Commodities Weekly Tracker 6th May 2013

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    Commodities & Currencies

    Weekly Tracker

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerContents

    Returns

    Non Agri Commodities Currencies

    Agri Commodities

    Non-Agri Commodities

    Gold

    Silver

    Copper Crude Oil

    Currencies DX, Euro, INR

    Agri Commodities

    Chana

    Black Pepper Turmeric

    Jeera

    Soybean

    Refine Soy Oil & CPO

    Sugar

    Kapas

    Monday | May 6, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    1.0

    0.7 0.6

    (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)

    (1.1)

    (2.0)(2.1)

    (1.6)

    (1.1)

    (0.6)

    (0.1)

    0.4

    0.9

    Currencies Weekly Performance

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    3.6

    2.8

    0.8 0.80.5 0.4 0.2

    (0.2)

    (2.4)(2.5)

    (1.5)

    (0.5)

    0.5

    1.5

    2.5

    3.5

    Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance

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    *Weekly Performance for May contract, Chilli June Contract

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    GoldWeekly Price Performance

    Spot gold prices increased around 0.5 percent in the last week. The yellow metal

    touched a weekly high of $1487.8/oz and closed at $1470.20/oz in last trading session

    of the week. In the Indian markets, prices declined by 0.9 percent on account of appreciation in the

    Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.26825/10 gms on Friday after touching a weekly low of

    Rs. 26365/10 gms.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded

    fund, declined by 1.6 percent to 1,065.61 tonnes as on 3rd May 2013 from previous

    level of 1,083.05 tonnes as on 26th April 2013.

    Factors that influenced upside in gold prices Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments

    Weakness in the DX.

    Favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone.

    Further, European central bank (ECB) slashed interest rates to 0.5 percent supported

    prices.

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a positive note as a result of

    upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further,expectations of favorable economic data from major global economies will support an

    upside in the prices. Additionally, decline in US unemployment rate in last week will

    act as a positive factor for the prices.

    Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap gains in the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Gold : Support 1,465/1,440 Resistance 1,492/1514. (CMP: $1477.20)

    Buy MCX Gold June between 26,820-26,780, SL-26,600, Target- 27,400.(CMP:

    Rs.27,089)

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    1,750

    1,800

    25,500

    26,500

    27,500

    28,500

    29,500

    30,500

    31,500

    MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz

    79.0

    79.5

    80.0

    80.5

    81.0

    81.5

    82.0

    82.5

    83.0

    83.5

    84.0

    1,350

    1,400

    1,450

    1,500

    1,550

    1,600

    1,650

    1,700

    Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Gol d -$/oz US Dol lar Inde x

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    SilverWeekly Price Performance

    Spot silver gained 0.4 percent in the last week. The white metal prices

    touched a high of $24.58/oz in the last week and closed at $24.07/oz in last

    trade of the week.

    On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.1 percent as a result of appreciation

    in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.44776/kg on Friday after touching a

    low of Rs.43172/kg in the last week.

    ETF Performance

    Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed

    exchange-traded fund, gained by 0.37 percent to 10,431.39 tonnes as on

    3rd May 2013 from previous level of 10,392.42 tonnes as on 26th April

    2013 .Factors that influenced upside in silver prices

    Rise in gold prices

    Upside in the base metals.

    Further, favorable economic data from major global economies supported

    an upside in the prices.

    Optimistic global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX .

    Outlook

    In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade higher taking cuesfrom rise in the gold prices coupled with upside in the base metals

    complex.

    Further, expectations of favorable economic data from major global

    economies will support an upside in the prices.

    Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap gains in the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Spot Silver: Support 23.95/23.30 Resistance 24.70/25.34. (CMP:24.24)

    Buy MCX Silver July between 45,000-44,900, SL-44,100, Target -46,400.

    (CMP:45,371)

    22

    24

    26

    28

    30

    32

    42,000

    44,000

    46,000

    48,000

    50,000

    52,000

    54,000

    56,000

    58,000

    60,000

    MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance

    MCX-Near Month Silver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Silver Futures -$/oz

    79.0

    79.5

    80.0

    80.5

    81.0

    81.582.0

    82.5

    83.0

    83.5

    84.0

    22.0

    24.0

    26.0

    28.0

    30.0

    32.0

    Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index

    Spot Si lver -$/ oz US Dol lar Inde x

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    CopperWeekly Price Performance

    Copper prices increased by 3.6 percent in the previous week. The red metal

    touched a weekly high of $7306.5/tonne and closed at $7290/tonne in the last

    trading session of the week.

    On the domestic front, prices ended on positive note by 3.4 percent and closed at

    Rs. 395.30/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs. 395.9/kg in the last week.

    Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in the prices on the MCX.

    Copper Inventories

    LME copper inventories declined around 1.76 percent in the last week and stood

    at 608,700 tonnes as on 3rd May, 2013 as against 619,600 tonnes as on 26th April,

    2013 .

    Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 1.6percent and stood at 213,782 tonnes for the week ending on 3rd May, 2013.

    Factors that influenced upside in the copper prices

    Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the

    DX. Further, favorable unemployment rate and consumer sentiment data from US

    supported an upside in the prices.

    Additionally, decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories acted as a positive

    factor for the prices.

    Outlook

    Copper prices are expected to trade on a positive note on the back of optimistic

    global markets coupled with weakness in the DX.

    Additionally, decline in LME and Shanghai inventories along with expectations of

    favorable economic data from the major global economies will support an upside

    in the prices.

    Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap gains in the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    LME Copper: Support 7125/6944 Resistance 7471/7652. (CMP: $7290)

    Buy MCX Copper June between 387-385, SL-380, Target -405. (CMP:397.30)

    365

    375

    385

    395

    405

    415

    425

    435

    445

    455

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,400

    7,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    LME and MCX Copper Price Performance

    LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)

    6,800

    7,000

    7,200

    7,4007,600

    7,800

    8,000

    8,200

    8,400

    318,000

    368,000

    418,000

    468,000

    518,000

    568,000

    618,000

    LME Copper v/s LME Inventory

    Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Crude OilWeekly Price Performance

    On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 2.8 percent.

    On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 1.6 percent and closed at

    Rs.5,156/bbl on Friday after touching a high of Rs.5168/bbl in the last week.Appreciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp upside in the prices on theMCX.

    US Energy Department Facts and Figures

    As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventoriesincreased more than expectations by 6.7 million barrels to 395.30 millionbarrels for the week ending on 26th April 2013. Crude oil inventories are at thehighest level in last 82 years.

    Gasoline stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels to 216.0 million barrels and whereasdistillate stockpiles rose by 0.5 million barrels to 115.80 million barrels for thelast week.

    Factors that influenced upside in crude oil prices Unexpected decline in US unemployment rate which led to expectations of rise

    in demand for the fuel. Further, decline in the Brent crude oil performance ledto fall in the spread between WTI and Brent which supported an upside in thecrude oil prices.

    Additionally, rise in US consumer sentiments coupled with weakness in the DXacted as a positive factor for the prices.

    However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of increase in EuroZone unemployment rate along with decline in manufacturing data from Chinaand US.

    Outlook

    We expect crude oil prices to trade on positive note on the back ofexpectations of favorable economic data from the major economies.

    Further, weakness in the DX, upbeat global market sentiments along with dropin spread between Nymex and WTI will support an upside in the prices.

    However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of rising US crude oilinventories.

    Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap gains in the prices on the MCX.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 93.90/91.80 Resistance 97.70/99.85 (CMP:96.49)

    Buy MCX Crude May between 5070-5050, SL-5000, Target -5250.(CMP:5198)

    86.0

    88.0

    90.0

    92.0

    94.0

    96.0

    98.0

    4,700

    4,800

    4,900

    5,000

    5,100

    5,200

    5,300

    5,400

    Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance

    MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)

    361.3

    360.3

    363.1369.1

    371.7

    372.2

    376.4

    377.53

    381.4

    384

    382.7

    385.9

    388.6 388.9

    387.6

    388.6

    395.3

    360

    365

    370

    375

    380

    385

    390

    395

    400

    Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance

    US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.5 percent in the last week.

    The Indian Rupee appreciated by more than 1 percent on weekly basis.

    Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX

    Optimistic global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the low yielding

    currency.

    Further, decline in US unemployment rate coupled with rise in consumer sentiments

    and non-farm employment change data acted as a negative factor for the currency.

    Additionally, US equities traded on a positive note which exerted downside pressure in

    the DX.

    Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee

    Cut in the repo and reverse repo rates by the central banks of the country. Further, selling of dollars from exporters and custodian banks also supported an upside

    in the currency.

    Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in

    the DX acted as positive factor for the Indian Rupee.

    FII Inflows

    For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.2,606.30 crores ($483.38 million)

    as on 3rd May 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.63,642.70 crores

    ($11,793.70 million) till 3rd May 2013.

    Outlook We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of expectations of

    favorable industrial production and manufacturing output data from the country.

    Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global and

    domestic market sentiments will support an upside in the currency. However, sharp

    upside in the currency will be capped as a result of expectations of deficit in trade

    balance data of the country.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    USD/INR MCX May Support 53.70/53.40 Resistance 54.40/54.80. (CMP: 54.0)

    US Dollar Index: Support 81.50/80.90 Resistance 82.60/83.20. (CMP: 82.07)

    79.0

    79.5

    80.0

    80.5

    81.0

    81.5

    82.0

    82.5

    83.0

    83.5

    US Dollar Index

    53.0

    53.5

    54.0

    54.5

    55.0

    55.5

    56.0

    $/INR - Spot

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    EuroWeekly Price Performance

    The Euro appreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a

    weekly high of 1.3242 and closed at 1.3113 against dollar on Friday.

    Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro

    European Central Bank (ECB) cutting the interest rates by 25 bps coupled with

    statement from ECB President signaling that bank is ready for negative deposits

    rate.

    Further, favorable economic data from the region, upbeat global market

    sentiments along with weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency.

    However, rise in the Euro Zone unemployment rate capped sharp gains in the

    Euro.

    News Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 0.5

    points to 44.7-mark in April as against a rise of 44.2-level in March. Italian

    Manufacturing PMI rose by 1 point to 45.5-level in April from earlier rise of 44.5-

    mark a month ago.

    European Minimum Bid Rate cut to 0.5 percent in May from earlier 0.75 percent

    in April. German Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent in March as against a fall of

    0.6 percent a month ago. Spanish Flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined

    by 0.5 percent in last month with respect to earlier fall of 0.8 percent in

    February. Unemployment Rate grew by 12.1 percent in March as compared torise of 12 percent a month ago.

    Outlook

    We expect the Euro to trade on positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite

    in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, cut in

    the interest rates by the European Central Banks (ECB) along with expectations

    of favorable economic data from the region will support an upside in currency.

    Weekly Technical Levels

    EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.296/1.285 Resistance 1.325/1.340. (CMP: 1.3107)

    1.275

    1.285

    1.295

    1.305

    1.315

    1.325

    1.335

    1.345

    1.355

    1.365

    Euro/$ - Spot

    69.0

    69.5

    70.0

    70.5

    71.0

    71.5

    72.0

    72.5

    73.0

    EURO/INR - Spot

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    Chana

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Chana prices declined for the second consecutive week on account of increasing

    arrivals & subdued demand at higher levels.

    Chana spot as well as May futures settled 3.14% & 3.48% lower w-o-w.

    Rising inflows at higher levels

    Higher prices since the beginning of the month has led to a significant increase in

    arrivals last week which dragged prices lower.

    Chana output revised marginally down- Third Advance Estimates

    According to the third advance estimates released last week, Chana output is

    pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance

    estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11

    record of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13.Seasonal pressure to keep prices under downside pressure

    Chana prices tend to follow a seasonality pattern, wherein prices decline during

    the harvesting period and bottom out when arrivals reach their peak in the

    month of May. Thus, we expect the current downward trend to continue till the

    month end.

    World pulses market well-balanced

    At the International Pulse Trade and Industries Confederation annual

    convention, chick pea (desi), production is pegged up at 9.7 mt from 9.4 mt. in

    2012-13 following a huge spurt in Pakistan crop.

    Outlook

    Downward trend in Chana is expected to continue on the back of increasing

    arrivals. However, on the downside prices may not sustain below Rs 3200 per qtl

    mark, the level being a Minimum Support price, below which farmers may not

    sell their produce. Also stockiest demand may emerge at such low levels and

    thus we may see a recovery in the Chana prices June onwards.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX CHANA June between 3530-3570, SL -3680, Target - 3360 / 3330

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    Turmeric

    Source: Agriwatch & Reuters

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    Turmeric Futures remained in the negative territory for the third consecutive

    week on account of higher arrivals of the new crop coupled with huge carryover

    stocks. However, buying by stockists as well as demand from interstate buyers,

    supported prices at lower levels. Lower output expectations for 2012-13 crop on

    the back of poor sowing also supported the prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-

    35% lower compared to last year.

    According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern

    Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the futures

    settled 4.9% and 0.32% lower w-o-w.

    Weak exports data

    Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn.(Source Factiva)

    Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season

    Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as

    well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th

    October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower

    as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).

    Lower production in the 2012-2013 season

    Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last

    year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported

    at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.

    Outlook

    Turmeric may is expected to trade with a negative bias in the coming week as

    higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. Huge carryover stocks may

    also pressurize prices. However, good demand from the overseas as well as the

    domestic markets may support prices at lower levels. Lower production estimates

    coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.

    Weekly Strategy

    Sell NCDEX Turmeric June between 6450-6500, SL -6800, Target - 6000 / 5940.

    Monday | May 6, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Jeera

    Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.

    Commodities Weekly Tracker

    Weekly Price Performance

    After declining over the last two weeks, Jeera recovered from lower levels last

    week on account of short coverings. The pace of arrivals of the fresh crop have

    also declined from its peak last month. Prices had declined earlier due to higher

    output estimates. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last

    3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.

    The spot as well as the futures settled 1.02% and 2.23% lower w-o-w.

    Second consecutive year of higher output

    Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par

    with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply

    concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices

    and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports

    Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva)

    Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions

    between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They

    have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.

    International Scenario

    According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tonnes while

    production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tonnes, lower by 20% and

    around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.

    Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).

    Outlook

    Jeera may continue to decline till no fresh overseas demand is seen. However,

    prices may recover later in the week if there is any improvement in the domestic

    as well as overseas demand. Farmers may also be unwilling to sell their stocks at

    lower levels and may hold back their stocks.

    Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera June between 13150-13200, SL -13650, Target - 12480 / 12400.

    Monday | May 6, 2013

    Source: Reuters & Angel Research.

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    Soybean

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    NCDEX Soybean traded in a range bound manner with some negative bias last week.

    Imposition of special cash margin coupled with Weak meal export demand

    pressurized prices while poor supplies supported prices at lower levels. IMD has alsoforecast a normal monsoon this. The futures settled 0.36% lower w-o-w.

    CBOT Soybean gained 1.69% on account of tight supplies of the old US crop.

    India's soy meal Exports Fall by 68 Percent during FY12-13 SEA

    Indias soy meal exports for the month of April 2013 were 99.451 tonnes, lower by

    68.31 percent from 313,832 tonnes a year ago.

    Increase in the output in the 3rd Advance Estimates

    As per the 3rd Advance Estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture, soybean

    output increased to 14.14 mn tn from 12.24 mn tn in the previous estimates.Imposition of Special margin long on Soybean and Soy meal

    Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side has been imposed in Soybean and

    Soy meal May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 contracts wef April 30, 2013.

    USDA to release its monthly crop report on 10th May

    USDA is scheduled to release its monthly crop report. According to market

    estimates, the ending stocks are expected to decline.

    A jump in Brazil exports

    According to the Trade Ministry of Brazil, soybean exports shot up from 3.54 mntonnes in March to 7.15 mn tonnes in April 2013.

    Outlook

    Poor supplies in the domestic and US markets may support soybean prices in the

    current week. Traders also anticipate the USDA monthly report to lower their

    soybean ending stocks. However, higher long side margin, normal monsoon forecast,

    and weak soy meal exports from India may exert downside pressure at higher levels.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Soybean June between 3820-3860, SL -3680, Target - 4070 / 4100.

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    Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Weekly price performance

    Edible oil complex remained in the negative territory taking cues from the

    palm oil futures at KLCE. Strong exports data also supported prices. Palm Oilfutures at KLCE declined as traders liquidated long positions ahead of

    elections. CPO prices at MCX and KLCE settled 2.29% and 3% lower. Soy oil

    also settled 0.18% and 1% lower on NCDEX and CBOT respectively.

    Global Scenario

    Malaysian palm oil products export for April fell 4.3 percent to 13.1 lakh tons

    from March. Better buying witnessed from Indian and European buyers.

    Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, has set its crude palm oil export

    tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asian

    country calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crudepalm oil for May.

    Domestic Scenario

    Indias imports of palm oil fell for a second straight month in March, as

    domestic supply improved and purchases by the worlds biggest buyer

    continued to suffer from an import levy imposed in January.

    Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to

    896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports.

    Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to

    850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1.Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

    India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October

    2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as

    the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.

    Strategy

    Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil June between 680-685, SL -663, Target - 711 / 715.

    MCX CPO May Support 433/445, Resistance 463/473.

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    Sugar

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Sugar prices settled marginally lower by 0.1% last week as higher supplies is seen

    offsetting the summer demand. ICE sugar is currently trading at its lowest levels since June 2010 and settled 0.7%

    lower on account of global sugar surplus situation for third consecutive year.

    Sugar output likely to fall 3% this year

    India is expected to have produced around 24.52 million tonnes (mt) of sugar

    during the first six months of the 2012-13 sugar marketing season. In 2012-13,

    sugar recovered from crushing was 10.09 per cent.

    India sugar reserves at five-year high set to avert imports

    Sugar inventories in India, the largest consumer, are poised to surge by 37% to9.2 million tonnes at the start of October, a five-year high as exports grind to a

    halt because of slumping global prices even as a drought threatens cane planting.

    Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4 million

    tonnes in 2011-2012. .

    Brazil to produce record 35.5 million tonnes of sugar

    Brazil's main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of

    sugar in 2013/14 season, an increase of 4.1% from the 34.1 mn tn produced last

    year, according to Sugar & ethanol industry association Unica.

    US Department of Agriculture officials in Brasilia forecast sugar exports fromBrazil, the top producer and shipper of the sweetener, hitting 29.3m tonnes in

    2013-14, for which the cane crush has just begun.

    Outlook

    Sugar prices are expected to consolidate at lower levels this week. Higher

    supplies in the local markets will continue to mount pressure on prices as millers

    will release stocks to clear arrears. This will offset summer season demand.

    Strategy

    NCDEX Sugar May :Support-2850/2920, Resistance- 3020/3100.

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    Kapas/Cotton

    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

    Weekly Price Performance

    Cotton futures recovered last week and settled 1.3% higher on account of short

    coverings. Lower levels buying also supported an upside in the prices.

    ICE Cotton futures gained 3% last week on strong export sales data and U.S.

    plantings delays which prompted worry over upcoming supplies. US export sales for

    the week ending April 25 reached 314,400 running bales, up 32% from previous

    week and most since mid-January.

    Govt Likely to Sell More Cotton this Month

    Cotton Corporation & NAFED are expected to offload 8 lakh bales at lower prices.

    After an unsuccessful bid to offload of 2.5 lakh bales of cotton in April, the

    government has now decided to give it a fresh chance.

    Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season

    compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to

    go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.

    Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales.

    China to sell high-quality state cotton reserves

    China will start to sell its high-quality reserves of fibre, which should spur purchases

    by textile mills after Beijing's stockpiling tightened domestic supplies.

    Starting on Friday, 19

    th

    April, govt has offered cotton imported in 2011 andpurchased from the 2012 harvest and has allowed textile mills to buy up to 8

    months' worth of consumption. Beijing has said it would offer a total of 4.5 million

    tonnes for the auctions to last until end of July.

    Outlook

    With CCI and NAFED offloading more stocks in the local markets, Cotton may remain

    under downside pressure in the current week. However, if international markets

    recover sharply, then we may see prices taking a rebound from lower levels.

    Strategy

    Sell MCX Cotton May between 18500-18600, SL -18950, Target - 17970 / 17890.

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    Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | May 6, 2013

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