Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th - 22nd October '10)

8/8/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th - 22nd October '10)

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18th Oct 2010 to 23rd Oct 2010

WEEKLYCOMMODITY REPORT

www.capitalvia.com

R ES EA R C H

Silver Gains In Unison With Gold!


2/11

R ES EA R C H

Weekly Commodity Report1st March to 6th Mar 2010

R ES EA R C HR ES EA R C H

ECONOMIC DATA

Weekly Report Commodity18th Oct to 23rd Oct 2010

www.capitalvia.com | 2

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

9:00am

9:15am

9:15am

10:00am

TIC Long-Term Purchases

Capacity Utilization Rate

Industrial Production m/m

NAHB Housing Market Index

USD

USD

USD

USD

MonOct 18

74.7%

0.2%

13

61.2B

74.8%

0.3%

14

8:30am

8:30am

10:00am

7:00pm

Building Permits

Housing Starts

FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

FOMC Member Duke Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

Tue

Oct 19

0.60M

0.57M0.58M

0.59M

10:30am

2:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

Beige Book

USD

USD

WedOct 20

-0.4M

8:30am

10:00am

10:00am

10:30am

2:00pm

9:45pm

Unemployment Claims

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

CB Leading Index m/m

Natural Gas Storage

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

ThuOct 21

-0.7

0.3%

462K455K

0.5

0.2%

Day 1 G20 MeetingsALLFriOct 22

Day 2 G20 MeetingsALLSatOct 23


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R ES EA R C H




U.S. gold futures ended lower on Friday, after a two-day record-sett ing rally, as investors took profits on a dollar

bounce and as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered few new details on further economic stimulus. U.S. central

bank is likely to adopt easier monetary policy as soon as its next meeting in November. But he failed to offer the

details that some gold investors are craving to sustain the rally. New York State reduced investor anxiety

somewhat and triggered profit-taking in gold, which is viewed as a safe haven investment. Estimated gold

volume at a busy 185,025 lots, about 31 percent above its 30-day average. Spot gold was trading down 0.8

percent at $1,366.15 an ounce.

U.S. GOLD ENDS

LOWER ON DOLLAR

RISE VS EURO

Fundamental Market Overview

Oil prices fell nearly 2 percent in light, volatile trading on Friday, posting their first weekly loss in four weeks, as

options expired and the dollar rose, sparking prof it-taking ahead of the weekend. Oil prices rose early in the

session after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled that the central bank would likely pump

more money into the sagging economy. But prices weakened later on the view that any such quantitative

easing was already priced in the market and as the dollar rose on profit-taking, with traders saying its recent

decline was overdone. A stronger dollar makes commodit ies like oil more expensive for buyers holding other

currencies. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for November delivery sett led down $1.44, or 1.74 percent, at $81.25 a barrel, after

trading from $80.75 to $83.33 volume was around 661,000 lot s. For the week, front -month NYMEX crude fell $1.41, or 1.71 percent. At the

start of the day, put options contracts that grant the right t o sell at a specific price by a certain date -- were concentrated on the $82, $81 and

$80 levels.

OIL DOWN FIRST

WEEK IN FOUR ON

OPTIONS, DOLLAR

U.S. copper futures ended up for a fifth consecutive weekly gain on Friday, with a spike in regional

manufacturing activity helping to keep prices buoyed near 27-month highs, even in the face of a firmer dollar.

Copper for December delivery rose 2.35 cents to sett le at $3.8390 per lb on the COMEX metals division of the

New York Mercantile Exchange. Range from $3.7945 to $3.8645. On Thursday, benchmark December

contract rallied to $3.8675, which marked highest level for third-position futures contract since July 7, 2008.

COMEX estimated final copper futures volume at 45,903 lots, above Thursday's tally of 37,341 lots. Open

interest up 342 lots at 160,061 contracts as of Oct. 14. Manufacturing activity in New York State jumped in October, lif ted by improvements in

new orders and shipments, according to the New York Fed's " Empire State" business index. Copper further supported by stronger-than-

expected 0.6 percent rise in September retail sales. U.S. copper imports fell to a one-year low, snapping string of four consecutive monthly

increases, suggesting a decelerating economy. London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks fell by 475 tonnes to 371,025 tonnes on

Friday. Copper inventories in Shanghai warehouses rose 9.9 percent to 103,510 tonnes from week earlier - exchange data. COMEX copperwarehouse stocks drawn down 958 short tons to 79,436 tons as of Thursday. LME copper ended flat at $8,400 a tonne.

US COPPER ENDS UP

FOR 5TH STRAIGHT

WEEK; BUCKS DLR


QUANTITATIVE EASING CONCERNS

Oil investors also raised questions about the size and the t iming of the w idely expected purchases of government debt by the central bank in a

second round of quantit ative easing measures. The unease prompted profit-taking. Economic reports kept pressure on the Fed to act soon to

lessen the risk of a downward price spiral. U.S. inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, despite a pick-up in retail sales, the government

said. A survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly dipped in early October to its weakest level since July, with buying plans

declining. OPEC's secretary general said oil prices of $75 to $85 a barrel would not hold back the global economy. Some members of the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have called for higher prices to compensate for a weak U.S. dollar. OPEC decided on

Thursday to leave its oil output policy unchanged, as it has done since agreeing to a record output cut in December 2008.


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R ES EA R C H




COMEX Gold is in a bullish phase. Last week COMEX Goldsustained above the level of 1340$ and made a high of 1388$ anounce. In the coming week 1270$ will act as a major support inCOMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1340$ an ouncethen above 1400$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1420$ an

ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1300$ then it canslight ly correct and test t he level of 1270$ an ounce.

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy ifCOMEX Gold sustains above 1340$ an ounce, then above 1400$it can further go upward and can test t he level of 1420$ an ounce.Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be

1310$ and 1270$.Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week would be1401$ and 1425$Major support in MCX Gold is 19550 and 19300Major resistance in MCX Gold is 20200 and 20500

Market Overview Strategy

Weekly Chart

Technical Analysis

GOLD

SCRIPT R4 R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3 S4

GOLD 1508 1461 1414 1393 1367 1346 1320 1273 1226

Weekly Pivot s



5/11

R ES EA R C H



COMEX Silver is in a bullish phase. Last week COMEX Silversustained above the level of 2350$ an ounce. For the upcomingweek 2285$ and 2160$ are the crucial supports and 2500$ and2580$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 37000and 38800 will act as major resistance and 34900 and 33500 w ill

act as major supports.

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy ifSilver sustains above the level of 2350$ an ounce, then above2500$ an ounce it can further go upward and might test the levelof 2550$. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.


StrategyMarket Overview

Weekly Pivot s


SILVER 3007 2807 2606 2517 2406 2317 2205 2005 1804

SILVER

Weekly Chart



6/11

R ES EA R C H



CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is consolidating on charts. Last week Crude Oilbreak the important level of 84$ but was not able to sustain nearit. For the coming week 80$ will act as major support and 86$ abarrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil for the nextweek major resistance is found at 3735 and 3880 and major

supports will be 3550 and 3475.

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, ifNYMEX Crude break the level of 84.5$ a barrel and sustains abovethat then it can slightly come up and touch the level of 86$ abarrel. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.



Weekly Pivot s


CRUDE 92.15 88.78 85.41 83.33 82.04 79.96 78.67 75.30 71.93

Weekly Chart



7/11

R ES EA R C H



COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders shoulduse the strategy of buying on lower levels. COMEX Copper didbreak the level of 379 last week and sustained above it. If nextweek COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 380 then abovethe level of 386 Copper can test the level of 394. In MCX Copper

above 378 Copper can test the level of 383 if i t does not break thelevel of 367 on the downside.

For the upcoming week 390 and 410 will act as major resistanceand 365 and 340 w ill act as major supports in COMEX Copper. ForMCX Copper major resistance would be 378 and 388 andsupports would be found at 367 and 357.



Weekly Pivot s


COPPER 425.80 410.80 395.80 389.85 380.80 374.85 365.80 350.80 335.80

Weekly Chart



8/11

R ES EA R C H



NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a downward phase and traders should use thestrategy of selling on higher levels. Last week Natural Gas breakthe important level of 3.600. If next week Natural Gas sustainsbelow the level of 3.500$ then below the level of 3.450$ NaturalGas can test the level of 3.300$ and above 3.900$ Natural Gas can

slight ly go up and test the level of 4.050$. In MCX, if Natural Gassustains below 150 then it can test the level of 143 if it does notbreak the level of 168 on the upside.

For the upcoming week 3.450$ and 3.150$ will act as majorsupports and 3.900$ and 4.150$ will act as major resistance in USNatural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 175and 191 and support s would be found at 152 and 143.



Weekly Pivot s


NG 4.382 4.125 3.868 3.701 3.611 3.444 3.354 3.097 2.840

Weekly Chart



9/11

R ES EA R C H



USD/INR

USD/INR is bearish on charts so traders should use the strategy ofselling on higher levels. If next week USD/INR sustains below thelevel of 44.7000 then below the level of 43.9000 USD/INR can testthe level of 43.5000 and above 44.8000 USD/INR can slightly goup and test the level of 45.3000.

For the upcoming week 43.5000 and 43.1000 will act as majorsupports and 44.8000 and 45.7000 will act as major resistance inUSD/INR.



Weekly Pivot s


USD/INR 46.6030 45.8230 45.0430 44.5470 44.2630 43.7670 43.4830 42.7030 41.9230

Weekly Chart



10/11


Weekly Pivots

R ES EA R C H



GOLD

COPPER

NATURAL GAS

ZINC

ALUMINUM

20777.33 20294.33 20077.67 19811.33 19594.67

393.60 383.50 379.60 373.40 369.50

184.83 172.63 164.57 160.43 152.37

116.13 110.53 108.32 104.93 102.72

113.10 109.45 107.30 105.80 103.65

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1

SILVER 40645.67 38283.67 37268.33 35921.67 34906.33

CRUDE 3905.33 3772.33 3691.67 3639.33 3558.67

LEAD 119.23 112.23 109.22 105.23 102.22

NICKELNICKEL 1163.60 1119.70 1094.10 1075.80 1050.20


19328.33

363.30

148.23

99.33

102.15

S2

33559.67

3506.33

98.23

1031.90

18845.33

353.20

136.03

93.73

98.50

S3

31197.67

3373.33

91.23

988.00


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R ES EA R C H


R ES EA R C H

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Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th - 22nd October '10)

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Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (18th - 22nd October '10)