Economic Indicators March

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Economic Indicators

Last update 14.3.2014

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Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – March 2014

Europe:

• Consensus March GDP forecast for WE improved from 1,4% to 1,5% for 2014.

• The EU industrial confidence improved slightly compared to last month while the consumer

confidence indicator came somewhat down from its January level.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany continued to rise in February. The German

economy is holding its own in a changeable global climate.

• GDP growth continued to recover modestly in Q4 2013, representing a third straight quarter of

expansion and followed one and a half years of contraction. The 1,2% surge in exports helped

to drive activity as well as a 1,1% jump in capital spending. Monthly data suggests that the

recovery continued to broaden.

US:

• Consensus March GDP forecast for the US decreased slightly from 2,9% to 2,8% for 2014.

• GDP, consumption and production forecasts have been downgraded on the back of the impact of

extreme cold on Q1 activity. It is hard for the time being to assess whether the Q1 slowdown is

temporary, based on extraordinary weather conditions or signifies further underlying weakness.

Japan:

• The March GDP growth forecast for Japan came down again from 1,6% to 1,4% for 2014.

• Q4 GDP growth disappointed ahead of the consumption tax hike. Rather soft private

consumption as well as capital spending and export figures contributed to this disappointing

result.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28

Source: Eurostat Mar 14

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28


-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index


0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

14

/1

15

/1

0,9

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED, Eurostat Mar 14

Jan 14; 0,8

Mar 14; 0,25

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate


10,8

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Ja

n 1

2

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

%

Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Ja

n 1

4

Jan

15

Industrial confidence within EU 28 improved slightly in February. Industry remains

in a fairly positive mood.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 28 deteriorated somewhat in February.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27

Source: Eurostat Feb 14

60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

14

Q1

79,4

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The Ifo World Economic climate further brightens in Q1 2014

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14

The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly again in Q1 2014.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Feb 14



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Dec 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Feb 14


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Mar 14

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise in February. Assessments of

the current business situation were significantly better than last month. Expectations regarding

future business developments dipped slightly but remain optimistic. The German economy is

holding its own in a changeable global climate.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Mar 14

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany continued to rise in February. Assessments of

the current business situation were significantly better than last month. Expectations regarding

future business developments dipped slightly but remain optimistic. The German economy is

holding its own in a changeable global climate.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Mar 14, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Ja

n 1

0

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Jan

15

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry improved slightly from -2 to 0 in February.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – February 2014:

Current business situation and climate remained nearly unchanged

from last month while expectations continue to remain negative

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry remained muted and reached 11% in February after 9% in the

previous month.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – remains rather clouded, reaching 0% after -2% in the

previous month.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months remained negative

at -11%.

Source: IFO Mar 14, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13

Economic Indicators March

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