Population growth in regional AustraliaA presentation to the Regionalism 2.0 conference, Wodonga, April

2016

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Many regional capitals are already our clients – and population is a chief concern of most regional areas.

Population growth in Regional Australia

• There are 2 ways any place can grow:

• Natural increase (more births than deaths).• Net migration inflow (more people moving in than

moving out)• For regional centres, it’s worth subdividing this further into 4

categories• Natural increase (more births than deaths)• Drawing in population from surrounding areas (sponge city)• Attracting migrants from overseas• Attracting migrants from other regions and metropolitan Australia.

• This presentation looks at the current state of play with population growth in regional Australia, and some centres which are growing or declining in each of these 4 ways.

How much growth is there in regional Australia?

National population and dwelling growth

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Building ApprovalsPopulation Growth

Share of population – 2015 by state/territory

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territor-ies, 2015

Greater Capital City Rest of State

Relative share of growth by part of state – 2010-2015

NSW Vic Qld SA WA Tas NT ACT Australia0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Growth in population split between Capital Cities and Regional Areas - Australian States/Territories, 2010-2015

Greater Capital City Rest of State

Mismatch of population to population growth, regional parts of states, 2010-2015

State

Regional part of state share of

growth

Mismatch to share of

population

NSW 22.8% -12.6%

Vic 11.1% -12.6%

Qld 46.4% -5.2%

SA 10.7% -11.7%

WA 13.8% -7.5%

Tas 18.8% -38.4%

NT 0.7% -41.1%

ACT 0.0% 0.0%

Australia 22.1% -11.2%

Where is the growth occurring?

Migration between metropolitan and regional Australia – 2013/14

Greater S

ydney

Rest of N

SW

Greater M

elbourne

Rest of V

ic.

Greater B

risban

e

Rest of Q

ld

Greater A

delaide

Rest of S

A

Greater P

erth

Rest of W

A

Greater H

obart

Rest of T

as.

Greater D

arwin

Rest of N

T

Australian

Capita

l Terr

itory

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Components of population growth by part of state, 2013-14

Natural increase Overseas migration Inter-regional migration

Migration between metropolitan and regional Australia – 2014/15 financial year

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

Fastest growing regional centres..

Australia’s largest centres, 2015Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15

Centre Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 % growth 2014-15

Sydney 4,526,479 77,565 1.7

Melbourne 4,353,514 86,796 2.0

Brisbane 2,209,453 33,702 1.5

Perth 1,958,912 26,132 1.4

Adelaide 1,288,681 11,970 0.9

Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 10,798 1.8

Newcastle – Maitland 434,454 3,964 0.9

Canberra – Queanbeyan 424,666 2,825 0.7

Central Coast (NSW) 351,081 2,202 0.7

Sunshine Coast 302,122 4,864 1.6

Wollongong 292,388 3,333 1.2

Hobart 209,254 1,594 0.8

Geelong 187,417 3,236 1.8

Townsville 180,333 1,755 1.0

Cairns 147,777 1,359 0.9

Darwin 123,396 1,974 1.6

Toowoomba 114,622 1,044 0.9

Ballarat 99,841 1,332 1.4

Bendigo 92,888 1,122 1.2

Albury - Wodonga 88,949 1,153 1.3

Fastest growth in regional LGAs, 2010-2015Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15

LGA Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015 % growth 5 years

Capel WA 17,316 3,124 22.0

Chittering WA 5,301 907 20.6

Weipa QLD 3,966 629 18.8

Boddington WA 2,537 399 18.7

Busselton WA 36,335 5,.671 18.5

Harvey WA 27,288 4,058 17.5

Gladstone QLD 67,464 9,767 16.9

Karratha WA 26,228 3,600 15.9

Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 1,856 15.5

Ashburton WA 10,951 1,441 15.2

Gingin WA 5,450 664 13.9

Dardanup WA 14,233 1,702 13.6

Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 323 13.5

Livingstone QLD 37,001 4,095 12.4

Broome WA 17,308 1,892 12.3

Denmark WA 5,886 638 12.2

Surf Coast VIC 28,941 3,080 11.9

Maitland NSW 76,607 8,046 11.7

Hope Vale QLD 1,125 114 11.3

Baw Baw VIC 46,638 4,541 10.8

Fastest growth in regional LGAs, 2014-15 onlySource: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15LGA Population 2015 Growth 2014-15 only

Kondinin WA 1,055 4.8%

Cook QLD 4,388 3.0%

Hope Vale QLD 1,125 2.9%

Weipa QLD 3,966 2.9%

Busselton WA 36,355 2.8%

Palerang NSW 15,897 2.6%

Northern Peninsula Area QLD 2,714 2.5%

Harvey WA 27,288 2.5%

Capel WA 17,316 2.2%

Gladstone QLD 67,464 2.1%

Napranum QLD 962 2.1%

Palm Island QLD 2,671 2.1%

Augusta – Margaret River WA 13,807 2.1%

Gloucester NSW 5,160 2.0%

Maitland NSW 76,607 2.0%

Greater Geelong VIC 229,420 2.0%

Chittering WA 5,301 2.0%

Roper Gulf NT 7,436 2.0%

Byron NSW 32,723 1.9%

Roxby Downs SA 5,078 1.9%

Fastest growth in centres Source: ABS, Regional Population Growth (3218.0), 2014-15

Centre Population 2015 Growth 2010-2015

Torquay 18,227 23.6%

Busselton 36,285 18.5%

Karratha 19,235 18.3%

Gladstone – Tannum Sands 49,248 17.2%

Bunbury 75,628 14.5%

Emerald 15,225 14.5%

Warragul - Drouin 33,386 14.2%

Broome 14,776 13.2%

Yeppoon 18,543 12.7%

Highfields 18,771 12.5%

Ocean Grove – Point Lonsdale 25,230 12.0%

Cessnock 22,596 11.1%

Townsville 180,333 9.9%

Drysdale – Clifton Springs 12,882 9.8%

Geraldton 39,825 9.6%

Mackay 85,455 9.5%

Gold Coast – Tweed Heads 624,918 9.4%

Sunshine Coast 302,122 9.0%

Ballarat 99,841 9.0%

Growing your population by overseas migration

Historical migration - national

19861987

19881989

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Annual net migration

Overseas migration…Capital Cities vs Regional

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA

WA

Tas

NT

ACT

Australia

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

11.4%

7.2%

39.3%

7.6%

12.2%

42.7%

27.6%

0.0%

15.8%

Recent overseas arrivals, 2006-2011, Capital City/Balance of State

Capital City Rest of State

Largest overseas migration into regional cities from 2012 to 2015 (calendar years)

LGA Migration (4 years)

Main countries % Humanitarian

Gold Coast 10,110 UK, China, India, Japan, South Africa 3%

Sunshine Coast 4,205 UK, India, South Africa 2%

Cairns 3,643 India, UK, Philippines 12%Wollongong 3,577 China, India, Syria, Iraq 26%Geelong 3,345 India, Afghanistan, Iran 24%

Townsville 2,739 India, UK, Philippines, Somalia, DR Congo 17%

Newcastle 2,631 India, China, UK, Afghanistan, USA 15%

Toowoomba 2,471 India, Philippines, Afghanistan, DR Congo 29%

Mackay 1,825 Philippines, India 1%Rockhampton 1,475 Philippines, India, Vietnam, Brazil 9%

Shepparton 1,463 Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iraq 27%

Labour force status of recently arrived migrants in regional areas

Employed

Unemployed

Not in the labour force

Not stated

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

Total population Migrants in 2006-2011

Occupations of recently arrived migrants in regional areas

Managers

Professionals

Technicians and Trades Workers

Community and Personal Service Workers

Clerical and Administrative Workers

Sales Workers

Machinery Operators and Drivers

Labourers

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Total population Migrants in 2006-2011

Migrants keep the population young, humanitarian migrants more likely to be children.

0-5 6-11 12-15 16-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Age of Migrants by Visa Stream - 2006-2015

Skilled Family Humanitarian

Source: Department of Immigration, Settlement reporting

Sponge cities

Sponge cities

Sponge city seems to be a term which has gone out of fashion.

I still like it.

It effectively describes a place, usually a regional capital, which draws population growth from declines in population in smaller centres and rural areas in the surrounding region.

This is not to say they aren’t growing through other migration as well.

Some examples of Australian centres which have a strong element of growth in the form of a sponge city.

Griffith, NSW

Toowoomba, Qld

Albany, WA

Population from metropolitan Australia

Population movement from metro to regional Australia

Some regional centres are effective at attracting population from metropolitan areas in net terms.

These tend to be a mixture of

• Young families seeking to escape the city.• Retirees• Young people attending university.

Most examples are in New South Wales. This is because there is a strong driver out from Sydney due to extreme house prices, as we saw on the state migration chart.

Recent internal migration data are now available from the ABS, though this is only at the broad region (SA4) level. It can give an indication of where metropolitan populations are going, however.

Region level – top migration gain from Sydney – 2011-12 to 2014-15

Region Net migration gain from Sydney over 4 years

Central Coast NSW* 14,305

Southern Highlands/Shoalhaven NSW

6,486

Gold Coast 5,160

Mid-North Coast 5,152

Illawarra 5,107

Central West 4,552

Hunter Valley (ex. Newcastle) 3,610

Richmond-Tweed 3,075

* Note that some ABS collections consider Central Coast to be part of Greater Sydney

Region level – top migration gain from Melbourne – 2011-12 to 2014-15

Region Net migration gain from Melbourne over 3 years

Geelong 6,116

Latrobe – West Gippsland 5,943

Ballarat 3,230

Bendigo 2,871

Hume North East Vic 2,684

Sunshine Coast 540

Losses of population from regional areas to metropolitanMost losses are in the 18-24 age range, even where an area is growing in other age groups.

Losses of population from regional areas to metropolitanBut some areas have turned this around. Large universities and strong industries employing young people help a lot.

A word on housing prices…

One big advantage that many regional cities have is housing prices.

The media focusses almost exclusively on capital city housing prices, particularly Sydney and Melbourne.

Many regional cities still have quite affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes.Entry level – 1st quartile housing price

Houses Units

Sydney $598,094 $497,602

Regional NSW $281,393 $239,422

Melbourne $424,802 $363,538

Regional Vic $235,515 $196,333

Many large regional cities still have relatively affordable housing, even relative to lower incomes

Tamworth example Tamworth Regional Council Greater Sydney

Median Annual income for workers (2011 Census) $40,560 $50,752

Median Annual income for workers (AWE adjusted 2015) $47,455.20 $59,379.84

Entry level (1st quartile) house price (2015) $244,921 $598,094

Median house price (2015) $311,379 $865,140

Multiple of income - entry level

5.2

10.1

Multiple of income - median

6.6 14.6

Which regional centres are expected to grow in future?

What does the future hold?

.id population forecastForecast growth in key regional centres

Centre Population 2016 Population 2036 20 year % changeNewcastle (LGA) 161,043 189,432 17.6%

Wollongong (LGA) 208,565 243,156 16.6%

Bathurst 42,354 52,851 24.8%

Orange 41,948 50,497 20.4%

Tamworth 61,036 71,166 16.6%

Wagga Wagga 64,678 80,410 24.2%

Albury-Wodonga 92,552 124,472 34.5%

Port Macquarie 79,144 102,926 30.1%

Queanbeyan 41,924 57,600 37.4%

Dubbo 41,601 45,143 8.5%

.id population forecastForecast growth in key regional centres

Centre Population 2016 Population 2036

20 year % change

Geelong 234,999 320,791 36.5%

Ballarat 104,355 145,197 39.1%

Bendigo 112,853 156,151 38.4%

Latrobe Valley 75,825 91,103 20.1%

Shepparton 66,222 83,782 26.5%

Warrnambool 34,713 46,762 34.7%

Mildura 53,568 61,301 14.4%

Wangaratta 27,937 31,806 13.8%

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