Currency Daily Report September 12 2013

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

Angel Broking Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, A

Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mu

Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document

correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an off

part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission fr

Research Team

Reena Rohit

Chief Manager

Non-Agri Commodities and [email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134

Anish Vyas

Research Analyst

[email protected]

(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Overview:

CurreTh

ndheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093.

mbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

79838 / Member ID: 10500

have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company doe

er to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be repr

m “Angel Broking Ltd”. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroki

cies Daily Reporursday| September 12, 201

www.angelbroking.com

s not warrant its accuracy, completen

oduced, distributed or published, in who

ng.com



ghlights

ndian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent in yes

UK’s Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7 percent i

UK’s Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in

an markets are trading on a mixed today on th

pected rise in Japan’s machinery orders data alwait the outcome of Federal Reserve’s meeting in ne

Wholesale Inventories increased by 0.1 percent i

cline of 0.2 percent a month ago.

S Dollar Index

e Dollar Index declined by 0.4 percent in yesterda

the back of rise in risk appetite in the global marke

d to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Fu

nsions also exerted downside pressure on the curre

wever, sharp downside in the currency was cushi

certainty over the Fed’s pullback in its stimulus m

eeting in next week. The DX touched an intra-da

sed at 81.52 on Wednesday.

ollar/INR

e Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.7 percent in

ssion. The currency appreciated on the back of eas

ong with promise from Reserve Bank of India (RBI)

ore reforms to be taken. Further, selling of doll

pported an upside in the currency.

ditionally, upbeat global and domestic marke

eakness in the DX in the early part of the trade

ctor. The currency touched an intra-day high of 6

.35 on Wednesday.

r the month of September 2013, FII inflows tot

ores ($750.25 million) as on 11th

September 2013.

t capital inflows stood at Rs.65036.40 crores ($12

th September 2013.

tlook

today’s trade, appreciation in the Rupee is expec

arkets take positive cues from expectations of

nounced by RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan. Al

ying, strong domestic equities and dollar selli

ditionally support appreciation in the Rupee. Furt

at country will use its reserves to buy $4.3 billion

orld Bank subject to approval from Cabinet Ministry

CurreTh

terday’s trade.

month of July.

onth of August.

back of less than

ng with investorsxt week.

n July as against a

y’s trading session

t sentiments which

rther, ease in Syria

ncy.

ned on account of

easures during the

low of 81.46 and

yesterday’s trading

ing tension in Syria

overnor regarding

rs from exporters

t sentiments and

cted as a positive

2.99 and closed at

led at Rs.4866.60

Year to date basis,

333.50 million) till

ted to continue as

measures to be

ng with that, FII

ng by banks will

her, it is estimated

of bonds issued by

in today’s trade.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last

NIFTY 5913.2

SENSEX 19997.5

DJIA 15326.6

S&P 1689.1

FTSE 17463.5

KOSPI 1959.2

BOVESPA 58497.8

NIKKEI 14506.3

Nymex Crude

(Oct’13) - $/bbl

107.56

Comex Gold

(Oct’13) - $/oz

1364.10

Comex

Silver(Dec’13)

$/oz

23.12

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7164.50

G-Sec -10 yr

@7.8% - Yield

102.09

US Dollar (% change)

Last

Dollar Index 81.52 -

US $ / INR (Spot) 63.26

US $ / INR Sep’13

Futures (NSE)

63.63 -

US $ / INR Sep’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

63.61 -

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Technical Outlook

US Dollar/INR Sep’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)



as on September 11,

Prev.

dayWoW MoM

0.3 5.4 5.4

0.0 5.5 5.5

0.9 2.7 -0.1

0.3 -0.1 -0.1

0.8 0.0 -1.2

-1.5 1.4 1.8

0.2 13.1 13.5

0.2 -0.1 8.3

0.2 0.3 0.7

-1.6 -1.9 2.3

0.7 -0.4 0.8

-0.1 0.4 -8.7

0.0 12.5 10.4

Source:

as on September 11,

rev.

dayWoW MoM

0.4 -0.8 -0.3

0.9 5.7 -3.5

0.80 4.07 4.07

0.84 4.04 4.04

Source: T

valid for September 12,

Trend Support Res

Down 63.10/62.70 63.80



uro/INR

he Euro witnessed gains of around 0.3 percent in

ositive economic data supported gains in the curre

obal market sentiments coupled with weakness i

ositive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day high

1.3309 on Wednesday.

rench Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.2 perce

utlook

today’s session, we expect Euro to trade higher o

obal market sentiments. Further, weakness in t

ositive factor. However, sharp upside in the curren

eversal can be seen on account of forecast for

roduction data.

echnical Outlook validTrend Sup

ro/INR Sep’13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 83.90/83

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound appreciated yesterday by 0.

eakness in the DX and upbeat global market s

conomic data from the region also supported

urrency touched a high of 1.5828 and closed at 1.5

K’s Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in

ll of 36,300 a month ago. Average Earnings Index

ly from 2.2 percent in earlier month. Unemploym

7 percent in July with respect to 7.8 percent in prio

utlook

today’s trade, we expect Pound to trade on a

ues from upbeat global market sentiments. Further,

ill also act as a supportive factor for the currency.

echnical Outlook valid fo

Trend Suppo

BP/INR Sep ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 99.80/99.

CurreTh

Euro (% change)

Last Prev

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3309

Euro / INR (Spot) 84.19

Euro / INR Sep

’13 Futures (NSE)

84.9

Euro / INR

Sep’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

84.9

Technical Chart – Euro

GBP (% change)

Last Prev.

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5815 0

GBP / INR

(Spot)

99.961 -0

GBP / INR

Sep’13 Futures

(NSE)

100.35 -0

GBP / INR Sep

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

100.32 -0

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

esterday’s trade as

cy. Further, upbeat

the DX acted as a

f 1.3324 and closed

nt in Q2 of 2013.

the back of upbeat

e DX will act as a

cy will be capped or

ecline in industrial

or September 12, 2013ort Resistance

.50 84.50/84.80

.5 percent due to

entiments. Positive

the currency. The

815 on Wednesday.

August as against a

as at 1.1 percent in

nt Rate dropped to

r month.

ositive note taking

weakness in the DX

r September 12, 2013

rt Resistance

0 100.50/100.80



as on September 11, 2013

. day WoW MoM

0.3 0.8 0.1

0.6 4.9 -3.6

0.71 3.88 3.88

0.73 3.88 3.88

Source: Re

Source: Tele


ay WoW MoM

.52 1.2 2.3

.47 -4.59 5.94

.26 5.79 5.79

.32 5.75 5.75

Source: Re

Source: Tele



Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterd

onomic data from the region. However, sharp ups

s capped on account of rise in risk appetite in

ntiments which led to fall in demand for the low yi

n touched an intraday high of 99.77 and closed

ding session.

tlook

th sentiments remaining upbeat in the global

ntiments towards Japan becoming bullish due to

n is expected.

chnical Outlook valid

Trend Suppo

/INR Sep ’13

E/MCX-SX) Down 63.10/62.

Economic Indicators to be released on

ndicator Country

Core Machinery Orders m/m Japan

ECB Monthly Bulletin Euro

ndustrial Production m/m Euro

nflation Report Hearings UK

ECB President Draghi Speaks Euro

Unemployment Claims US

mport Prices m/m US

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks US

Federal Budget Balance US

CurreTh

JPY (% change)

Last P

JPY / $ (Spot) 99.85

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.632

9

JPY 100 / INR Sep’13

Futures (NSE)

63.37

JPY 100 / INR Sep’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

63.38

Technical Chart – JPY

ay due to favorable

ide in the currency

the global market

lding currency. The

t 99.85 in the last

markets and with

lympics, fall in the

or September 12, 2013

rt Resistance

0 63.60/63.90

September 12, 2013

Time (IST) Actual Forecast P

5:20am 0.0% 2.5%

1:30pm - -

2:30pm - -0.1%

2:30pm - -

5:10pm - -

6:00pm - 332K

6:00pm - 0.6%

6:30pm - -

11:30pm - -155.3B


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rev day WoW MoM

-0.5 0.1 3.1

-0.57 -5.89 0.81 -1

-0.80 -0.21 -0.21 -2

-0.81 -0.17 -0.17 -2

Source:

Source: Te

evious Impact

-2.7% Medium

- Medium

0.7% Medium

- High

- High

323K High

0.2% Medium

- Medium

-97.6B Medium

Currency Daily Report September 12 2013

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