Currency Daily Report October 22

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Currencies Daily ReportMonday| October 22, 2012

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Content Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Research TeamFundamental TeamNalini Rao - Sr. Research [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research [email protected](022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Overview:





HighlightsUS Existing Home Sales increased by 4.75 million in last month.

Japan’s Trade Balance was deficit of 0.98 trillion Yen in September.

German PPI increased by 0.3 percent in September

European Current Account was surplus of 8.8 billion Euros in August.

UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.7 billion Pounds inSeptember

sian markets are trading on a negative note taking cues from weakxport data from the Japanese economy amid global economicowdown and territorial dispute with China.

S Existing Home Sales increased by 4.75 million in September fromrevious rise of 4.83 million a month ago

US Dollar IndexS Dollar Index swung between gains and losses and ended 0.1ercent lower. However, the index reversed earlier losses and ended1 percent higher on the back of rise in the risk aversion taking cuesom weak global market sentiments caused by uncertainty over Spainailout and weak economic data from the US economy on Friday. Thisd to increase in the demand for the low yielding currency that is USollar Index (DX).

S equities ended on negative note erasing earlier gains afterbserving unfavorable existing home sales data from the US economyn Friday. Gains were witnessed earlier after manufacturing and retail

ales data came on a favorable note. The currency touched a weeklyow of 78.97 and closed at 79.69 levels on Friday.

Dollar/INR

he Indian Rupee depreciated around 2 percent in the last week. Theurrency depreciated taking cues from dollar demand from oilmporters, defense related companies along with requirement fromoreign banks. Additionally, strength in the DX also added downsideressure on the currency.

owever, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as result of pbeat domestic market sentiments. The currency touched a low of 3.99 during the week and closed at 53.84 on Friday.

or the current month FII inflows totaled at Rs. 11,113.50 crores till9 th October 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood Rs. 175,859.30 crores till 19 th October 2012.

utlookrom the intra-day perspective, we expect rupee to depreciate takingues from weak Asian markets along with strength in the DX.dditionally dollar demand from the oil importers will supportepreciation of the currency.

Market Highlights (% change) as on October 19, 2012

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5684.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.1 11.6

SENSEX 18682.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 10.3

DJIA 13343.51 -1.5 0.1 -1.7 15.6

S&P 1433.2 -1.7 0.3 -1.9 18.5

FTSE 15862.3 -2.0 2.3 -0.8 1.2

KOSPI 1943.8 -0.8 0.5 -2.9 7.7

BOVESPA 58922.0 -1.4 #N/A -3.9 9.1

NIKKEI 9002.7 0.2 -0.1 -1.2 3.7

Nymex Crude(Nov’12) - $/bbl

90.05 -2.2 -2.0 -3.1 5.6

Comex Gold (Dec’12)- $/oz

1722.80 -1.2 -2.0 -3.0 6.9

ComexSilver(Dec’12) $/oz3207.30 -2.3 -4.6 -7.2 6.0

LME Copper (3month) -$/tonne

7992.25 -2.6 -1.6 -3.6 17.8

CRB Index(Industrial)

481.19 -1.7 2.2 -0.4 -3.0

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -Yield

100.12 0.1 0.3 0.3 6.8

Source: R

US Dollar (% change) as on October 19, 2012

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 79.69 0.3 -0.1 0.4 3.2

US $ / INR (Spot) 53.84 -0.5 -2.0 -0.9 -7.5

US $ / INR Oct’12Futures (NSE)

53.99 1.03 2.05 -0.18 9.63

US $ / INR Oct’12Futures (MCX-SX)

53.98 1.03 2.07 -0.19 9.62

Source: R

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: Te

Technical Outlook valid for October 22, 2012

Trend Support Resista

US Dollar/INR Oct’12(NSE/MCX-SX) Up 53.60/53.30 54.22/54





Euro (% change) as on October 19, 2012

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3021 -0.3 0.5 0.3 -5.5

Euro / INR (Spot) 70.11 -0.1 -2.5 -1.3 -2.2

Euro / INR Oct’12

Futures (NSE)

70.40 0.67 2.79 -0.31 3.35

Euro / INR Oct’12Futures (MCX-SX)

70.4 0.70 2.82 -0.27 3.38

Source: Reu

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Teleq

GBP (% change) as on October 19, 2012

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.6003 -0.2 -0.4 -1.4 1.4

GBP / INR (Spot) 86.16 -0.2 -1.5 0.5 -9.6

GBP / INR Oct’12Futures(NSE)

86.63 0.62 2.01 -1.10 11.43

GBP / INR Oct’12Futures(MCX-SX)

86.58 0.55 1.98 -1.13 11.37

Source: Reu

uro/INR

uro gained 0.5 percent week on week due to optimism that Europeanaders were committed to establish the Euro area bank supervisor byis year end. However they failed to Spain bailout. Additionally,eakness in the DX also supported an upside in the currency. The

urrency touched a high of 1.3139 and closed at 1.3021 on Friday.

erman Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3 percent ineptember as against a previous rise of 0.5 percent in August. Europeanurrent Account was at a surplus of 8.8 billion Euros in August fromevious surplus of 8.1 billion a month ago.

utlooktoday’s session we expect Euro to depreciate on the back of negative

obal market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Continuedoncerns of resolution of the Euro zone debt crisis are creating bearish

arket sentiments.

echnical Outlook valid for October 22, 2012

Trend Support Resistance

uro/INR Oct’12

SE/MCX-SX)Up 70.05/69.70 70.50/70.90

GBP/INR

n a weekly basis, Pound depreciated by 0.4 percent taking cues fromixed global market sentiments. However, sharp downside in the

urrency was cushioned on the back of weakness in the DX along withvorable economic data from the country. The currency touched a low1.5995 in the last week and closed at 1.6003 on Friday.

K’s Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.7 billion Pounds ineptember as against a previous rise of 10.8 billion Pounds in August.

utlookrom the intra-day perspective, we expect Pound to depreciate on theack of weak global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX.

echnical Outlook valid for October 22, 2012


BP/INR Oct ’12SE/MCX-SX)

Up 86.20/85.80 86.90/87.25




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JPY(% change) as on October 19, 2012

Last Prev day WoW MoM YJPY / $ (Spot) 79.3 0.1 1.1 1.5 3.2

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.6786 -0.4 -0.8 0.5 -4.8

JPY 100 / INR Oct’12Futures (NSE)

68.11 1.14 1.11 -0.96 6.19

JPY 100 / INR Oct’12Futures (MCX-SX)

68.10 1.14 1.10 -0.93 6.18

Source: R

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Tel

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen depreciated by 1.1 percent in the last week on the backe in risk appetite in the global markets which led to decline in demand

the low yielding currency. Additionally, unfavorable economic datam the country also exerted downside pressure on the currency. Itched a low of 79.45 during the week and closed at 79.30 on Friday.

an’s Industries Activity increased by 0.1 percent in August as against avious decline of 0.6 percent a month ago. Japan’s Trade Balance wasa deficit of 0.98 trillion Yen in September as against a previous deficit0.46 trillion Yen in August.

tlook

oday’s session, we expect Yen to appreciate on the back of rise in riskrsion in the global markets which lead to increase in demand for the

w yielding currency. However, unfavorable trade balance will cushion

rp appreciation in the currency.

chnical Outlook valid for October 22, 2012


/INR Oct ’12E/MCX-SX) Up 67.70/67.30 68.30/68.70

Economic Indicators to be released on October 22, 2012

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance Japan 5:20am -0.98T -0.74T -0.47T Medium

BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks Japan 6:00am - - - Medium

FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks US 11:00pm - - - Medium

Currency Daily Report October 22

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