Demographics Point To An Increased Role For Training

Tom Gillaspy, State DemographerMn Dept of Administration

May 2009

Minnesota Has Been Very Successful

(Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road)

• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average

• Our population growth rate leads the frost belt

• We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators

• Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many Social/Economic Indicators

• 3rd percent of 16-64 employed (76.7%) Statistically tied with 6 states for first

• 2nd cost of living adjusted per capita income (OK DOC)

• 8th lowest poverty rate • 1st percent with health

insurance 2004-06 ave• 10th median family income 13%

above the nation• 2nd Kids Count 2008• 4th most livable state (Morgan

Quinto Press)

• 3rd lowest rate of disability among people age 21-64

• 2nd with at least high school degree (91%) statistically tied with Wyoming

• 11th with at least a bachelor’s degree

• 1st home ownership (75.2%)• 4th United Health Foundation

ranking of state healthiness 2008

Updated February 2009

Past PerformanceDoes Not EnsureFuture Results

Four Mega-Forces Will Shape Minnesota’s Economy

• Globalization• Technology• Energy prices• Demography

Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation

• It is not normal for a society to age• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and

2011 and beyond• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+

will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double

• Aging and economic growth will lead to challenges and opportunities not fully anticipated

Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

7/05 to7/06

7/06 to7/07

7/07 to7/08

7/08 to7/09

7/09 to7/10

7/10 to7/11

7/11 to7/12

Year Turning Age 62

Wor

ked

With

in P

ast 5

yea

rs

2005 ACS

From 2010 to 2020, Minnesota Will See Large Increases Age 50s and 60s

20,15036,190

47,3305,050

-30,680-9,980

47,95061,920

-2,680-63,650

-42,31054,240

102,960112,540

91,37041,400

8,44016,500

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Source: Minnesota State Demographic CenterNumbers are rounded

Competition For Future College Students Will Increase

6.8%

4.5%

-1.6% -2.2%

13.0%

-1.2%

-3.5% -3.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20

Perc

ent C

hang

e 18

-24 US

Mn

Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007. The 18 year oldpopulation, both Minnesota & nationally are projected to decline starting 2009.

Labor Force Growth Is About To Slow Sharply

1.52%

1.12%

0.75%

0.43%

0.10% 0.13%0.27%

0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%

1990-2000

2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35

Ave

Ann

ual C

hang

e

World Labor Force Growth SlowingProjected Change In Working Age Population (15-64)

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

Minnesota UnitedStates

Europe China Japan Rest ofAsia

SouthAmerica

Africa

Continent

Ann

ual %

Cha

nge

2000-102010-20

U.S. Census Bureau

Productivity Has Been Minnesota’s Competitive Advantage

It will be even more important inThe Next Generation EconomyThe Next Generation Economy

Productivity Remains The Key To Quality of Life In MinnesotaEconomic Growth=Labor Force Growth + Productivity GrowthProductivity growth comes fromPrivate investment—machines & processesPublic investment—roads, bridges, etcTechnology from research, public & privateSkills & abilities of workers—education &

training

The New 3 R’s for Economic Success

• Retention• Recruitment• Retraining