Climate Change Negotiations From Bali to Copenhagen via Accra & Tamale– Ghana has a stake & influence

Sean Doolan

NL Embassy, DFID Ghana

Sean.Doolan@minbuza.nl

S-Doolan@dfid.gov.uk

Voice & Vision on Climate ChangeSEND Ghana, Tamale27-28 August 2009

What does “climate change” mean?

… for “poverty”, “development”… & Ghana?

Climate & human development

Reaching tipping points – Productivity & food/water security– Humanitarian & disaster risk reduction– GDP impacts, energy– Health implications

Not just extreme shocks– Eroding coping capacity – Protecting past & current progress on human development & growth – Preventing reversal in positive trajectory– Vulnerable groups & regions

Climate change negotiations ongoing

Post-2012 framework negotiations - UNFCCC• Bali 2007 to Copenhagen 2009• Fast-moving, fragmented, overload

Implications of CC for development• Adaptation (how cope & reduce risk?)• Mitigation (how prevent? adapt energy? link to carbon markets)• Action at country & regional levels

Low income countries?

Views differ

Perceptions matter

High income countries?

Climate change & disaster risk responses

Significant governance challenges• Who is involved - top-down, bottom-up?• National & sector levels, Institutional structure?• How strategies are crafted – what content?

Multiple stakeholders• MDAs, MoFEP, Castle• Different sector groups, local government• Civil society, academia, industry

Barriers

• Financial downturn – political & economic distraction

• Too much pressure on developing countries• Too many meetings• Strategic interests• Uncertainty on best strategies• Institutional patchwork• Fragmentation

Prospects for Copenhagen

• Need political momentum & equity• Need mandate for country negotiators &

politicians• Quantified targets by industrialised countries• General framings of key issues: technology,

REDD, adaptation, financing→ Framework deal→ Discussions on modalities over next 3 years

Big picture 1?

Sub-national

National

Sub-regional

Regional

Global

Community

Household

UNFCCC

African Group & negot’ns

Adaptation Fund Board

Technology transfer

REDD

Forest Carbon Facility

Disaster risk reduction

UNDP – GEF

Africa Adapt ProgEconomics of AdaptationUNFCCC NEEDS study

Carbon finance

Gas flaring

CARE Adapt Learning

Food & agriculture

Public

Big picture 2?

Health

Private Civil society

Finance & Economic Planning

Environment, Science &

Technology

Nat CC committee

Env & NR Council

Technical officials, civil society

Ministers, VP

EnergyForestry

EPA

Civil society

Nat Dev Planning Comm’sn

Met Agency

Foreign Affairs

REDD committee

Informed ability to engage

• How attract interest of politicians?– Need informed ability to engage– Economics (what value, costs?)– Scale (extent, number of voters)

• Towards wider “programmatic approaches”?– Financing mechanisms & country systems -

scale– Allocations & trade-offs across sectors– How integrate into sectoral & national plans &

response?– Carbon markets

• Institutional frameworks & dynamics• Capacity & training

Bali Roadmap

Two negotiation tracks• UN Framework Convention on Climate

Change• Kyoto Protocol

Bali Action Plan 2007

• Shared vision, including long term goal • Mitigation- developed & developing

countries• Adaptation• Technology to support Mitigation &

Adaptation• Finance to support Mitigation & Adaptation

13

International climate change negotiations

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

G8: Germany Japan Italy Canada

Major Economies Meeting

UNFCCC: COP 12 COP 13 COP 14 COP 15 Nairobi Indonesia Poland Denmark

Convention Dialogue

New Kyoto targets for developed Countries –Ad hoc Working Group KP

BALI ROADMAP

Accelerated work plan:

•Convention Negotiations: AWG Long-term Coop Action

•New Kyoto targets for developed countries: AWG Kyoto Protocol

Deal on global &

comprehensive post-2012 framework

UN GA4th AR IPCC UN GA

Other “near-negotiations”: UN HLE, AU, AMCEN, Fin4Dev, APF, V10, APEC, G20, OECD, WTO, IEA …

Major Economies

Forum

EU: Portugal Slovenia France Czech Sweden Spain Belgium

Current status & Parties’ positions

Critical fault lines • Who does what? Who wants what?• All text options now on negotiations table

Key questions• Legal form (binding or not)• Annex I targets• Developing country actions (& support)• Rules & methodologies on how targets/actions are

achieved e.g. role of market-mechanisms (carbon markets),

REDD, financing, technology transfer, Clean Development Mechanism …

Post-2012 deal - five development tests

1. Ambitious goal with credible near-term targets2. A way of sharing greenhouse gas emissions

that is fair & equitable3. Support for technology development &

transfer to benefit developing countries4. Reformed carbon market to increase reach &

impact of carbon finance for poor countries5. Support for developing countries to build

resilience & adapt to climate change

Actors

Major country coalitions– European Union– Umbrella Group– G-77 & China

• AOSIS (small island states)• LDCs• African Group• OPEC members

Non-governmental: over 600 observers– Environmental & development NGOs– Business NGOs– Research NGOs– Local & municipal authorities– Indigenous peoples & organisations

Actors

Env NGOs– Coordinator: Climate Action Network

Business INGOs– Coordinator: International Chamber of

Commerce– Major alliance: World Business Council for

Sustainable Development

Major issues & bloc positions

Mitigation– New emissions targets by developed

countries– Actions by developing countries– Forests: REDD; sustainable forest

management– Emissions trading– Sectoral approaches– Emissions from aviation and ships

Response to climate change must be rooted in development

Development

Mitigation Adaptation

Climate-compatible

development

Climate-proofed

abatement

Climate-resilient

Low-carbon

… but aligned with mitigation & adaptation objectives

South Africa’s vision on climate change

Source: Dept of Environment and Tourism, South Africa

• Transition to climate resilient and low-carbon economy • Our climate response policy, built on six pillars, will be

informed by what is required by science – to limit global temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels

• Continue to pro-actively build the knowledge base and our capacity to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change

• GHG emissions must peak, plateau and decline - stop growing at the latest by 2020-2025, stabilise for up to ten years, then decline in absolute terms

• Long term: redefine our competitive advantage and structurally transform the economy by shifting from an energy-intensive to a climate-friendly path as part of a pro-growth, pro-development and pro-jobs strategy

Adaptation

• Methodology / Assessment: vulnerability, financial needs, capacity-building

• Impact focus: Risk management and risk reduction strategies; Disaster reduction strategies

• Vulnerability focus: poverty eradication; building response capacity; economic diversification

• Integration into national planning• Financing: UNFCCC as facilitator; damage costs?

Technology

• Support of deployment & transfer• Removal of barriers (e.g. subsidies)• Creating favourable investment climates• R&D cooperation• Sectoral focus• Clean Development Mechanism reform• Funding

Finance

• New & additional resources• Positive incentives for developing countries

to mitigate & adapt• Mobilization of public- & private sector

funding• One funding mechanism for mitigation &

adaptation?

Stabilisation & change in temperature – limit to 2oC average global rise

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

400 ppm CO2e

450 ppm CO2e

550 ppm CO2e

650ppm CO2e

750ppm CO2e

5% 95%

Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)

0°C

Emissions need to be cut from several sources – not just power generation

Four ways to cut:• demand

• efficiency

• lower-carbon technologies

• non-energy emissions

Ghana capacity as carbon sink

1996, Ghana a net GHG sink but… 1996, not 2009

12,388 12,267

12,673

14,004 13,99914,265

14,878

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

14,500

15,000

CO

2 EQ

UIV

ALE

NT

EMIS

SIO

NS

(Gg)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Without LUCF

-20,417 -21,191

-15,585

-8,806

-5,411 -5,971-4,082

-26,000

-21,000

-16,000

-11,000

-6,000

-1,000

NET

CO

2 EQ

UIV

ALE

NT

EMIS

SIO

NS

(Gg)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Net, with Land Use Change & Forestry (LUCF)

Development & adaptation: a continuum

Vulnerability ImpactsFocus

Addressing drivers of

vulnerability

Building response capacity

Climate risk management

Confronting climate change

Development assistance UNFCCC

International funding

Uncertainty, lack of awareness RiskKnowledge of climate change

Approach Discrete adaptation Climate resilient development

Major UNFCCC provisions

Chief objectiveArt. 2:

• stabilize greenhouse gas emissions• prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference

with the climate system

Principles– Art. 3(1):

• Equity; ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and capbilities’

– Art. 3(3)• Precautionary principle

– Art. 3(4)• Sustainable development