Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013
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Transcript of Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013
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7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013
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Commodities & Currencies
Weekly Tracker
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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents
Returns
Non Agri Commodities Currencies
Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold
Silver
Copper Crude Oil
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper Turmeric
Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
Monday | April 29, 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
1.1
0.5
(0.5)
(0.7) (0.7)
(0.9)(1.3) (1.3)(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5Currencies Weekly Performance
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
3.1
1.90.4
(1.3)
(3.6)(4.3)
(5.0)(6.2)
(10.4)(10.5)
(8.5)
(6.5)
(4.5)
(2.5)
(0.5)
1.5
3.5
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance
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*Weekly Performance for April contract
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
GoldWeekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices increased around 4.2 percent in the last week. The yellow metal
touched a weekly high of $1484.81/oz and closed at $1462.50/oz in last trading
session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices gained by 4.8 percent as a result of depreciation in the
Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.27055/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of
Rs.27447/10 gms in the last week.
ETF Performance
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded
fund, declined by 3.56 percent to 1,083.05 tonnes as on 26th April 2013 from
previous level of 1,123.06 tonnes as on 19th April 2013.
Factors that influenced upside in gold prices Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments
Weakness in the DX.
Further, expectation of rise in physical demand after the biggest drop also supported
an upside in the prices.
Additionally, rise in central bank purchases along with favorable economic data from
US acted as a positive factor for the prices.
Outlook
In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a result ofUS GDP growing at a slower pace than the expectations. Further, expectations of
unfavorable economic data from major global economies will add downside pressure
on the prices. However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of
weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the world will
continue with its stimulus measures..
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Gold : Support 1,435/1,400 Resistance 1,480/1510. (CMP: $1469.70)
Sell MCX Gold June between 27500-27600, SL - 28000, Target 26750 / 26650 (CMP:
Rs.27,204)
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
25,500
26,500
27,500
28,500
29,500
30,500
31,500
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.582.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
84.0
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index
Spo t Go ld -$ /o z US Dol lar In de x
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SilverWeekly Price Performance
Spot silver gained 3.5 percent in the last week. The white metal prices
touched a weekly high of $24.82/oz and closed at $23.98/oz in the last
trading session of the week.
On the domestic front, prices rose by 4.4 percent as a result of
depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs. 44805/kg on Friday after
touching a weekly high of Rs.45820/kg.
ETF Performance
Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver-backed
exchange-traded fund, decline by 0.56 percent to 10,392.42 tonnes as on
26th April 2013 from previous level of 10,451.01 tonnes as on 19th April
2013.Factors that influenced upside in silver prices
Rise in gold prices
Upside in the base metals.
Optimistic global market sentiments, favorable economic data from US
along with weakness in the DX .
Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues
from fall in the gold prices coupled with downside in base metals complex.
However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of
weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the
world will continue with its stimulus measures.
In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add
downside pressure on the prices on the MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver: Support 22.90/21.75 Resistance 25.0/26.10. (CMP:24.22)
Sell MCX Silver July between 47800-47900, SL - 49950, Target 44500 /
44000. (CMP:45216)
22
24
26
28
30
32
42,000
44,000
46,000
48,000
50,000
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
MCX- Near Month Si lver Futures - Rs/ kg Comex Si lver Futures - $/oz
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
84.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Silver -$/ oz US Dollar Index
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CopperWeekly Price Performance
Copper prices increased by 1 percent in the previous week. The red metal
touched a weekly high of $7258/tonne and closed at $7038/tonne in last trading
session of the week.
On the domestic front, prices gained by 2 percent as a result of depreciation in
the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.382.20/kg on Friday after touching a high of
Rs.389.4/kg in the last week.
Copper Inventories
LME copper inventories gained around 0.85 percent in the last week and stood at
619,600 tonnes as on 26th April, 2013 as against 614,350 tonnes as on 19th April,
2013.
Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai fell by 2.9percent and stood at 217,180 tonnes for the week ending on 26th April, 2013.
Factors that influenced upside in the copper prices
Upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in DX. Additionally,
favorable economic data from US along with fall in Shanghai inventories also
supported an upside in the prices.
However, sharp upside in the prices was capped on account of rise in LME copper
inventories and unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone.
Outlook
Copper prices are expected to trade on a negative note on the back of rising
inventories, expectations of negative data from China, US and Euro Zone.
However, sharp downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of weakness
in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks over the world will
continue with its stimulus measures.
Appreciation in Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure in prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
LME Copper: Support 6860/6680 Resistance 7270/7500. (CMP: $7010.75)
Sell MCX Copper June between 398-400, SL-412,Target 380 / 377. (CMP:379.75)
365
375
385
395
405
415
425
435
445
455
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
LME and MCX Copper Pr ice Performance
LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
6,800
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
318,000
368,000
418,000
468,000
518,000
568,000
618,000
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
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Crude OilWeekly Price Performance On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices increased around 5.7 percent.
On the domestic bourses, prices gained by 6.9 percent on the back of
depreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.5,077/bbl on Friday aftertouching a high of Rs.5094/bbl in the last week.
US Energy Department Facts and Figures As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories
increased less than expectations by 0.9 million barrels to 388.60 million barrelsfor the week ending on 19th April 2013.
Gasoline stocks fell by 3.9 million barrels to 217.80 million barrels and whereasdistillate stockpiles rose by 0.1 million barrels to 115.30 million barrels for thelast week.
Factors that influenced upside in crude oil prices
Less than expected rise in US crude oil inventories, upbeat global marketsentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economicdata from US and UK supported an upside in crude oil prices.
However, sharp upside in the crude prices was capped on account of decline inmanufacturing and services PMI data from Euro Zone and rise in Spanishunemployment rate.
Outlook We expect crude oil prices to trade on positive note on the back of crude oil
inventories growing at lower pace and decline gasoline inventories.
Further, weakness in the DX coupled with expectations that central banks overthe world will continue with its stimulus measures will support an upside in the
prices. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of expectations of
unfavorable economic data from major economies.
Also, US GDP grew at slower pace than forecast will affect demand for fuel.
Appreciation in Indian Rupee will exert downside pressure in prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 96.90.75/94.50 Resistance 101.80/104.80
(CMP:92.61)
Buy MCX Crude Oil May between 4950-4980, SL-4830, Target5170/5200.(CMP:5037)
86.0
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
4,700
4,800
4,900
5,000
5,100
5,200
5,300
5,400
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
MCX crude oil (Rs/bbl) NYMEX Crude Oil ($/bbl)
361.3
360.3
363.1
369.1
371.7
372.2
376.4
377.53
381.4
384
382.7
385.9
388.6 388.9
387.6
388.6
360
365
370
375
380
385
390
Crude Oil Inventories (mn barrels)
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DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance
US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in the last week.
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent on weekly basis.
Factors that influenced downside movement in the DX
Rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for
the low yielding currency. Additionally, favorable new home sales, jobless claims along
with rise in GDP and consumer sentiments data from US also exerted downside
pressure on the currency.
Further, US equities traded on a positive note which acted as a negative factor for the
DX.
Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee
Dollar demand from crude oil and gold importers. However, upbeat global and
domestic market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in
the currency.
Further, forecast that economy will grow by 6.4 percent in the current fiscal year as per
the Economic Review report of the government, selling of dollars from exporters and
custodian banks along with expectations of increase in foreign inflows prevented sharp
fall in the Indian Rupee.
FII Inflows
For the month of April 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4,450.0 crores ($822.66 million) as
on 26th April 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.60,072.30 crores
($11,132.70 million) till 26th April 2013.
Outlook
We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of expectations of
cut in key rates by the central bank in its stimulus measures to be declared on 3 rd May
2013. Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with forecast for positive economic
data from the country will support an upside in the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR MCX May Support 54.10/53.75 Resistance 55.0/55.45 (CMP: 54.28)
US Dollar Index: Support 82.0/81.50 Resistance 83.10/83.50 (CMP: 82.32)
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
US Dollar Index
53.0
53.5
54.0
54.5
55.0
55.5
56.0
$/INR - Spot
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EuroWeekly Price Performance
The Euro depreciated by 0.2 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a
weekly low of 1.2954 and closed at 1.3026 against dollar on Friday.
Factors that influenced upside movement in the Euro
Decline in the regions manufacturing and services PMI data coupled with fall in
the German Ifo business climate.
Further, more than expected rise in the Spanish unemployment rate also
exerted downside pressure on the currency.
However, weakness in DX coupled with optimistic global market sentiments
cushioned sharp decline in the currency.
News
Spanish Unemployment Rate rose to 27.2 percent in Q4 of 2012 as against a rise
of 26 percent in Q3 of 2012.
German Ifo Business Climate declined by 2.3 points to 104.4-mark in April as
against a rise of 106.7-level in March. Italian Retail Sales fell by 0.2 percent in
February from earlier decline of 0.4 percent a month ago.
European Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.3 points to 46.5-mark in April
when compared to rise of 46.8-level a month ago. Flash Services PMI rose by 0.2
points to 46.6-level in current month from rise of 46.4-mark in prior month.
European Consumer Confidence was at -22-level in March from earlier fall of 24-
mark in February.
Outlook
We expect the Euro to trade on positive note on the back of rise in risk appetite
in the global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. However,
sharp upside in the currency will be capped as a result of expectations of
unfavorable economic data from the region.
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.2910/1.2800 Resistance 1.3140/1.3220 (CMP:
1.3046)
1.275
1.285
1.295
1.305
1.315
1.325
1.335
1.345
1.355
1.365
Euro/$ - Spot
69.0
69.5
70.0
70.5
71.0
71.5
72.0
72.5
73.0
EURO/INR - Spot
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Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Chana prices declined for the second consecutive week on account of increasing
arrivals & subdued demand at higher levels.
Chana spot as well as May futures settled 3.14% & 3.48% lower w-o-w.
Rising inflows at higher levels
Higher prices since the beginning of the month has led to a significant increase in
arrivals last week which dragged prices lower.
Chana output estimated at 8.5 mn tn
Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is
estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13. However, according to market sources,
output may revised marginally lower due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Punjab may offer higher MSP on Pulses
To encourage diversification, the Punjab state government is considering setting
up of state costs and price commission for crops like soybean and pulses, and
offering state minimum support price (MSP) on them.
World pulses market well-balanced
At the International Pulse Trade and Industries Confederation annual
convention, field pea production for 2013-14 was estimated at 10.8 mn tn (9.9
mt). World dry bean production was estimated at 21.3 mt (21.2 mt), however,
world lentil production is projected to be slightly lower at 3.67 mt (3.73 mt). In case of chick pea (desi), production is seen up at 9.7 mt from 9.4 mt. in 2012-
13 following a huge spurt in Pakistan crop.
Outlook
Chana is expected to decline this week on account of increasing inflows of the
new crop. However, emergence of fresh demand at lower levels may support
prices at lower levels.
Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX CHANA May between 3530-3570, SL -3690, Target - 3345 / 3320.
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Black Pepper
Source: Reuters & Angel Research
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper Futures remained sideways with a negative bias last week. Higher supplies
from Karnataka coupled with weak export demand pressurised prices while lowersupplies as well as good demand for Kerala crop supported prices at lower levels.
Low stocks in the exchange accredited warehouses also supported prices.
The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.76% and 0.44% lower w-o-w.
Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,800/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is
quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn
Averages daily arrivals stood at 36 tn while offtakes stood at 36 tn last week.
Expectations of higher output in 2012-13
According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and
carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.
India Apr-Jan 2013 pepper exports stood at 11,500 tn, lower by 48%. (Source Factiva)
Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in
2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production
from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of
the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.
Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against
32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade sideways with a negative bias this week.
Higher arrivals of the Karnataka crop coupled with weak overseas demand may
pressurize prices at higher levels. However, good demand for the Kerala pepper
coupled with low supplies may support the prices. Lack of stocks for delivery due
to lock up of pepper in the NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support
prices.
Weekly Strategy Sell NCDEX Pepper May between 35500-35600, SL -36450, Tgt - 34250 / 34050.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Turmeric
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric Futures continued to decline last week as higher arrivals of the new crop
mounted pressure on the prices. Huge carryover stocks also added to the
downside pressure. However, good overseas as well as demand from interstate
buyers, specially the upcountry markets supported prices at lower levels. Lower
output expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported
the prices. Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.
According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern
Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the futures
settled 2.67% and 3.62% lower w-o-w.
Weak exports data
Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn.(Source Factiva)
Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season
Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as
well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th
October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower
as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last
year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported
at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.
Outlook
Turmeric may is expected to trade with a negative bias in the coming week as
higher arrivals of the new crop may pressurize prices. Huge carryover stocks may
also pressurize prices. However, good demand from the overseas as well as the
domestic markets may support prices at lower levels. Lower production estimates
coupled with arrivals of good quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.
Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX Turmeric May between 6450-6550, SL -6800, Target - 6060 / 6000.
Monday | April 29, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Jeera
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera declined for the second week on account of higher arrivals. Demand was
also reported to be weak. However, higher exports data supported the prices at
lower levels. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till Jan 2013. Last 3
years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around 5-6 lk bags.
The spot as well as the futures settled 1.02% and 2.23% lower w-o-w. .
Second consecutive year of higher output
Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par
with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply
concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices
and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.
Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports Jeera exports during Apr-Jan 2013 stood at 64,400 tn, higher by 86%. (Source Factiva)
Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions
between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They
have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while
production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and
around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.
Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).
Outlook
Jeera may continue to trade lower this week as higher arrivals of the new crop is
expected to pressurise prices. However, any improvement in the domestic as well
as overseas demand may support prices at lower levels. Farmers may also be
unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels and may hold back their stocks.
Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera May between 13100-13200, SL -13750, Target - 12280 / 12160.
Monday | April 29, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Soybean
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly price performance
NCDEX Soybean traded on a bullish note in the initial part of the week on account on
poor supplies. However, imposition of special cash margin on the long side coupled
with IMDs forecast of a normal monsoon this year led to a correction from higherlevels towards the end of the week. The futures settled 4.4% higher w-o-w.
CBOT Soybean settled 0.18% higher w-o-w owing to tight supplies old US soy crop.
IMD Forecast normal Southwest monsoon for 2013 season
Indian Meteorological department (IMD), released its First long Range Forecast,
wherein it predicted southwest monsoon rains at 98% of long period average.
Imposition of Special margin long on Soybean and Soy meal
Special Margin (in Cash) of 10% on the Long side will be imposed in Soybean and Soy
meal May 2013, June 2013 & July 2013 contracts wef Tuesday, April 30, 2013.India's soy meal Exports Fall by 12 Percent during FY12-13 SOPA
The annual soy meal exports in the FY 2012-2013 (April-March) were 34,33,916.546
tons, decreased by 12.28 percent from 39,14,683.205 tons a year ago.
India soy meal exporters renegotiate deals with Iran
Indian soy meal suppliers are renegotiating deals with Iranian buyers for April and
May shipments as demand for Indian soy meal has slowed significantly due to the
higher prices, and buyers are seeking alternative South American supplies.
Brazil congestion delays export of record soybean crop Most of Brazil's soybean harvest goes to China, where it is fed to chickens and used
to make tofu, etc. However, recent rains have caused delay ion shipments.
Outlook
An increase in the margin, normal monsoon forecast, and weak soy meal exports
from India may exert downside pressure on the domestic soybean prices. However,
poor supplies may support prices at lower levels.
Strategy
Sell NCDEX Soybean May between 4050-4100, SL -4250, Target - 3820 / 3785
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Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex traded on a positive note last week tracking positive palm
oil futures at KLCE. Strong exports data also supported prices. Seasonallylower yield period of Malaysian palm oil and firm soy oil also lent support to
the prices. CPO prices at MCX and KLCE settled 1.02% and 0.79% higher. Soy
oil also settled 2.1% and 1.02% higher on NCDEX and CBOT respectively.
However, comfortable supplies capped sharp upside.
Global Scenario
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for April 1-25 rose 5.25 percent to
1,123,129 tonnes from 1,067,140 tonnes shipped during March 1-25
Malaysia, the world's No.2 palm oil producer, will set its crude palm oil export
tax for May at 4.5 percent, unchanged from April. The Southeast Asiancountry calculated a reference price of 2,347.26 ringgit per tonne for crude
palm oil for May.
Domestic Scenario
Indias imports of palm oil fell for a second straight month in March, as
domestic supply improved and purchases by the worlds biggest buyer
continued to suffer from an import levy imposed in January.
Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, fell 7.5 per cent to
896,714 tn in March, pulled down by the drop in palm oil imports.
Stockpiles of edible oil at ports fell nearly nine percent during March to
850,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1.
Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.
India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October
2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as
the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil May between 708-712, SL -695, Target - 732 / 735.
Buy MCX CPO May between 454-458, SL -444, Target - 474 / 476.
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Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Sugar prices hit a fresh contract low of Rs. 2910 last week and settled 0.61%
lower as higher supplies is seen offsetting the summer demand. ICE sugar is currently trading at its lowest levels since June 2010 and settled
3.39% lower on hopes of third back to back year of global sugar surplus situation.
Indias 2012-13 Sugar production declines 2 per cent
The mills crushed about 240 mln tonnes of sugarcane into 24.11 mn tn of sugar,
white value, by April 15, which is 1.9% less than the 24.571 mln produced by this
time last year. The sugar recovery rate is down at 10.11% this season from
10.29% a year ago.
EU could become sugar exporter if quotas abolished
The European Union could eventually become a net exporter of sugar if plans to
abolish production quotas in coming years are implemented.
EU, net sugar importer, is now in talks on proposed reforms to its protected sugar
regime, which restricts output to prop up prices.
Brazil's cane zones dry out, sugar harvest seen quickening
Center-south cane belt will stay dry for the next few weeks, according to
forecaster Somar, speeding up the harvest of cane and output of sugar that was
hampered by an unusually wet start to April.
Brazil's sugar production will jump to a record level in the 2013/14 season justnow starting, with a surge in cane output from an expanded planted area,
favorable weather and efforts to renew old and less productive cane plants.
Outlook
Sugar is expected to consolidate at lower levels this week. Higher supplies in the
domestic markets will continue to mount pressure on the prices as millers will
release stocks to clear cane arrears. This will offset summer season demand.
Strategy
NCDEX Sugar May :Support-2850/2800, Resistance- 3020/3060
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7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013
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Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
After declining sharply over the last three weeks due to an upward revision in
production and imports estimates, Cotton futures recovered 2.28% on account of
short coverings. Reports that CCI has started to release stocks in the local marketscapped sharp upside.
ICE Cotton declined 1.47% w-o-w on reports of selloff by investors coupled with
liquidation of long positions by speculators.
CCI Commences Release of Cotton Stocks in Domestic Market
CCI which procured nearly 21 lakh bales of cotton at MSP level, has started to
release some quantity into late last week. The CCI had also sought approval from the
Ministry of Textiles for export of 10 lakh bales.
Cotton Advisory Board sees lower kharif sowing CAB in its latest meet has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season
compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to
go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales.
Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales. While Import are estimated 2.5 mn bales.
China to sell high-quality state cotton reserves
China will start to sell its high-quality reserves of fibre, which should spur purchases
by textile mills after Beijing's stockpiling tightened domestic supplies.
Starting on Friday, 19
th
April, govt will offer cotton imported in 2011 and purchasedfrom the 2012 harvest, and will allow textile mills to buy up to 8 months' worth of
consumption. Beijing has said it would offer a total of 4.5 million tonnes for the
auctions to last until end of July.
This may dampen demand for foreign fibre from mills in the no. 1 textile market.
Outlook
Cotton may trade under downside pressure as near term supply side fundamentals
remain strong wiht CCI has started releasing stocks from their state reserves.
Strategy
Sell MCX Cotton May between 18650-18700, SL -19100, Target - 18050 / 17950.
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7/30/2019 Commodities Weekly Tracker, 29th April 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | April 29, 2013
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