Center for Deliberative Democracy - ICARE · Tamale, Ghana – Deliberative Poll Dates: January...
36
1 Center for Deliberative Democracy Deliberative Polling ®
Transcript of Center for Deliberative Democracy - ICARE · Tamale, Ghana – Deliberative Poll Dates: January...
1
Center for Deliberative Democracy Deliberative Polling ®
2
Competitive Elite Participatory DeliberativeDemocracy Deliberation Democracy Democracy
Political equality + ? + +Participation ? ? + ?Deliberation ? + ? +Non-tyranny + + ? +
Four Democratic Theories
?
3
Method Of Selection
Public Opinion
Self-selection
Non-random
Random sample “Everyone”
Raw SLOPS Some polls Most polls Ref. democracy
Refined Discussion
groups Citizens,
Juries, etc. Deliberative
Polls “Deliberation
Day”
Eight Forms of Public Consultation
Public consultation: Two basic questions
• Who is consulted?
• What kind of opinion is solicited?
5
Public Opinion: Three Problems
• Rational Ignorance
• Phantom Opinions
• Selectivity of Sources
6
Key components:
• Balanced information
• Small group deliberation
• Expert Q & As
7
• Random sampling/ representative samples
• Control groups who do not deliberate
8
Key components:
9
ProjectsAroundtheWorld• DeliberativePollshavebeenconductedin28countries(plussomeadditionaljurisdictions):Argentina,Australia,Brazil,Bulgaria,Canada,China,Croatia,Denmark,Greece,Ghana,Hungary,Italy,Japan,Korea,Macao,Macedonia,Malawi,Mongolia,theNetherlands,N.Ireland,Poland,Senegal,Tanzania,Thailand,Uganda,UK,andUS.
• Inaddition,European-widewithall27countries(twice)
• MultipleDPs,intheUK,US,China,Italy,Japan,Bulgaria,Australia,UgandaandHungary.
10
11
China - April 2005
12
14
Greek Deliberative Poll for Candidate Selection Preliminary Results June 2006
National Issues Convention 1996
Japan(2011)
• NationalProjectonPensions– Supportforthe“funded”(privateaccount)systemdecreasedfrom69to35percent
– Increaseinconsumptiontaxes–Agreementincreasedfrom64to75percentandDisagreementfellfrom32to19percent
Japan,NationalDPonEnergy
6047,8
29,8
67,4
40,423,9
0%scenario 15%scenario 20-25%scenario
%SupportforThreeNuclearEnergyScenarios
Time1
Time3
19
Community Perceptions
Time 136%
Time 140%
Time 150%
Time 150%
Time 2 52%
Time 2 56%
Time 2 60%
Time 2 62%
Most Protestants are“open to reason”
Most Catholics are“open to reason”
Most Protestants are“trustworthy”
Most Catholics are“trustworthy”
Bulgaria(2007)
• NationalProjectonPoliciesTowardtheRoma– “TheRomaschoolsshouldbeclosedandallthechildrenshouldbetransportedbybusestotheirschool.”Agreementrosefrom42to66percent.
– “Romaschoolsshouldbepreserved.”Agreementfellfrom46to24percent.
21
Utility Deliberative Poll®
22
Illustrative Preference Changes
Averageof8UtilityDeliberativePolls Time1 Time2
Percentagewillingtopayextraforincreasedwindandsolarpower.
52% 84%
52%
84%
Time 1 Time 2
23
Illustrative Preference Changes
Averageof8UtilityDeliberativePolls Time1 Time2
Percentagewillingtopaymoretoreducetheneedforelectricity(demandsidemanagement) 43% 73%
43%
73%
Time 1 Time 2
24
25
• Thepercentagethinking"yearsinservice"wasimportantinawardingpayincreaseswentfrom65.6%beforedeliberationto48.8%afterward(p<.01).
12,0%
22,2%
65,6%
24,0%
27,2%
48,8%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0%
Unimportant
In the middle
Important
Unimportant In the middle Important After 24,0% 27,2% 48,8% Before 12,0% 22,2% 65,6%
26
% who said they strongly or somewhat prefer:
Pre, 45%
Post, 38%
Pre, 51%
Post, 62%
converting bedsin other
resources
keeping all theexisting beds
Tamale, Ghana – Deliberative PollDates:January10-11,2015Topics
§ Water,Sanitation,andHygiene§ FoodSecurityandLivelihood
Scientificrandomsampleof243individualsRandomselectionofhouseholds,randomselectionwithinthehouseholds.Onlytworespondentsselecteddidnottaketheinitialsurvey
§ 208Participants§ Highlyrepresentativesample
§ Male:47.6%ofparticipants§ Averageage:33.7years§ 27.9%ofparticipantshadneverbeentoschool;3.9%firstdegreeholders
§ 35non-participants;individualsdidnotattendtheeventordidnotcompletebothsurveys
PolicyAttitudes
• 39policyproposals• 29changedsignificantlywithdeliberation
Mongolia’sFirstNationalDeliberativePoll
ConstitutionalAmendmentsApril29-30,2017
Mongolia’s First National Deliberative Poll on Constitutional Amendments – April 29-30, 2017
Topic:ConstitutionalAmendments• AlawwaspassedinFebruary2017,requiringtheuseof
DeliberativePollingtoconsultthepublicforanyconstitutionalamendments
• Assuch,ledtothefirstnationalDeliberativePollonconstitutionalamendmentsinMongolia,heldApril29-30,2017
• Sixcategoriesofproposalsforconstitutionalamendments:– MaintainingthebalanceofauthorityandoversightoftheParliament
andGovernment– ClarifyingtheroleofthePresident– Establishinganindependentpublicservice– Establishingstructuretoadministrativeandterritorialunits– Creatingmechanismsforstateresponsibilityandaccountability– CreatingtwochambersofParliament
Participants• Highrateofparticipation
– 785wereinvitedtoparticipate,669participated=85%– 1568ininitialsample,1515completedbaselinesurvey;only53peoplerefusedtocompletethesurvey
– NationalStatisticalOfficeofMongoliawasresponsibleforrecruitment;theyemployedstratifiedrandomsampling,withrandomizationwithinhouseholds
• Representativeness– Demographics:slightdifferencesingenderandemployment;nodifferencesinincome,ageormaritalstatus
– Attitudes:15of18policyproposalquestionswerenotsignificant
0,358
0,381
0,473
0,782
0,627
0,39
0,64
0,641
CreatingaParliamentwithtwochambers(***)
ElectingthePresidentforasingle6-yrtermbyexpandedplenarysession(n.s.)
ElectingthePresidentforasingle6-yrterm,withoutreelection(***)
GrantingthePrimeMinistertheauthoritytoappointanddismissthemembersofhis/her
Cabinet(***)
Before After
61.5%41.3%
39.8%34.2%
63.5%32.3%
62.3%73.2%
Note: Percentages reported are percentage of support; the means reported are on a 0 to 1 scale, where 1 is strongly support.
TopTenProposalsAfterDeliberations(%support)
1.AddingthatthePublicServiceCommissionshouldregulaterecruitment,promotion,andsecurityoftenurebasedonmerit(91.4%)2.Addingthatpublicservantscannotbedismissedbecauseofelectionresultsoronthebasisoftheirpoliticalviews(90.4%) 3.Addingthatthepublicserviceshouldbeprofessional,merit-based,andindependentfrompoliticalinterference(87.9%)4.CreatingmechanismintheConstitutionforstateresponsibilityandaccountability(89.4%)5.Creatingmoreclearproceduresandprinciplesforappointmentofjudgesandchiefjustice(83.2%)6.AddingaclausetotheconstitutionthatprotectstheindependenceofthePublicServiceCommission(78.6%)7.AddingthestructureoftheCabinetministriesintheConstitution(79.3%)8.Establishingaparliamentarybodytostrengthenstateaccountabilityandensureimplementationofanti-corruptionpolicies(76.4%)9.GrantingthePrimeMinistertheauthoritytoappointanddismissthemembersofhis/herCabinet(73.2%)10.ExpandingmembershipoftheGeneralJudicialCouncilresponsibleforensuringtheautonomyofthejudiciary(72.5%)
36
• representativeness• opinionchange• informationgain• avoidingdistortions• impactonpolicy• bettercitizens
Criteria For Evaluation
