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2010+Regional FuturesDr Carlo Kopp

The scale and rate of change instrategic positioning observed acrossthe region over the last decade has fewprecedents. While regional air forcesare aggressively modernising, they arealso restructuring, and introducingassets capable of long range powerprojection. This second portion of our‘2010+ Futures’ analysis explores thekind of region Australia will facewithin the next decade.

The PLA-AF is acquiring the latest Russian guided weapons for itsSukhoi fleet. These include the KAB-500/1500 precision guidedbombs, the Kh-59M stand-off missile, and the supersonic Kh-31.The latter missile is available in anti-radiation, anti-shipping andanti-AWACS variants.

There is ongoing speculation that the PLA-N air arm will soon acquire some variant of the Su-32MF/FN Fullback, the largest derivative to date of the Flanker family.Designed to fill a similar niche to the F-111, this aircraft carries the Leninets B004 phased array radar with similar capabilities to the APQ-164 in the US B-1Bbomber (Sukhoi).

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India has become without doubt thetechnological trendsetter in Asia, reflectingits good quality science and engineeringeducational base and its ongoing growth ininformation technology industries. Mostfrequently, India has been the first tocanvass purchases or acquire the latestRussian and, more recently, Israeli militarytechnology. It is clear that India sees a keyaim in becoming the technological leader inAsian military capabilities, reflected in aseries of joint development programslaunched with the Russians - theBrahMos/Yakhont missile, the KS-172missile and the Su-30MKI Flanker beingthe leading examples.India is now well into its plannedproduction build of 150 or moreHAL/Irkut/Sukhoi Su-30MKI Flankers, thisbeing to date the most advanced variantseen with a BARS/N-011M phased arrayradar, thrust vectoring engines, glasscockpit and hybrid Russian/EU/Indianavionic suite. Indian sources claim theIsraeli Elta 8222 jammer and Popeyemissile, variants of upgrades being nowapplied to the F-111s, are to be integratedon these Sukhois. Including Russiansupplied aircraft, the planned total is for 180airframes. These aircraft are in manyrespects more advanced than the US AirForce fleet of around 200 F-15Es.India retains a large legacy fleet of Russian-designed and largely licence-built fighters,cited at 250 MiG-21FL/21bis Fishbed, 100MiG-27M and 75 MiG-23BN/MF Flogger,supplemented by about 60 MiG-29Fulcrums, a fleet of 35 Mirage 2000H, andremaining BAC Jaguars. While thedomestic LCA lightweight fighter presentsa viable replacement for the MiG-21 andJaguar, the other types are more demandingto replace. The prospects are good thatfurther Sukhois will be acquired asreplacements, funding permitting.India recently took delivery of its first sixIlyushin Il-78MKI Midas tankers, equippedwith three-point UPAZ pod refuellingsystems. It is likely that further tankers willbe acquired as budget becomes available.Also due for delivery later this decade willbe India’s first Beriev/Elta A-50I PhalconAEW&C aircraft, based on the same L-band Elta phased array radar first bid in thisregion for Australia’s Wedgetailrequirement. The buy of the Israeli GreenPine ballistic missile defence radarsillustrates Israel’s growing relationship withIndia as a defence supplier.The Indian Navy has been no less ambitiousin its planning for the future. The legacyfleet of Soviet supplied Tupolev Tu-142MBear F Long Range Maritime Patrol aircraftis in the process of undergoing a majoravionic upgrade, although recent reportswould indicate that the originally planned

Russian Leninets ‘Sea Dragon/Sea Snake’package has been dropped in favour of anIsraeli equivalent. The original plan was toenlarge the Bear F fleet concurrently withRussian stock, and lease interim maritimestrike Tupolev Tu-22M-3 Backfire Caircraft. How this upgrade materialises nowis unclear.The Navy plan for a land based patrol andstrike capability upgrade is paralleled by theacquisition of the former SovietCTOL/skijump carrier Gorshkov, sold byRussia for the cost of a refit as part of apackage including an air wing of navalisedMiG-29K Fulcrum fighters.India has been very active in building up itsdomestic technology base, pursuing co-development with Russia of the 3M55/Kh-61 Yakhont/BrahMos supersonic 160nautical mile range cruise missile, and morerecently negotiating a similar deal for theNovator KS-172 long range air to airmissile, marketed by the Russians as an‘anti-AWACS’ weapon. These deals parallelbuys of the 3M-54E/E1 Alfa, a ‘Tomahawk-like’ anti-ship missile with 160 nauticalmile range. The land attack 3M-14E variant

recently entered production in Russia. Otherbuys reported include the KAB-500/1500series EO/laser precision guided bombs.By 2010 India will have much of this forcestructure upgrade in place, providing it witha capability to project air and missile powerto distances between 1,000 and 4,500nautical miles.To date, India’s force structure build up hasbeen modelled in a large part on the types ofcapabilities now operated by the US, and itis reasonable to expect that India willexploit its IT industry base to develop arobust networking capability over the nextdecade, leveraging the established Russiantechnology base. Russia has activelymarketed the APD-518 and TKS-2/R-098(Tipovyi Kompleks Svyazi) digitaldatalinks for the Sukhoi fighters.India will remain the benchmark in Asia fortechnological and operational capabilities.Earlier this year during the Cope Indiaexercise, US Air Force F-15Cs were pittedagainst Indian Su-30MKs, and reportsindicate that the Sukhois more than oftenprevailed in engagements.

Indian Air Force andNaval Air Arm

India has recently signed for the A-50I, a derivative of the Beriev A-50U/E, but equipped with the Israeli EltaL-band phased array previously bid for Australia’s Wedgetail program (Beriev).

India is now manufacturing the operational configuration of the Su-30MKI, in addition to the earlier Su-30K itacquired from Irkut. In the recent Cope India exercise, this aircraft outperformed the F-15C repeatedly in longrange engagements (IAF, US Air Force).

The ongoing ‘tit-for-tat’ arms race betweenChina and India has seen the PLA pursue aneven more ambitious program than that ofIndia, fed by China’s robust trade surplus inmanufactured goods. While China hastypically opted for less ambitious choices intechnology it has compensated for this inacquiring often much larger numbers.China also operates a large legacy fleet ofSoviet-era fighter designs, largelydomestically built as licenced or reverseengineered and evolved copies. Citednumbers include over 2500 J-6 Farmer(MiG-19), 600 J-7 Fishbed (MiG-21) andseveral hundred domestic derivativeChengdu/Shenyang Q-5/J-5s, and larger J-8A/B interceptors. These aircraft areintended to be largely replaced over comingdecades with a hi-lo mix of licenced andRussian-built Su-27SK/J-11, Su-30MKKand the indigenous ‘Lavi/Eurocanard-like’delta canard J-10 lightweight fighters. Development of the J-10 commenced in1988, with the first prototype flying in1996, and production planned to commencenext year. The J-10 occupies the same nicheas the F-16C/D/E/F and the Rafale, beingsmaller than the F/A-18C/D andEurofighter. It is to replace the J-6, Q-5 andJ-7 in frontline combat regiments.Early J-10 models are powered by theRussian AL-31F common to the Su-27/30,with Chinese sources claiming theindigenous WS-10 fan will be introducedlater. The design is claimed to use aquadruplex digital fly-by-wire controlsystem, a glass cockpit similar in layout to

the Gripen is employed, and a HMS isexpected to be used. Chinese sources claimthe Phazotron Zhuk series and indigenousJL-10A to be the likely candidate radars forproduction.The largest component of the tactical fighterfleet modernisation is the licence build of200 Sukhoi/KNAAPO Su-27SK/J-11fighters, supplementing earlier buys ofdozens of Russian built Su-27SK. Therecent deliveries of several dozen Su-30MKK, a less ambitious KNAAPOequivalent to India’s Su-30MKI, provide anall-weather strike capability to the Sukhoifleet. The Russian R-77 AMRAAManalogue, indigenous PL-12, based on R-77technology have been acquired, as haveRussian Kh-59M series stand-off missiles,Kh-31 anti-radiation/anti-shipping missilesand KAB-500/1500 series precision guidedbombs.China’s legacy fleet of relatively new H-6Badgers, reverse engineered from theSoviet Tu-16 series, remain in service asstrategic strike platforms, with somefraction of the fleet since converted into H-6U aerial refuelling tankers. Exact Badgernumbers are unknown, but up to 150 areclaimed to be in use with the 8th (mergedwith the 48th), 10th, 36th Bomber Divisionsas the principal units flying the H-6A/E/H/U Badgers, and the 2nd BomberDivision flying the H-6D/DU.The most recent H-6 variant identified isdesignated the H-6H which has all gunsremoved, the dorsal station faired over andthe ventral station replaced with a largebulged radome, retaining two missilepylons. It has recently been joined bysimilar variant, which adds two morepylons outboard and removes the aftgunner’s blisters to cut drag. The latter H-6H variant has been identified as a ‘cruisemissile carrier’ but the cruise missile typehas yet to be disclosed - US sources claim25 airframe rebuilds or new builds wereplanned. Footage from the 2002 ZhuhaiAirshow AVIC I promotional video shows aH-6H carrying four missiles which appearto be the Kh-55/65SE - or dummy payloadsof similar shape.

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People’s Liberation Army -Air Force and Navy

The Chengdu J-10 is similar in concept to theEurocanard fighters and cancelled Lavi. It is an agilemultirole fighter, intended to be used in a Hi-Lo mixwith the larger Su-27/30 fighters (China Defence News).

The Tupolev Backfire C is now on the PLA-AF’sshopping list as a replacement for the older variantsof the H-6 Badger. The last Backfires were built in1993, and the fleet has accrued little flying timesince then (RuAF).

Sukhoi’s Su-32MF/FN series strike aircraft is themost radical development of the Flanker, andprovides capabilities similar to the F-111, includinga terrain following radar capability. The aircraftmay be acquired by the PLA-N air arm for a rangeof maritime roles (Author).

It is not surprising that the H-6 is the basisof China’s first tanker – as the Badger isavailable cheaply and is large enough to beuseful. With around 167,300lb (75,800kg)MTOW, 82,000lb (37,150kg) BEW, and aninternal fuel payload of about 85,000lb(38600kg) using a bomb bay tank tosupplant a 20,000lb (9,000kg) internalbomb payload, the Badger makes for areasonable tanker in the size class of the HPVictor K.2. With a total fuel uplift atMTOW about one half of a KC-135E/R,each Badger in practical terms canadequately support only two fighters. TheH-6U Badger conversion is based on a1980s UK FRL cooperative effort.China has had an ongoing interest since the1990s in acquiring four-engine Ilyushin Il-78 Midas tankers, and recent reports ofnegotiations with Rosoboronexport andTashkent based TAPO to acquire six Il-78MKKs and thirty Il-76MDs should betaken seriously. With India’s recent deliveryof Il-78MKI tankers, we can expect toobserve a repeat pattern of tit-for-tat ordersas seen in the fighter and missiles game.China has had an active domestic programto develop air/land/sea launched cruisemissiles for some time. In terms of landattack cruise missiles five immediateoptions exist - the indigenous HN-1, HN-2and HN-3 credited by Russian sources with325NMI (600km), 800NMI (1,500km) and1,350NMI (2,500km) range carrying‘special’ payloads or less with a 900lb(400kg) class conventional payload, acloned Tomahawk widely reported (thismay be the HN-3) and a variant of the3,300lb (1,500kg) class Raduga Kh-65SEcruise missile. The latter is based on the Kh-55/RKV-500 (AS-15 Kent) carried byRussian Bear/Blackjack and is anequivalent to the Boeing AGM-86B ALCM.There are reports claiming that a design datapackage, and tooling for the Kh-65SE wereexported to the PRC recently. All of thesemissiles are claimed to use Tercom/inertialguidance like the US AGM-86 and BGM-109 series.The July, 2000 collapse of China’s plan toacquire the Beriev A-50I AWACS with theIsraeli Elta Phalcon phased array radar wasa significant setback for the PLA-AF, whohad hoped to once and for all gain the highground in the regional ISR game. The L-band Phalcon was the basis of the Elta bidfor the RAAF Wedgetail program and is ageneration ahead of Japan’s E-767 andTaiwan’s E-2T. US pressure on Israel killedthe deal, upon which reports emerged thatthe Russian Beriev A-50U or A-50E variant,equipped with the Schmel seriesmechanically steered array, was to bepurchased. To date no deliveries haveoccurred, and the status of the program isunclear - it is expected that India’s orderearlier this year for the same A-50I systemwill result in a ‘tit-for-tat’ commitment bythe PLA-AF for A-50E to pre-empt India.An A-50E/I aircraft has been photographedrepeatedly.

Cruise missiles are part of a broader agendato strengthen strategic capabilities - at thisyear’s 10th PLA-AF internal CommunistParty Congress a public announcement wasmade detailing changes in doctrine, a statedintention to a develop a ‘long rangestrategic air force’, and an intent to acquirethe Tupolev Tu-22M3 Backfire C bomber.The Backfire C with twice the payload andtwice the range of Australia’s F-111, withsimilar high speed performance, representsthe single strategically most potent asset toenter the regional air power debate. Giventhe nature of the announcement, there isevery reason to believe that the PLA-AFwill acquire this aircraft, most likelyrefurbished Russian AF stock. Unlike newbuild Sukhoi Su-32MF/34 Fullback tacticalstrike aircraft which have been argued to bethe candidate Badger replacement, theBackfire C built between 1983 and 1993can be delivered much faster and cheaper,and requires no supporting tankers to strikeacross a footprint between Diego Garcia,the Gascoyne to Darwin arc, and Guam.

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China’s PLA-AF is pursuing the most aggressive modernisation and restructuring in its history. Recent reportsindicate a doctrinal shift to a ‘strategic air force’ model, including an intent to acquire Russian Tu-22M3Backfire bombers. Flown from accessible basing in Myanmar and Hainan Island, the aircraft offers the PLA-AFunprecedented regional coverage (Author/UNSW).

The current trend across the wider region is toincrease the reach of strike forces, a trend which runsopposite to current thinking in Canberra. This chartcompares the internal fuel loads of representativeaircraft types (Author).

The latest additionto the IAFinventory are thefirst batch ofIlyushin Il-78MKIMidas tankers,each equippedwith three UPAZhose/drogue pods(IAF).

Acquisition of Backfires would likely seeremaining late build Badgers converted intofurther H-6U tankers.The PLA-AF’s ambitious plans have beenparalleled by aggressive modernisation ofthe PLA-N naval air arm. The PLA-N isnow replacing its legacy H-5 Beagles andother indigenous types with several dozenKNAAPO Su-30MK2, a PLA-N specificvariant of the Su-30MKK. The indigenousFH-7 maritime strike fighter, an analogue insize and role to the maritime PanaviaTornado ISD variants, equips only oneregiment and is likely to remain at existingnumbers. Current planning sees the Su-30MK2 armed with a unique anti-shippingvariant of the Kh-59 missile, the Kh-59MK,and anti-shipping variants of the Kh-31. It isnot known whether the air launched variantsof the Kh-41 Moskit/Sunburn and 3M-54Ewill be acquired, these being carried bywarships and submarines respectively.There has been some speculation that the

PLA-N may order a variant of the SukhoiSu-32 Fullback, choices being the ‘generic’multi-role Su-32MF or the specialisedmaritime strike and Anti-SubmarineWarfare capable Su-32FN. The PLA-N’s airarm is tasked with littoral sea control in theheavily contested Taiwan Straits and SouthChina Sea, an environment where striketasked Badgers and maritime patrol aircraftare not survivable as neither have theperformance to evade modern fighters, andboth must close with targets to engage. Weshould not be surprised if the Su-32 series isordered as a follow-on to the Su-30MK2.China faces considerable challenges overthe next decade in recruiting and trainingthe required pool of aircrew to operate thelarge number of modern aircraft it isacquiring. The 10th PLA-AF internalCommunist Party Congress report detailsthe difficulties experienced over the last 12months in shifting to a ‘combat oriented’training regime, these including much

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Perhaps the most important addition to regionalarsenals will be ‘anti-AWACS’ missiles, designed tokill or shut down opposing AEW&C aircraft. China isacquiring a range of Kh-31 subtypes, while India isreported to be negotiating co-development of a KS-172variant (Author).

South East Asia

The Backfire C was to be upgraded to Tu-22M4 and then Tu-22M5 configuration via extensive avionics andweapons upgrades. A wide range of current Russian precision guided weapons could be carried (Author).

increased accident rates. It is evidently onlya matter of time before the PLA-AF andPLA-N develop a modern training regimeand doctrine, emulating Western practices.It is significant that the scale and pace ofChina’s force structure rebuild is driving theregional arms race in air power and missiletechnology. As China increases its ability toproject power across the region, smallernations will respond by further investmentin AEW&C, modern fighters, andsupporting capabilities. By 2020 the AsiaPacific will have the largest collective fleetof modern and newly built fighter aircraftworldwide.

The most capable air force in the nearerregion is that of Singapore. The RSAF hasbeen the trendsetter in South East Asia,historically acquiring most of its hardwarefrom the United States.Singapore was the first regional nation tofield an AEW&C capability, in its fleet offour Grumman E-2C Hawkeye aircraft.More recently, the RSAF acquired four KC-135R Pacer Crag Stratotankers providing itwith the best aerial refuelling fleet in Asia,albeit smaller than those of India, or China.The RSAF flies a mix of around 50 F-16A-D, mostly recent F-16C Block 52 aircraft,with a strike force comprising 50 rebuiltMDC A-4SU Skyhawks, and 18 TA-4SUtrainers. Around 60 legacy Northrop F-5variants are cited, but like the A-4SU theseare increasingly irrelevant aircraft in aSukhoi saturated region.Current planning is likely to see a decisionwithin 12 months to acquire twenty newstrike fighters to replace the A-4SUSkyhawks, with an F-15E variant - the F-15T, the Eurofighter Typhoon and DassaultRafale being evaluated at the time ofwriting. The proliferation of Sukhois and

The Indian Navy recentlyacquired the Russian ski-jumpcarrier Gorshkov, and willuse it deploy an air wing ofMiG-29K fighters. Thenavalised MiG-29K is similarto the MiG-29 flown by theIAF, and the MiG-29N flownby Malaysia (RuN).

the strike orientation of the bid will putsome pressure on Singapore to opt for an F-15 solution.By 2010 the RSAF will have fielded the A-4SU replacement, and possibly follow onaircraft to replace the increasinglyineffective F-5s. It is reasonable to expectthat Singapore will by then have applied amid-life upgrade to its E-2C fleet, mostlikely bringing them up to the Hawkeye2000 configuration now being introducedby the US Navy. Strategic pressure is alsolikely to see further tankers acquireddownstream. Singapore’s well developedtraining system and good technology basewill see it become an early adopter in theregion of networking capabilities for itsAEW&C and newer fighter aircraft. Theextent to which the RSAF is prepared toinvest in strike oriented ISR capabilitiesremains to be seen.Malaysia has also been rapidly modernisingits fleet, progressively retiring older types.The best aircraft in the currentRMAF/TUDM fleet are the 18 MiG-29NFulcrums, and eight Boeing F/A-18Ds,flown concurrently with 16 legacy NorthropF-5E/F Tigers. The latest acquisition for theMalaysians are 18 Irkut-built Su-30MKMFlankers, based upon the Indian Su-30MKI,although the full configuration of theRMAF/TUDM subtype has yet to bedisclosed. While public statements indicatea strong interest in a follow on order ofadditional Irkut Su-30s, current indicationsare that this buy will be deferred to fund theacquisition of four AEW&C aircraft, likelyto be ordered well before the end of thedecade.In the period following 2010, we can expectto see Malaysia maturing its AEW&Ccapability, applying midlife upgrades to theF/A-18D and MiG-29N, and introducing itsfollow on Su-30MKMs, likely replacingremaining F-5s. Malaysia’s small geographical footprint andthe considerable endurance of the Su-30 atshorter distances to station may see theRMAF/TUDM not opt for aerial refuellingcapabilities, although the UPAZhose/drogue pod would provide a usefulcapability to support air defence patrols.The extent to which the RMAF/TUDM is

prepared to invest in networking remains tobe seen, and much will depend on the typeof AEW&C aircraft acquired.Indonesia remains in economic difficulty asa result of political instability, Islamistsubversion, fallout from the late 1990scollapse, and ongoing separatist andreligious disagreements. The TNI-AU’sprincipal capability until recently resided ina legacy fleet from the Suharto era,comprising less than a dozen F-16A/BBlock 15 OCU fighters, 16 A-4E/H/JSkyhawks and less than a dozen F-5E/Fs,supportability remaining an issue due to USCongressional pressure over East Timor.The TNI-AU has ambitious plans for thefuture, and its leadership have publiclystated an intent to acquire around 50 Sukhoifighters, statements widely repeated byRussian sources at the time. Prior to theeconomic collapse the TNI-AU orderedtwelve KNAAPO Su-30KIs, similar to theRussian Su-27SMK upgrade configuration.This order was believed to be dead until lastyear’s announcement of a lead in buy offour Su-27/30 of unspecified configuration.Russian sources have also claimed that theTNI would like to acquire S-300PMU-2long range SAM systems.How many Sukhois Indonesia ultimatelyacquires remains an open question, as is theability of the TNI-AU to find adequatetalent to crew the fleet. Nevertheless, the

Su-27/30 is the most credible aircraftIndonesia has ever operated and if usedcleverly in any dispute with Australia, couldcause considerable mayhem given thegeographical exposure of gas/oil industryassets in the North, and other targets likeairfields.In summary, the region Australia will faceafter 2010 will be unlike anything seensince the 1940s, in relative terms. Thetechnology, the doctrine, the numbers andtypes of assets will present a strategicchallenge that cannot be ignored.

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The latest photo from the Xian factory shows a H-6 cruise missile carrier, fresh from a rebuild and sporting the new low visibility grey camouflage, but full colourinsignia. The upgrade includes removal of all gun turrets and the aft gunner's blisters, to save weight and reduce drag. Four pylons for 3,000 lb weight class cruisemissiles replace the paired 6,000 lb ratedpylons used for the YJ-6/61/62 Kraken ASMs. It is unclear whether the bomb bay fuel tank devised for the H-6U is used tofurther improve combat radius over gains produced by drag/weight reduction (via RD Fisher).

China continues to manufacture the legacy J-7, a reversed engineered and evolved Fishbed. The latest J-7E and J-7G variants employ a new double delta wing (PLA).

India is to locally manufacture the BrahMos‘Supersonic Cruise Missile’, an improved variantof the Russian Kh-61 Yakhont (NIC, RuN).