Business Futures 2010

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Business Futures 2010

A Roux

(Editor)

October 2010


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Contents

IFRBusiness Futures 2010

i

Contents

List of Figures ............................................................... ................................................................. ..................... viiList of Tables ............................................................... ................................................................. .................... xiiiList of Exhibits .................................................................................................................................................... xviii

List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................. ................................ xxAcknowledgements .......................................................................................... ................................................... xxviiInstitute for Futures Research Associates ............................................................................. ............................. xxviiiInstitute for Futures Research Personnel ............................................................................................................. xxx

Chapter 1: Thinking about the Future and Strategic Transformation

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................1-3Business foresight .................................................................................................................................................1-4

Introduction: Strategy and futures thinking ...................................................................................................1-4Barriers to a futures thinking mode ...............................................................................................................1-5

Forecasting, planning and strategy .......................................................... .....................................................1-8The need for sound judgement and purposefulness.....................................................................................1-8Knowledge and foresight ..............................................................................................................................1-9Measuring and making the future ...............................................................................................................1-11Conceptual frameworks for foresight .........................................................................................................1-11

Long-range forecasting: Methods and techniques ................................................................. ..............................1-17Statistical forecasting/extrapolation ............................................................................................................1-18Environmental scanning .............................................................................................................................1-19Delphi studies .............................................................................................................................................1-23Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................1-23Global certainties, uncertainties and challenges.........................................................................................1-26

Using the systems approach in thinking about the future ................................................................ ...................1-33Systems and systems thinking ...................................................................................................................1-33

Idealised redesign ...............................................................................................................................................1-36

Idealised redesign defined .........................................................................................................................1-36The process of idealised redesign .............................................................................................................1-36The contributions of idealised redesign to organisational transformation ...................................................1-37

Managing complexity through corporate governance ..........................................................................................1-38Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................1-38Corporate governance ................................................................................................................................1-38Catalysts for change in corporate governance in South Africa ...................................................................1-39The triple bottom line ..................................................................................................................................1-40References .................................................................................................................................................1-40

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................2-3Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................2-4Socio-political challenges: Development, democracy and diversity ............................................................. ..........2-7

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .....................2-7Social identities, political maturity, equality and diversity ......................................................... ...................2-10Identities constructed; identities reconstructed; identities in flux.................................................................2-12Race and issues of resource distribution ...................................................................................................2-19Identity, nation-building and democracy .....................................................................................................2-29Language ...................................................................................................................................................2-31Movements of faith, religion and the world .................................................................................................2-36Religion in the history of South Africa .........................................................................................................2-51Religious disaffiliation and religious association: Global and national trends .............................................2-53Families and society ...................................................................................................................................2-56References .................................................................................................................................................2-65


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Human development: People are the real wealth of a nation ..............................................................................2-69

Understanding human development ....................................................... ....................................................2-69

The Human Development Reports and measuring human development ...................................................2-70

The links between human development and economic growth ..................................................................2-74

Human development in South Africa ..........................................................................................................2-75

Millennium Development Goals ..................................................................................................................2-78

Happiness and human development ............................................................................ ............................. 2082References .................................................................................................................................................2-83

Demography ........................................................................................................................................................2-85

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................2-85

Global population trends ............................................................... ..............................................................2-85

Sub-Saharan Africa and SADC population trends ........................................................ ..............................2-95

South African population trends..................................................................................................................2-99

Implications of longer term demographic trends .......................................................................................2-109

Population policies ............................................................. ................................................................. ......2-111

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-112

Urbanisation ......................................................................................................................................................2-114

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .................2-114

Global urbanisation trends ............................................................ ............................................................2-114

African urbanisation trends ........................................................... ............................................................2-121South African urbanisation trends ............................................................ .................................................2-125

Urban problems in the world and South Africa .........................................................................................2-129

Implications of urbanisation trends ...........................................................................................................2-136

Urban management and governance .......................................................................................................2-137

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-139

Health and health care ......................................................................................................................................2-141

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .................2-141

Health indicators .......................................................................................................................................2-141

Infectious disease patterns .......................................................................................................................2-152

Health care resources ..............................................................................................................................2-167

Implications of health trends .....................................................................................................................2-172

Health care policy .....................................................................................................................................2-173

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-175Crime and violence ............................................................................................................................................2-179

Global crime trends ..................................................................................................................................2-179

Crime trends in Africa ...............................................................................................................................2-184

Crime trends in South Africa ......................................................... ............................................................2-187

The South African criminal justice system ................................................................................................2-195

The South African correctional services ...................................................................................................2-197

Initiatives to prevent and combat crime and violence in South Africa .......................................................2-198

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-202

Education and training .......................................................................................................................................2-205

Introduction: Why is education and training important? ........................................................... .................2-205

Global and regional education trends .......................................................................................................2-205

South African education and training trends .............................................................................................2-216

Socio-economic implications ....................................................................................................................2-236Education policy developments ................................................................................................................2-241

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-245

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................3-3

A globalising, world: Opportunities, security threats and South Africa ......................................................... ..........3-6

Introduction: Globalisation and globalism .....................................................................................................3-6

Trends ........................................................................................................................................................3-11

Issues .........................................................................................................................................................3-15

Inequality and the marginalisation of the majority world .............................................................................3-21

Democracy .................................................................................................................................................3-23(In)Stability and social cohesion .................................................................................................................3-25


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Policy choices .............................................................................................................................................3-26

Key countries and global re-polarisation? .......................................................... .........................................3-28

South Africas external relations ..........................................................................................................................3-37

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................3-37

South Africas foreign policy: Issues and uncertainties ............................................................ ...................3-38

Relations in Southern Africa .......................................................................................................................3-53

SADC as a regional integrative initiative ............................................................ .........................................3-54Africa and the future ........................................................ ................................................................. ...................3-56

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................3-56

Historical considerations ............................................................... ..............................................................3-56

African initiatives.........................................................................................................................................3-58

Democratisation and human rights in Africa ...............................................................................................3-65

South Africa and the developmental state ....................................................... ....................................................3-72

The South African transition .......................................................................................................................3-72

A South African developmental state ................................................................. .........................................3-74

South Africa and democratic consolidation ........................................................ .........................................3-78

The provincial political environment in South Africa ...................................................................................3-86

Local government transformation ...............................................................................................................3-90

Black economic empowerment ................................................................ ...................................................3-97

Land reform ................................................................................................................................................3-99References ...............................................................................................................................................3-105

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment


The nature and importance of technology .............................................................................................................4-5

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .....................4-5

Technological change and forecasting: The technology S-curve and curves of growth .............................4-7

Technological innovation and the competitive advantage of nations ............................................................4-8

Does a better technological situation lead to increased wealth and a better standard

of living? ................................................................................................................................................4-10

Infrastructural indicators .............................................................................................................................4-11

The strategic management of technology ......................................................... ...................................................4-14

Why manage technology? ..........................................................................................................................4-14

The management of technology .................................................................................................................4-15

Responsibility for technology management ................................................................................................4-16

The enabling and new technologies: Developments and trends ......................................................... ...................4-18

Technological progress and technological transformations ........................................................................4-18

The enabling and new technologies ...........................................................................................................4-20

Information and communication technologies .............................................................................................. ........4-23

Biotechnology, genetic engineering and proteomics .............................................................. ..............................4-36

Materials technologies .........................................................................................................................................4-44

Emerging energy technologies ............................................................................................................................4-50

Transport technologies ........................................................................................................................................4-56

Environmentalism ................................................................................................................................................4-59

Africas and South Africas position in R&D: Expenditure and manpower ...........................................................4-61

Expenditure on R&D ...................................................................................................................................4-62

S&T in Africa indicators and observations ...............................................................................................4-63

Science and technology research excellence at South African institutions ................................................4-66

Centres of excellence .................................................................................................................................4-67

Skilled manpower .......................................................................................................................................4-68

Science and technology policy ............................................................................................................................4-71

Technology policy: Purpose and definition .................................................................................................4-71

Key points regarding national science and technology policies ..................................................................4-71

Science and technology policy in South Africa ...........................................................................................4-72

South Africa is implementing a national technology strategy, but challenges remain .................................4-81

References ..........................................................................................................................................................4-82


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Chapter 5: Natural Environment


Land Resources ....................................................................................................................................................5-5Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .....................5-5

Land-use patterns and change .....................................................................................................................5-5Climate change and African agriculture ......................................................................................................5-14Food production trends in South Africa ......................................................................................................5-16Food security trends ...................................................................................................................................5-19Policy action to achieve food security for all ...............................................................................................5-24Land reform ................................................................................................................................................5-27Grasslands and forest resources ............................................................. ...................................................5-30References .................................................................................................................................................5-36

Water Resources .................................................................................................................................................5-39Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................5-39Global water resources ...................................................... ................................................................. ........5-39South Africas water resources ...................................................................................................................5-45Water resource management and policy ....................................................................................................5-52Implications and conclusion .......................................................... ..............................................................5-56

References .................................................................................................................................................5-57Ocean and fish resources ....................................................................................................................................5-60

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................5-60Global fish resources ..................................................................................................................................5-60South Africas fish resources ......................................................................................................................5-67South Africas estuaries ..............................................................................................................................5-71References .................................................................................................................................................5-72

Mineral resources ................................................................................................................................................5-74Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................5-74The global economy: From crisis to recovery .............................................................................................5-75The mining industry growth, development and employment task team ......................................................5-83Contribution of mining to the economy of South Africa ...............................................................................5-86References .................................................................................................................................................5-89

Energy resources ................................................................................................................................................5-91Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. ...................5-91Total energy................................................................................................................................................5-92Oil ...............................................................................................................................................................5-95Coal ............................................................................................................................................................5-97Natural gas .................................................................................................................................................5-98Uranium and nuclear energy ......................................................................................................................5-99Renewable energy ............................................................. ................................................................. ......5-100Electricity ..................................................................................................................................................5-106Energy security in the South African context ............................................................................................5-108Energy legislation in South Africa ............................................................ .................................................5-110Global climate change and energy use ....................................................................................................5-110References ...............................................................................................................................................5-114

Biodiversity ........................................................................................................................................................5-116

Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .................5-116Global biodiversity loss .............................................................................................................................5-117Biodiversity futures for the 21

stcentury .............................................................. .......................................5-122

Biodiversity in Africa .................................................................................................................................5-123Biodiversity in South Africa .......................................................................................................................5-123Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration ...............................................................................5-126Ecotourism................................................................................................................................................5-129References ...............................................................................................................................................5-130

Waste and pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-132Introduction: Increasing pollution ..............................................................................................................5-132The worlds worst pollution problems........................................................................................................5-132Solid waste ...............................................................................................................................................5-137Water pollution ........................................................ ................................................................. .................5-142

Atmospheric (air) pollution ............................................................ ............................................................5-149Noise pollution ..........................................................................................................................................5-157


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Space pollution .........................................................................................................................................5-158Light pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-158Legislation for the management of waste .................................................................................................5-159Commercial opportunities in the management of waste and pollution ......................................................5-161References ...............................................................................................................................................5-165

Global climate change .......................................................................................................................................5-171Introduction ............................................................. ................................................................. .................5-171Background ..............................................................................................................................................5-171Driving forces: Greenhouse gas emissions ..............................................................................................5-172Radiative forcing .......................................................................................................................................5-173Observable changes in the environment ..................................................................................................5-174Climate change trends ....................................................... ................................................................. ......5-175Impacts of climate change ........................................................................................................................5-177Climate change and risk ...........................................................................................................................5-180Business exposure to climate change and associated risks .....................................................................5-181Sector-specific impacts of global climate change .....................................................................................5-185Dangers of abrupt climate change ............................................................................................................5-188Possible impacts of extreme or abrupt climate changes .......................................................... .................5-189The current state of the carbon market .............................................................. .......................................5-190Mitigation: Biofuels and renewables .........................................................................................................5-191

The governance of climate change .......................................................... .................................................5-191South African national strategy on climate change ....................................................... ............................5-200Long-term mitigation scenarios: Strategic options for South Africa ..........................................................5-201Climate change politics ...................................................... ................................................................. ......5-202Concluding remarks ........................................................... ................................................................. ......5-203References ...............................................................................................................................................5-203

Environmental scenarios for South and Southern Africa ...................................................................................5-208Environmental scenarios for South Africa .......................................................... .......................................5-208Four possible environmental futures ....................................................... ..................................................5-208Lessons and guidelines ............................................................................................................................5-211Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................5-211Environmental scenarios for Southern Africa ...........................................................................................5-212Market Forces Scenario ...........................................................................................................................5-212Policy Reform Scenario ............................................................................................................................5-216The Fortress World Scenario ........................................................ ............................................................5-218References ...............................................................................................................................................5-221

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................6-3Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................6-4

Economics and strategy ...............................................................................................................................6-4Layout of the chapter ....................................................................................................................................6-5

The global context ................. ............................................................... .............................................................. ..6-6The broad structure of the world economy ...................................................................................................6-6The benefits of global economic integration .................................................................................................6-8

The more negative view of global economic integration .............................................................................6-10Winners and losers in globalisation .........................................................................................................6-12The 2008/2009 financial and economic meltdown: From crisis to hesitant recovery ..................................6-14Opportunities, challenges and risks in the global economic and financial system ......................................6-16SA is not immune to global economic headwinds: New challenges and new imperatives ..........................6-18Outcomes and implications.........................................................................................................................6-20

The African context .......................................................... ................................................................. ...................6-22Africa: Reasons for poor economic performance .......................................................... ..............................6-22South Africa in Africa ..................................................................................................................................6-24Prospects for Africa ....................................................................................................................................6-26The changing structure of the South African economy ...............................................................................6-28More prudent fiscal policy since the mid-1990s ............................................................ ..............................6-30Monetary policy remains tight ................................................................. ....................................................6-32

A structurally higher economic growth path? ................................................................ ..............................6-34Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................6-36


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Household income trends ...........................................................................................................................6-38Household consumption trends ..................................................................................................................6-40Gross fixed capital formation ......................................................................................................................6-42Economic infrastructure ..............................................................................................................................6-44The balance of payments: Current account ....................................................... .........................................6-46The balance of payments: Financial account .............................................................................................6-48The balance of payments: Foreign exchange reserves ..............................................................................6-50The exchange rate ............................................................. ................................................................. ........6-52Unemployment: The basic figures ..............................................................................................................6-54Unemployment: Causes .............................................................................................................................6-56Unemployment: Prospects .........................................................................................................................6-58Poverty .......................................................................................................................................................6-60The growing black African middle-class .....................................................................................................6-62Inequality and service delivery....................................................................................................................6-64Labour unions and industrial relations: International trends .......................................................................6-66Labour unions and industrial relations: Labour market flexibility and unemployment .................................6-68Labour unions and industrial relations: Key indicators influencing the labour landscape in South Africa ...6-70Labour unions and industrial relations: Possible future developments and trends .....................................6-72Capital deepening .............................................................. ................................................................. ........6-74The quality of labour ...................................................................................................................................6-76

Productivity .................................................................................................................................................6-78Provincial overview .....................................................................................................................................6-80The two economies of South Africa ......................................................... ...................................................6-82Economic policy challenges........................................................................................................................6-84The accelerated and shared growth initiative of South Africa .....................................................................6-86

References ..........................................................................................................................................................6-88

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................7-3Sustainable development ......................................................................................................................................7-5

The concept of sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-5Related concepts of resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems ..................7-10

Systemic unsustainability ...........................................................................................................................7-11Unsustainable trends: Patterns identified by the IFR ............................................................... ...................7-12High-level panel on global sustainability .....................................................................................................7-15National strategies for sustainable development ........................................................................................7-15Business and sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-18The evolution of sustainability reporting .....................................................................................................7-23Sustainability, strategy and innovation .......................................................................................................7-25Towards a more sustainable future: Transition to a new sustainability paradigm .......................................7-29References .................................................................................................................................................7-31


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List of Figures


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List of Figures

Chapter 1: Thinking about the Future and Strategic Transformation

Figure 1.1: Images of the future ................................................................ ................................................... 1-81.2: A classification of knowledge about the future ........................................................ ................... 1-91.3: Different kinds of futures ......................................................... ................................................. 1-111.4: Long-term cycles as a basis for business foresight ............................................................ ...... 1-131.5: The life cycle of evolution ....................................................... .................................................. 1-141.6: A hierarchy of influence and control in the environment of an organisation ............................. 1-191.7: Multiple perspectives in environmental scanning ............................................................... ...... 1-201.8: Assumption plotting graph: Importance and certainty ........................................................ ...... 1-221.9: Corporate governance and related terminology ................................................................ ....... 1-38

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Figure 2.1: The five interdependent dimensions of redesigning social systems and definingthe state of social systems (SSS) ............................................................ .............................. 2-4

2.2: Integration (homogenisation) and differentiation as necessary qualities of societaldevelopment ............................................................ .............................................................. 2-6

2.3: Representation of employees at senior management level by race and sex, 2000-2008 ........ 2-212.4: South Africas home languages, 2001...................................................................................... 2-332.5: Christian growth per continent, 1900-1995 ............................................................. ................. 2-502.6: Discrepancies in HDI and income for South Africa, Namibia and Brazil ................................... 2-742.7: Size and annual population growth rates of the world population, 1950-2050 ......................... 2-862.8: Population size and annual population growth rates of more and less developed regions,

1950-2050 ...................................................... ................................................................. ...... 2-862.9: Countries with the highest projected annual net migration gains, 2005-2050 .......................... 2-902.10: Countries with the highest projected annual net migration losses, 2005-2050 ......................... 2-902.11: Major refugee hosting countries, end 2009 ............................................................. ................. 2-91

2.12: Proportion of children and older people in the world, 1950-2050 ............................................. 2-912.13: World population age pyramids, 1950, 2010 and 2050 ............................................................ 2-922.14: The population of Europe and Africa by broad age groups, 1950-2050 ................................... 2-932.15: Annual population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, 2005-2015 ......................................... 2-972.16: Sex composition in South Africa during census years 1904-2001, with projections

to 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 2-1012.17: Ranking of provinces by projected population growth rates, 2006-2010 and 2036-2040 ....... 2-1032.18: Population age pyramid of the South African population, 2010 and 2040 .............................. 2-1052.19: Ranking of provinces by percentage children, adults aged 15-64 and older persons,

2010 and 2040 .................................................................................................................. 2-1062.20: South Africa: Net migration gains and losses, 1940-2003 ...................................................... 2-1072.21: Brain drain and gain in South Africa, 1940-2003 ................................................................ .... 2-1072.22: Estimated internal migration in South Africa, 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 .............................. 2-1082.23: Official deportation of illegal immigrants by South Africa, 1994-2009 .................................... 2-1082.24: Urban and rural populations of the world, 1950-2050 ........................................................ .... 2-1142.25: Urban populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050 ..................................... 2-1152.26: Rural populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050....................................... 2-1162.27: Urbanisation levels of major regions, 1950, 2010 and 2050 .................................................. 2-1172.28: The worlds 10 largest urban agglomerations, 1950, 1995, 2010 and 2025 ........................... 2-1192.29: Urban population distribution of the world and more and less developed regions by urban

settlement size, 1970, 2010 and 2025............................................................................... 2-1202.30: Urban and rural populations of Africa, 1950-2050 .............................................................. .... 2-1212.31: Urban and rural populations in South Africa, 1950-2050 ........................................................ 2-1262.32: Urbanisation levels in South Africa by population group, 1904-2008 ..................................... 2-1272.33: Ranking of provinces by urbanisation level, 2008 .............................................................. .... 2-1272.34: Actual and estimated size of South Africas largest cities .................................................. .... 2-1282.35: Annual population growth rates of South Africas largest cities, 1970-1996 and

2001-2007 ...................................................... ................................................................. .... 2-129


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2.36: Slum population as percentage of urban population by region, 2010 ..................................... 2-1302.37: Proportion of urban populations without access to improved drinking-water sources

and sanitation, 2008 ........................................................................................... ............... 2-1322.38: Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities without water on site,

2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-1332.39: Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities with VIP toilets or

less, 2001 and 2007 ................................................................................................... ....... 2-1332.40: Percentage of households in South Africas nine largest cities without refuse collection,

2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-1342.41: Life expectancy at birth in African countries, 2005-2015 ........................................................ 2-1422.42: Projected life expectancy at birth in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040 ................ 2-1442.43: Crude mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015............................................................ 2-1442.44: Percentage distribution of age at death by region, 2004 ........................................................ 2-1452.45: Percentage distribution of cause of death by region, 2004 ..................................................... 2-1462.46: Projected crude death rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040........................ 2-1482.47: Child mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015 ......................................................... .... 2-1512.48: Projected child mortality rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040..................... 2-1512.49: Malaria incidence in the world, 2006 ............................................................ .......................... 2-1532.50: Annual notifications of malaria in South Africa, 1990-2007 .................................................... 2-1542.51: Number of notified TB cases in South Africa, 1995-2008 ....................................................... 2-156

2.52: Ranking of provinces by TB incidence, 2007 .......................................................... ............... 2-1562.53: HIV prevalence among adults, 2009 ............................................................ .......................... 2-1582.54: HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders in South Africa, 1990-2008 ............................... 2-1592.55: Estimated HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders by age in South Africa,

2006-2008 ............................................................... .......................................................... 2-1602.56: The waves of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa according to the ASSA2003-model,

1990-2030 ............................................................... .......................................................... 2-1612.57: Projected population age structure with and without the AIDS epidemic in

South Africa, 2025 .............................................................. ............................................... 2-1622.58: Impact of HIV/AIDS on a business ............................................................... .......................... 2-1642.59: Conceptual framework for the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector ................................ 2-1662.60: Membership of restricted and open medical schemes in South Africa, 1990-2008 ................ 2-1702.61: Trends in the number of beneficiaries, 1997-2008 ............................................................. .... 2-1712.62: Risk and medical savings accounts contributions and claims per beneficiary per

month for registered schemes, 2000-2008 .......................................................... ............... 2-1712.63: South African health expenditure, 1990-2013 ......................................................... ............... 2-1722.64: Six sectors and institutions most affected by corruption in sub-Saharan Africa and the

total sample according to the TI Global Corruption Barometer 2009 ................................. 2-1832.65: Number of reported piracy attacks, 2004-2009 ................................................................ ...... 2-1862.66: Total recorded crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................... 2-1882.67: Reported number of murder cases and murder rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to

2008/2009 .......................................................................................................... ............... 2-1882.68: Reported number of attempted murder cases and attempted murder rates in South

Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .............................................................. .......................... 2-1892.69: Reported number of sexual offence cases and sexual offence rates in South Africa,

2003/2004 to 2008/2009 .................................................................................................. 2-1902.70: Reported number of violent robbery cases and violent robbery rates in South Africa,

1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ................................................................................................... 2-1902.71: The trio crimes in South Africa, 2002/2003 to 2008/2009 ..................................................... 2-1912.72: Reported number of violent assault cases and violent assault rates in South Africa,

1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .............................................................. ..................................... 2-1912.73: Property-related crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................. 2-1922.74: Ranking of provinces by commercial crime rates, 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 ....................... 2-1932.75: Attacks and murders on farms and smallholdings, 1991 to 2006/2007 .................................. 2-1952.76: Number of cases to court, withdrawn, prosecuted and convicted, 1996-2008/2009 .............. 2-1952.77: Origin of mobile students, 2007 ......................................................... ..................................... 2-2152.78: Number of learners enrolled in primary education and the potential primary school-age

population, 2000-2008....................................................................................................... 2-2212.79: Number of learners enrolled in primary education by grade and the potential primary

school-age population, 2008 ................................................................... .......................... 2-2212.80: Number of learners enrolled in secondary education and the potential secondary

school-age population, 2000-2008 .................................................................. .................. 2-223


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2.81: Number of learners enrolled in secondary education by grade and the potentialsecondary school-age population, 2008 ............................................................. ............... 2-223

2.82: Number of grade 12 learners enrolled vs the potential grade 12 population, 2000-2009 ....... 2-2242.83: Throughput of learners from grade 10 to grade 12 ............................................................. .... 2-2242.84: Number of grade 12 learners enrolled and writing exam, 2000-2009 ..................................... 2-2242.85: Number of grade 12 learners writing matric exam, passing matric and pass rate,

2000-2009 ............................................................... .......................................................... 2-2252.86: Number of grade 12 learners passing matric, passing with endorsement and

endorsement rate, 2000-2009 ....................................................................................... .... 2-2262.87: Enrolment by gender at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008 ................................ 2-2312.88: Enrolment by race at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008 .................................... 2-2312.89: Number of students enrolled at public higher education institutions by major field of

study, 2001-2008 ................................................................................................................ 2-2322.90: Number of graduates/diplomates at public higher education institutions by major

field of study, 2001-2008 .............................................................. ..................................... 2-2322.91: Tertiary throughput rate, first-year class of 2002 ................................................................ .... 2-2332.92: Schematic presentation of the South African 18-24 year-old cohort in need of

post-school education, 2007 ......................................................... ..................................... 2-235

Chapter 3: The Political Environment

Figure 3.1: Export performance by key destination ........................................................ ............................ 3-42

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment

Figure 4.1: The technology S-curve .......................................................... ................................................... 4-74.2: The curve of growth for a given technology............................................................. ................... 4-84.3: Technological substitutions as shown by multiple curves of growth ........................................... 4-84.4: Share of world wealth by type of country illustrating the role of human resources

and thus innovation in contributing to wealth ........................................................................ 4-94.5: The relationship between productivity and national wealth for selected countries, 2006 ........ 4-104.6: The dependence of wealth on technology ............................................................... ................. 4-104.7: The dependence of living standards on technology ........................................................... ...... 4-104.8: The importance of national education in applying technology for competitive advantage ........ 4-114.9: Links between technology, economic growth and human development ................................... 4-134.10: Forces that affect competition ........................................................... ....................................... 4-144.11 Technology management ....................................................... .................................................. 4-154.12: The technology life cycle ......................................................... ................................................. 4-174.13: The effect of technological transformations on the world population ........................................ 4-184.14: Minimum integrated circuit line size (in production), actual and forecast ................................. 4-234.15: Growth in telephone lines and cellular phone subscribers worldwide ...................................... 4-264.16: The growth of the Internet in number of hosts ......................................................... ................. 4-294.17: Telephone penetration in Africa per 100 people...................................................... ................. 4-334.18: Africa telecoms services and infrastructure markets analysis and forecasts ......................... 4-334.19: Global plantings of genetically modified crops, 1995-2009 and trend ...................................... 4-40

4.20: Worldwide spending on nanotechnology, 2004-2010 ......................................................... ...... 4-474.21: Global clean-energy projected growth, 2008-2018............................................................. ...... 4-504.22: Forecast of world traffic volumes ....................................................... ....................................... 4-564.23: R&D per capita as a function of GDP per capita (PPP) for 51 selected countries ................... 4-624.24: The trend in R&D expenditure, South Africa ........................................................... ................. 4-634.25: Royalty payments to and receipts from overseas countries by South Africa ............................ 4-654.26: Distribution of R&D expenditure by broad discipline in South Africa for 2004/5

2005/6 and 2006/7 ....................................................................... ....................................... 4-654.27: R&D workforce in South Africa by race and gender, 2007 .......................... ............................ 4-684.28: Overview of the national governments Sc ience and Technology System ............................... 4-73


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Chapter 5: The Natural Environment

Figure 5.1: The trend in arable land used globally, 1700-1990 ............................................................ ........ 5-75.2: Land use for field crop and horticultural production in Africa, 1961-2008 ................................. 5-115.3: Yields for the major field crops in Africa, 1961-2008 .......................................................... ...... 5-115.4: Total and per capita agricultural production in Africa, 1964-2006 ............................................ 5-11

5.5: Index of per capita agricultural production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ............................... 5-115.6: Index of per capita food production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ......................................... 5-115.7: Index of per capita cereal production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ....................................... 5-125.8: Africas food imports and exports, 1961-2006 .......................................................................... 5-125.9: Africas net imports ofwheat and maize, 1961-2006 .......................................................... ...... 5-125.10: Africas net imports of processed field crops, 1961-2006 ......................................................... 5-125.11: Africas net imports of meat, 1961-2006 ....................................................... ............................ 5-135.12: Africas net imports ofselected high value agricultural products, 1961-2006 ........................... 5-135.13: Real gross value of field crops .......................................................... ....................................... 5-175.14: Real gross value of animal products ............................................................ ............................ 5-175.15: Real gross income of the agricultural sector ........................................................... ................. 5-175.16: Real intermediate input expenditure ............................................................. ............................ 5-185.17 Real gross value added of the agricultural sector .............................................................. ...... 5-185.18: Real net farming income ......................................................... ................................................. 5-18

5.19: Real agricultural debt .............................................................. ................................................. 5-195.20: Number of undernourished people in the major developing regions, 2004/06 and 2009 ......... 5-205.21: Low-income food-deficit countries, Nov 2006.......................................................... ................. 5-205.22: Distribution of the worlds grasslands ....................................................................................... 5-305.23: Designated functions of forests, 2010 .......................................................... ............................ 5-325.24: Projected global freshwater stress and scarcity, 1990-2050 .................................................... 5-415.25: Freshwater stress and scarcity in Africa, 2025 ........................................................ ................. 5-425.26: Global annual freshwater withdrawals by sector, 1900-2025 ................................................... 5-435.27: Water consumption in South Africa by sector, 2000 ........................................................... ...... 5-495.28: Global fish production, 1950-2009 ............................................................... ............................ 5-605.29: Ten leading countries in marine and freshwater fisheries production, 2008 ............................. 5-615.30: Ten leading countries in aquaculture production, 2008 ............................................................ 5-635.31: Annual demersal and pelagic fishery catches in South African coastal waters,

1990-2008 ............................................................... ............................................................ 5-675.32: Annual rock lobster catches in South African coastal waters, 1965-2008 ................................ 5-685.33: Aquaculture production in South Africa, 1996-2008 ........................................................... ...... 5-695.34: Economic growth in key regions, 2001-2015........................................................... ................. 5-755.35: World economic growth trends, 1998-2011 ............................................................. ................. 7-755.36: Growth rates in world trade in goods and services, year-on-year and

quarter-on-quarter, 2002-2010 ............................................................................................ 5-765.37 Composite leading indicator for key economies, 2006-2010 .................................................... 5-765.38: Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, 2006-2010...................................... ......... 5-765.39: Global steel production 2007-2010 .............................................................. ............................ 5-775.40: Unemployment rates in the industrialised countries, 2006-2010 .............................................. 5-775.41: Government structural fiscal deficits as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 ................................. 5-785.42: Gross government debt as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 .................................................... 5-785.43: Commodity prices, recovery after the 2009 crash, 2005-2011 ................................................. 5-78

5.44: Economists All Metals Index, US$ terms, base indexed, Oct 2001 to Aug 2010 ..................... 5-785.45: Worlds urbanised population, 1950-2050 ............................................................... ................. 5-795.46: Chinas urban population, 2005 and 2025 ............................................................... ................. 5-795.47: Chinas share of global commodity demand............................................................................. 5-795.48: World investment trends, gross fixed capital formation as percentage of GDP,

1990-2011 ............................................................... ............................................................ 5-795.49: Large-scale non-ferrous global exploration, 1991-2009 ........................................................... 5-805.50: PWC survey of top 40 mining companies, 2003, 2009 ............................................................. 5-815.51: Capital investment by top 40 mining companies by commodity, 2008-2009 ............................ 5-815.52: Industry value creation in South Africa and the world, 2001-2008, real compound

annual growth rate percentages .............................................................. ............................ 5-825.53: Global in situ mineral resource holders, US$ value ............................................................ ...... 5-835.54: Projected mineral weighted production of the South African mining sector, 2010-2020 ........... 5-84

5.55: South African reserves of key minerals, 2008 ......................................................... ................. 5-845.56: Competitiveness drivers of South Africas mining sector.......................................................... 5-85


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5.57: income and expenditure of the SA mining industry, 2009 ........................................................ 5-875.58: GDP per sector, 1993-2009 .............................................................. ....................................... 5-885.59: World primary energy consumption, 1999-2009 ................................................................ ....... 5-925.60: World energy intensity by region, reference case scenario, 2007-2035 ................................... 5-935.61: World energy-related CO2 emissions by region, 2007-2035 .................................................... 5-935.62: Primary energy consumption in South Africa, 2009 ........................................................... ...... 5-93

` 5.63: The Low Carbon Competitiveness Index ................................................................ ................. 5-945.64: Current (2009) proved oil reserves, OPEC and non-OPEC ..................................................... 5-965.65: South African oil production and consumption, 1988-2008 ...................................................... 5-965.66: World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewables in the context of all

other sources of energy, 2007 to 2035 ............................................................... ............... 5-1015.67: Renewable energys share ofglobal final energy consumption, 2008 .................................... 5-1035.68: World electricity generating capacity by source, 2008 ........................................................... 5-1035.69: Projected global growth in the clean energy industry, 2009-2019 .......................................... 5-1035.70: South Africas electricity capacity and demand outlook, 2006-2026 ....................................... 5-1085.71: Economic cost of outages in selected countries ................................................................ ..... 5-1095.72: Forecast liquid fuels supply shortfall for South Africa, 2008-2030 .......................................... 5-1095.73 Sector contribution to total GHG emissions, 2000 .............................................................. .... 5-1115.74: Sectoral contribution to fuel combustion emissions ............................................................ .... 5-1115.75: Scope 1 & 2 emissions by company: CDP 2009 vs CDP6 (2008), in tonnes of CO2-eq ........ 5-113

5.76: Linking biodiversity to human well-being ................................................................ ................ 5-1165.78: The Living Planet Index, terrestrial, marine and freshwater LPIs, 1970-2005 ........................ 5-1195.79: The Red List Index for corals, birds, mammals and amphibians, 1980-2010 ......................... 5-1205.80: Disability-adjusted life years attributed to environmental health risks .................................... 5-1365.81: Municipal waste per person, kg per capita for 2007, or latest available year ......................... 5-1385.82: Top ten marine debris items globally (1989-2007 combined) ............................................... 5-1475.83: Quantities of oil spilled, 1970 to 2009 .......................................................... .......................... 5-1485.84: Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases for three reference

scenarios, 2000-2100 ......................................................... ............................................... 5-1535.85: Sectoral contributions to GHG emissions in South Africa ...................................................... 5-1535.86: Waste hierarchy ........................................................... .......................................................... 5-1595.87: Process to be followed for industry waste management plans ............................................... 5-1605.88: The monthly average carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii ....... 5-1735.89: Variations of the earths surface temperature, 1000-2100 ................................................. .... 5-1925.90: Drivers of environmental change ....................................................... ..................................... 5-2085.91: Four scenarios of South Africas future environment.......................................................... .... 5-2095.92: The environmental implications of the four scenarios ........................................................ .... 5-210

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment

Figure 6.1: Foreign direct investment as share of GDP, 1995 and 2007 ...................................................... 6-96.2: Foreign direct investment by income group, 1995 and 2008 .................................................... 6-116.3: G-7 debt is close to post-war highs .............................................................. ............................ 6-156.4: Gross world product, 1950-2020 ....................................................... ....................................... 6-176.5: Gross world product per capita, 1950-2020 ............................................................ ................. 6-176.6: Share of population living on less than $1.25 per day, by selected countries .......................... 6-23

6.7: Sector share of change in real GDP, 2002-2007, % .......................................................... ...... 6-276.8: Macro-economic stability measure ............................................................... ............................ 6-276.9: Share of households in each income bracket.......................................................... ................. 6-276.10: Infrastructure financing in sub-Saharan Africa ........................................................ ................. 6-276.11: Structure of the SA economy by primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, 1960-2009 ............. 6-296.12: Government (public) debt as a percentage of GDP, 1961-2009 .............................................. 6-316.13: Prime rate, inflation rate and real prime rate ........................................................... ................. 6-336.14: Growth in total domestic credit extension and the prime rate ................................................... 6-336.15: Current account and financial account as percentage of GDP, 1970-2009 .............................. 6-336.16: Household debt and savings as percentage of disposable income, 1970-2009 ....................... 6-336.17: GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 1950-2009 ........................................................ ...... 6-356.18: Real GDP, GDP per capita and population ............................................................. ................. 6-356.19: Consumer price index inflation, 1980-June 2010 ............................................................... ...... 6-376.20: Real total and per capita disposable income ........................................................... ................. 6-39

6.21: FCE as percentage of GDP............................................................... ....................................... 6-41


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6.22: Components of FCE ................................................................ ................................................. 6-416.23: Real gross fixed capital formation, Rm and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ...................... 6-436.24: Real fixed capital stock, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ......................................................... 6-436.25: Composition of gross capital formation, 1985-2009 ........................................................... ...... 6-436.26: Foreign investment as percentage of gross capital formation, 1960-2009 ............................... 6-436.27: Real GFCF in economic infrastructure, total and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 .............. 6-456.28: Real fixed capital stock of economic infrastructure, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............... 6-456.29: Real GFCF in electricity, gas and water, total and as percentage of total GFCF, 1960-2009 .. 6-456.30: Real fixed capital stock of electricity, gas and water, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............. 6-456.31: Exports of goods and services, 1960-2009 ............................................................. ................. 6-476.32 Imports of goods and services, 1960-2009 ............................................................. ................. 6-476.33: International Trade Openness Index ............................................................ ............................ 6-476.34: Export and import prices, and terms of trade, 1960-2009 ........................................................ 6-476.35: Net financial flows as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ............................................................. 6-496.36: Net financial flows by type, 1960-2009 ......................................................... ............................ 6-496.37: South Africas current account and financial account as percentage of GDP,

1970-2009 .............................................................. ............................................................ 6-516.38: South Africas foreign debt as percentage of GDP and of exports of goods and

services, 1985-2008 ........................................................... ................................................. 6-516.39: Weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1980-2009 ....................................................... 6-53

6.40: Real weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1990-2009 ................................................ 6-536.41: Unemployment rates by population group, 2001-2010 ............................................................. 6-556.42: Employment and gross value added to the private non-agricultural formal economy,

1960-2009 ............................................................... ............................................................ 6-576.43: Number of households as percentage of all households in high-middle and high

income groups ......................................................... ............................................................ 6-636.44: Percentage of black African households in each income group ............................................... 6-636.45: Trade union density for selected countries, 1999-2008 ............................................................ 6-676.46: Average annual hours actually worked per worker ............................................................. ...... 6-676.47: Determinants of labour market flexibility ................................................................ .................. 6-696.48: Unemployment rates ............................................................... ................................................. 6-696.49: South Africas average capital-labour ratio in the non-agricultural formal private economy,

1960-2009 ..................................................... ................................................................. ...... 6-756.50: Employment intensity in the South African non-agricultural formal private economy,

1960-2009, at constant 2005 prices ........................................................................... ......... 6-756.51: Real average annual economic growth by province, 2000-2008 .............................................. 6-816.52: Provincial contribution to South Africas economy, 1995, 2002 and 2008 ................................ 6-81

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development

Figure 7.1: Reasons for reporting on sustainability ........................................................ ............................ 7-20

7.2: Vision 2050 .............................................................................................................

Business Futures 2010

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