Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)

1/8

Weekly Report

Commodity1 4 t h F e b r u a r y - 1 9 t h F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

WEEKLY

Metals Rises on Positive

Sentiments !


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

Capitalvia Global Research Limited

14th-18th

8:30pm

Mortgage Delinquencies

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

USD

USD

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:30pm

8:30pm

8:30pm

Core Retail Sales m/m

Retail Sales m/m

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Import Prices m/m

TIC Long-Term Purchases

Business Inventories m/m

NAHB Housing Market Index

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Tue

Feb 15

0.6%

11.9

1.1%

85.1B

0.2%

16

9.13%

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:45pm

9:00pm

Building Permits

PPI m/m

Core PPI m/m

Housing Starts

Industrial Production m/m

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Wed

Feb 16

1.1%

0.2%

0.53M

0.8%

1.9M

0.57M

0.5%

0.9%

0.3%

0.55M

0.6%

0.57M

0.5%

14.4

0.9%

91.3B

0.7%

16

0.6%

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

12:30am

7:00pm

7:00pm

8:30pm

8:30pm

9:00pm

11:00pm

8:30pm

7:00pm

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Core CPI m/m

CPI m/m

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

CB Leading Index m/m

Natural Gas Storage

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Unemployment Claims

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Thu

Feb 17

0.1%

0.5%

19.3

1.0%

-209B

383K401K

0.4%

20.8

0.4%

0.2%

Day 1

6:30pm

G20 Meetings

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

ALL

ALL

Fri

Feb 18

Mon

Feb 14


3/8

Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview

3 | www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

Gold retreated below $1,360 an ounce on Friday after the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak following weeks of protest took some heat out of risk

aversion. Despite the decline, bullion posted its second consecutive weekly gain as fears that Egypt's unrest would spread across the Arab world had put a floor on

Gold prices. Mubarak, the second Arab leader to be overthrown by a popular uprising in a month, handed power to the army after 18 days of relentless rallies

against poverty, corruption and repression caused support from the armed forces to evaporate. Spot Gold fell 0.4 percent to $1,357.95 an ounce, having earlier

risen to a three-week high of $1,368.16. U.S. Gold futures for April delivery settled down $2.1 at $1,360.4. Futures trading volume was 40 percent below its 30-day

average, in line with lower turnover during the week. Some traders said dwindling volume could signal waning investor interest in gold. Gold was weakened further

after data showed stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer sentiment, which rose to an eight-month high in early February. Gold fell 6 percent in January after a run

of well-received U.S. data and easing worries about Europe's debt crisis shifted investor focus onto assets seen as higher-risk, but its slide has been arrested this

month.

Investment demand for Gold remained soft, with holdings of the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, easing nearly a

tonne on Thursday. They are down just over 55 tonnes so far this year. In the same period of 2010, they fell around 27 tonnes. "Consistent offloading by ETFs, who

were pivotal in taking the metal beyond $1,400, and lackluster physical demand, are the key bearish forces curbing sustained gains". Premiums for Gold bars were

steady in Hong Kong and Singapore, with no signs of buying interest from China after the Lunar New Year celebration. There was hardly any physical buying in Asia

related to unrest in Egypt.

ETF DEMAND STAYS SOFT

Gold retreats after Mubarak resigns; support seen

U.S. oil prices fell to a 10-week low on Friday after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down and handed over power to the army. Mubarak's departure

came after 18 days of mass protests that had raised concern about potential for supply disruptions and a spread of the turmoil to major oil producers in the region

and had helped push ICE Brent crude futures above $100 a barrel for the first t ime since 2008. U.S. Crude futures for March delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $85.58 a

barrel, the lowest close in 10 weeks and off 3.89 percent on the week, the biggest weekly percentage loss since the week to Nov. 19. Money managers increased

their net long Crude futures positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week to Tuesday, as Egypt's protests raged, according to a Commodity Futures

Trading Commission report released late on Friday. In addition to the unrest in the region, OPEC producers have been subject to calls to boost production on

concerns that oil prices above $100 a barrel will stifle the global economic recovery. But, so far, OPEC officials have resisted calls for an emergency meeting to

address high prices and output targets. Monthly reports from both the International Energy Agency and OPEC this week showed higher production from the OPEC

nations, but they expected global demand to keep rising.

OPTIMISM ABOUT THE ECONOMY

U.S. Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in eight months in early February, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of

Consumers and in a separate survey, the U.S. economy and jobs market were seen growing more strongly in the first quarter than previously expected. U.S. stocks

rose as Egypt's clearer political picture lifted investor sentiment. A stronger dollar can curb dollar-denominated oil prices because consumers using other

currencies must pay more for the commodity and the value of dollars paid to producers is higher.

US Oil falls to 10-wk low as Mubarak steps down

Copper bounced from a near two-week low to end a shade higher on Friday, as broader market sentiment gradually improved after news of the resignation of

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Mubarak handed power over to the army, ending three decades of autocratic rule, and bowing to escalating pressure from the

military and protesters demanding he goes. Copper's turnaround tracked a similar reversal in world equity markets, as Mubarak's departure was seen partially

reviving investors' appetite for risk. "The markets are saying Egypt may not be as big a risk at this point." London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper for three-month

delivery ended $10 higher at $9,961 a tonne, up from an earlier session low at $9,838, its lowest level since Feb. 1. As a result, the price now sits just $100 below

Monday's record peak at $10,160. COMEX March Copper eased 0.75 cent to settle at $4.5360 per lb, near the upper end of its $4.4810 to $4.5795 session range,

and about 10 cents below its own record peak at $4.6375. Backed by widespread expectations of robust global demand growth this year against a backdrop of

falling production, Copper prices have managed to remain buoyant, even as profit-taking pressures mounted this week. "We are seeing a lot of volume come in

and accumulating a lot of positions at these levels. To me, it seems like an entrenched long-side that is going to hold these trades out for a while." Indeed, at

around 51,300 lots by 1900 GMT, COMEX volumes stood about 40 percent above the 30-day average. But worries about the near-term demand outlook in China

lingered after the world's top Copper consumer raised interest rates on Tuesday in an effort to rein in inflation.

Underscoring Copper's demand worries, Shanghai stockpiles rose nearly 10,000 tonnes to 144,197 tonnes, latest weekly data showed. Stocks of Copper in LMEwarehouses fell 225 tonnes to 396,725 tonnes, but a recent trend of rising stocks has raised some concerns about the demand outlook. Stocks of aluminum fell

2,325 tonnes but were just 41,300 tonnes off a record high of 4,640,750 tonnes hit on Jan. 20, 2010. Vast amounts of the metal used in transport and packaging

have been tied up under cheap rent and financing deals, where metal holders profit if prices rise faster than storage costs.

INVENTORY SIGNALS

Copper ends up after Egypt's Mubarak steps down


4/8


5/8

CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward consolidation phase. Last week in Crude oil was not sustained

at higher levels and closed near to its weekly low. For the coming week 82.50$ will act as

major support and 93.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major

resistance is found at 4250 and 4380 and major supports will be 3800 and 3675.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 83.50 $ a barrel then above 88.25 $ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 90.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4025 Crude oil can touch the level of 4100 if it

sustains above 3900. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper neither sustained on higher levels nor at lower

levels. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 462 then above the level of

464 Copper can test the level of 470. In MCX Copper above 465 Copper can test the level of

471 if it does not break the level of 447 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 475 and 485 will act as major resistance and 444 and 433 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 470 and 480

and supports would be found at 450 and 440.

Strategy


95.62 91.18 88.38 86.74 83.94 82.30

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

77.86

Script

Levels

486.450 470.80 462.20 455.15 446.55 439.50


423.85

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on

higher levels. Last week Natural Gas closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas

does not sustains above the level of 4. 280$ then below the level of 3.850$ Natural Gas can

test the level of 3.720 $ and above 4.275$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level

of 4.370$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains below 174 in the coming week then it can test

the level of 165, if it does not break the level of 201 on the upside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 45.0000 then above the level of

46.0100 USD/INR can test the level of 46.3500 and below 45.0000USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 44.8300.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 46.4000 and

47.1000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy


4.784 4.405 4.158 4.026 3.779 3.647


3.268

Script

Levels

46.8870 46.1870 45.8930 45.4870 45.1930 44.7870


44.0870

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1360.4 0.85

SILVER 2999.5 3.22

COPPER 453.6 -0.95

CRUDE 85.58 -3.88

NATURAL GAS 3.91 -9.28

USD/INR 45.6 0.09

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NATURAL GAS 23- FEB-11 177 -10.43

CRUDE OIL 21- FEB-11 3905 -4.48

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20270 20209 2011620498 20340 153603 14114 308031570

Silver MCX 5-MAR-11 Silver RS./ KG. 44516 44498 4431746144 45480 374835 19738 5070742964

Copper MCX 28- FEB-11 Copper RS./ KG. 464.5 464.8 451.6466.2 458.95 476768 27522 2169590-5.55

Crude Oil MCX 21- FEB-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4088 4085 38964085 3905 955958 42089 3785034-183

Natural Gas MCX 23- FEB-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 197.6 197.1 175.7197.1 177 160826 18368 367352.5-20.6

Lead MCX 28- FEB-11 Lead RS./ KG. 118.6 118.55 113.2119 118.4 93249 3291 534124.1-0.2

Zinc MCX 28- FEB-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 114.1 114.2 109.9115.05 112.6 111507 3695 620661.4-1.5

Aluminum MCX 28- FEB-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 115.85 115.7 112.5116.6 114.1 32721 -1.75 1694 187442.5

Nickel MCX 28- FEB-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1294.1 1296 1251.51310.8 1294.2 263969 9632 844486.50.1

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

SILVER 5-APR-11 45480 2.17

GOLD 5-MAR-11 20340 0.35


Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


- - - -

ALUMINIUM 28- FEB-11 114.1 -1.51

*

* Turnover Till Friday


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

21082.00

48967.67

488.12

4340.00

226.07

128.47

122.82

1404.10

122.60

20700.00

47140.67

473.52

4151.00

204.67

122.67

117.67

1344.80

118.50

20318.00

45313.67

458.92

3962.00

183.27

116.87

112.52

1285.50

114.40

20138.00

44483.33

451.63

3839.00

169.43

114.73

109.98

1260.20

112.20

19936.00

43486.67

418.97

3773.00

161.87

111.07

107.37

1226.20

110.30

19554.00

41659.67

429.72

3584.00

140.47

105.27

102.22

1166.90

106.20

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

20520.00

46310.33

466.23

4028.00

190.83

120.53

115.13

1319.50

116.30

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Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)

Documents

Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (14th - 18th February '11)