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Strategy Renaissance CapitalX January 2016

Figure 38: Performance, $ (31 Dec 09 = 100) Figure 39: Economic outlook

CZK 2015 2016 2017

AA-/A1 3.9 2.6 2.60.2% 17,330 18,020 18,663

MXCZ 10.5 10.5 10.6

12.5 0.5 1.9 2.0

-9.2% 1.7 1.2 0.7

1.3 -1.8 -1.1 -1.0

0.6

19.4

6.5

3

18.2PX

38.7

13

23.9

Note: EPS growth excludes -ve to +ve earnings changes

Figure 40: 3MADTV, $mn Figure 41: Valuations vs EM, 12M Fwd P/E (x)

Figure 42: MSCI sector weights Figure 43: Changes in consensus earnings estimates, past 12 mths

Real GDP (% YoY)

C/A balance (% of GDP)

Government balance (% of GDP)

CPI (year-end, %YoY)

3M ADTV ($mn)

GDP/Capita, $

Population, mn

Figure 37: Key data

Local Currency

S&P / Moody's RatingWeight in MSCI EM (%)

Czech Republic

3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cosLocal Index

MktCap ($bn)

Trailing P/B

Beta to em

MSCI Full MktCap, $bn

MSCI free float MktCap, $b

No. of Companies

MSCI Index

2016 P/E

2016 EPS Growth

No. of Companies

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

J

an-10

Jul-10

J

an-11

Jul-11

J

an-12

Jul-12

J

an-13

Jul-13

J

an-14

Jul-14

J

an-15

Jul-15

J

an-16

MSCI Czech Republic, $ MSCI EM, $

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Czech Republic 3M ADTV ($mn)MSCI Czech Republic 3M ADTV ($mn)

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

2015 2016 2017

6

7

89

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Czech Republic EM

48%

42%

10%

Financials

Utilities

Telecoms

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Figure 44: Index and stock data

MktCap 12MF Trail 12MF Analys MSCI

($mn) 1M 3M 12M P/E (x) PBV (x) RoE (%) Recs wgt (%)

MXCZ 19,402 -1.1 -7.9 -17.6 12.5 1.3 8.9 52 0.21

KOMB CK 7,916 2.7 1.1 2.6 14.8 1.9 12.4 20 48.5

CEZ CK 9,038 -4.9 -15.9 -29.2 10.2 0.9 8.2 24 41.6TELEC CK 3,245 3.8 11.9 279.3 16.8 4.5 29.8 8 9.9

RBAG CP 12,410 -8.7 -1.1 33.7 10.4 1.0 9.7 27 -

VIG CP 3,163 -10.9 -21.8 -42.7 7.6 0.6 7.6 14 -

STOCK CP 376 -9.0 -35.0 -38.7 11.9 1.0 8.8 6 -

TABAK CP 1,364 2.3 5.4 12.9 14.4 5.0 29.6 5 -

PEGAS CP 260 -4.7 -8.8 4.8 10.0 1.5 9.1 5 -

UNIPE CP 1,157 -1.4 5.8 13.4 6.7 0.8 12.4 2 -

CETV CP 331 -10.0 18.3 -6.5 na 3.1 -18.4 6 -

FOREG CP 176 4.0 15.4 -32.8 16.1 5.4 22.9 5 -

PLG CP 98 0.4 0.9 13.7 18.7 1.9 8.9 3 -

NWR CP - . - . - . na na na -

Ticker Name Sector $ PerformanceFF Mkt Cap

($mn)

3MADTV

($mn)

18.2

Komercni Banka Financials 3,164 8.5

MSCI Czech Republic 6,472

Cez As Utilities 2,663

2.4

Vienna Insurance Financials 949 0.4

8.4O2 Czech Republi Telecoms 646 2.5

Erste Group Bank Financials 9,399

207 0.9

Unipetrol Materials 154 0.2

0.1

Philip Morris Cr Cons. Staples 305 0.3

Stock Spirits Gr Cons. Staples 330

Pegas Nonwovens Cons. Disc.

Pivovary Lobkowi Cons. Staples 20 0.1

New World R-A Sh Materials 8 0.0

Central Euro M-A Cons. Disc. 154 0.1

Fortuna Entertai Cons. Disc. 57 0.1

30

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Figure 45: Population, '000 Figure 46: Export destinations, total $172bn

Figure 47: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 48: Czech Republic - koruna

Figure 49: Bank lending growth vs GDP Figure 50: Real GDP % change, YoY

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,0007,000

8,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

20

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Current account balance (% of GDP) RHS CPI (average % YoY)

60

70

80

90

100

110

1201015

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan-00

Dec-00

Nov-01

Oct-02

Sep-03

Aug-04

Jul-05

Jun-06

May-07

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-13

Sep-14

Aug-15

CZK vs $ CZK vs EUR Czech REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY)

4.9

6.46.9

5.5

2.7

-4.8

2.3 2.0

-0.9 -0.5

2.0

3.9

2.6 2.6 2.2

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.70.8

0.9

EU

EuroArea

Germany

Slovakia

Poland

UK

France

Austria

Italy

Hungary

% of total exports Value ($bn), 2014, RHS

31

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Figure 51: CPI (%YoY) and central bank policy rates (%) Figure 52: Credit growth

Figure 53: Manufacturing PMI Figure 54: Industrial output and producer prices (%YoY)

Figure 55: Trade balance Figure 56: Retail sales (%YoY)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

67

8

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

CPI, % YoY Key Policy Rate, %

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Credit growth, % YoY

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Trade balance, EUR mn Trade balance, $mn

4042

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15

Manufacturing PMI (SA) (50= no change)

-25-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-06

Aug-06

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-08

Dec-08

Jul-09

Feb-10

Sep-10

Apr-11

Nov-11

Jun-12

Jan-13

Aug-13

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-15

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May-11

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13

Apr-14

Sep-14

Feb-15

Jul-15

Retail Sales, % YoY

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EGP 2015 2016 2017

B-/B3 4.2 4.3 4.50.2% n/a n/a n/a

MXEG 88.4 90.2 92.0

6.9 11.4 10.4 10.4

50.7% -3.7 -4.5 -4.5

1.5 -11.7 -9.4 -7.4

0.3

7.2

5.4

3

17.4

EGX100

25.2

100

53.2




Figure 57: Key data

Egypt

S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)

Local Currency

MSCI Index Population, mn

Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $

2016 EPS Growth C/A balance (% of GDP)

2016 P/E CPI (year-end, %YoY)

Beta to em

Trailing P/B Government balance (% of GDP)



3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI cos

No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)

Local Index

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

J

an-10

Jul-10

J

an-11

Jul-11

J

an-12

Jul-12

J

an-13

Jul-13

J

an-14

Jul-14

J

an-15

Jul-15

J

an-16

MSCI Egypt, $ MSCI EM, $

0

20

4060

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Egypt 3M ADTV ($mn)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

2015 2016 2017

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Egypt EM

89%

11%

Financials

Telecoms

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MXEG 7,197 -13.5 -21.2 -41.3 6.8 1.5 14.3 45 0.17

COMI EC 4,609 -13.1 -23.7 -30.9 6.1 2.3 29.8 22 76.1

TMGH EC 1,376 -18.1 -21.2 -56.0 8.1 0.4 5.0 13 12.6GTHE EC 1,226 -11.2 0.3 -61.9 13.7 5.6 15.0 10 11.3

EFID EC 1,330 -11.8 -12.2 30.2 22.1 10.1 38.1 9 -

ORAS EC 877 -11.6 -31.0 -47.4 na 1.0 na 2 -

JUFO EC 869 -7.3 -5.1 -33.5 14.1 2.8 18.0 13 -

HRHO EC 565 -16.9 -18.1 -54.9 6.3 0.4 6.1 9 -

EAST EC 976 -13.0 -23.6 -32.7 5.3 1.5 21.9 6 -

MNHD EC 794 -5.8 5.5 -13.9 14.0 7.1 39.1 7 -

AUTO EC 373 -23.9 -9.1 -52.5 7.5 0.9 10.8 10 -

SWDY EC 963 -5.3 -19.1 -35.5 6.5 1.2 18.3 12 -

CCAP EC 557 -16.9 -26.7 -60.1 na 0.6 na 1 -

PHDC EC 610 -10.2 5.8 -42.2 5.7 0.8 12.3 10 -

PIOH EC 523 0.1 -10.7 -45.7 na 0.9 na 1 -

ETEL EC 1,330 -2.3 -9.3 -51.6 5.4 0.4 7.0 14 -

CIEB EC 754 -6.2 -13.6 5.0 6.1 1.9 28.0 10 -

EKHO EC 478 -3.9 -15.5 -31.9 7.7 0.8 7.5 3 -

OCDI EC 323 -18.6 -15.5 -53.0 5.7 0.8 12.0 11 -

ORWE EC 386 -14.4 -37.4 -53.4 5.2 0.1 13.9 8 -

SKPC EC 697 -6.2 -19.8 -33.7 6.1 2.3 31.0 11 -

OTMT EC 389 -14.7 -28.4 -56.8 4.6 1.0 10.9 4 -

ESRS EC 511 -18.2 -24.0 -53.1 26.2 1.1 2.8 11 -

HELI EC 619 -5.7 3.2 -38.7 22.7 8.4 36.0 4 -

SVCE EC 243 -4.2 -7.0 -46.7 23.1 0.6 -3.9 5 -

ARCC EC 377 -21.5 -38.4 -53.3 6.0 2.4 25.6 9 -

UNIT EC 125 -8.8 -15.3 -30.0 na 4.2 na 0 -

ACGC EC 94 -5.8 -6.9 -33.3 na 0.5 na 0 -

AMOC EC 264 -3.5 -18.3 -58.6 3.8 1.0 na 2 -

AIND EC 100 -9.2 -17.8 -52.6 na na na 0 -

AMER EC 233 -9.1 -24.1 -53.8 na 1.3 na 2 -

COSG EC 99 -18.4 42.4 105.7 na na na 0 -

BTFH EC 79 -2.6 1.4 -48.6 na 1.8 na 0 -

ELKA EC 132 -0.9 -1.9 -2.5 na 1.2 na 0 -

EGTS EC 97 -13.3 -25.5 -45.5 4.0 0.8 18.0 4 -

MOIL EC 106 -13.3 -21.2 -50.9 na 0.4 0.5 3 -

EFIC EC 56 -7.2 -7.0 -36.4 na 0.5 na 3 -

MCQE EC 300 -4.8 -5.3 -6.0 7.2 2.9 22.3 4 -

UEGC EC 55 -11.6 -15.4 -46.7 na 0.6 na 0 -

IRON EC 395 52.9 58.6 -17.4 na na na 0 -

ELEC EC 49 -8.8 -15.0 -40.6 na 0.7 na 1 -

. . - . na . na -

$ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Egypt 5,449 17.4

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV

10.0

T M G Holding Financials 688 3.4

Commercial Intl Financials 4,148

2.2

Edita Food Indus Cons. Staples 1,310 0.4

Global Telecom H Telecoms 613

1.1

Juhayna Food Ind Cons. Staples 426 0.7

Orascom Construc Industrials 877

3.9

Eastern Tobacco Cons. Staples 383 0.5

Efg-Hermes Financials 412

Gb Auto Cons. Disc. 350 0.8

Medinet Nasr Financials 379 1.0

Citadel Capital Financials 327 2.7

Elswedy Electri Industrials 344 0.5

Pioneers Holding Financials 276 1.2

Palm Hills Financials 299 3.6

1.0

Credit Agricole Financials 224 0.3

Telecom Egypt Telecoms 266

Oriental Weavers Cons. Disc. 205 0.3

Sidi Kerir Petro Materials 193 0.3

Egypt Kuwait Hol Financials 224 0.3

Six Of October Financials 210 1.1

Heliopolis Hous Financials 172 0.5

South Valley Cem Materials 110 0.2

Orascom Telecom Telecoms 188 4.6

Ezz Steel Materials 181 0.8

Arab Cotton Ginn Cons. Disc. 82 1.8

Alexandria Miner Materials 81 0.2

Arabian Cement C Materials 100 0.1

United Hous&Dev Financials 89 0.1

Cairo Oils And S Cons. Staples 68 0.4

Beltone Financia Financials 64 0.1

Arabia Investmen Financials 79 1.0

Amer Group Holdi Financials 77 2.0

Maridive & Oil S Energy 51 0.1

Egyptian Fin&Ind Materials 50 0.0

El Kahera Housin Financials 64 0.0

Egyptian Resorts Cons. Disc. 52 0.8

Egyptian Iron&St Materials 36 0.5

Egyptian Electri Industrials 34 0.2

Misr Cement Qena Materials 50 0.2

Elsaeed Contract Industrials 37 0.5

Egypt Chemical Materials .

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Figure 67: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 68: Egypt - pound


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

50

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


60

80

100

120

140

160

18023

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-00

Dec-00

Nov-01

Oct-02

Sep-03

Aug-04

Jul-05

Jun-06

May-07

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-13

Sep-14

Aug-15

EGP vs $ EGP vs EUR Egypt REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

78

9

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

EU

EuroArea

Italy

SaudiArabia

India

Turkey

USA

UK

Libya

UAE


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


4.1

4.5

6.87.1 7.2

4.75.1

1.82.2 2.1 2.2

4.2 4.3

4.5 4.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

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Figure 75: Trade balance Figure 76: Tourist arrivals, 000s

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1213

14

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

CPI, % YoY CB lending rate, % (RHS)

CB deposit rate, % (RHS)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15


-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Dec-04

Jul-05

Feb-06

Sep-06

Apr-07

Nov-07

Jun-08

Jan-09

Aug-09

Mar-10

Oct-10

May-11

Dec-11

Jul-12

Feb-13

Sep-13

Apr-14

Nov-14

Jun-15

C/A balance (% GDP) Goods and services balance (% GDP)

3537

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15


-8-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-40-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May-11

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13

Apr-14

Sep-14

Feb-15

Jul-15

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan-08

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-09

May-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Tourist Arrivals, 000s

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EUR 2015 2016 2017

B-/Caa3 -2.3 -1.3 2.70.4% 17,657 17,703 18,607

MXGR 10.9 10.9 10.8

12.0 1.5 0.6 7.0

77.1% 0.7 1.5 1.2

0.0 -4.2 -3.6 -2.4

1.1

20.4

13.6

10

100.5

ASE

38.3

60

111.3




Figure 77: Key data

Greece

S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)

Local Currency


Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $



Beta to em





No. of Companies

MktCap ($bn)

Local Index

3M ADTV ($mn)

No. of Companies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J

an-10

Jul-10

J

an-11

Jul-11

J

an-12

Jul-12

J

an-13

Jul-13

J

an-14

Jul-14

J

an-15

Jul-15

J

an-16

MSCI Greece, $ MSCI EM, $

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Greece 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Greece 3M ADTV ($mn)

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

2015 2016 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Greece EM

52%

24%

15%

6% 3%

FinancialsCons. Disc.TelecomsMaterialsUtilities

37

7/25/2019 EMEA pt1

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MXGR 20,380 -20.4 -44.4 -58.6 N/A N/A 0.0 2.4 120 0.43

ALPHA GA 3,053 -27.3 -72.1 -89.2 8.2 0.1 3.5 11 20.1

HTO GA 4,108 -13.2 -13.6 -2.5 12.0 1.7 12.5 18 15.0OPAP GA 2,280 -5.2 -22.2 -12.7 11.3 1.9 16.2 14 11.7

EUROB GA 1,842 -25.2 -76.0 -93.5 12.7 0.0 1.0 11 11.5

ETE GA 2,486 -24.2 -97.7 -98.3 na 0.0 3.0 9 10.9

TPEIR GA 1,773 -36.0 -98.0 -99.7 26.0 0.0 1.6 13 9.7

BELA GA 1,440 -0.2 11.1 4.7 11.8 1.6 12.5 11 7.9

TITK GA 1,479 -4.2 -19.7 -17.9 17.3 0.8 5.5 13 6.2

FFGRP GA 1,045 -14.4 -24.5 -47.9 5.8 0.7 10.7 11 3.8

PPC GA 841 -10.4 -38.2 -33.0 6.6 0.1 2.3 9 3.1

EEE GA 7,335 -6.1 -13.7 22.4 20.8 2.3 11.1 18 -

BOC GA 1,354 -4.9 -18.6 -23.3 7.8 0.4 na 1 -

MOH GA 1,143 -5.4 -17.0 53.7 5.9 1.8 27.1 8 -

GRIV GA 796 -1.5 -13.0 -13.1 14.8 0.8 5.7 3 -

ELPE GA 1,258 -4.2 -30.8 -3.7 5.5 0.7 13.7 9 -

EXAE GA 311 -16.3 -20.1 -16.1 18.5 1.6 8.3 9 -

MYTIL GA 410 -10.2 -35.3 -41.0 4.9 0.4 8.3 8 -

AEGN GA 558 2.3 -2.1 -4.0 6.8 2.0 34.0 8 -

METTK GA 397 -0.6 -19.9 -26.5 6.8 0.7 8.5 8 -

LAMDA GA 322 -9.0 -20.5 27.6 na 0.8 na 0 -

ELLAKTOR G 222 -18.0 -38.5 -37.6 na 0.2 2.9 5 -

EYDAP GA 516 -8.3 -23.0 -23.3 10.0 0.5 5.3 2 -

INLOT GA 201 6.3 -24.5 -15.8 na 1.2 -13.0 2 -

FOYRK GA 147 -5.9 -8.1 -10.9 36.2 0.9 3.7 6 -

SAR GA 266 -5.6 -6.2 -4.4 11.2 1.5 12.0 4 -

TENERGY GA 249 -12.7 -28.3 -4.8 10.4 0.7 6.2 4 -

GEKTERNA G 150 -8.4 -32.1 -29.4 4.7 na 10.2 3 -

VIO GA 341 -13.2 -42.9 -43.9 na na na 0 -

PLAKR GA 165 -6.9 -4.8 -1.8 na 0.9 na 0 -

OLTH GA 257 -4.2 -10.4 25.5 na 1.9 na 0 -

PPA GA 359 -0.5 -19.3 23.4 30.8 1.8 na 2 -

FRIGO GA 88 -14.2 -29.4 -2.8 na na 6.4 3 -

MIG GA 73 -0.2 -19.7 -59.2 na 0.1 na 0 -

ELBA GA 135 -11.9 -38.2 -8.3 na 0.2 na 0 -

OTOEL GA 134 -5.0 -8.3 8.6 na 0.6 na 1 -

INTRK GA 49 16.7 -3.3 -10.1 na 0.2 na 0 -

IASO GA 32 -15.4 -10.6 -24.9 na 0.3 na 0 -

EUPIC GA 41 -6.8 -10.2 -1.0 na 0.5 na 0 -

KORRES GA 51 -8.6 -4.6 0.9 na 2.5 na 0 -

PLAT GA 65 -1.4 -1.7 32.9 na 0.5 na 0 -

EYAPS GA 111 -1.3 -14.0 7.6 6.2 0.7 8.2 1 -

KYRM GA 62 7.7 -0.5 23.8 na 1.2 na 0 -

KRI GA 61 -6.0 -1.9 2.2 na 1.3 na 0 -MLS GA 47 -5.6 -3.2 -17.6 na 1.9 na 0 -

IATR GA 66 13.0 7.0 -13.6 na 0.9 na 0 -

SOLK GA 114 -15.5 -21.9 1.4 273.0 0.7 na 1 -

OLYMP GA 31 -1.4 -21.0 -9.8 na 0.1 na 0 -

KLEM GA 36 -2.7 -18.8 -14.8 na 0.4 na 0 -

ANEMOS GA . - . - . . . na -

3MADTV $ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Greece 13,617 100.5

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap

35.9

Hellenic Telecom Telecoms 2,091 6.4

Alpha Bank Ae Financials 2,739

6.8

Eurobank Ergasia Financials 1,545 15.4

Opap Sa Cons. Disc. 1,607

18.5

Piraeus Bank Financials 1,297 12.2

Natl Bank Greece Financials 1,453

2.5

Titan Cement Co Materials 854 0.9

Jumbo Sa Cons. Disc. 1,083

Public Power Cor Utilities 424 2.8

Ff Group Cons. Disc. 524 1.4

Bank Of Cyprus Financials 1,027 1.0

Coca-Cola Hbc Ag Cons. Staples 3,644 1.1

Grivalia Propert Financials 303 0.5

Motor Oil-Hellas Energy 677 1.4

Hellenic Exchang Financials 293 0.8

Hellenic Petro Energy 296 0.6

Metka Sa Industrials 198 0.4

Lamda Developmen Financials 155 0.1

Mytilineos Hldgs Materials 279 0.8

Aegean Airlines Industrials 226 0.3

Intralot S.A. Cons. Disc. 123 0.1

Fourlis Sa Cons. Disc. 109 0.2

Ellaktor Sa Industrials 155 0.3

Eydap Water Utilities 148 0.2

Gek Terna Holdin Industrials 88 0.2

Viohalco Sa Materials 75 0.2

Sarantis Cons. Staples 108 0.1

Terna Energy Sa Utilities 92 0.2

Piraeus Port Aut Industrials 63 0.1

Frigoglass Saic Industrials 49 0.1

Plastika Kritis Materials 70 0.0

Thessaloniki Por Industrials 66 0.0

Autohellas Sa Industrials 35 0.0

Intracom Sa-Reg Industrials 33 0.0

Marfin Investmen Financials 42 0.1

Elval Holdings S Materials 36 0.0

Korres Natural P Cons. Staples 26 0.0

Thrace Plastics Materials 25 0.0

Iaso S.A. Healthcare 29 0.0

European Relianc Financials 28 0.0

Kri-Kri Milk Cons. Staples 22 0.0Mls Multimedia IT 20 0.0

Thessaloniki Wat Utilities 23 0.0

Fhl I Kiriakidis Materials 23 0.0

Kleemann Hellas Industrials 12 0.0

Eltech Anemos S. Utilities .

Athens Medical Healthcare 17 0.0

Corinth Pipe Materials 16 0.0

Technical Olympi Industrials 12 0.0

38

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Figure 87: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 88: Greece - euro


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,0007,000

8,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105110

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.61.7

Jan-00

Dec-00

Nov-01

Oct-02

Sep-03

Aug-04

Jul-05

Jun-06

May-07

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-13

Sep-14

Aug-15

EUR vs $ Greece REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1416

18

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.40.45

0.5

EU

EuroArea

Turkey

Italy

Germany

Bulgaria

Cyprus

UK

SaudiArabia

Egypt


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


5.0

0.9

5.8

3.5

-0.4

-4.4-5.4

-8.9

-6.6

-3.9

0.8

-2.3-1.3

2.7 3.1

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

39

7/25/2019 EMEA pt1

12/20





-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

45

6

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

CPI, % YoY ECB refinancing rate

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%25%

30%

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15


-5000

-4500

-4000

-3500

-3000

-2500-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-11

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15


30

35

40

45

50

55

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15


-20-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-06

Aug-06

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-08

Dec-08

Jul-09

Feb-10

Sep-10

Apr-11

Nov-11

Jun-12

Jan-13

Aug-13

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-15

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-08

Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May-11

Oct-11

Mar-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Nov-13

Apr-14

Sep-14

Feb-15

Jul-15

Retail Sales, % YoY 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Retai l Sales, % YoY)

40

7/25/2019 EMEA pt1

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HUF 2015 2016 2017

BB+/Ba1 3.0 2.5 2.30.3% 12,021 12,606 13,306

MXHU 9.9 9.8 9.8

11.1 2.0 2.4 3.0

52.5% 5.0 4.3 3.7

1.2 -2.7 -2.3 -2.2

1.1

14.4

9.1

3

31.0

BUX

.

14

32.6




3M ADTV ($mn)

MktCap ( bn)

No. of Companies


Local Index


No. of Companies

Beta to em






S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $

Figure 97: Key data

Local Currency

Hungary

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

J

an-10

Jul-10

J

an-11

Jul-11

J

an-12

Jul-12

J

an-13

Jul-13

J

an-14

Jul-14

J

an-15

Jul-15

J

an-16

MSCI Hungary, $ MSCI EM, $

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Hungary 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Hungary 3M ADTV ($mn)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

2015 2016 2017

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Hungary EM

51%

30%

19%

Financials

Healthcare

Energy

41

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MXHU 14,405 -0.6 7.1 41.8 11.0 1.2 10.8 42 0.29

OTP HB 5,882 0.0 4.9 56.2 9.9 1.4 12.0 20 51.0

RICHT HB 3,661 2.3 14.8 43.0 18.1 1.7 8.5 9 29.8MOL HB 5,074 -2.3 7.5 20.4 8.7 0.8 9.1 13 19.2

MTELEKOM HB 1,451 -2.8 0.9 5.9 12.8 na 6.7 12 -

GSPARK HB 88 3.2 1.6 22.7 na 3.6 na 0 -

FHB HB 177 11.1 10.2 6.3 na 0.8 na 0 -

ANY HB 53 3.2 7.3 14.5 na 2.6 na 1 -

PANNONIA HB 35 8.4 10.1 -9.7 na na na 1 -

ZWACK HB 126 1.1 4.6 15.6 na 6.9 na 0 -

ELMU HB 532 1.4 5.9 65.9 na 1.0 na 0 -

EMASZ HB 241 -2.1 -1.8 49.9 na 1.0 na 0 -

PANNERGY HB 25 -5.4 -11.7 7.1 na 0.8 na 0 -

RABA HB 62 -1.3 -4.2 10.1 na 1.1 na 0 -

APPENINN HB - . . . na na na -Appenninn Holdin Financials .

Pannergy Plc Utilities 17 0.0

Raba Plc Industrials 16 0.0

Elmu Nyrt Utilities 22 0.0

Emasz Utilities 22 0.0

Cig Pannonia Lif Financials 30 0.1

Zwack Unicum Rt Cons. Staples 23 0.0

Fhb Mortgage Ban Financials 43 0.1

Any Sec Printing Industrials 31 0.1

Magyar Telekom Telecoms 591 1.2

Graphisoft Park Financials 44 0.0

Richter Gedeon N Healthcare 2,721 9.0Mol Energy 1,761 4.2

MSCI Hungary 9,125 31.0

Otp Bank Plc Financials 4,642 17.9

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV $ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

42

7/25/2019 EMEA pt1

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Source: IMF DOTS

Figure 107: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 108: Hungary - forint


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


60

70

80

90

100

110

120100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-00

Dec-00

Nov-01

Oct-02

Sep-03

Aug-04

Jul-05

Jun-06

May-07

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-13

Sep-14

Aug-15

HUF vs $ HUF vs EUR Hungary REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0102030405060708090100

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.70.8

0.9

EU

EuroArea

Germany

Austria

Romania

Slovakia

Italy

France

Poland

CzechRepublic


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

Change in lending as % of GDP Real GDP (% YoY) 4.84.3 4.0

0.5 0.9

-6.6

0.81.8

-1.5

1.5

3.63.0

2.5 2.3 2.1

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

43

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Source: Bloomberg Source: IMF IFS


Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1012

14

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

CPI, % YoY Key policy rate (%)

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jan-05

Aug-05

Mar-06

Oct-06

May-07

Dec-07

Jul-08

Feb-09

Sep-09

Apr-10

Nov-10

Jun-11

Jan-12

Aug-12

Mar-13

Oct-13

May-14

Dec-14

Jul-15


-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15


-30-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

Industr ia l volumes, %YoY (SWDA) PPI, % YoY (RHS)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

02

4

6

8

10

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

Retail Sales, % YoY

44

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PLN 2015 2016 2017

BBB+/A2 3.5 3.5 3.61.3% 12,662 13,390 14,217

MXPL 38.0 38.0 38.0

11.2 0.1 1.6 2.2

-2.4% -0.5 -1.0 -1.8

1.0 -2.8 -2.5 -2.6

1.0

76.8

40.7

23

157.4

WIG

229.5

384

190.6




Source for all tables and charts: IMF, Bloomberg, MSCI

MktCap ($bn)

No. of Companies

3M ADTV ($mn)


Local Index


No. of Companies

Beta to em






S&P / Moody's Rating Real GDP (% YoY)Weight in MSCI EM (%) GDP/Capita, $

Figure 117: Key data

Local Currency

Poland

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

J

an-10

Jul-10

J

an-11

Jul-11

J

an-12

Jul-12

J

an-13

Jul-13

J

an-14

Jul-14

J

an-15

Jul-15

J

an-16

MSCI Poland, $ MSCI EM, $

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Poland 3M ADTV ($mn) MSCI Poland 3M ADTV ($mn)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16

2015 2016 2017

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-10

May-10

Sep-10

Jan-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

May-12

Sep-12

Jan-13

May-13

Sep-13

Jan-14

May-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

May-15

Sep-15

Jan-16

Poland EM

47%

19%

12%

9%

8% 3%2%

Financials

Energy

Utilities

Materials

Cons. Disc.

Cons.Staples

Telecoms

45

7/25/2019 EMEA pt1

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MXPL 76,831 -11.9 -18.4 -30.8 11.2 1.0 7.6 402 1.30

PKO PW 7,487 -16.0 -19.5 -34.9 10.9 1.0 9.1 26 12.7

PKN PW 6,610 -12.2 -4.4 4.4 7.4 1.2 14.6 22 12.0PZU PW 6,851 -10.7 -17.2 -41.6 11.2 2.3 20.6 16 10.8

PEO PW 8,789 -11.4 -12.5 -31.4 16.4 1.6 9.1 27 10.7

PGE PW 6,196 -3.6 -6.8 -36.0 8.4 0.6 6.7 18 6.8

PGN PW 7,340 -8.2 -29.5 8.6 12.2 1.0 6.8 16 5.4

BZW PW 6,258 -14.8 -19.5 -31.9 13.2 1.3 10.1 22 5.3

KGH PW 2,847 -15.1 -38.8 -49.5 12.3 0.4 3.1 22 4.8

LPP PW 2,393 -13.8 -32.3 -35.2 18.6 5.6 22.3 20 4.1

ATT PW 2,507 -1.5 10.4 34.8 16.2 1.6 9.1 11 2.7

MBK PW 3,200 -8.5 -18.8 -40.0 12.2 1.1 8.9 18 2.7

EUR PW 1,861 0.9 3.7 37.8 26.5 7.5 22.7 20 2.7

OPL PW 2,052 -10.2 -13.1 -34.9 79.3 0.7 0.9 20 2.5

CPS PW 3,308 -7.2 -16.9 -18.5 11.1 1.3 11.5 16 2.4

MIL PW 1,530 -14.1 -21.2 -37.2 11.2 1.0 9.0 15 1.9

ALR PW 1,067 -14.2 -29.2 -34.9 11.2 1.3 10.9 18 1.8

TPE PW 1,172 -11.5 -13.0 -50.1 6.1 0.3 4.3 14 1.7

ENG PW 1,371 0.8 -22.6 -41.2 8.7 0.6 7.4 13 1.7

CCC PW 1,118 -15.8 -34.2 -29.0 17.1 4.5 22.4 16 1.6

ENA PW 1,242 -4.5 -14.0 -35.9 7.6 0.4 4.4 10 1.5

LTS PW 1,199 -8.5 -9.6 1.5 8.3 0.6 6.8 15 1.5

BHW PW 2,354 -7.1 -11.0 -37.6 16.1 1.4 9.0 16 1.4

SNS PW 1,252 -8.7 -0.4 -19.6 12.5 2.3 16.8 11 1.2

SAN PW 61,037 -19.7 -27.3 -39.4 8.2 0.6 7.4 38 -

UCG PW 23,219 -31.1 -40.3 -36.3 7.4 0.4 5.5 36 -

CEZ PW 9,053 -4.8 -15.2 -28.7 10.2 0.9 8.2 24 -

MOL PW 5,074 -1.8 5.7 15.2 8.7 0.8 9.1 13 -

IIA PW 2,061 -17.6 -25.3 -19.5 17.3 0.5 2.2 10 -

TNX PW 7,455 0.0 5.3 2.3 8.6 0.8 9.2 19 -

KRK PW 2,233 -4.9 -7.6 -6.6 11.3 1.4 11.5 9 -

ACP PW 1,153 -5.5 -3.2 -5.3 12.5 0.9 6.4 7 -

BWO PW 2,000 -7.8 -5.1 2.3 14.9 1.1 7.8 9 -

ING PW 3,550 -13.6 -13.2 -25.9 14.7 1.4 9.5 13 -

IPF PW 761 -27.6 -47.1 -47.1 6.8 1.6 22.3 8 -

KTY PW 653 -15.4 -3.7 -7.8 13.2 2.1 15.1 10 -

EAT PW 957 -7.5 -2.0 48.5 23.7 3.8 13.9 7 -

KRU PW 699 -11.8 -13.8 29.7 13.4 3.8 24.8 8 -

GTC PW 780 -8.2 -2.1 35.6 8.2 1.2 8.9 8 -

KER PW 864 -12.6 -19.4 29.2 4.3 1.0 18.1 8 -

CIE PW 1,038 -12.7 4.0 48.5 9.7 3.4 27.4 11 -

BDX PW 1,194 -7.4 -14.2 14.3 17.9 9.3 43.7 11 -

CAR PW 808 -9.4 -6.5 -0.9 14.3 2.7 15.8 9 -

ECH PW 732 -4.6 0.3 0.1 17.7 0.9 na 4 -NET PW 473 -2.0 -3.2 -15.2 44.0 0.9 1.8 9 -

CDR PW 538 -3.5 -17.0 31.6 19.3 4.9 na 8 -

PKP PW 540 -30.2 -29.0 -49.7 8.7 0.6 6.4 10 -

GPW PW 359 -5.9 -17.1 -31.8 11.2 2.1 17.9 8 -

ORB PW 709 -2.2 2.5 36.6 16.8 1.7 na 2 -

MBW PW 554 -0.1 -0.5 83.2 35.6 2.8 8.3 3 -

AMC PW 314 -13.1 -5.5 40.6 12.5 2.2 17.6 5 -

SNK PW 315 -17.5 -20.4 -18.5 12.3 3.4 na 4 -

PGS PW 271 -1.9 -5.2 8.3 10.4 1.5 9.1 5 -

1AT PW 199 -7.7 -8.7 -12.4 8.9 na 13.6 1 -

GRJ PW 382 -12.4 -10.5 -23.7 9.6 1.4 na 4 -

FTE PW - . - . - . . . . -

Source: Bloomberg, MSCI

Atal Sa Cons. Disc. 199 0.0

Grajewo Materials 191 0.1

Forte Cons. Disc. .

Amica Cons. Disc. 313 0.3

Sanok Rubber Co Cons. Disc. 264 0.1

Pegas Nonwovens Cons. Disc. 215 0.0

Warsaw Stock Exc Financials 359 0.5

Orbis Cons. Disc. 336 0.3

Marie Brizard Wi Cons. Staples 334 0.0

Netia Telecoms 364 0.3

Cd Projekt Red IT 363 1.2

Pkp Cargo Sa Industrials 362 0.7

Budimex Industrials 488 0.5

Intercars Cons. Disc. 477 0.7

Echo Financials 394 0.1

Gtc Financials 585 0.9

Kernel Cons. Staples 525 2.2

Ciech Materials 503 1.2

Kety Materials 653 0.6

Amrest Holdings Cons. Disc. 613 1.0

Kruk Sa Financials 606 1.6

Buwog Ag Financials 1,020 0.0

Ingbsk Financials 888 0.7

International Pe Financials 725 0.0

Talanx Ag Financials 1,563 0.0

Krka Healthcare 1,475 0.0

Assecopol IT 1,040 2.0

Cez As Utilities 2,670 0.2

Mol Energy 2,434 0.2

Immofinanz Ag Financials 1,844 0.1

Synthos Materials 499 1.1

Banco Santander Financials 60,296 0.0

Unicredit Spa Financials 19,724 0.2

Enea Utilities 615 1.5

Lotos Energy 598 1.9

Handlowy Financials 581 1.1

Tauronpe Utilities 692 3.2

Energa Sa Utilities 689 4.4

Ccc Sa Cons. Disc. 672 3.2

Cyfrplsat Cons. Disc. 962 3.1

Millennium Financials 763 1.5

Alior Bank Sa Financials 741 3.4

Eurocash Cons. Staples 1,065 6.9

Orange Polska Sa Telecoms 1,000 5.4

Grupa Azoty Sa Materials 1,092 1.2

Mbank Sa Financials 1,128 2.3

Kghm Materials 1,919 18.0

Lpp Cons. Disc. 1,689 3.7

Pgnig Energy 2,161 7.3

Bzwbk Financials 2,169 4.5

Pekao Financials 4,368 16.4

Pge Sa Utilities 2,761 8.9

Pkn Orlen Energy 4,898 19.9Pzu Financials 4,417 18.5

$ Performance

($mn) ($mn)

MSCI Poland 40,671 157.4

Pkobp Financials 5,190 18.4

Ticker Name Sector FF Mkt Cap 3MADTV

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Source: UN Source: IMF

Figure 127: CPI avg %, C/A % of GDP Figure 128: Poland - zloty

Source: IMF Source: Bruegel, Bloomberg, Renaissance Capital


Source: IMF, Renaissance Capital Source: IMF

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

0-19 20-64 65+

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E


60

70

80

90

100

110

1201.52.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Jan-00

Dec-00

Nov-01

Oct-02

Sep-03

Aug-04

Jul-05

Jun-06

May-07

Apr-08

Mar-09

Feb-10

Jan-11

Dec-11

Nov-12

Oct-13

Sep-14

Aug-15

PLN vs $ PLN vs EUR Poland REER (Dec 07 = 100)

Weaker

Stronger

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

180

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.70.8

0.9

EU

EuroArea

Germany

UK

CzechRepublic

France

Italy

Netherlands

Russia

Sweden


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E


5.1

3.5

6.2

7.2

3.9

2.6

3.7

4.8

1.8 1.7

3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

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Source: Bloomberg Source: IMF IFS





-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

56

7

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

CPI, % YoY Key policy rate (%)

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan-09

Jun-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Sep-10

Feb-11

Jul-11

Dec-11

May-12

Oct-12

Mar-13

Aug-13

Jan-14

Jun-14

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15


-12000

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08

Jun-09

Dec-09

Jun-10

Dec-10

Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15


4042

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15

May-15

Jul-15

Sep-15

Nov-15


-20-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Jan-06

Aug-06

Mar-07

Oct-07

May-08

Dec-08

Jul-09

Feb-10

Sep-10

Apr-11

Nov-11

Jun-12

Jan-13

Aug-13

Mar-14

Oct-14

May-15

Dec-15

Industrial volumes, %YoY PPI, % YoY (RHS)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dec-05

Jul-06

Feb-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Nov-08

Jun-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Mar-11

Oct-11

May-12

Dec-12

Jul-13

Feb-14

Sep-14

Apr-15

Nov-15

Retail Sales, % YoY

EMEA pt1

Documents

Transcript of EMEA pt1