ELECTIONS

SHANG E. HASOGANG UNIVERSITY

POL 3162Introduction to American

Politics

Overview

APT, Chapter 8

What role do elections play in a democracy?How do elections work in the United States?How do candidates win elections?How do voters decide?Do elections matter?

The 2008 Presidential Election

Revisiting the 2008 Presidential Election

• President Obama proves the unpredictability of American elections. Who he had to beat to become President:

• Hillary Clinton was a former First Lady; had deep connections to Democratic Party Leaders; and had demonstrated her ability to win elections by twice winning votes to be U.S. Senator from NY

• John Edwards had been the previous Vice-Presidential candidate and U.S. Senator; possessed boyish good looks; immensely wealthy trial lawyer; and had not yet been exposed for having a child out-of-wedlock with his campaign videographer while his wife battled recurring breast cancer.

• John McCain was a Vietnam War veteran and war hero; he had been a U.S. Senator for over two decades; had authored a best-selling memoir; and was also the author of major legislation (e.g., “campaign finance reform”, a.k.a., the McCain-Feingold act.)

American Elections: Basic Facts

Types of Elections Presidential Congressional Gubernatorial Local (Mayor, City Council, School District, etc) State or Local Initiatives – Direct Democracy

Elections: Constitutional Requirements for Candidates

Presidential Elections: Basic Facts

Popular vote: the votes cast by citizens in an election

Electoral vote: votes cast by members of the electoral college; after a presidential candidate wins the popular vote in a given state, that candidate’s slate of electors cast electoral votes for the candidate on behalf of that state

Presidential Election Results,2000-2012

Electoral College (based on the 2010 Census)

Presidential Election in 2008

Presidential Election, 2012

Elections: Electoral Votes and Swing States

The 2000 Presidential Election

Something Was Wrong in Florida…

What Happened in 2000? The Butterfly Did It!!!

Good Job, Palm Beach County, FL!

The Final Result in Florida 2000 (After recounts stopped by the Supreme Court)

Candidates Number of Votes Received

Percentages

George W. Bush 2,912,790 48.847

Al Gore 2,912,253 48.838

What Do Elections Do?

Select representatives: Because voters do not make direct decisions about major policy issues facing the country, elections allow voters to select candidates who represent their views.Incumbent – A politician running for re-

election to the office that he or she already holds

Challenger – A politician running for an office that he or she does not hold at the time of election. Challengers run against incumbents or in open-seat elections

In congressional races, incumbents have an enormous advantage, winning a trip back to Washington D.C. over 90 percent of the time. (incumbent advantage)

Elections: Percentage of Incumbents Reelected

What Do Elections Do? (con’t)

Create Accountability to the Voters: Through retrospective evaluation, voters decide whether the incumbents have represented their interests on what is most important to them; if the incumbent has, they will vote to reelect.

In the case of the presidential election, the key issue is obviously THE ECONOMY!

How Do American Elections Work?

• All federal candidates and most state candidates must win two different elections to serve in office:

i. First, they must win the primary election, in which they run against other candidates from the same political primary.

ii. Second, they must win the general election, in which they run against candidates from different political parties.

Nomination – The selection of a particular candidate to run for office in a general election as a representative of his or her political party

General election – The election in which voters cast ballots for House members, Senators, and a president and vice-president.

How Do American Elections Work?

Most House and Senate contests involve plurality voting: the candidate who gets the most votes wins

Some states use majority voting: a candidate needs a majority (more than 50% of the vote) to win Runoff election: under a majority voting system, a

second election held only if no candidate wins a majority of the votes in the first election

Presidential Elections

The Nominating Process State-level primaries and caucuses Select delegates who attend their party’s national

convention and vote to select their party’s nominee for the presidency

The National Convention Formally elects candidate Introduces VP candidate

Electoral Campaigns

Potential challengers consider whether to run: Is the incumbent retiring (open seat)? Is the incumbent vulnerable (competitive district)? Are national tides moving in one direction? Financial decisions

Campaign Strategies

Wholesale politics – Targeting a mass audience (e.g., TV ads)

Retail politics – Targeting a small group with intense attention (e.g., approaching families individually at a county fair)

Name recognition – Knowing a candidate’s name makes a voter more inclined to vote for that candidate.

Voter mobilization – Motivating voters to get out to the polls on Election Day

Building platforms – a candidate’s stances on issues and promises about how the candidate will act in office. Much more important than the party platform.

Attack ads – also known as “contrast” or “negative” ads by people who defend them on the basis that, although negative, they make voters aware of major issues.

Use of technology – Remember that Youtube was invented in 2005. Prior to that, “viral video” was not an important part of campaigning.

Campaign Finance

FEC – the Federal Election Commission is in charge of administering election laws.

Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (BCRA, 2002) – aka “McCain-Feingold” legislation; it outlawed soft money

Hard money – money to help elect/defeat specific candidates

Soft money – money used for mobilization and party building

Campaign Finance (con’t)

Political action committee (PAC): a type of organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates those funds to campaign for or against candidates, ballot initiatives, or legislation.

Super PACs: may not make contributions to candidate campaigns or parties, but may engage in unlimited political spending independently of the campaigns. Unlike traditional PACs, they can raise funds from individuals, corporations, unions, and other groups without any legal limit on donation size.

Campaign Finance (con’t)

Citizens United v. FEC (2010) – changed campaign finance rules by removing all restrictions on independent efforts funded by corporations and unions (overturned McCain-Feingold law) Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization, made a

political documentary on Hillary Clinton to critically evaluate her, and planed to air it before the Democratic primaries in 2008.

The federal government blocked it. The Supreme Court decided in favor of Citizens United.

Limits on campaign finance are challenging to implement due to free speech concerns. (the First Amendment prohibited the government from restricting independent political expenditures by a nonprofit corporation.)

Koch Brothers

Koch Brothers (con’t)

Contribution Limits in the 2012 Elections

Candidate, Party, and Interest Group ElectionFund-Raising, 2006–2012

Elections: Turnout in Presidential and Midterm Elections, 1992–2014

Elections: Groups and Votes in the 2014 Congressional Election

What Affects Voting Behavior?

People use shortcuts to make decisions with limited information. They include: One’s partisanship (the single best predictor of

one’s vote) Incumbency Candidate’s personal traits (gender, race, age,

religious beliefs) Retrospective evaluations (of macr0-economic

conditions)

Elections Matter

Elections matter because candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties stand for different things and make different decisions in office. (really???)

President Obama’s election, for instance, has already seen the historic passage of healthcare reform, tightening of financial regulation, and a significant stimulus package for the economy.