Commodities Weekly Tracker -15th October 2012

7/31/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker -15th October 2012

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Commodities & Currencies

Weekly Tracker


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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

Returns

Non Agri Commodities Currencies

Agri Commodities

Non-Agri Commodities

Gold

Silver

Copper Crude Oil

Currencies DX, Euro, INR

Agri Commodities

Chana

Black Pepper Turmeric

Jeera

Soybean

Refine Soy Oil & CPO

Sugar

Kapas

Monday | October 15, 2012


3/20

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | October 15, 2012

2.0

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.5

(0.3) (0.4)

(0.6)(1.0)

(0.5)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Currencies Weekly Performance


4/20


5.9

2.2

(1.5) (1.7)

(3.2)

(5.7) (6.1) (6.3) (6.9)(7.0)(6.0)(5.0)(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0

Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance


5/20

*Weekly Performance for November contract; Kapas - April 2013 contract, Mentha oil and CPO - Oct 2012



6/20


GoldWeekly Price Performance

On weekly basis, Spot gold prices swung between gains and losses and

settled lower by 1.5 percent.

The yellow metal touched a weekly low of $1,751.84/oz and closed at$1,753.75/oz on Friday. On the MCX, Gold October contract ended 0.1

percent lower taking cues from weakness in the spot prices.

However, depreciation in the Indian rupee cushioned sharp fall in the MCX

gold prices in the last week.

ETF Performance

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-

traded fund, increased 0.53 percent and stood at 1340.52 tonnes till

October 12 2012 as against 1333.44 tonnes till October 05 2012.

Factors that influenced gold prices

Strength in the DX. Rise in risk aversion in the global markets.

Weak global market sentiments resulting worries of global slowdown as IMF

cuts the global growth forecast for 2012. Depreciation in the Indian rupee

cushioned sharp fall in the MCX Gold prices.

Outlook

In the coming week, we expect gold prices to witness further selling on the

back of uncertainty over the Spain bailout and better US data mightdampen gold appeal as basic indicator for stimulus measures is weak labor

market which currently is showing signs of improvement.

Strength in DX will also exert downside pressure. However, European

leaders meeting on Oct-18 and 19 to decide on further action may also

determine the price trend.

Weekly Technical Levels

Spot Gold : Support 1735/1710 Resistance 1770/1785. (CMP: 1745.50)

Sell MCX GOLD Dec between 31500-31550, SL - 31800, Target - 31100 /

31000 (CMP : 31127)

1,530

1,560

1,590

1,620

1,650

1,680

1,710

1,740

1,770

1,800

27,200

27,700

28,200

28,700

29,200

29,700

30,200

30,700

31,200

31,700

32,200

32,700

MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

78.0

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

1,530

1,550

1,570

1,590

1,6101,630

1,650

1,6701,690

1,710

1,730

1,750

1,770

1,790

Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Gold -$/oz US Dollar Index


7/20


SilverWeekly Price Performance

Spot silver prices ended lower by 3.2 percent week on week.

The white metal touched a weekly low of $33.02/oz and closed at $33.20/ozon Friday.

In the Indian markets, MCX silver prices traced bearishness in the spot prices

fell 0.6 percent week on week. However, depreciation in the Indian rupee

cushioned sharp fall in the silver prices on MCX.

Factors that influenced silver prices

Weakness in the gold and base metals prices.

Strength in the DX.

Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments.ETF performance

On a weekly basis, holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, declined 0.25 percent

on October 12th 2012 at 9894.58 tonnes as compared to 9920 tonnes in the

week ended 05th October 2012.

Outlook

We expect Silver prices to remain in the negative territory due to weak

global market sentiments and continued debt concerns of Euro zone along

with stronger DX. However, prices may also take cues from the European leaders meeting on

Oct-18 and 19 to decide on further action to resolve the debt crisis.

In the domestic markets depreciation in the Indian Rupee might cushion

sharp fall in the MCX Silver prices.


Sell MCX Silver December between 61800-61900, SL-62500, Target -60750 /

60550 (CMP: 60735)

Spot Silver : Support 32.75/32.50 Resistance 34.40/34.70 (CMP: 33.21)

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

3637

50,500

52,000

53,500

55,000

56,500

58,000

59,500

61,000

62,500

64,000

65,500

MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

MCX-Near Month Si lver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz

78.0

79.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

83.0

84.0

85.0

26.0

27.5

29.0

30.5

32.0

33.5

35.0

36.5

Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index


8/20


CopperWeekly Price Performance

Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined by 1.6 percent week on

week and closed at $8,118.30/tonne on Friday.Copper Inventories

The red metals inventories on the LME warehouses declined around 3

percent to 215,900 tonnes on 12th October 2012 from the previous level of

222,675 tonnes on 5th October 2012 .

Copper inventories at warehouse monitored by the Shanghai Futures

Exchange increased by 11.7 percent to 181,514 tonnes in the week ended

12th October.

Factors that influenced copper prices

Rise in the Shanghai inventories along with slowdown in China.

Weak global market sentiments resulting worries of global slowdown as IMF

cuts the global growth forecast for 2012

Strength in the DX also added downside pressure in the red metal.

Outlook

Global slowdown worries along with positive exports data from the Chinese

economy might restrict stimulus measures from the government .

Uncertainty over Spain bailout along with strength in the DX.

Any positive outcome from the European leaders meeting to be held on Oct-

18-19 in Brussels to decide on further action to contain the Euro zone debt

might also support an upside in the copper prices.

Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will act as a supportive factor for the copper

prices on MCX.


Sell MCX COPPER Nov between 440-442, SL - 448, Target 430 / 429 (CMP:

433.40)

LME Copper: Support $8000/$7840 Resistance $8215/8365. (CMP: 8108)

385390395400405410415420425430435440445450455460

7,100

7,300

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

8,500

8,700

8,900

LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

7,200

7,400

7,600

7,800

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

330,000

350,000

370,000

LME Copper Price Movement Vs Inventory

Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)


9/20


Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices gained by 2.2 percent.

On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 4.1 percent on account ofdepreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.4,851/bbl on Friday after

touching a high of Rs.4967/bbl during the last week.

US Energy Department Facts and Figures

As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report released last week, US crude oil

inventories increased more than expected by 1.7 million barrels to 366.40

million barrels for the week ending on 5th October 2012.

Gasoline stocks declined by 534,000 barrels to 195.40 million barrels and

whereas distillate stockpiles drop by 3.20 million barrels to 120.90 million

barrels for the last week.Factors that influenced crude oil prices

Unrest in the Middle East the region increasing the supply concerns along with

favorable economic data from the US. Additionally, expectations of European

Union to further tighten sanctions on Iran if talks stall about the countrys

nuclear program also supported an upside in the prices.

However, sharp positive movement in the prices was capped as a result of more

than expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the

DX.

Outlook

Crude oil prices in the coming week are expected to trade on a bearish note on

anticipating demand from the key consuming nations to reduce due to global

slowdown along with strength in the DX. However, any renewed tensions in the

Middle East might support an upside in the crude oil prices.


Sell MCX CRUDE Oct between 5030-5050, SL - 5210, Target - 4780 / 4800.

(CMP: 4855)

Nymex Crude Oil: Support: $88.50/86.70 Resistance $94.50/97.0. (CMP: 91.51)

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

4,4004,500

4,600

4,700

4,800

4,9005,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,4005,500

5,600

Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)


10/20


11/20


EuroWeekly Price Performance

The Euro depreciated 0.6 percent week on week .

The currency touched a low of 1.2824 and closed at 1.295 on Friday.

Factors that influenced movement in the Euro

Rise in the risk aversion amongst market participants due to weak global market

sentiments along with continued debt concerns of the region.

Additionally strength in the DX also acted as a bearish factor for the currency.

News

German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 1.3 percent in September from

previous rise of 1.1 percent in August. French Industrial Production increased by 1.5

percent in August as against a rise of 0.6 percent a month ago. Italian IndustrialProduction increased by 1.7 percent in August as compared to decline of 0.1 percent in

prior month.

French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 97.7 billion Euros in August as against a

previous deficit of 85.5 billion Euros a month ago. French Trade Balance was at a deficit

of 5.3 billion Euros in August from earlier deficit of 4.1 billion Euros in earlier month.

German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 18.3 billion Euros in August as against a

previous surplus of 16.3 billion Euros a month ago. European Sentix Investor

Confidence was at -22.2-mark in October from earlier decline of 23.2-level in

September. German Industrial Production declined by 0.5 percent in August ascompared to rise of 1.2 percent in prior month.

Outlook

We expect the Euro to depreciate due to uncertainty over the Spain bailout and the

currency would also take cues from any decision taken in the meeting to be held during

the week(Oct- 18-19 in Brussels) Positive outcome from the meeting will however cap

sharp depreciation in the currency or even witness a reversal in the trend .


EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2825/1.2731 Resistance 1.307/1.317 (CMP:1.257)

1.15

1.18

1.21

1.24

1.27

1.30

1.33

1.36

1.39

Euro/$ - Spot

63.5

64.5

65.5

66.5

67.5

68.5

69.5

70.5

71.5

72.5

EURO/INR -Sp ot


12/20

Chana


Weekly Price Performance

Emergence of fresh demand amid festive season ahead led to a sharp recovery

in the chana prices during the last week. NCDEX November contract as well asspot settled % and % higher w-o-w.

Thin supplies of Chickpeas amid festive season demand

Series of festivals ahead and comparatively lower supplies to meet the demand

on the back of lower output is likely to keep sentiments upbeat for Chana.

CCEA approved supply of imported pulses at subsidized rates under PDS

The CCEA gave its approval for introducing subsidized distribution of 4 lakh tn

imported pulses through PDS with a subsidy of Rs.20/kg to below poverty. The

discontinued scheme in June will be re-launched for 6 months till Mar 31,2013.

Government to hike MSP of Rabi Pulses for 2012-13

CACP has recommended a hike in MSP of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal

and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 rabi season.

Kharif Pulses Output seen down at 14.36 percent- Farm minister

According to the Farm minister, Kharif pulses output is seen at 5.26 mn tn ,

down by 14.3% compared to last years 6.16 mn tn mainly on account of lower

acreage and poor rains during the first two months of the monsoon season.

Australian Chana Production Up by 70.5%: ABARES

In Australia, chana production is likely to rise by 70.5% to 8.27 lakh tn from 4.85

lakh tn in previous years. A large chunk of chickpeas imports by India comes

from Australia. Thus, higher imports may ease supplies in the domestic markets.

Outlook

Strong demand ahead of festive season may keep chana prices firm in the

coming weeks. However, buying at support levels is suggested as demand

becomes subdued at higher levels and thus correction cannot be ruled out.

Weekly Strategy

Buy NCDEX Chana Nov between 4475-4525, SL -4300, Target - 4850 / 4900


13/20

Black Pepper

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters



Pepper traded on a positive note last week due to festive season demand.

However, sharp gains were capped due to improvement in arrivals as farmerswere selling some stocks at higher levels. Export demand for Indian pepper is

weak due to a huge parity. An appreciation in the Rupee has also affected the

parity. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.48% and 1.52% higher w-o-w.

Indian Pepper is being offered at $8,500/tn (c&f) while Indonesia is offering its

Asta at $6,750/tn and Vietnam is offering 500GL at $6,900/tn.

Average daily arrivals stood at 58 tn while offtakes stood at 62 tn last week .

A sharp fall in Pepper Exports

According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper fell sharply from 2,266

tonnes in April 2011 to 1,200 tonnes in April 2012, by about 47%. In value terms itfell by only 18%, as the export prices were comparatively much higher.

Global updates

Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of Pepper declined 14.8% in the first

2 months of the year to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period last

year. Consumption in the US is expected to be lower by 22-24% this year.

According to Vietnam General Statistics Office, exports of Black Pepper from

Vietnam during January till September 2012 is reported at 80,433 mt. Global

pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7% to 3.20 lk tn as compared

to 2.98 lk tn in 2011 with a rise of 24% in Indonesia and 10% in Vietnam.

Outlook

Pepper is expected to trade on a positive note this week. Prices may find support

due to festive demand ahead of Diwali as well as winter buying. Also buying

demand may emerge from the crushing/grinding industry. However, expectations

of better output coupled with low export demand for Indian pepper may cap

sharp gains.

Weekly Strategy

Buy NCDEX Nov Pepper between 43000-43100, SL- 41900, Target- 44750.

35000

37000

39000

41000

43000

45000

47000

Price Trend: Pepper Spot vis-a-vis Futures

Pe ppe r Sp ot (Rs ./q tl) Pe ppe r Future s ( Rs ./qtl)

19180

23090

2893127864

35195

32026

40106

38219

42285

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000Prices (Rs/qtl)

Monthly Average Spot Prices of NCDEX Black Pepper


14/20

Turmeric

Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Turmeric November Futures continued to trade downwards for the fourth

consecutive week due to good carryover stocks coupled with weak demand. Also,participants in the spot market were not buying actively. Improving monsoon in

the major turmeric growing regions have also pressurised the prices as this has

eased the concerns over this years output. However, arrivals were low as farmers

were unwilling to sell their stocks at lower prices, which supported prices. Sowing

is completed and expected to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.

According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the November

Futures settled 2.07% and 2.22% lower respectively w-o-w.

Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

Production of Turmeric is expected to fall this year as the farmers have sown

about 30% less turmeric as the prices corrected last year. Production of turmeric

in Erode in 2011-12 is expected to rise 57% to 55 lakh bags as compared to 35

lakh bags in 2010-11.

Outlook

Turmeric prices may trade in a rangebound manner this week. Demand is

expected to emerge ahead of the festive season in the coming days. Lower

arrivals in the domestic markets may also support prices at lower levels. Traders

expect export demand to emerge in the coming days. However, good carryover

stocks with the stockists may pressurize prices.

Weekly Strategy NCDEX Nov Turmeric Trend Sideways. S2- 5300, S1- 5380, R1- 5570, R2- 5700.


3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

Price Trend: Turmeric Spot vis-a-vis Futures

Turmeric Spot Rs./qtl Turmeric Futures

3400

3900

4400

4900

5400

5900

6400

0

2000

4000

6000

800010000

12000

14000

16000

18000

1-Jun-12

8-Jun-12

15-Jun-12

22-Jun-12

29-Jun-12

6-Jul-12

13-Jul-12

20-Jul-12

27-Jul-12

3-Aug-12

10-Aug-12

17-Aug-12

24-Aug-12

31-Aug-12

7-Sep-12

14-Sep-12

21-Sep-12

28-Sep-12

5-Oct-12

12-Oct-12

PriceArrivals

Turmeric - Prices vis-a-vis Arrivals

Arrivals (in bags of 75 kg each) NCDEX Spot Price (Rs/qtl)


15/20

Jeera

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

Commodities Weekly Tracker


Jeera Futures traded on a bullish note last week as exports were active in the spot

markets. Also, festive buying supported the prices. According to market sources,

about 75% of the years export targets have already been achieved. However,

good rains in Gujarat capped sharp gains in the spot market.

The Spot settled 0.03% lower while the Futures settled 2.83% higher w-o-w.

Higher domestic production to offset exports

Output of Jeera in India this season (2012) is estimated around 40 lakh bags, a rise

of 37.9% as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2011 (55kgs each). However, the impact

of higher supplies on the prices may be offset by expected increase in exports this

season and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.

Global supply concerns to boost Jeera exports Exports of Jeera rose from 2,369 tn in April 2011 to 2,500 tn in April 2012. Target

for exports in 2012 have been set at 45,000 tn against 35,000 tn in 2011.

Due to fall in the production in Syria and Turkey, and the ongoing tensions in

Syria, exporters have been diverted to India. Syria and Turkey have stopped

shipments. Export enquiries may re-emerge at lower levels.

International Scenario

According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 17,000 tons while

production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and

around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

The ongoing civil war in Syria has disrupted exports from Syria.

Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,750/tn (c&f).

Outlook

Jeera is expected to trade on a positive note this week due to festive demand.

Active buying by exporters is also expected to boost the prices. However, good

carryover stocks and rains in Gujarat may restrict sharp gains.

Weekly Levels Buy NCDEX Nov Jeera between 14800-14900, SL-14050, Target 15990/16250.


11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

Price Trend: Jeera Spot vis-a-vis Futures

Jeera Spot (Rs/qtl) Jeera Futures (Rs./qtl)

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

Production,inLakh

Tonnes

Production of Jeera in India

Source: Reuters & Angel Research.


16/20

Soybean


Weekly price performance

NCDX Soybean November contract that declined sharply amid harvesting

pressure, have shown some signs of recovery and thus settled marginally lower

towards the end. CBOT soybean also settled 3.1% lower w-o-w.

Arrivals gathered pace-Harvesting to keep prices under pressure

New soybean crop in MP are reported at 350000 bags on Friday last week.

Soybean follows seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline with start to

harvesting in Sept & bottom out in mid October when harvesting reaches peak.

Soybean output for 2012-13 season up by 2.7% - Farm minister

A 3.7% increase in soybean acreage and good rains in MP, major soybean

producing state may lead to higher output next season. Farm minister has pegged

output at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13 season.

USDA October report revises upward soybean output estimates

According to the USDA monthly report, Global soybean production is projected at

264.3 million tons, up 6.2 million mostly due to an increase for the United States.

Ending stocks are seen down from 169 million bushels in 2011-12 to 115 million

bushels in 2012-13 season.

Brazilian Soy crop at record- CONAB

According to Conab Soybean output should be between 80 million and 82.8

million tonnes as yields return to normal after dry weather damaged Brazil's2011/12 crop. Productivity should increase 14.3 percent to 3.03 tonnes per

hectare compared to 2.651 tonnes per hectare last season.

Outlook

Going by the seasonality pattern, Soybean prices bottom during mid October

when harvesting reaches its peak and starts rising gradually with declining arrival

pressure. Also recovery in the international markets may support the upside.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX Soybean Nov between 2980-3020, SL -2850, Target - 3220 / 3250


17/20

Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil


Weekly price performance

BMD CPO and MCX CPO settled higher by 7.1% and 0.7 w-o-w as Malaysian

government has approved cut in export tax, a move to boost export andreduce ballooning stocks. While, NCDEX Soy oil settled 4% higher taking cues

from Palm oil and domestic soybean. Festive season demand also supported

the bullish market sentiments.

Global Scenario

Malaysia, the world's No.2 producer of palm oil, will scrap a tax free export

quota for the crude grade from 2013 in a bid to reduce feedstock prices for

refiners who have lost market share to top supplier Indonesia.

As per MPOBs latest report, Malaysia's September palm oil stocks rose 17

percent to record high 2.48 million tons compared to previous month.Moreover, crude palm oil output in September rose 20 percent from August

to 2 million tons.

Exports rose at the slower pace of 4.5 percent, to 1.50 million tonnes.

Domestic Scenario

India imported 111,163 tonnes of refined palm oil in September, an increase

of 39.9 percent from August (Source: Reuters).

Total vegetable oil imports in September were 993,912 tonnes, up from

897,018 tonnes in the previous month. India, the world's No. 1 importer of

vegetable oils, buys mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also

imports a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

India's 2012/13 edible oil imports seen at record 10.31 mln tonnes, up 5.4 pct

on year an industry expert said in glob oil conference. India's 2012/13 palm

oil imports seen at 8.1 mln tn vs. 7.5 mln tn yr earlier .

Strategy: Refine Soy Oil

Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil Nov between 625-630, SL -600, Target - 665 / 670

Strategy : Crude palm Oil (CPO)

Buy MCX CPO Nov between 410-415, SL -395, Target - 438 / 445


18/20

Sugar

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| October 15, 2012


NCDEX Sugar futures that had declined sharply in the previous session have

witnessed some signs of recovery last week on back of optimistic sentimentscaused by possible decontrolling of sugar industry . NCDEX November contract

settled 1.4% higher w-o-w. Liffe sugar remained under downside pressure on the

back of supply pressure from brazil.

Commerce Ministry seeks extension of free sugar exports

The order allowing free export of sugar lapsed on Sept 30 and thus commerce

department says the order should be extended indefinitely as sugar stocks are

sufficient to meet domestic demand. The food ministry, however wants a

cautious approach to ensure that prices do not rise in the festival season.

Rangarajan Committee favors sugar decontrol The Committee finally recommended that India should lift curbs on its tightly

controlled sugar sector. Regulatory changes with respect to quota mechanism,

Pricing, export import norms etc has been strongly recommended. Creating

positive sentiments in the market.

Brazil Sugar ship line up falls on clear weather

Sugarcane harvesting in Brazil was down 7.9% as on 1st October 2012 at 24 mn tn.

Unica expects the main center-south cane to yield 32.7 mn tn sugar output in

2012-13, down 1.2 % from the 33.1 mn tn forecast in April. Favorable weather in

the second half of September should allow harvest and exports to run on

schedule despite a couple of days of rain last week that slowed crushing. Thus

sharp upside in the international prices may be capped.

Outlook

With positive sentiments in the market with respect to sugar decontrol coupled

festive season demand may keep sugar prices firm in the coming weeks.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX SUGAR Nov between 3310-3360, SL -3190, Target - 3545 / 3575


19/20

Kapas/Cotton

Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday| October 15, 2012


NCDEX Kapas futures settled higher by 2.07% on account of emerging demand at

lower levels. ICE Cotton futures also settled 2.2% higher w-o-w ahead of short

coverings after facing a huge m-o-m loss.

CAB Meet: Cotton output to decline by 5% in 2012-13 and Exports to dip

India's cotton crop in 2012-13 (Oct-Sep) is expected to fall 5% to 33.4 mln bales from

35.3 mln bales in the previous year, according to the Cotton Advisory Board.

Slight rise in domestic demand for cotton from textile mills in the current year is

estimated at 23 mln bales.

A drastic fall in exports is expected to 7.0 mln bales in the 2012/13 marketing year

that began on Oct. 1 from 12.9 mln bales a year ago as China demand falls.

China to issue 2013 cotton import quotas

RTRS China will issue low-tariff import quotas (TRQ) for cotton for 2013. The government

will issue 894,000 tonnes of cotton quotas, according to the announcement posted

on the commission's website (www.ndrc.gov.cn).

USDA monthly supply demand report raised ending stocks estimates

In its October monthly crop report, the Agriculture Department of U.S. government

raised its global inventory forecast for the season to end-July 2013 by 3.4 percent to

a record of 79.11 million 480-lb bales due to a combination of sharply higher

production and reduced consumption ahead of demand drop from china .

Outlook

Cotton prices are expected to consolidate around current levels. Prices are ruling

around the MSP levels and no major downside is expected despite commencement

of harvesting. Also, farmers might hold back their stocks if prices fall further.

However, sharp upside will also be capped on expectations of lower exports next

season and rise in global cotton ending stocks ahead of weak Chinese demand.

Strategy

Buy NCDEX KAPAS April'13 between 920-930, SL -875, Target - 999 / 1010


20/20

Thank You!

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000

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Commodities Weekly Tracker -15th October 2012

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Transcript of Commodities Weekly Tracker -15th October 2012