248 239 278 241 2,078

2004–05 163 200 191 219 238 249 259 244 291 2,054

2005–06 192 186 220 198 218 236 267 261 250 2,028

2006–07 185 182 191 222 197 214 222 264 227 1,904

2007–08 189 192 184 188 220 206 223 238 237 1,877

2008–09 137 198 179 180 169 202 186 202 229 1,682

2009–10 192 171 202 211 196 183 220 225 230 1,830

2010–11 193 206 185 196 223 219 197 227 219 1,865

2011–12 198 213 210 188 205 232 222 209 238 1,915

2012–13 189 217 211 223 200 216 236 247 221 1,960

2013–14 210 209 223 214 225 205 210 241 247 1,984

2014–15 186 207 225 237 232 226 226 221 234 1,994

2015–16 184 211 205 232 228 243 232 224 203 1,962

2016–17 187 194 217 218 236 216 235 240 203 1,946

2017–18 169 200 184 212 197 197 203 217 215 1,794

96

Decomposition of Annual Sources of Enrollment Change inPark Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163


ChangeTotal

Enrollment

Entering Kvs.

Exiting 8


1995 to 96 −83 −52 −31

1996 to 97 56 −14 70

1997 to 98 29 −1 30

1998 to 99 50 −12 62

1999 to 00 41 32 9

2000 to 01 −45 −29 −16

2001 to 02 −7 −25 18

2002 to 03 59 −32 91

2003 to 04 −24 −78 54

2004 to 05 −26 −99 73

2005 to 06 −124 −65 −59

2006 to 07 −27 −38 11

2007 to 08 −195 −100 −95

2008 to 09 148 −37 185

2009 to 10 35 −37 72

2010 to 11 50 −21 71

2011 to 12 45 −49 94

2012 to 13 24 −11 35

2013 to 14 10 −61 71

2014 to 15 −32 −50 18

2015 to 16 −16 −16 0

2016 to 17 −152 −34 −118

97

Net Annual Student Migration/Transfer inPark Forest–Chicago Heights School District 163


Grade Transition

K–1 1–2 2–3 3–4 4–5 5–6 6–7 7–8 Total

1995 to 96 7 4 −9 −4 −5 −10 −13 −1 −31

1996 to 97 20 3 19 35 −4 1 −2 −2 70

1997 to 98 19 9 −5 −4 3 −2 5 5 30

1998 to 99 20 9 21 46 −19 0 1 −16 62

1999 to 00 34 −10 9 2 −11 −8 −12 5 9

2000 to 01 8 −14 −7 8 7 −10 0 −8 −16

2001 to 02 18 −17 −26 16 12 −1 4 12 18

2002 to 03 11 9 3 38 12 −3 21 0 91

2003 to 04 18 −9 2 6 8 11 5 13 54

2004 to 05 23 20 7 −1 −2 18 2 6 73

2005 to 06 −10 5 2 −1 −4 −14 −3 −34 −59

2006 to 07 7 2 −3 −2 9 9 16 −27 11

2007 to 08 9 −13 −4 −19 −18 −20 −21 −9 −95

2008 to 09 34 4 32 16 14 18 39 28 185

2009 to 10 14 14 −6 12 23 14 7 −6 72

2010 to 11 20 4 3 9 9 3 12 11 71

2011 to 12 19 −2 13 12 11 4 25 12 94

2012 to 13 20 6 3 2 5 −6 5 0 35

2013 to 14 −3 16 14 18 1 21 11 −7 71

2014 to 15 25 −2 7 −9 11 6 −2 −18 18

2015 to 16 10 6 13 4 −12 −8 8 −21 0

2016 to 17 13 −10 −5 −21 −39 −13 −18 −25 −118

98

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