ECM BARU UJI KOINTEGRASI1. INDOECM BARU

Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/01/15 Time: 22:16

Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013

Included observations: 30 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-6.06046964.30718-0.0942430.9259

D(GMS)0.3052060.1023452.9821260.0074

D(DIR)1.4386040.2622785.4850240.0000

D(LN_ER)-35.8779116.75069-2.1418770.0447

D(LN_GNI)-54.9357027.92675-1.9671350.0632

GMS(-1)-0.2187760.148825-1.4700210.1571

DIR(-1)0.4282230.2185441.9594320.0641

LN_ER(-1)-3.9001435.472224-0.7127160.4843

LN_GNI(-1)0.8164092.5909830.3150960.7560

ECT(-1)-0.8247800.156258-5.2783070.0000

R-squared0.942001Mean dependent var-0.179130

Adjusted R-squared0.915901S.D. dependent var12.74308

S.E. of regression3.695475Akaike info criterion5.713297

Sum squared resid273.1307Schwarz criterion6.180363

Log likelihood-75.69945Hannan-Quinn criter.5.862715

F-statistic36.09233Durbin-Watson stat1.931588

Prob(F-statistic)0.000000

NORMALITAS

AUTO

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic0.524997Prob. F(2,18)0.6003

Obs*R-squared1.653533Prob. Chi-Square(2)0.4375

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/25/15 Time: 22:56

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-8.00138666.69615-0.1199680.9058

D(GMS)0.0288280.1093200.2637050.7950

D(DIR)-0.0031630.271939-0.0116310.9908

D(LN_ER)1.84313517.292220.1065880.9163

D(LN_GNI)10.6905030.821330.3468540.7327

GMS(-1)0.0122680.1539710.0796780.9374

DIR(-1)-0.0093060.225297-0.0413040.9675

LN_ER(-1)0.7406535.6535900.1310060.8972

LN_GNI(-1)0.1860522.6739390.0695800.9453

ECT(-1)0.0047320.1977630.0239290.9812

RESID(-1)0.0289350.2958270.0978110.9232

RESID(-2)-0.2891550.284878-1.0150130.3235

R-squared0.055118Mean dependent var3.21E-15

Adjusted R-squared-0.522310S.D. dependent var3.068925

S.E. of regression3.786499Akaike info criterion5.789935

Sum squared resid258.0763Schwarz criterion6.350414

Log likelihood-74.84903Hannan-Quinn criter.5.969237

F-statistic0.095454Durbin-Watson stat2.160968

Prob(F-statistic)0.999838

HETERO

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

F-statistic0.949317Prob. F(9,20)0.5068

Obs*R-squared8.979712Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.4391

Scaled explained SS3.151934Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.9580

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/25/15 Time: 22:55

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-103.361099.80632-1.0356150.3127

(D(GMS))^20.0100140.0161730.6192120.5428

(D(DIR))^2-0.0469370.072902-0.6438340.5270

(D(LN_ER))^242.26991215.09220.1965200.8462

(D(LN_GNI))^2510.7078647.84030.7883240.4398

GMS(-1)^2-0.0119260.012844-0.9285200.3642

DIR(-1)^20.0171060.0187120.9141360.3715

LN_ER(-1)^2-5.1261202.548688-2.0112780.0580

LN_GNI(-1)^20.2634950.1633591.6129820.1224

ECT(-1)^20.0566790.1587190.3571020.7248

R-squared0.299324Mean dependent var9.104356

Adjusted R-squared-0.015981S.D. dependent var11.63790

S.E. of regression11.73052Akaike info criterion8.023466

Sum squared resid2752.101Schwarz criterion8.490532

Log likelihood-110.3520Hannan-Quinn criter.8.172885

F-statistic0.949317Durbin-Watson stat2.259479

Prob(F-statistic)0.506843

Null Hypothesis: ECT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-StatisticProb.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic-5.9381130.0002

Test critical values:1% level-4.309824

5% level-3.574244

10% level-3.221728

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(ECT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/01/15 Time: 22:23

Sample (adjusted): 1985 2013

Included observations: 29 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

ECT(-1)-1.3625660.229461-5.9381130.0000

D(ECT(-1))0.3309720.1611022.0544260.0505

C-3.3061021.744770-1.8948640.0697

@TREND(1983)0.1690440.0961271.7585450.0909

R-squared0.622527Mean dependent var-0.056845

Adjusted R-squared0.577230S.D. dependent var6.574620

S.E. of regression4.274869Akaike info criterion5.870826

Sum squared resid456.8627Schwarz criterion6.059419

Log likelihood-81.12698Hannan-Quinn criter.5.929891

F-statistic13.74327Durbin-Watson stat2.006706

Prob(F-statistic)0.000017

2. THAILANDECM BARU

Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/27/15 Time: 08:08

Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013

Included observations: 30 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-27.9769828.54590-0.9800700.3388

D(GMS)0.0873000.0905780.9638150.3466

D(DIR)0.2182270.1669621.3070400.2060

D(LN_ER)12.304046.9505011.7702370.0919

D(LN_GNI)15.4380312.572931.2278790.2337

GMS(-1)0.0387160.1226570.3156430.7555

DIR(-1)-0.1024110.212751-0.4813650.6355

LN_ER(-1)0.4712963.2188950.1464150.8851

LN_GNI(-1)1.0245031.0809950.9477410.3546

ECT(-1)-0.8891710.200228-4.4407870.0003

R-squared0.653445Mean dependent var-0.051388

Adjusted R-squared0.497495S.D. dependent var2.421808

S.E. of regression1.716762Akaike info criterion4.179958

Sum squared resid58.94542Schwarz criterion4.647024

Log likelihood-52.69937Hannan-Quinn criter.4.329377

F-statistic4.190091Durbin-Watson stat2.108725

Prob(F-statistic)0.003665

NORMAL

AUTO

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic0.458988Prob. F(2,18)0.6391

Obs*R-squared1.455719Prob. Chi-Square(2)0.4829

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/27/15 Time: 08:09

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-3.74945330.20140-0.1241480.9026

D(GMS)-0.0016820.095364-0.0176390.9861

D(DIR)0.0262970.1755590.1497910.8826

D(LN_ER)-0.4432667.819778-0.0566850.9554

D(LN_GNI)1.83814814.008420.1312170.8971

GMS(-1)-0.0039830.127217-0.0313080.9754

DIR(-1)0.0199020.2210890.0900160.9293

LN_ER(-1)-0.2692853.332179-0.0808140.9365

LN_GNI(-1)0.1743761.1597580.1503560.8822

ECT(-1)0.3119910.3944680.7909150.4393

RESID(-1)-0.4333020.466797-0.9282450.3656

RESID(-2)-0.0594220.267566-0.2220830.8267

R-squared0.048524Mean dependent var-4.68E-15

Adjusted R-squared-0.532934S.D. dependent var1.425693

S.E. of regression1.765175Akaike info criterion4.263551

Sum squared resid56.08515Schwarz criterion4.824030

Log likelihood-51.95326Hannan-Quinn criter.4.442853

F-statistic0.083452Durbin-Watson stat1.911731

Prob(F-statistic)0.999916

HETERO

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

F-statistic1.064613Prob. F(9,20)0.4281

Obs*R-squared9.717063Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.3739

Scaled explained SS6.029747Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.7369

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/27/15 Time: 08:09

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-28.0014625.57248-1.0949840.2865

(D(GMS))^2-0.0256770.022655-1.1333970.2705

(D(DIR))^2-0.0395550.089251-0.4431860.6624

(D(LN_ER))^21.44702053.053060.0272750.9785

(D(LN_GNI))^247.63698182.81890.2605690.7971

GMS(-1)^2-0.0043730.005742-0.7616390.4552

DIR(-1)^20.0491770.0217422.2618750.0350

LN_ER(-1)^2-0.2006480.657015-0.3053940.7632

LN_GNI(-1)^20.0445180.0404551.1004080.2842

ECT(-1)^2-0.1975420.131066-1.5071900.1474

R-squared0.323902Mean dependent var1.964847

Adjusted R-squared0.019658S.D. dependent var3.339479

S.E. of regression3.306492Akaike info criterion5.490854

Sum squared resid218.6578Schwarz criterion5.957920

Log likelihood-72.36282Hannan-Quinn criter.5.640273

F-statistic1.064613Durbin-Watson stat1.872808

Prob(F-statistic)0.428102

ECT UNIT ROOT

Null Hypothesis: ECT has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-StatisticProb.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic-5.2019660.0011

Test critical values:1% level-4.296729

5% level-3.568379

10% level-3.218382

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(ECT)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 02/01/15 Time: 22:06

Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013

Included observations: 30 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

ECT(-1)-0.9965320.191568-5.2019660.0000

C0.3876650.6464560.5996780.5537

@TREND(1983)-0.0238230.036457-0.6534600.5190

R-squared0.500694Mean dependent var0.015678

Adjusted R-squared0.463708S.D. dependent var2.347656

S.E. of regression1.719234Akaike info criterion4.016275

Sum squared resid79.80570Schwarz criterion4.156394

Log likelihood-57.24412Hannan-Quinn criter.4.061100

F-statistic13.53751Durbin-Watson stat1.945080

Prob(F-statistic)0.000085

3. KOREA SELATANECM BARU

Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/22/15 Time: 16:45

Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013

Included observations: 30 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C30.5947636.338040.8419490.4098

D(GMS)0.0300570.0261801.1480990.2645

D(DIR)0.4083830.3062851.3333410.1974

D(LN_ER)-2.6673925.681583-0.4694800.6438

D(LN_GNI)-8.62774917.85253-0.4832790.6341

GMS(-1)0.0266060.0335190.7937560.4367

DIR(-1)-0.2052440.216639-0.9474020.3547

LN_ER(-1)-2.3435322.453864-0.9550370.3510

LN_GNI(-1)-0.4743891.227243-0.3865490.7032

RESID01(-1)-0.7737510.244294-3.1672890.0048

R-squared0.608638Mean dependent var-0.070449

Adjusted R-squared0.432525S.D. dependent var2.056440

S.E. of regression1.549135Akaike info criterion3.974472

Sum squared resid47.99639Schwarz criterion4.441538

Log likelihood-49.61708Hannan-Quinn criter.4.123891

F-statistic3.455955Durbin-Watson stat1.854172

Prob(F-statistic)0.010010

NORMALITAS

AUTO

Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:

F-statistic0.176095Prob. F(2,18)0.8400

Obs*R-squared0.575719Prob. Chi-Square(2)0.7499

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/27/15 Time: 07:57

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C-3.77541239.82795-0.0947930.9255

D(GMS)-0.0107400.033748-0.3182410.7540

D(DIR)-0.0447570.334056-0.1339790.8949

D(LN_ER)2.5170237.4369110.3384500.7389

D(LN_GNI)4.27368420.899780.2044850.8403

GMS(-1)-0.0111780.040010-0.2793800.7831

DIR(-1)0.0136750.2290450.0597050.9530

LN_ER(-1)0.7530373.0348590.2481290.8068

LN_GNI(-1)-0.0597291.288849-0.0463430.9635

RESID01(-1)-0.2826050.571283-0.4946840.6268

RESID(-1)0.3697420.6508350.5681040.5770

RESID(-2)0.1088310.3114420.3494420.7308

R-squared0.019191Mean dependent var-4.53E-15

Adjusted R-squared-0.580193S.D. dependent var1.286487

S.E. of regression1.617187Akaike info criterion4.088428

Sum squared resid47.07531Schwarz criterion4.648907

Log likelihood-49.32643Hannan-Quinn criter.4.267730

F-statistic0.032017Durbin-Watson stat1.950820

Prob(F-statistic)0.999999

HETERO

Heteroskedasticity Test: White

F-statistic0.679762Prob. F(9,20)0.7183

Obs*R-squared7.027209Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.6343

Scaled explained SS2.074649Prob. Chi-Square(9)0.9902

Test Equation:

Dependent Variable: RESID^2

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/27/15 Time: 07:58

Sample: 1984 2013

Included observations: 30

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

C4.93236821.116620.2335780.8177

(D(GMS))^2-4.06E-050.000646-0.0627690.9506

(D(DIR))^20.1154620.1260400.9160710.3705

(D(LN_ER))^2-0.52657515.49007-0.0339940.9732

(D(LN_GNI))^2272.6902169.63341.6075270.1236

GMS(-1)^2-7.83E-050.000545-0.1438340.8871

DIR(-1)^2-0.0210040.025888-0.8113440.4267

LN_ER(-1)^2-0.3985630.245962-1.6204280.1208

LN_GNI(-1)^20.0205890.0300130.6860130.5006

RESID01(-1)^20.0208340.1819130.1145290.9100

R-squared0.234240Mean dependent var1.599880

Adjusted R-squared-0.110352S.D. dependent var1.875582

S.E. of regression1.976361Akaike info criterion4.461594

Sum squared resid78.12010Schwarz criterion4.928659

Log likelihood-56.92391Hannan-Quinn criter.4.611012

F-statistic0.679762Durbin-Watson stat1.921344

Prob(F-statistic)0.718283

ECT UNIT ROOT

Null Hypothesis: RESID01 has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend

Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

t-StatisticProb.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic-4.4046000.0078

Test critical values:1% level-4.296729

5% level-3.568379

10% level-3.218382

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(RESID01)

Method: Least Squares

Date: 01/22/15 Time: 16:39

Sample (adjusted): 1984 2013

Included observations: 30 after adjustments

VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.

RESID01(-1)-0.8435690.191520-4.4046000.0002

C-0.0664500.562083-0.1182220.9068

@TREND(1983)0.0021100.0316760.0666190.9474

R-squared0.418207Mean dependent var-0.068191

Adjusted R-squared0.375111S.D. dependent var1.898531

S.E. of regression1.500787Akaike info criterion3.744495

Sum squared resid60.81373Schwarz criterion3.884615

Log likelihood-53.16743Hannan-Quinn criter.3.789321

F-statistic9.704134Durbin-Watson stat1.937218

Prob(F-statistic)0.000667