ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I - WEST O‘AHU

FALL 2016 TO FALL 2021

Institutional Research and Analysis Office

University of Hawai‘i System

January 2016

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I - WEST O‘AHU

FALL 2016 TO FALL 2021

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Narrative Graphs

Figure 1 Recent and Projected Headcount Enrollment Figure 2 Headcount Enrollment Index Figure 3 Historical Headcount Enrollment with Trend Line Figure 4 Projected Enrollment with High and Low Series Figure 5 First-Time Freshmen by High School of Origin Figure 6 Classified Transfer Enrollment by Previous College Figure 7 Classified Returning Enrollment Figure 8 Classified Continuing Enrollment by Education Level Figure 9 Unclassified Enrollment Figure 10 Distance Education Enrollment

Tables Table 1 Headcount Enrollment by Student Type and Academic Level,

Fall 2010 to Fall 2021 Table 2 Headcount Enrollment by Program, Fall 2015 to Fall 2021 Table 3 Student Semester Hours Offered by Program,

Fall 2015 to Fall 2021

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) Table 4 Full-Time Equivalent Course Enrollment Served by Program,

Fall 2015 to Fall 2021 Table 5 Headcount Enrollment by Attendance Status, Fall 2015 to Fall 2021

Appendices

Appendix A Hawai‘i Public High School Seniors by School District, Academic Years 2009-10 to 2020-21

Appendix B Hawai‘i High School Graduates, WICHE Historical and Projected –

2012 Series

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ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I – WEST O‘AHU FALL 2016 TO FALL 2021

INTRODUCTION This report presents information on historical and projected headcount enrollment for the University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu. The projections are statistical extrapolations of current trends in enrollment. In general, they neither set enrollment targets nor take into consideration changes in University policies or procedures. They should be considered as an extension into the future of current enrollment trends and may be used as a foundation for further work in the planning and budgeting processes. The projection reports also make use of a time series analysis conducted by UH IRAO staff which incorporates a variety of economic and demographic factors. This model has been used to guide and validate the standard model projection methodology. (Detailed information on the time series analysis is available as a separate publication.) The projections present unduplicated headcounts of students enrolled in credit programs and include both classified and unclassified students. Historical data shown in the charts and tables were extracted from student enrollment, academic crossover and course registration files. Distance education data were taken from the course registration files and are defined by mode of delivery. Information on Hawai'i public high school seniors was provided by the Hawai‘i Department of Education. Information on Hawai‘i public and private high school graduates was taken from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) publication entitled “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates,” December 2012 edition. METHODOLOGY Enrollment data are first divided between classified and unclassified. Classified enrollment is further divided by student type: first-time, transfer, returning and continuing. Unclassified enrollment is divided into three groups: regular unclassified, home-based at other UH campuses and early admits. Each of these areas is treated separately and the results summed to yield the total campus enrollment forecast. The methods used to forecast each group of students vary and include linear and logarithmic trends, continuation rates, participation ratios and constants. First-time freshmen enrollment is sub-divided based upon the geographic location of high school: direct entrants from Hawai‘i public high schools, direct entrants from Hawai‘i private high schools, freshmen from the U.S. mainland, freshmen from foreign countries and other first-time freshmen. Direct entrants are students from Hawai‘i public and private high

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schools who enter UH West O‘ahu in the fall semester immediately following graduation from high school. The enrollment projections of direct public entrants are based upon the forecast of public high school seniors provided by the Hawai‘i Department of Education (see Appendix A). This forecast was most recently updated in June 2015. Historical ratios of direct public entrants to public high school senior enrollment are calculated by school district. Enrollment for each year is projected by applying an average of this ratio (by district) to the annual DOE senior enrollment forecast. The projection of direct private entrants relies upon the private high school graduate forecast for Hawai‘i published by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), most recently updated in December 2012 (see Appendix B). Historical ratios of direct private entrants to Hawai‘i private high school graduates are first calculated. An average ratio is then applied to the WICHE annual private high school graduate forecast to yield the projected number of first-time freshmen from Hawai‘i private high schools. The total number of first-time freshmen from the U.S. mainland, foreign countries and other areas has been growing slowly but is still small in absolute terms. A small annual increase has been applied to the fall 2015 number, giving the forecast an upward trend. Other first-time freshmen include those who completed high school via the GED examination, those who graduated from Hawai‘i high schools prior to the 2014-15 school year, home schooled students and students whose high school is unknown. Classified transfer enrollment is displayed by education level and by previous college. The forecast is based upon the data by previous college. Transfers from other UH campuses and from the U.S. mainland have been forecast using log trends measured from fall 2005 to fall 2015. Transfers from Hawai‘i private colleges as well as other transfers have been set constant at the fall 2015 level. Other transfers would include those from foreign countries and transfers whose previous college is unknown. Distribution across education levels has been made using the current year (fall 2015) ratios. Returning students are previously enrolled students who have been absent for at least one semester (excluding summer session) without having attended another institution in the interim. Returning enrollment for upper division students has been forecast using the long-term linear trend. This forecast method results in a very modest annual increase. Continuing student enrollment has been forecast using continuation rates. In general, a continuation rate is the ratio of continuing enrollment at a given education level to the previous fall semester's total enrollment at the next lower level. In this report, freshmen are projected using the previous year's first-time freshmen, sophomores using the previous year's total freshmen, juniors using the sum of the previous year’s sophomores and juniors,

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and seniors using the previous year’s total upper division (juniors plus seniors). Average continuation rates are applied to the actual or projected total enrollment by education level to forecast continuing enrollment at the next higher level. After increasing markedly in fall 2013 and 2014, unclassified enrollment declined in fall 2015. These changes were due largely to the enrollment of early admits, high school students taking college courses (these students are unclassified by definition). Given this recent volatility, unclassified enrollment has been set constant at the fall 2015 level. Table 1 presents six years of historical data and detailed forecasts by student type and education level. Table 2 presents headcount enrollment by program. Student semester hours (SSH) offered are shown in Table 3 and full-time equivalent (FTE) course enrollments are given in Table 4. Headcount enrollment by attendance status is provided in Table 5. Appendix A shows historical and DOE projected enrollments of Hawai‘i public high school seniors by geographic district. Appendix B gives WICHE forecasts of Hawai‘i public and private high school graduates through academic year 2027-28.

ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION

• Headcount enrollment at the University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu measured 2,692 in

fall 2015, a 1.2% increase over fall 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 1). This total marked the twelfth consecutive fall semester of enrollment growth and set a new all-time high in headcount enrollment for the campus (Figures 1 & 3).

• The forecast calls for enrollment to increase another 3.7% in fall 2016 to reach 2,791. Subsequent growth will gradually taper off to 1.7% by fall 2021, when enrollment should exceed 3,000 students.

• First-time freshmen enrollment began in fall 2007. After growing rapidly through fall 2012, first-time freshmen enrollment has declined the last three years (Figure 5). However, the Hawai‘i DOE forecast of high school seniors calls for growth in the Leeward district (Appendix A). Based upon this information, first-time freshmen have been forecast to increase mildly through the projection period. Most of this growth is expected to occur among the direct public entrants.

• Despite the addition first-time freshmen, transfer enrollment still comprises the majority of entering students. The vast majority of transfers (78% in fall 2015) come from other UH campuses, with Leeward CC contributing the most (32%) of any single UH campus. Transfers from the U.S. mainland comprised 15% of all transfers in fall 2015. These two series (UH campuses and U.S. mainland) show distinct upward trends which have been used in the forecast (Figure 6). On the

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strength of these trends, transfer enrollment is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 1.7% through fall 2021.

• Returning enrollment has been small in absolute terms and has fluctuated considerably in recent years (Figure 7). Though no distinct trend is apparent in the data, some recent growth has occurred. The forecast calls for very modest increase.

• Continuing student enrollment is forecast to increase from 1,662 in fall 2015 to 1,955 by fall 2021 (Figure 8). This rate of increase (2.7% average annual) is much slower than the 12.9% average annual rate measured from fall 2010 to fall 2015. In general, overall campus enrollment tends to be driven by the size of the continuing group. In fall 2015, more than half (57%) of all continuing students were seniors. Continuing enrollment could vary considerably going forward depending upon student retention and completion patterns.

• As mentioned previously, unclassified enrollment grew in fall 2013 and fall 2014, primarily due to the addition of Early Admits (high school students enrolled in college courses). However, that number declined in fall 2015. Further growth in unclassified enrollment may depend upon how issues around early admit enrollment are resolved.

• Enrollment of students via distance education technology has been an important component of the enrollment mix at UH-West O‘ahu (Figure 10). In fall 2015, enrollment of students taking their courses completely via distance education methods accounted for 32% of the headcount, while 71% had at least some courses taken via distance education means. In fall 2006, distance education accounted for 31% of all semester hours taken; by fall 2015 that percentage had grown to 46%.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Since the founding of the campus in 1976, enrollment at UH-West O‘ahu has had a strong upward growth trend. The addition of lower division enrollment in fall 2007 put enrollment growth on a much steeper trajectory (Figure 3). In fall 2015, enrollment growth showed the first real signs of slowing. Given the population increases expected in the leeward and central areas of O‘ahu, the ongoing distance education programs at the campus and the appeal of a new facility, enrollment demand at UH-West O‘ahu will remain strong. However, one should expect the rate of growth going forward to be considerably lower than in the recent past.

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University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu Headcount Enrollment Projections

866 9401,140

1,3331,471

1,662

1,997

2,361

2,661 2,6922,791 2,860 2,925 2,974 3,025 3,077

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 1Recent and Projected Headcount Enrollment

Historical Projected

32.234.9

42.349.5

54.661.7

74.2

87.798.8 100.0 103.7 106.2 108.7 110.5 112.4 114.3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 2Headcount Enrollment Index

Historical Projected

Fall 2015 = 100

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University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu Headcount Enrollment Projections

 

 

 

 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Fall Semester

Figure 3Historical Headcount Enrollment with Trend Line

Historical Polynomial Trend

3,077

3,429

2,725

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 4Projected Enrollment with High and Low Series

Historical Projected High Series Low Series

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University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu Headcount Enrollment Projections

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 5First-Time Freshmen by High School of Origin

Direct HI Public Entrants Direct HI Private Entrants Other

Projected

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 6Classified Transfer Enrollment by Previous College

Other UH Campuses HI Private Colleges U.S. Mainland Other

Projected

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University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu Headcount Enrollment Projections

31

47

3234

38 37

11

25

44 44 44 45 46 47 48 48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 7Classified Returning Enrollment

Historical Projected

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 8Classified Continuing Enrollment by Education Level

Senior Junior Sophomore Freshmen

Projected

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University of Hawai‘i – West O‘ahu Headcount Enrollment Projections

0

50

100

150

200

250

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21Fall Semester

Figure 9Unclassified Enrollment

Regular Early Admits Home-Based at Other UH Campuses

Projected

49% 45%52%

59% 62% 60% 61% 58% 59%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Fall Semester

Figure 10Distance Education Enrollment

On-Campus Off-Campus Both On & Off Campus Some Distance Ed

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TABLE 1HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT BY STUDENT TYPE AND EDUCATION LEVEL

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2010 TO FALL 2021

REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED

EDUCATIONAL LEVEL AND 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Campus Total ............................ 1,471 1,662 1,997 2,361 2,661 2,692 2,791 2,860 2,925 2,974 3,025 3,077

Classified Students 1/ ................ 1,418 1,600 1,950 2,192 2,424 2,517 2,616 2,685 2,750 2,799 2,850 2,902Freshman ................................ 167 175 373 418 352 433 431 442 452 451 459 471Sophomore ............................. 108 135 161 214 276 271 313 314 320 327 329 334Junior ...................................... 390 466 513 589 722 697 690 710 725 738 751 761Senior ...................................... 753 824 903 971 1,074 1,116 1,182 1,219 1,253 1,283 1,311 1,336

Unclassified & Other ................... 53 62 47 169 237 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Entering Students ………………… 499 593 806 855 880 855 869 890 906 913 933 947

First-Time Freshmen .............. 105 122 301 291 266 254 257 265 270 266 276 282Direct Public Entrants .......... 71 84 242 222 195 186 186 189 191 187 196 197Direct Private Entrants ........ 23 27 39 55 46 36 37 40 41 39 38 41Other First-Time Freshman . 11 11 20 14 25 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

Transfer ................................... 356 434 494 539 570 557 568 580 590 600 609 617Freshman ............................ 7 16 24 25 18 48 49 50 51 52 52 53Sophomore .......................... 40 37 60 55 64 92 94 96 97 99 101 102Junior ................................... 192 248 263 283 353 271 276 282 287 292 296 300Senior .................................. 117 133 147 176 135 146 149 152 155 157 160 162

Transfer by Previous College . 356 434 494 539 570 557 568 580 590 600 609 617UH Campuses ……………… 275 346 366 402 449 434 444 453 461 469 476 483Hawaii Private ……………… 10 7 15 19 19 13 13 13 13 13 13 13Mainland (Incl Military) ……… 49 64 73 77 90 83 84 87 89 91 93 94Other ………………………… 22 17 40 41 12 27 27 27 27 27 27 27

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TABLE 1HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT BY STUDENT TYPE AND EDUCATION LEVEL

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2010 TO FALL 2021

REGISTRATION STATUS HISTORICAL PROJECTED

EDUCATIONAL LEVEL AND 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Returning ................................ 38 37 11 25 44 44 44 45 46 47 48 48Freshman ............................ 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Sophomore .......................... 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1Junior ................................... 12 10 4 5 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16Senior .................................. 22 26 6 17 28 26 27 28 28 29 30 30

Continuing ................................... 919 1,007 1,144 1,337 1,544 1,662 1,747 1,795 1,844 1,886 1,917 1,955Freshman ................................ 51 37 48 102 67 130 124 126 130 132 130 135Sophomore ............................. 68 97 100 156 212 177 218 217 222 227 227 231Junior ...................................... 186 208 246 301 354 411 399 413 422 430 439 445Senior ...................................... 614 665 750 778 911 944 1,006 1,039 1,070 1,097 1,121 1,144

Unclassified and Other ............... 53 62 47 169 237 175 175 175 175 175 175 175Regular Unclassified ............... 25 35 25 28 30 21 21 21 21 21 21 21Early Admits 2/ ....................... 6 89 140 67 67 67 67 67 67 67Home-Based at Other UH 3/ … 28 27 16 52 67 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

1/ Breakouts by Student Type and by Education Level have been revised.2/ High school students taking college level courses.3/ Students whose primary (home) campus, as defined in Banner / ODS, is a UH campus other than UH-West O‘ahu.Note: Lower Division classified enrollment began in Fall 2007.

Source: UH Institutional Research and Analysis Office; January 2016.

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TABLE 2HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT BY PROGRAM

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2015 TO FALL 2021

PROJECTED

PROGRAM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TOTAL ........................................ 2,692 2,791 2,860 2,925 2,974 3,025 3,077

Lower Division 1/ ..................... 879 919 931 947 953 963 980

Upper Division ......................... 1,813 1,872 1,929 1,978 2,021 2,062 2,097

Education 2/ ............................ 213 221 228 233 236 240 245Lower Division ....................... 79 83 85 87 87 88 90Upper Division ....................... 134 138 143 146 149 152 155

Humanities ............................... 129 134 137 141 143 146 149Lower Division ....................... 32 34 34 35 35 36 37Upper Division ....................... 97 100 103 106 108 110 112

Business Administration 3/...... 798 829 851 872 887 904 921

Lower Division ....................... 194 205 208 213 214 217 222

Upper Division ....................... 604 624 643 659 673 687 699

Applied Science .................... 160 165 171 174 178 182 185Lower Division ................... 25 26 27 27 28 28 29Upper Division ................... 135 139 144 147 150 154 156

Public Administration 3/ .......... 534 554 570 583 595 605 617

Lower Division ....................... 102 108 110 112 113 114 117

Upper Division ....................... 432 446 460 471 482 491 500

Social Sciences ........................ 495 514 527 541 552 562 570

Lower Division ....................... 104 110 112 114 115 117 118

Upper Division ....................... 391 404 415 427 437 445 452

General .................................... 188 199 201 206 208 211 215Lower Division ....................... 168 178 180 184 186 188 192Upper Division ....................... 20 21 21 22 22 23 23

Unclassified .............................. 175 175 175 175 175 175 175

Regular Unclassified ............. 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Early Admits 4/ ..................... 67 67 67 67 67 67 67

Home-Based at Other UH 5/ 87 87 87 87 87 87 87

1/ Includes unclassified students for all years.2/ Education division established by the Chancellor in February 2009.

4/ High school students taking college level courses.5/ Students whose primary (home) campus is a UH campus other than UH West O‘ahu.

ACTUAL

3/ Business Administration and Public Administration reorganized as separate divisions, effective Fall 2011. Applied Science is included under Business Administration Division.

TABLE 3STUDENT SEMESTER HOURS OFFERED BY PROGRAM

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2015 TO FALL 2021

PROJECTED

PROGRAM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TOTAL ............................... 27,516 28,586 29,309 29,995 30,499 31,034 31,591Lower Division ............. 10,519 11,051 11,271 11,515 11,646 11,822 12,047Upper Division ............. 16,997 17,535 18,038 18,480 18,853 19,212 19,544

Education 1/.................... 1,149 1,185 1,224 1,252 1,274 1,300 1,326Lower Division ............. 234 242 250 255 258 264 270Upper Division ............. 915 943 974 997 1,016 1,036 1,056

Humanities ...................... 6,210 6,483 6,614 6,763 6,847 6,956 7,084Lower Division ............. 4,436 4,642 4,727 4,828 4,879 4,952 5,043Upper Division ............. 1,774 1,841 1,887 1,935 1,968 2,004 2,041

Natural Sciences ............ 2,678 2,807 2,863 2,928 2,961 3,005 3,065Lower Division ............. 2,616 2,744 2,797 2,861 2,893 2,936 2,995Upper Division ............. 62 63 66 67 68 69 70

Business Admin 2/ ......... 5,832 6,033 6,207 6,357 6,482 6,611 6,725Lower Division ............. 381 396 406 415 421 427 435Upper Division ............. 5,451 5,637 5,801 5,942 6,061 6,184 6,290

Applied Science ........... 222 228 236 241 246 253 256Upper Division ........... 222 228 236 241 246 253 256

Public Administration 2/ . 5,451 5,640 5,803 5,938 6,064 6,167 6,282Lower Division ............. 594 620 635 650 661 668 683Upper Division ............. 4,857 5,020 5,168 5,288 5,403 5,499 5,599

Social Sciences .............. 5,776 6,004 6,152 6,302 6,410 6,520 6,629Lower Division ............. 2,079 2,220 2,266 2,312 2,340 2,375 2,419Upper Division ............. 3,697 3,784 3,886 3,990 4,070 4,145 4,210

General ........................... 198 206 210 214 215 222 224Lower Division ............. 179 187 190 194 194 200 202Upper Division ............. 19 19 20 20 21 22 22

1/ Education division established by the Chancellor in February 2009.

Note: Lower Division classified enrollment began in Fall 2007.

ACTUAL

2/ Business Administration and Public Administration reorganized as separate divisions, effective Fall 2011. Applied Science is included under Business Administration Division.

TABLE 4FULL-TIME EQUIVALENT COURSE ENROLLMENT SERVED BY PROGRAM

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2015 TO FALL 2021

PROJECTED

PROGRAM 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TOTAL ............................... 1,834 1,906 1,954 2,000 2,033 2,069 2,106Lower Division ................ 701 737 751 768 776 788 803Upper Division ................ 1133 1169 1203 1232 1257 1281 1303

Education 1/.................... 76 79 82 83 85 87 88Lower Division ............. 16 16 17 17 17 18 18Upper Division ............. 60 63 65 66 68 69 70

Humanities ...................... 414 432 441 451 456 464 472Lower Division ........... 296 309 315 322 325 330 336Upper Division ........... 118 123 126 129 131 134 136

Natural Sciences ............ 178 187 190 195 198 201 205Lower Division ........... 174 183 186 191 193 196 200Upper Division ........... 4 4 4 4 5 5 5

Business Admin 2/ ......... 389 402 414 424 432 440 448Lower Division ............. 25 26 27 28 28 28 29Upper Division ............. 364 376 387 396 404 412 419

Applied Science ........... 15 15 16 16 16 17 17Upper Division ........... 15 15 16 16 16 17 17

Public Administration 2/ . 364 376 387 396 404 412 419Lower Division ............. 40 41 42 43 44 45 46Upper Division ............. 324 335 345 353 360 367 373

Social Sciences .............. 385 402 410 421 428 434 443Lower Division ........... 138 150 151 154 156 158 161Upper Division ........... 247 252 259 267 272 276 282

General ........................... 13 13 14 14 14 14 14Lower Division ........... 12 12 13 13 13 13 13Upper Division ........... 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

1/ Education division established by the Chancellor in February 2009.

Note: Lower Division classified enrollment began in Fall 2007.

ACTUAL

2/ Business Administration and Public Administration reorganized as separate divisions, effective Fall 2011. Applied Science is included under Business Administration Division.

TABLE 5HEADCOUNT ENROLLMENT BY ATTENDANCE STATUS

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I-WEST O‘AHUFALL 2015 TO FALL 2021

PROJECTED

ATTENDANCE STATUS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

TOTAL .......................... 2,692 2,791 2,860 2,925 2,974 3,025 3,077

Full-Time .................... 1,438 1,519 1,585 1,649 1,706 1,764 1,826Lower Division 1/ .... 525 558 575 594 607 623 644Upper Division ......... 913 961 1,010 1,055 1,099 1,141 1,182

Part-Time 2/ .............. 1,254 1,272 1,275 1,276 1,268 1,261 1,251Lower Division ......... 354 361 356 353 346 340 336Upper Division ........ 900 911 919 923 922 921 915

1/ Includes unclassified students for all years.2/ Includes student records with invalid data on attendance status.

ACTUAL

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APPENDIX AHAWAI‘I PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS BY SCHOOL DISTRICT

ACADEMIC YEARS 2009-10 TO 2020-21

HISTORICAL PROJECTED

SCHOOL DISTRICT 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21

TOTAL ................................ 9,400 9,602 9,897 9,588 9,794 9,516 9,442 9,594 9,618 9,144 9,615 9,628

O'ahu Districts ..................... 6,032 6,232 6,568 6,224 6,377 6,161 6,121 6,217 6,277 5,987 6,272 6,205

Honolulu District .............. 1,566 1,668 1,710 1,666 1,735 1,616 1,594 1,654 1,707 1,549 1,625 1,591Central District ................. 1,697 1,784 1,964 1,803 1,866 1,790 1,828 1,728 1,739 1,694 1,767 1,724Leeward District .............. 2,039 2,002 2,075 2,044 2,056 1,995 1,994 2,181 2,203 2,150 2,283 2,323Windward District ............ 730 778 819 711 720 760 705 654 628 594 597 567

Neighbor Island Districts ..... 3,134 3,133 3,065 3,102 3,103 3,048 3,014 3,070 3,034 2,850 3,036 3,116

Hawai‘i District ................ 1,520 1,382 1,384 1,348 1,368 1,315 1,325 1,380 1,360 1,341 1,348 1,379Maui District .................... 1,091 1,156 1,087 1,182 1,163 1,193 1,118 1,160 1,162 1,033 1,159 1,199Kaua‘i District .................. 523 595 594 572 572 540 571 530 512 476 529 538

Other Schools ..................... 234 237 264 262 314 307 307 307 307 307 307 307Charter Schools 1/ ......... 234 237 264 262 314 307 307 307 307 307 307 307

1/ Includes all districts. Charter School projection not provided by the DOE beginning 2014-15 (set constant at 2014-15 level).Source: Department of Education for the State of Hawai‘i; June 2014. Regular Education seniors only.

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APPENDIX BHAWAI‘I HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES

WICHE HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED - 2012 SERIES

Academic Total Pct Public Pct Private Pct Year Chnge Chnge Chnge

1997-98 12,246 6.1 9,670 8.3 2,576 -1.61998-99 12,247 0.0 9,714 0.5 2,533 -1.71999-00 13,398 9.4 10,437 7.4 2,961 16.92000-01 13,490 0.7 10,102 -3.2 3,388 14.42001-02 13,536 0.3 10,452 3.5 3,084 -9.02002-03 12,793 -5.5 10,013 -4.2 2,780 -9.92003-04 12,953 1.3 10,324 3.1 2,629 -5.42004-05 13,396 3.4 10,813 4.7 2,583 -1.72005-06 13,080 -2.4 10,922 1.0 2,158 -16.52006-07 13,448 2.8 11,063 1.3 2,385 10.52007-08 14,137 5.1 11,613 5.0 2,524 5.82008-09 14,167 0.2 11,508 -0.9 2,659 5.32009-10 13,535 -4.5 10,807 -6.1 2,728 2.62010-11 13,745 1.6 11,037 2.1 2,708 -0.72011-12 13,738 -0.1 10,990 -0.4 2,748 1.52012-13 13,502 -1.7 10,647 -3.1 2,855 3.92013-14 13,125 -2.8 10,347 -2.8 2,778 -2.72014-15 12,852 -2.1 10,168 -1.7 2,684 -3.42015-16 12,997 1.1 10,259 0.9 2,738 2.02016-17 13,252 2.0 10,278 0.2 2,974 8.62017-18 13,654 3.0 10,628 3.4 3,026 1.72018-19 12,895 -5.6 10,020 -5.7 2,875 -5.02019-20 13,354 3.6 10,532 5.1 2,822 -1.82020-21 13,772 3.1 10,738 2.0 3,034 7.52021-22 13,910 1.0 10,823 0.8 3,087 1.72022-23 13,681 -1.6 10,666 -1.5 3,015 -2.32023-24 14,456 5.7 11,281 5.8 3,175 5.32024-25 14,581 0.9 11,388 0.9 3,193 0.62025-26 14,844 1.8 11,579 1.7 3,265 2.32026-27 14,391 -3.1 11,223 -3.1 3,168 -3.02027-28 14,470 0.5 11,288 0.6 3,182 0.4

Note: Horizontal line delimits actual from projected numbers.

Note: WICHE "Historical" data may differ from UH IRO compiled data shown in the MAPS reports on the High School Background of First-Time Students.

SOURCE: "Knocking at the Door, Projections of High School Graduates;" December 2012; WICHE.

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