Currency Daily Report, April 12

7/28/2019 Currency Daily Report, April 12

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Currencies Daily RepoFriday| April 12, 201

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Content

Overview

US Dollar

Euro

GBP

JPY

Economic Indicators

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Research Team

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst

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(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6130

Saif Mukadam – Research Analyst

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Anish Vyas - Research Analyst

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Overview:

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ghlights

US Unemployment Claims declined to 346,000 for the w/e 5th April.

German Final CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of March.

US Import Prices declined by 0.5 percent in the last month.

French CPI increased by 0.8 percent in a month earlier.

ian Markets are trading on a mixed note on the back of favorable USonomic data in yesterday’s trade but strength in the Japanese Yen

ded downside pressure on the markets.

Unemployment Claims declined by 42,000 to 346,000 for the week

ding 5th

April as against a rise of 388,000 in prior week. Import Prices

clined by 0.5 percent in March from earlier rise of 0.6 percent in

bruary.

S Dollar Index

e US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.4 percent in the yesterday’s

ading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market

ntiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding currency.

ditionally, favorable US jobless claims data also acted as a negative

ctor for the currency.

rther, US equities traded on a positive note which also exerted

wnside pressure on the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of

.14 and closed at 82.33 on Thursday.

ollar/INR

e Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.3 percent on Wednesday. Therrency appreciated on account of selling dollars from exporters and

nks. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments also supported an

side in the currency.

owever, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of

ength in the DX coupled with outflow of foreign funds. The currency

uched an intra-day high of 54.39 and closed at 54.41 against dollar on

ednesday.

r the month of April 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.206.50 crores

37.29 million) as on 10th

April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital

lows stood at Rs.55,415.90 crores ($10,272.80 million) till 10 th April

13.

utlook

om the intra-day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate

the back of mixed global market sentiments coupled with

pectations of decline in country’s industrial production and

anufacturing output data. Further, outflow of foreign funds will also

ert downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in

e currency will be cushioned on account of selling of dollar from

porters and banks along with weakness in the DX.

Market Highlights (% change) as on April 11, 2013

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

NIFTY 5594.0 0.6 0.3 -5.3

SENSEX 18542.2 0.7 0.2 -5.3

DJIA 14865.14 0.4 1.8 2.2

S&P 1593.4 0.4 2.1 2.4

FTSE 16020.9 0.6 5.7 -0.7

KOSPI 1949.8 0.7 -0.5 -1.8

BOVESPA 58497.8 0.2 7.0 2.9

NIKKEI 13549.2 2.0 -0.1 8.7

Nymex Crude

(Apr13) - $/bbl

93.51 -1.2 0.3 0.5

Comex Gold (Apr’13)

- $/oz

1564.30 0.4 -0.7 -1.8

Comex

Silver(Mar’13) $/oz

2768.50 0.2 3.5 -3.8

LME Copper (3

month) -$/tonne

7594.25 0.2 1.9 -3.2

CRB Index

(Industrial)

- - - -

G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% -

Yield

102.09 0.0 0.9 0.3

Source:

US Dollar (% change) as on April 11

LastPrev.

dayWoW MoM

Dollar Index 82.33 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

US $ / INR (Spot) 54.41 0.1 0.2 -0.1

US $ / INR April’13

Futures (NSE)

54.66 -0.19 -0.16 0.22

US $ / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

54.65 -0.20 -0.18 0.19

Technical Chart – USD/INR

Source: T

Technical Outlook valid for April 12, 2013

Trend Support Resi

US Dollar/INR April’13

(NSE/MCX-SX)Sideways 54.45/54.30 54.75





Euro (% change) as on April 11, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

Euro /$ (Spot) 1.3102 0.3 1.3 0.8

Euro / INR (Spot) 71.09 0.0 -1.6 -0.8

Euro / INR April ’13

Futures (NSE)

71.6 0.18 1.94 -0.02

Euro / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

71.6 0.20 1.96 0.01

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Euro

Source: Tele

GBP (% change) as on April 11, 2013

Last Prev. day WoW MoM

$ / GBP (Spot) 1.5382 0.35 1.0 2.0

GBP / INR (Spot) 83.555 -0.081 1.40 3.03

GBP / INR

April’13 Futures

(NSE)

83.63 -0.12 1.11 1.95

GBP / INR April

’13 Futures

(MCX-SX)

83.66 -0.10 1.14 1.97

Source: Re

Technical Chart – Sterling Pound

Source: Tele

uro/INR

he Euro appreciated by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trade on the back of

ptimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX.

urther, decline in borrowing cost for Italy also supported prices.

erman Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.5ercent in the month of March. French CPI increased by 0.8 percent in

arch from earlier rise of 0.3 percent in February. The Euro touched an

tra-day high of 1.3138 and closed at 1.3102 against dollar on Thursday.

utlook

today’s session, we expect Euro to appreciate on the back of

eakness in DX coupled with expectation of positive economic data

om Europe. However, worries over economic growth as the IMF

orecasted that euro zone’s economy may contract by 0.2 percent in

013 may cap sharp gains in the currency. Investors will keep an eye onCOFIN meeting and Euro group meetings.

echnical Outlook valid for April 12, 2013

Trend Support Resistance

ro/INR April’13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 71.35/71.10 71.70/71.90

BP/INR

he Sterling Pound appreciated by 0.35 percent in yesterday’s trade on

he back of optimistic global market sentiments. Further weakness in the

X also supported an upside in the currency.

he Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5411 and closed at

5382 against dollar on Thursday.

utlook

We expect Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of

eakness in DX coupled with mixed global market sentiments.

echnical Outlook valid for April 12, 2013


BP/INR April ’13

SE/MCX-SX)Sideways 83.50/83.30 83.90/84.20




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JPY (% change) as on April 11, 2013

Last Prev day WoW MoM

JPY / $ (Spot) 99.67 -0.1 3.5 3.7

JPY / INR (Spot) 0.547 -0.80 -6.67 -3.34 -1

JPY 100 / INR April’13

Futures (NSE)

54.92 -0.90 -6.24 -3.75 -1

JPY 100 / INR April’13

Futures (MCX-SX)

54.94 -0.85 -6.24 -3.73 -1

Source:

Technical Chart – JPY

Source: Te

Y/INR

e Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.1 percent in the yesterday’s trading

ssion on the back of favorable economic data from the country.

wever, sharp upside in the currency was prevented as a result of rise in

k appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in

mand for the low yielding currency.

pan’s Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 1.1 percent in February as

ainst a decline of 1.5 percent a month ago. The Yen touched an intra-

y high of 99.10 and closed at 99.67 against dollar on Thursday.

tlook

r the intra-day, we expect yen to depreciate taking cues from rise in risk

petite in the global market sentiments which will lead to decline in

mand for the low yielding currency.

chnical Outlook valid for April 12, 2013


/INR April ’13

E/MCX-SX)Down 54.50/54.20 55.30/55.60

onomic Indicators to be released on April 12, 2013

icator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

tiary Industry Activity m/m Japan 5:20am 1.1% 0.8% -1.1% Medium

ustrial Production m/m Europe 2:30pm - 0.3% -0.4% Medium

OFIN Meetings Europe Day 1 - - - Medium

ro group Meetings Europe All Day - - - Medium

re Retail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - -0.1% 1.0% High

m/m US 6:00pm - -0.2% 0.7% High

tail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - 0.0% 1.1% High

re PPI m/m US 6:00pm - 0.2% 0.2% Medium

MC Member Rosengren Speaks US 6:15pm - - - Medium

lim UoM Consumer Sentiment US 7:25pm - 79.1 78.6 High

siness Inventories m/m US 7:30pm - 0.4% 1.0% Medium

d Chairman Bernanke Speaks US 10:00pm - - - High

Currency Daily Report, April 12

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