Food Futures Kinglake 13 Oct 2010

8/4/2019 Food Futures Kinglake 13 Oct 2010

1/27

1

Envisioning Food Systemsfor resilient landscapes, lifestyles andfor resilient landscapes, lifestyles andlivelihoods in a carbon, water, energylivelihoods in a carbon, water, energy

& nutrient& nutrient--constrained worldconstrained world

A ndrew CampbellA ndrew CampbellKinglake Ranges Food Futures VisioningKinglake Ranges Food Futures Visioning

SessionSession Kinglake, 13 October 2010Kinglake, 13 October 2010www.triplehelix.com.auwww.triplehelix.com.au

Personal declarations

Farming background southFarming background south- -western Victoriawestern Victoria Family farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed sinceFamily farming in the district since 1860s, own farm managed since

19871987

450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental450ha near Cavendish: 30% farm forestry, 10% environmental

reserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambsreserves, 60% leased to a neighbour for prime lambsForestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne &Forestry & rural sociology: Creswick, Melbourne &WageningenWageningen

Forester Victorian governmentForester Victorian government Vacation work at Toolangi 1978Vacation work at Toolangi 1978

First National Landcare Facilitator 89First National Landcare Facilitator 89- -9292

Environment Australia SES 1995Environment Australia SES 1995- -20002000

CEO Land & Water Australia 2000CEO Land & Water Australia 2000- -0606


2/27

2

3

O utline1. Drivers for more sustainable food systems

Food security Climate change Water Energy Land & nutrients

2. Challenges & opportunities Technical Policy Community

4

For more info

e.g.e.g. Paddock to PlatePaddock to PlateP olicy P ropositions for Sustainable FoodP olicy P ropositions for Sustainable Food

SystemsSystems& Background P aper & Background P aper

www.triplehelix.com.au


3/27

3

5

1. Drivers for more sustainable

food systemsWorld food demand

Climate chaos

Water scarcity

Energy security

Soil, nutrients & other resource constraintsHuman health & animal welfare

The policy responses to all of the above

6

The Food System

Has a very large environmental footprint E.g. more than half total household water consumption

Is critically dependent onclimate, water, energy, land and nutrientsIs affected by constraints or perturbationsin any of these factors


4/274

Source: WBCSD & IUCN 2008; Harvard Medical School 2008

The core problem:

population & carbon emissions

7

Some people are (wrongly) trying to represent the lastdecade as indicating a cooling trend.


5/27

5

9

Water

Each calorie takes one litre of water to produce, on average

Like the Murray Darling Basin,all the worlds major foodproducing basins areeffectively closed or alreadyover-committed

Melbournes A nnual Storage Inflow GL (1913-2007)

In Victoria, last 7 years the driest 7 years since records have been kept.Inflows to Melbourne storages since 1997 35% lower than prior to 1997.


6/27

6

Climate change impact on water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin

12

Feeding the worldThe world needs to increase food production by about70% by 2050, & improve distribution

We have done this in the past, mainly throughclearing, cultivating and irrigating more land

and intensification, better varieties, more fertiliser, pesticidesetc

Climate change and oil depletion is narrowing thoseoptions, with limits to water, land, energy & nutrients

Rich consumers have major concerns about modernindustrial food systems

human health, animal welfare, environment, fair trade


7/27

7

13

But maybe we aint seen nothin yet.

14


8/27

8

Energy &nutrients

The era of abundant,cheap fossil fuels iscoming to a close

Rising oil costs =rising costs for

fertiliser, agri-chemicals, transportand food

A ustralia

15

World

Energy (2) a significant risk of a peak in conventional oil production before 2020. The risks

presented by global oil depletion deserve much more serious attention by theresearch and policy communities.

U K Energy Research Centre, An assessment of the evidence for a near-term peak in global oil production , August 2009

16

we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and wehave to prepare ourselves for that day

D r Fatih Birol, Chief Economist IE A , 3 A ugust 2009

The challenge of feeding 7 or 8 billion people while oil supplies are falling i s stupefying. Itll be even greater if

governments keep pretending that it isnt going to happen.

George Monbiot, The Guardian 16.11.09


9/27

9

17

Land & soilThe FAO recently assessed trends in land condition (measured by

net primary productivity) from 1981-2004

Land degradation is increasing in severity and extent:

>20 percent of all cultivated areas>30 percent of forests>10 percent of grasslands

1.5 billion people depend directly on land that is being degraded

Land degradation is cumulative. Limited overlap between 24% of theland surface identified as degraded now and the 15% classified in 1991,because NPP has flatlined near zero in flogged areas

http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2008/1000874/index.html


10/27

10

Water, energy, and G D P

19 f rom Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Ste ff en & Troy (200 7 )

Energy & GDP

Water & GDP

Water and energy havehistorically been closelycoupled with GDP inAustralia

Our challenge now is to radicallyreduce the energy, carbon and

water-intensity o f our economy

Climate-water-energy feedbacks

20 f rom Proust, Dovers, Foran, Newell, Ste ff en & Troy (200 7 )

Saving water often usesmore energy, and vice-versa

Efforts to moderate climateoften use more energy+/or water

E.g. coal-fired power stationswith CCS will be 25-33%more water-intensive

Using more fossil energyexacerbates climate chaos


11/27

11

W here does Business as Usual take us?

A food system less capable of delivering healthy, affordable foodreliably in a variable climate

Murrindindi among the highest levels of food insecurity in Victoria> 11% of people run out of food, unable to afford more (before fires)

Intensifying pressure on the resource base

Greater exposure & vulnerability to rising energy & nutrientprices

Intensifying competition for rural land & water

Increasing greenhouse gas emissions

Ever-declining water security and energy security

Exacerbating pressures on rural communities21

2. Technical challenges & opportunities1. To decouple economic growth from carbon emissions

2. To increase water productivity,decoupling the every calorie = 1 litre relationship

3. To increase energy productivity more food energy out per unit of energy in while shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy

4. To develop more sustainable food systems while conserving biodiversity and improving landscape amenity, soil health,

animal welfare & human health

5. To achieve all of the above simultaneously!22


12/27

12

23

The integration imperativeManaging whole landscapes

- where nature meets culture (Schama)

- landscapes are socially constructed

- beyond ecological apartheid

- NRM means people management- engage values, perceptions, aspirations, behaviour

Integration

-across issues e.g climate, energy, food & water -across scales fixing the Federation-across the triple helix

-landscapes, lifestyles & livelihoods

24

Types of Response

We need to beoperating in each of these quadrants

D evelop researchpartnerships +/or link into existingcollaborations

Source: FFI CRC EverCrop


13/27

13

The Cynefin knowledge framework*Climate change spans all of these domains

If temp increase > 2C, thendisorder & chaos will reign

The challenge is to handle thenecessary range of simultaneous responses

to work in all of these domainsat once

to develop a system-wideperspective

& the knowledge systems andlearning strategies to underpinthat perspective

* David Snowden & Mary Boone (200 7 )Leader's Framework f or Decision Making H arvard Business Review

26

W e need a third agricultural revolution what might it look like?

Closed loop farming systems (water, energy, nutrients,carbon)

Better understanding of soil carbon & microbial activity

Radically reducing waste in all parts of the food chain

Farming systems producing renewable bioenergy (2 nd

generation)

Smart metering, sensing, telemetry, robotics, guidance

Urban food production, recycling waste streams & urbanwater

New/old food marketing systems


14/27

14

A two-tiered food system?

Potential divergence of the food system into two tiers:1. High volume, undifferentiated commodities on low margins

for world market prices farmers price takers

2. More differentiated, highly specified produce for morediscerning markets, emphasising both functional and non-functional brand attributes tailored to customer demands

The obvious option for Kinglake is the second one

This means high levels of quality assurance, distinctiveregional branding strategies, close contact withcustomers, local value adding where possible.

27

28

Cities suck in water, energyand nutrients from their hinterland

Much of which becomeswaste

Replumbing, rewiring andrestumping is required on amassive scale

Cities also suck in people,and are part of the solution,not the problem

Peri-urban areas likeKinglake Ranges shouldsee the city as a major allyand opportunity


15/27

15

29

nnovat on esearcO pportunities

U rban food production (shorter supply chains)

Forensic mapping of stocks and flows of water, energy, nutrientsand biomass in urban and peri-urban areas to identifyopportunities for use in food production

Integrate the above 2 points into Food Sensitive U rban Design

Opportunities from waste (e.g. algal biodiesel)

Spatial optimisation for food, water, carbon & energy from aregional planning perspective

Integrated farming of food, energy (biofuels & bioenergy)& carbon site and landscape scale

3 . Policy challenges & opportunities time for new alliances & perspectives

Healthy farms, healthylandscapes, healthy soils,healthy food, healthy people &healthy communities areinterconnected

We are not used to seeing thefarming system, the energysystem or the water system, or planning & urban design for thatmatter, as connected to thehealth system

This needs to chan eSource: Tyrchniewicz and McDonald (200 7 )


16/27

16

31

Perspectives from the top of the A PSTerry Moran, Institute of Public A dministration, 15 July 2009:

Reflecting on the challenges of public sector reform:

By and large, I believe the public service gives good advice on incremental policy improvement. Where we fall down is in long-term, transformational thinking; the big picture stuff. We are still more reactive than proactive;more inward than outward looking. We are allergic to risk, sometimesinfected by a culture of timidity.

The APS still generates too much policy within single departments and agencies to address challenges that span a range of departments and agencies We are not good at recruiting creative thinkers.

http://www.dpmc.gov.au/media/speech_200 9 _07 _1 5 .cf m

32

A food policy agenda

Propositions from Campbell (2009) Paddock to Plate (published by the ACF & also at www.triplehelix.com.au )

http://www.acfonline.org.au/articles/news.asp?news_id=2401


17/27

17

33

A food policy agenda (2)


34

A food policy agenda (3)A food policy agenda (3)



18/27

18

35

A food policy agenda (4)


36

A food policy agenda (5)A food policy agenda (5)



19/27

19

Implications for communities

P RO FO UND S O CIA L CH A LLENGES:

To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of To avoid scaring people, or perceptions of blameblame

To bring people along on a challengingTo bring people along on a challenging

journey journeyTo build understanding, skills and capacityTo build understanding, skills and capacity

To honour the past, while inventing a newTo honour the past, while inventing a newfuturefuture

37

The community imperativeRapid, often surprising, on-going environmental change willchallenge governments and industries, and stress communities

Many responses (proactive and reactive) will need to be designedand/or interpreted at regional and local levels. Successfulimplementation depends on community support.

We need environmentally literate and capable bodies at this scale,with strong community support and involving community leaders,that bridge government and community, public and private

Policy convergence in climate, energy, water and food systemsmandates integrated planning & delivery


20/27

20

Building resilienceWhat determines resilience, in general?*

Diversity: biological, economic (e.g. energy sources),social

Modularity (connectedness, engagement)Tightness of feedbacksOpenness immigration, inflows, outflowsReserves and other reservoirs (e.g. seedbanks,nutrient pools, soil moisture, memory, knowledge)

Overlapping institutionsPolycentric (distributed) governance & leadership

Are any of these changing? Are any limiting?39 * Source: Brian Walker http://www.australia21.org.au/buildingAustraliasResilience-papers.htm

Thoughts on governance

Resilience theory and the principle of subsidiarityunderline the need for local leadership andgovernance structures formal and informal

Highly centralised models will always struggle in

dynamic, complex and chaotic situations

This also applies for business models, yet innovativenew food systems will need capital and critical mass

Co-operatives offer a good option for scaling up, for value-adding and for marketing

40


21/27

21

41

Land U se Planning & DesignVic already post-agricultural in some regions (Neil Barr)

We have some elements of a new paradigm Ecoservices etc Carbon offsets market (Greenfleet et al)

New corporate players e.g. VicSuper, energy companies

And we know areas that need to expand

Water conservation Habitat restoration and reconnection

Residential (600,000 new homes just for Melb)

Renewable energy (wind, solar, biomass, biogas)

42

How can this all fit at a landscape and regionalscale?

The landscape needs to be re-plumbed, re-wired and re-clothed

We need new regional planning approaches that:

are robust under a range of climate change & demographicscenarios

build in resilience thinking(e.g. improve habitat connectivity & buffering, protect refugia)

accommodate carbon pollution mitigation options(energy, transport, food)

safeguard productive soil and allow for increased food production facilitate recycling of water, nutrients and energy

Integrating and/or replacing regional catchment strategiesand local government planning, zoning,rating and development approval processes


22/27

22

A new peri-urban paradigm?

Thoughts from a lay perspective

How to transform McMansion suburbs?

Protecting good soils without constraining the ability of ageing farmers to cash out?

Reconciling private space, property rights & individuality

with public goals of food, water, energy, biodiversity,amenity, fire

Learning from Europe - live in village, commute to farm?

44


23/27

23

45

46


24/27

24

47

48


25/27

25

49

50


26/27

26

51

52

Take home messagesWe (Kinglake especially!) are living through a period of unprecedented environmental change, that is likely tointensify this is not a blipBusiness as usual is not a viable trajectoryNew alliances are needed across the health, food andfarming systems, and along the food value chainPeri-urban areas with good soils and reliable water are astrategic asset of national significance

Kinglake can pilot new approaches to food in a drying climateBuilding more resilient landscapes, lifestyles and livelihoodsThis is about innovation & leadership


27/27

27

53

For more infoFor more info

e.g. Paddock to PlatePolicy Propositions f or Sustainable Food Systems

www.triplehelix.com.au

Food Futures Kinglake 13 Oct 2010

Documents

Transcript of Food Futures Kinglake 13 Oct 2010