Commodities Weekly Tracker, 25th March 2013
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Transcript of Commodities Weekly Tracker, 25th March 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerContents
Returns
Non Agri Commodities Currencies
Agri Commodities
Non-Agri Commodities
Gold
Silver
Copper Crude Oil
Currencies DX, Euro, INR
Agri Commodities
Chana
Black Pepper Turmeric
Jeera
Soybean
Refine Soy Oil & CPO
Sugar
Kapas
Monday | March 25, 2013
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
1.41.4
0.80.6
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1.0
1.5Currencies Weekly Performance
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1.9
1.1 1.0
0.3
(0.2) (0.2)
(0.8)
(1.2) (1.2)(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Non-Agri Commodities Weekly Performance
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Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
GoldWeekly Price Performance
Spot gold prices gained around 1 percent in the last week. The yellow metal
touched a weekly high of $1616.36/oz and closed at $1607.95/oz in lasttrading session of the week.
In the Indian markets, prices gained by 1.1 percent on account of depreciation
in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.29676/10 gms on Friday after touching
an intra-day high of Rs. 29889/10 gms in the last week.
Factors that influenced upside in gold prices
Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which attracted demand
for safe haven.
Cyprus parliament rejected the proposal for the levying taxes on bankdeposits which led to concerns over the Euro Zone debt crisis along with
unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone supported an upside in the prices.
However, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) coupled with US Federal
Reserve statement that it will continue with its bond buying program
prevented further gains in the prices.
Outlook
In the coming week, we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note as a
result of European Finance Ministers agreeing a bailout package for Cyprus
thereby affecting the safe haven demand for gold.
However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in the prices.
Appreciation in Indian Rupee will add downside pressure in prices on MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Gold : Support 1,595/1,575 Resistance 1,625/1645. (CMP: $1610.70)
Sell MCX Gold April between 30000-30050, SL 30300, Target 29600 /
29550 (CMP - 29634)
1,550
1,600
1,650
1,700
1,750
1,800
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
31,000
31,500
MCX and Comex Gold Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Gold Futures -Rs/10 gms Comex Gold Futures -$/oz
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
84.0
1,550
1,570
1,590
1,610
1,630
1,650
1,670
1,690
Spot Gold Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Gold - $/oz US Doll ar Inde x
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SilverWeekly Price Performance
Spot silver declined 0.2 percent in the last week. The white metal prices
touched a low of $28.53 /oz in the last week and closed at $28.67/oz in the
last trade of the week.
On the domestic front, prices fell by 0.1 percent and closed at Rs. 54125/kg
on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs. 53972/kg. Depreciation in the
Indian rupee prevented sharp fall in prices.
Factors that influenced downside in silver prices
Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone coupled with Cyprus bailout
issue.
Additionally, strength in the DX, downside in base metals pack along with
increase in US unemployment claims also exerted downside pressure onthe prices.
However, sharp downside was cushioned on the back of upside in gold
prices, favorable home sales and manufacturing data from US, China along
with rise in UKs retail sales. US Federal Reserve statement that it will
continue with its bond buying program Depreciation in the Indian Rupee
also prevented further fall.
Outlook In the coming week, we expect silver prices to trade lower taking cues fall
in the gold prices. Further, downside in the prices will be cushioned on account of weakness
in the DX coupled with upside in the base metals complex.
In the domestic markets, appreciation in the Indian Rupee will add
downside pressure on the prices on the MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
Spot Silver: Support 28.30/27.50 Resistance 29.90/30.50. (CMP:28.83)
Sell MCX Silver May between 55250-55350, SL 56450, Target 53500.
(CMP:54163)
28
29
29
30
30
31
31
32
32
33
53,000
54,000
55,000
56,000
57,000
58,000
59,000
60,000
MCX and Comex Silver Price Performance
MCX-Near Month Si lver Futures -Rs/ kg Comex Si lver Futures -$/oz
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
Spot Silver Vs US Dollar Index
Spot Silver -$/oz US Dollar Index
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CopperWeekly Price Performance
Copper prices fell by 1.2 percent in the previous week. The red metal touched a
weekly low of $7,486.25/tonne and closed at $7,668/tonne in the last tradingg
session of the week.
On the domestic front, prices declined by 1 percent and closed at Rs. 419.20/kg
on Friday after touching a low of Rs 411.90/kg in the last week. Depreciation in
the Indian Rupee prevented further fall in the prices.
Copper Inventories
LME copper inventories gained around 7 percent in the last week and stood at
562,475 tonnes as on 22nd March, 2013 as against 525,825 tonnes as on 15th
March, 2013.
Copper inventories in the warehouse monitored by the Shanghai rose by 3.2percent and stood at 239,273 tonnes for the week ending on 22nd March, 2013.
Factors that influenced downside in the copper prices
Negative economic data from Euro zone coupled with strength in the DX.
Additionally, Cyprus bailout issue, weak global market sentiments along with rise
in LME and Shanghai copper inventories exerted downside pressure on prices.
However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on account of favorable
manufacturing data from US and China and rise in US existing home sales data.
Outlook Copper prices are expected to trade on a positive on the back of ease in the Euro
Zone debt crisis, expectations of rise in durable goods orders along with weakness
in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on account of rising inventories.
Appreciation in the Indian Rupee will cap sharp gains in the prices on the MCX.
Weekly Technical Levels
LME Copper: Support 7500/7310 Resistance 7775/7900. (CMP: $7685.25)
Buy MCX Copper April between 411-413, SL - 402, Target 430 / 432.
(CMP:418.60)
410
415
420
425
430
435
440
445
450
455
7,400
7,500
7,600
7,700
7,800
7,900
8,000
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
LME and MCX Copper Price Performance
LME Copper Future ($/tonne) MCX Near Month Copper Contract (Rs/kg)
7,400
7,500
7,600
7,700
7,800
7,900
8,000
8,100
8,200
8,300
8,400
318000.00
368000.00
418000.00
468000.00
518000.00
568000.00
LME Copper v/s LME Inventory
Copper LME Inventory (tonnes) LME Copper Future ($/tonne)
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DX/ INRWeekly Price Performance
US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated by 0.3 percent in the last week. The currency touched
a weekly high of 83.315 and closed at 82.529 on Friday.
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.6 percent on weekly basis.Factors that influenced upside movement in the DX
Rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to increase in demand
for the low yielding currency. Additionally, European Union giving ultimatum to Cyprus
to seek the bailout of 5.8 billion Euros which the nation was struggling to agree thereby
worsening the Euro Zone debt crisis also supported an upside in the currency.
Unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone also acted as a positive factor for the DX.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of favorable economic
data from the US.
Factors that influenced movement in the Rupee
On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.6 percent. The currency depreciated
on the back of DMK withdrawing its support from the UPA government which created
political uncertainty in the nation. Further, weak global market sentiments coupled
with strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of selling of dollars
from exporters and custodian banks.
FII Inflows
For the month of March 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.7,546.80 crores ($1,384.39
million) as on 22nd March 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at
Rs.54,044.90 crores ($10,019.0 million) till 22nd March 2013.
Outlook
We expect Indian Rupee to appreciate in the current week on back of upbeat global
market sentiments after ease in Euro Zone debt crisis coupled with weakness in the DX.
However, expectations of negative fiscal deficit for the country can cap sharp gains.
Weekly Technical Levels
USD/INR MCX March Support 54.15/53.65 Resistance 55.05/55.50 (CMP: 54.50)
US Dollar Index: Support 81.75/81.40 Resistance 82.85/83.20 (CMP: 82.20)
79.0
79.5
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
US Dollar Index
53.0
53.5
54.0
54.5
55.0
55.5
56.0
$/INR - Spot
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EuroWeekly Price Performance
The Euro depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week. The Euro touched a low of
1.2843 in the last week and closed at 1.2985 against dollar on Friday.
Factors that influenced downside movement in the Euro
ECB said it may cut the emergency fund to Cyprus bank after March 25 if a
Cyprus does not come with a plan to ensure bank solvency.
Further, unfavorable economic data from Euro region coupled with strength in
the DX added downside pressure on the currency.
News
German Ifo Business Climate declined by 0.7 points to 106.7-mark in March as
against a rise of 107.4-level in February. Belgium National Bank of Belgium (NBB)
Business Climate was at -15-mark in March from previous fall of 11-level in thelast month.
The European Union, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary
Fund (IMF) have agreed a aid package of 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) for the
Cyprus nation. As per the agreement the Cyprus Popular Bank Pcl (CPB) will be
shutdown and spilt. Bank of Cyprus will take over the assets of the closed bank
along with 9 billion Euros in central bank which was provided for emergency
liquidity aid.
European Flash Manufacturing PMI declined by 1.3 points to 46.6-level in
present month with respect to increase of 47.9-mark in last month. EuropeanFlash Services PMI dropped by 0.8 points to 46.5-level in existing month when
compared to 47.3-mark in February.
Outlook
We expect the Euro to trade on positive note due to ease in the regions debt
crisis after the European Finance Minister agreed to provide aid to the Cyprus
nation. Weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency.
Weekly Technical Levels
EURO/USD SPOT: Support 1.285/1.275 Resistance 1.315/1.330 (CMP: 1.3035)
1.285
1.295
1.305
1.315
1.325
1.335
1.345
1.355
1.365
Euro/$ - Spot
70.0
70.5
71.0
71.5
72.0
72.5
73.0
EURO/INR - Spot
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Chana
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Chana futures remained firm in the early part of the week on account of strong
demand from the stockiest at lower levels. However, increasing arrival pressure
led prices to decline towards the later part of the last week.
On a weekly basis, Chana spot settled 1.5% lower while April futures declined by
0.6%.
Increasing arrivals exerting downside pressure on prices
Arrivals of new crop from MP has gained momentum and thus prices have
declined considerably in the last week due to supply pressure.
However, prices may not fall below their MSP (Rs 3200 per qtl), as demand will
emerge at such low levels. Also, farmers may not sell their produce below these
levels.Bumper Chana output estimated for 2012-13 season
According to the final figures from ministry of agriculture dated 22nd February
2012, Chana sowing is 3.6% higher at 95.15 lakh ha compared to previous year.
Chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record of 8.2 mn tn and is
estimated at 8.57 mn tn for 2012-13.
Chana imports declined in the month of February 2013
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of February declined to 0.46
lakh metric tonnes compared to 2.31 lakh metric tonnes during the previousmonth.
Outlook
Arrivals of chana may increase further once harvesting commences from the
second largest producing state, Rajasthan. Increasing arrival pressure may keep
chana prices under downside pressure. However, robust buying by the stockiest
at lower levels may prevent sharp fall in the chana prices.
Weekly Strategy
Sell NCDEX CHANA April between 3380-3420, SL -3460, Target - 3310 / 3290
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Black Pepper
Source: Reuters & Angel Research
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
Pepper Futures traded on a positive note last week due to good demand for the
Kerala pepper. Low stocks and delay in harvesting of the fresh crop alsosupported prices. However, higher arrivals of the new crop from Karnataka and
lower overseas demand pressurised prices over the preceding two weeks.
The Spot settled 1.15% lower while the Futures settled 0.59% higher w-o-w.
Indian Pepper is being offered at $6,925/tn (C&F NY). Vietnam and Brazil Austa is
quoted at $6,925-6,975/tn and $6,600/tn, Indonesia GM-1 is quoted at $6,900/tn
Averages daily arrivals stood at 18 tn while offtakes stood at 18 tn last week.
Expectations of higher output in 2012-13
According to IPC, Pepper production is expected around 55,000 tn in 2013 and
carryover stocks of about 15,066 tn.
According to market sources India exported 12,000 tn of pepper in 2012.
Global updates
Global pepper production in 2012 is projected at 3.27 lk tn vis--vis 3.17 lk tn in
2011. Vietnam pepper exports in 2012 stood at 116,962 mt. Pepper production
from Vietnam decreased to 1.05 lk tn in 2012 from 1.1 lk tn in 2011. Harvesting of
the fresh crop from Vietnam will commence in the coming days.
Exports from Brazil during Jan-Nov 2012 are reported at 25900 tn, as against
32650 tn in the same period last year, down by about 20%.Outlook
Pepper Futures is expected to trade on a mixed note this week. Good interstate
demand for the Kerala pepper is likely to support prices. Low stocks coupled with
lower supplies and lack of stocks for delivery due to lock up of pepper in the
NCDEX accredited warehouses may also support prices. However, arrival pressure
of the inferior quality crop from Karnataka may pressurise prices at higher levels.
Weekly Strategy NCDEX Pepper Trend Sideways. S2- 34400, S1- 35200, R1- 36500, R2- 37000.
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Turmeric
Source: Agriwatch & Reuters
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Turmeric Futures traded on a negative note last due to good supplies at higher
levels. However, overseas as well as domestic demand supported prices at lower
levlesfrom states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Delhi, and Kolkata. Lower output
expectations for 2012-13 crop on the back of poor sowing also supported the
prices. NCDEX has imposed 10% special margin on long side to curb the volatility.
Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year.
The farmers are reportedly keeping around 12 lakh bags of turmeric with them.
Stocks in Nizamabad reported around 6.5 lakh bags, which is lower than Erode.
According to the weather department, rainfall in the key grown region (Southern
Peninsula) is reported at 10% below normal. The spot as well as the Futures
settled 1.05% and 2.16% lower w-o-w.
Lower acreage of Turmeric for the 2012-13 season
Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as
well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th
October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower
as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha).
Lower production in the 2012-2013 season
Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last
year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported
at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.Outlook
Turmeric may trade lower in the initial part of the week extending previous
weeks losses. Higher supplies and an increase in the margin may also pressurise
prices. Huge carryover stocks may also keep prices at check. However, prices may
recover from lower levels due to good demand from the domestic as well as the
overseas markets. Lower production estimates coupled with arrivals of good
quality crop may also support prices at lower levels.
Weekly Strategy Buy NCDEX Turmeric April between 6370-6430, SL -5950, Target - 7070 / 7160.
Monday | March 25, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Jeera
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Gujarat.
Commodities Weekly Tracker
Weekly Price Performance
Jeera traded on a negative note last week cutting short its three week gain due to
higher arrivals of the new crop. However, export as well as domestic demand
supported prices at lower levels. Sowing in Gujarat was reported at 3.244 lk ha till
Jan 13. Last 3 years average sowing is 3.189 lk ha. Stocks are reported at around
5-6 lk bags.
The spot as well as the Futures settled 0.49% and 2.34% lower w-o-w.
Second consecutive year of higher output
Indias 2013 Jeera output is estimated at 38-40 lakh bags (of 55kgs each), at par
with the production in 2012. However, increase in the exports due to supply
concerns in the global markets offset the impact of higher supplies on the prices
and thus, medium term fundamentals remain supportive for the upside.Global supply concerns boost Jeera exports
According to market sources, the exports target of 45,000 tn has already been
achieved. Total exports for 2012-13 season is now estimated at 60,000 tn.
Due to lower production in Syria and Turkey, coupled with the ongoing tensions
between them, exports are not taking place and have been diverted to India. They
have stopped shipments. Turkey may start offering its Jeera in the coming days.
International Scenario
According to reports, production in Syria is reported around 22,000 tons while
production in Turkey is reported between 5000-7000 tons, lower by 20% and
around 50% respectively, raising supply concerns in the international markets.
Indian Jeera in the international market is being offered at $2,600/tn (c&f).
Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note this week. Fresh overseas enquiries/ domestic
demand may support prices. Farmers may not also sell their stocks at low prices.
However, improvement in arrivals of the new crop may pressurise prices.
Weekly Levels Sell NCDEX Jeera April between 13370-13430, SL- 13980, Tgt- 12550/12450.
Monday | March 25, 2013
Source: Reuters & Angel Research.
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Refine Soy Oil and Crude Palm Oil
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
Weekly price performance
Edible oil complex declined sharply taking cues from KLCE palm oil futures
which gained on expectations of fall in inventories. Crude palm oil prices atMCX and KLCE settled 1.6% and 4.75% higher respectively While, Soy oil
prices at NCDEX and CBOT gained 0.01% & 1.04% respectively w-o-w.
Global Scenario
Malaysian palm oil futures could rise to 2,400-2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865)
per tons by the end of May due to weaker production and falling trend in
palm oil inventories. By end of June 2013, Malaysian palm oil stocks will dip
below 2 mn tn and Indonesian stocks would below 4 mn tn. However, after
June prices will come under pressure as low palm oil production cycle ends -
Mistry. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 fell 7 percent to
1,055,914 tonnes compared with 1,134,872 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-25.
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 2.2 percent to
438,549 tonnes from 429,070 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-10.
Domestic Scenario
India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October
2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as
the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty.
India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last
month, with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes.
Total stocks at the end of February rose around 12 percent from January to
about 2 mn tn (estimates include both stocks at ports and pipeline).
Strategy
Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil April between 672-677, SL -660, Target - 695 / 699
Buy MCX CPO April between 457-462, SL -450, Target - 473 / 475
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Sugar
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
NCDEX Sugar April futures declined 3.4% as the government deferred a decision
on freeing up the tightly controlled industry amid mounting supplies.
After witnessing gains in the past few weeks, Liffe sugar settled 2.3 percent lower
last week on profit taking. Expectations of abundant supplies from the 2013-14
harvest in the centre-south of Brazil and other leading producers, such as
Thailand, Mexico and the United States, capped the upside potential in prices.
Indias 2012-13 sugar output seen at 24.6 mln T
India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30,
higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn.
the country's sugar output in 2013-14 marketing year could decline to 22-23
million tonnes, as against 24.5-25 million tonnes this year.Govt will take 'appropriate' decision on sugar decontrol
Pitching for decontrol of the sugar sector, Minister of State for Agriculture Tariq
Anwar said the government will take "appropriate" decision on the issue.
Barring two key regulations with respect to fixing sugarcane price and sharing of
70 per cent revenue by sugar firms with farmers, the Rangarajan Committee
report has suggested giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market and
having a stable export and import policy .
Czarnikow widens forecast for 2012-13 sugar surplus
Czarnikow on Wednesday raised its forecast for a projected global sugar surplus
to 9.1 mn tn, raw value, up from December s projection of 7.8 mn tn in 2012-13.
Outlook
Although supplies continue to remain high in the domestic markets, we dont
expect sugar prices to decline much from the current low levels considering the
firm international markets. Further, crushing will now start declining amid lower
cane availability this season.
Strategy
NCDEX Sugar April Trend Sideways Support- 2850/2895, Resistance -2945/3000
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Kapas/Cotton
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
Weekly Price Performance
After witnessing eight consecutive weekly gains, MCX Cotton futures declined
sharply last week on reports state-run Cotton Corporation Of India (CCI) would
offload stocks in the open market to augment supplies. MCX Cotton and NCDEXKapas declined ICE Cotton futures posted its biggest weekly slide in nine months on
reports of India and China releasing stocks from the state reserve.
India to liquidate stocks from state reserves
lower supplies in the domestic markets and rising cotton prices have caused
concerns for textile industry, which is demanding government to direct CCI and
NAFED to offload the cotton stock to domestic mills.
CCI is expected to offload 4 lakh bales in the domestic market and NAFED will sell
3.63 lakh cotton bales from the first week of April 2013.
India cotton imports seen lower than earlier estimate
India's imports of cotton this year could reach 1.5 mn bales, missing earlier
estimates of more than 2 mn as the govt may to start selling its stockpiles.
China to offload stocks from reserves
China, the worlds largest consumer, is expected to sell about 3 mn tn of cotton this
year from state reserves of around 10 mn tn.
US planting intention data to be released this week
USDA has initially forecasted US Cotton acreage for 2013-14 season, at smallest in20 yrs, however, with recent surge in prices, farmers may decide to plant more
cotton. The planting intention data is schedule to be released on 28th march 2013.
Outlook
In the current week, we expect Cotton prices to trade with downward bias on
expectations supplies may increase in the open market. However, It is crucial to
keep a close watch on US planting intentions which may have an impact on prices. A
decline in cotton acreage may lead to un upside in the prices and vice a versa.
Strategy
Sell NCDEX KAPAS April between 950-960, SL -990, Target - 905 / 895
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Thank You!
Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.
Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 3083 7700Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, Central Road, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000
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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness.
The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any
recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]
Commodities Weekly TrackerMonday | March 25, 2013
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