Program Planning for Maximum Impact

Spring Training Workshop Lena Etuk, Social DemographerApril 9, 2013

Varying purposes• Create new programming• Adjust current programming• End old programming

Different directions• Inputs-focused• Outcomes-focused

The Nature of Program Planning

Program Planning Cycle

1. Analyze the situation:

Needs Assessment

2. Set goal to address need

3. Design program to meet goal

4. Take stock of & gather resources

5. Plan program details

6. Implement

7. Evaluate

Maxim

um Im

pact

Zone

Needs Assessment

Phase IPre-

AssessmentIdentify needs

Phase IIAssessment

(optional)

Further identify needs

Phase IIIPost-

Assessment

PrioritizeMake decisions

Allocate resourcesImplement

Focus Today: PHASE I of NA

1. Get organized2. Form a Needs Assessment Committee (NAC)3. Find out what is already known or available from existing

data sources about:• What is• What should be• Causes of gap• Consequences of gap• Potential solutions for gap

4. Synthesize the data and decide to move to Phase II or Phase III

Phase I Needs Assessment Case Study

1. Issue of concern: rising Latino population, and not sure if RCE is/I am meeting their needs generally or needs for decision-making data• What can I do to help meet needs of Latino population?• What can I do to better inform decision makers about Latino population?

2. Review available statistics about the current Latino situation and the ideal situation

3. Make sense of the statistics4. Identify causes and consequences of gaps5. Determine if more data are needed

An approach to gathering existing statistics for needs assessment

Tell the story

Identify gaps

5. Make sense of trends

Integration

Immigrant policies

Political representation

Economics

Education

4. Explore related trends

Talk to experts

Latino advocacy groups

Review literature

3. Identify related trends

Demographic

Social

Economic

2. Explore sub-trends

Latinos over time and space

1. Explore overall trends

When you explore statistics look out for…

• Deviations from a benchmark• State• Nation• Similar communities• Target level• Larger geography or group of people• Particular time point• Representation in population

• Information about methods• Discrepancies across sources

Keep a set of questions in mind

Forefront of mind• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?• What should be?• Where are the assets among this population?• What’s surprising?• How do surprising findings challenge assumptions?• What further questions are we asking ourselves?Back of the mind• Causes of gap?• Consequences of gap?• Potential solutions for gap?

1. EXPLORE OVERALL TRENDSWith Rural Communities Explorer

% of Population Latino

% Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS)

0.0% - 5.6%

5.7% - 11.6%11.7% - 21.2%

21.2% - 36.1%36.2% - 71.1%

% Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS) - WV metro zoom-in

0.0% - 5.6%

5.7% - 11.6%11.7% - 21.2%

21.2% - 36.1%36.2% - 71.1%

• Malheur (31%); ~10,000

• Morrow (31%); ~3,000

• Hood River (29%); ~6,000

• Marion (24%); ~74,000

Click icon to add picture

Counties with highest Latino populations (2007-11 ACS)

2. EXPLORE SUB-TRENDS

Sub-trends

• Compare Latinos to state at large with data from US Census Bureau• Demographic variables• Social variables• Economic variables

Demographic Variables

• Younger median age• More families with kids• Larger household and family sizes• Higher fertility rate• Less residential stability• Mostly engage in regionalized migration, but also experience

farther within-state migration

Malheur continues to be a Destination County

Hood River County exodus, but stay close

Social Variables

• Higher percentage of Latinos are enrolled in K-8, and lower percentage is enrolled in college or graduate school• Latinos = 19% of K-8; Latinos = 8% of higher ed enrollees

• Lower educational attainment among adults

0 to 4

10 to 14

20 to 24

30 to 34

40 to 44

50 to 54

60 to 64

70 to 74

80 to 85

-30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000

2010 Oregon Latino Popu-lation Pyramid

FemalesMales

Socio-economic Variables

• Higher labor force participation• Higher employment rate • Top occupations

1. Service2. Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations

• Top industries1. Arts, entertainment, and recreation2. Accommodation and food service3. Manufacturing

Socio-economic Variables

• More likely to earn income from wages and salaries• Lower full-time year-round median earnings• greater disparity among men, than women

• Higher poverty rate• Higher SNAP recipient rate (23%), but equitably represented

among recipients (12%)

3. IDENTIFY RELATED TRENDS

Identify Related Trends/Missing Information

• Consult with experts (NAC)• Refer to practitioner reports• CAUSA• PEW Hispanic Center

• Review literature• Integration/Assimilation, Education, Political representation, Economics• Griffin, JD, & Newman, B. 2007. The Unequal Representation of Latinos and

Whites. The Journal of Politics, 69(4):1032-1046.• Lee, Y. & Aytac, IA. 1998. Intergenerational Financial Support among Whites,

African Americans, and Latinos. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(2):426-441• Kalogrides, D. 2009. Generational Status and Academic Achievement among

Latino High School Students: Evaluating the Segmented Assimilation Theory. Sociological Perspectives 52(2): 159-183

Important Related Trends

• Immigrant policies• Integration/Assimilation• Education• Economics• Political representation

4. EXPLORE RELATED TRENDS

• Integration/Assimilation

• Immigrant policies

• Political representation

• Economics

• Education

• Foreign-born vs. US-born

• Policy impacts

• Representation of Latinos in public office• Circulation of $s

• School enrollment

Related Trends

Foreign-born vs. US-born

• Foreign-born Latinos = 38% of OR Latinos (and declining)• Foreign-born:• 20 years older (median age) than US-born Latinos• Less educated• Earn $10,000 less• Lower unemployment• More likely to work construction and ag. industries, and service

occupations

Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)

Foreign-born vs. US-born

• In 2010, US-born Latinos come close to non-Latino Whites in the % with some college• In 2007, US-born Latinos came close to non-Latino Whites in

median household income, but from 2007 to 2010 that grew to a $12,000 difference• While median income of whites declined by $2,000 from 2007 to 2010,

the median income of US-born Latinos declined by $10,000

Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2007 & 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)

Policy impacts

• SB 1080 (required proof of legal US residence to obtain OR driver’s license)• Social burdens placed on families of undocumented• Fear of deportation• Labor shortages will be concentrated in certain industries (crop

production, ag support, textile mills, and food production)(Assessment of the socio-economic impacts of SB 1080 on Immigrant groups. 2011. ODOT. SR 500-270.)

• HB 2787 - Tuition Equity Bill (in-state tuition for children of undocumented)• Proposed SB 833 (4-yr driver’s license w/o proof of legal

residence)

Latinos in public office

% of County Officials Latino

~2% of elected offices held by Latinos (2012)

Source: Northwest News Network

Economics

• $22 billion transferred from US to Latin American countries in 2012 as private remittances (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

• $13.5 billion transferred from US to Mexico in 2012

• Economic impact on Oregon• $7 billion purchasing power in 2009 (Selig Center, 2009)

• Rate of growth among Latino entrepreneurs 4x higher than total business growth (1997 & 2007 US Census Survey of Business Owners)

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

2008

-09

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Percentage of Oregon K-12 Students Latino

Source: OR Dept. of Education, Oct. 1 membership file

School year

% o

f all

en

roll

ed

stu

den

ts

• 8% of Oregonians enrolled in higher-ed were Latino (ACS, 06-10)• 18% of Oregonians enrolled in K-12 were Latino (ACS, 06-10)

Education

5. MAKE SENSE OF THE DATA

Interpreting the data

• Interpretation requires:• Knowing the unit of analysis• Understanding how accurate the data are• Understanding what the stats you’ve created mean and imply (e.g.,

population % change ’90-’00: represents in-migration or changes to the birth and death rates?)

• Understanding the strengths and limitations of the stats

Telling the story

Answer a series of questions with the data• What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon?• What’s surprising?• Where are the gaps? • Where are the assets among this population?

• What further questions are we asking ourselves?

Discussion

My take on the statistical story about Latinos in Oregon…

• Growing population with unique attributes (age, labor, language)• Over-represented in K-12 and under-represented in higher-ed• Contribute greatly to our economy and society• Disadvantaged and vulnerable group, that may improve its

advantage in future generations• Reliant on allies and coalitions to make policy decisions that

benefit them

Gap Areas

1. Gap between Latino and non-Latino socioeconomic outcomes:• Educational attainment• Income• Poverty

2. Under-representation of Latinos in higher-education3. Under-representation of Latinos in politics, despite influential

policies being established affecting this population

Consequences

1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Demand for social services• Health and other outcomes

2. Inequitable educational representation• Low-skill and low-wage work concentration

3. Inequitable political representation• Recent policy outcomes appear favorable

Do we need more information about consequences?Which gap area deserves more attention?

Causes

1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Immigration history• Concentration in low-wage jobs

2. Inequitable educational representation• Age structure• Immigration legacy

3. Inequitable political representation• Not enough information from stats

Do we have enough information about causes?

Preliminary solutions to high priority needs (gaps)

1. Low socioeconomic outcomes• Improve wages of jobs held by Latinos• Improve the job prospects of Latinos• Others?

2. Inequitable representation in education• Wait for population to age

Solutions that I can handle…

1. Socioeconomic outcomes• Increase the amount of information I share about outcomes among

Latinos• Share information w/advocacy groups that are working on improving

the wages of jobs held by Latinos and the job prospects for Latinos

Our secondary statistical analysis prompts more questions

About Level 2’s needs• How are data being used for advocacy or for educating non-Latinos?• How can data be used to help improve the quality of life for Latinos?• How is it being used?• How should it be used?

Causes & Consequences

…Phase II is necessary…

Program Planning Cycle

1. Analyze the situation:

Needs Assessment

2. Set goal to address need

3. Design program to meet goal

4. Take stock of & gather resources

5. Plan program details

6. Implement

7. Evaluate

Maxim

um Im

pact

Zone

QUESTIONS?

50

Training Evaluation

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Lena Etuk – lena.etuk@oregonstate.edu