Currency Daily Report, June 13 2013

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Currencies Daily RepoThursday| June 13, 201

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Non-Agri Commodities and [email protected]

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Anish Vyas

Research Analyst

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Overview:

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ghlights

World Bank cuts global growth forecast to 2.2 percent for 2013.

ndia’s Industrial production declined to 2 percent in April.

UK’s Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in the last month.

Fitch credit ratings shift India to stable growth outlook from negative.

European Industrial Production gained by 0.4 percent in April.

ian markets are trading lower today on the back of cut in global

owth forecast by the World Bank. It is expected that global economy

ll grow by 2.2 percent in current year from previous estimates of 2.4

rcent in January and is below the growth of 2.3 percent in 2012.

dia’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 9.31 percent in May as against

rise of 9.39 percent in April. Industrial production declined to 2

rcent in April from rise of 2.5 percent a month ago. Manufacturing

tput also dropped and was at 2.8 percent in April as compared to

crease of 3.2 percent in prior month.

S Dollar Indexe US Dollar Index (DX) declined 0.2 percent in the yesterday’s trading

ssion on the back of expectations that Federal Reserve will reduce its

nd buying program.

owever, sharp downside in currency was cushioned as a result of weak

obal markets which lead to increase in demand for low-yielding

rrency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 80.75 and closed at 80.95

Wednesday.

ollar/INR

e Indian Rupee appreciated 0.9 percent in yesterday’s trading session.e currency appreciated on account of Fitch credit rating agency

anged the economy growth outlook to stable from negative. Further,

ling of dollars from exporters also supported an upside in the

rrency.

owever, sharp upside in the Rupee was capped as a result of weak

obal and domestic markets. Additionally, unfavorable industrial

oduction data from the country prevented further positive movement

the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day high of 57.72 and

osed at 57.82 against dollar on Wednesday.

r the month of June 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.138.90 crores29.36 million) as on 12th June 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

lows stood at Rs.83,344.0 crores ($15,382.30 million) till 12th June

13.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate

account of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments.

rther, cut in the growth forecast for India by World Bank to 5.7

rcent will add downside pressure on currency. However, sharp

wnside in currency will be cushioned on the back of weakness in DX

ong with stable economic growth for India by Fitch credit ratings.

Market Highlights (% change) as on June 12, 2013

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5760.2 -0.5 -2.8 -3.7

SENSEX 19041.1 -0.5 -2.7 -3.3

DJIA 14995.23 -0.8 0.2 -1.8

S&P 1612.5 -0.8 0.2 -1.3

FTSE 16024.0 -1.6 -5.6 -9.0

KOSPI 1959.2 -1.5 0.0 -0.5

BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 10.8 6.8

NIKKEI 13289.3 -0.2 -0.1 -13.6

Nymex Crude

(July’13) - $/bbl

95.88 0.5 2.3 1.7

Comex Gold (Aug’13)

- $/oz

1391.80 1.1 -1.7 0.3

Comex

Silver(July’13) $/oz

21.80 0.7 -3.0 -3.7

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7133.50 0.9 -4.1 -9.1

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

102.09 0.0 2.4 -1.5

Source:

US Dollar (% change) as on June 12

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 80.95 -0.2 -2.0 -3.6

US $ / INR (Spot) 57.82 0.9 -1.7 -5.5

US $ / INR June’13

Futures (NSE)

57.89 -1.16 1.61 5.29

US $ / INR June’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

57.95 -1.04 1.72 5.43

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for June 13, 2013

Trend Support Resi

US Dollar/INR June’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Up 57.80/57.70 58.20





Euro (% change) as on June 12, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3336 0.2 1.9 2.8

Euro / INR (Spot) 77.13 0.3 -3.6 -8.4

Euro / INR June ’13

Futures (NSE)

76.8 -1.16 3.31 7.62

Euro / INR June’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

76.9 -1.14 3.36 7.70

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on June 12, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5677 0.20 1.8 2.5

GBP / INR (Spot) 90.721 -0.60 3.82 7.71

GBP / INR

June’13 Futures

(NSE)

90.51 -0.54 3.60 7.07

GBP / INR June

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

90.61 -0.42 3.70 7.19

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro appreciated 0.2 percent in the yesterday’s trade on the back of

eakness in the DX. Further, favorable industrial production data from

he region also supported an upside in the currency. The Euro touched

n intra-day high of 1.3359 and closed at 1.3336 against the dollar on

Wednesday. However, sharp upside in Euro was capped on account of

eak global markets.

rench Final Non-Farm Payrolls declined by 0.1 percent in Q1 of 2013.

erman Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.4

ercent in May. French CPI rose by 0.1 percent in May as against a

ecline of 0.1 percent in April. European Industrial Production gained by

4 percent in April from earlier rise of 0.9 percent a month ago.

utlook

today’s session, we expect the Euro to weaken on the back of rise in

sk aversion in global markets. Additionally, forecast by the World Bank

hat Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Euro Zone region willontract by 0.6 percent and growth in the region will also decline by 0.1

ercent in 2013. This will exert downside pressure on the currency.

owever, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the Euro.

echnical Outlook valid for June 13, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR June’13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 76.70/76.50 77.05/77.20

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound appreciated 0.2 percent in yesterday’s trade on the

ack of weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable Claimant Count

hange data from the country acted as a positive factor for the currency.

he Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5699 and closed at

5677 against dollar on Wednesday. Sharp upside in currency was

revented on account of weak global markets.

K’s Claimant Count Change declined by 8,600 in May as against a

revious fall of 11,800 in April. Average Earnings Index increased by 1.3

ercent in April from earlier increase of 0.6 percent a month ago.

nemployment Rate remained unchanged at 7.8 percent in the month

f April.

utlook

We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of

eak global markets. Further, cut in global growth forecast by World

ank will add downside pressure on the currency. However, weakness in

he DX will restrict sharp fall in the Sterling Pound.

echnical Outlook valid for June 13, 2013


BP/INR June ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Down 90.40/90.20 90.70/91.0




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JPY (% change) as on June 12, 2013

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 96 0.0 -3.1 -5.7

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.6056 -0.15 5.63 12.25 -1

JPY 100 / INR June’13

Futures (NSE)

59.93 -0.63 4.75 10.73 -1

JPY 100 / INR June’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

59.93 -0.61 4.75 10.74 -1

Source:

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated marginally 0.01 percent in the yesterday’s

ding session on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets

ich led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. The Yen

uched an intra-day high of 95.13 and closed at 96.0 against dollar on

ednesday.

tlook

r intra-day, we expect the Japanese Yen to appreciate, taking cues from

e in risk aversion in the global markets, which will lead to increase in

mand for the low-yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for June 13, 2013


/INR June ’13

E/MCX-SX)Up 59.70/59.54 60.10/60.25

Economic Indicators to be released on June 13, 2013

ndicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

ECB Monthly Bulletin Euro 1:30pm - - - Medium

MPC Member Tucker Speaks UK 5:45pm - - - Medium

Core Retail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - 0.3% -0.2% High

Retail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - 0.4% 0.1% High

Unemployment Claims US 6:00pm - 354K 346K High

mport Prices m/m US 6:00pm - 0.1% -0.5% Medium

Business Inventories m/m US 7:30pm - 0.3% 0.0% Medium

Currency Daily Report, June 13 2013

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