Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)

1/8

Weekly Report

Commodity2 1 s t M a r c h - 2 6 t h M a r c h 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

WEEKLY

Precious Metals Recovers

on Japan's Nuclear Crisis !


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

Capitalvia Global Research Limited

7:30pm Existing Home SalesUSD

5:00pm

7:30pm

7:30pm

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

OFHEO HPI m/m

Richmond Manufacturing Index

USD

USD

USD

Tue

Mar 22

4.1B

-0.3%

25

292K

3.7B

-0.2%

23

292K

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

MonMar 21

7:30pm

8:00pm

9:30pm

New Home Sales

Crude Oil Inventories

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

USD

JPY

JPY

Wed

Mar 23

1.7M

6:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

8:00pm

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Orders m/m

Natural Gas Storage

USD

USD

USD

USD

Thu

Mar 24

385K

-3.0%

3.2%

-56B

392K

2.2%

1.2%

5:00am

2:30pm

5:00pm

6:00pm

6:00pm

7:25pm

7:25pm

9:45pm

FOMC Member Duke Speaks

FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks

FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Final GDP q/q

Final GDP Price Index q/q

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

Fri

Mar 25

0.4%

68.2

2.8%

4.6%

0.4%

68.1

3.1%


3/8

Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview

3 | www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

Gold rose for a third straight day on Friday after a unilateral ceasefire declared by Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi failed to calm investor nerves as political tensions

remained elevated across the Arab world. Bullion also benefited from a weaker dollar as traders braced for more official action after the G7 countries coordinated to

intervene on the yen, and as fresh political unrest was reported in Yemen, Syria and Bahrain. Spot Gold rose 1.1 percent to $1,418.10 an ounce. The U.S. April contract

settled up $11.9 at $1,416.10. Total COMEX Gold trade was about 15 percent lower than its 30-day average. Lower-than-usual turnover during Gold's gains prompted

some traders to doubt the metal had momentum to rise further. In Asian trade, the market largely ignored news that China's central bank raised lenders' required reserves by50 basis points, a move viewed by some as a confirmation of Gold's inflation-hedge appeal. The metal ended the week flat after dropping 1 percent last week, as Japan's

earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis sent some investors to the sidelines with global equity and commodity markets still reeling from heavy losses. Noncommercial net

long positions, or bullish bets, fell about 9 percent in the week to March 15 as prices weakened, according to the Commitments of Traders report by the U.S. Commodity

Futures Trading Commission. Spot silver rose 2.5 percent to $35.02 an ounce, with volume about one-third lower than its 30-day norm.

GOLD UP AS LIBYA CEASEFIRE FAILS TO CALM TENSION

NYMEX-CRUDE ENDS DOWN, LOSS PARED ON LIBYAN TENSION

U.S. Crude oil futures fell on Friday after Libya declared a ceasefire to comply with a United Nations resolution authorizing a no-fly zone and other military action to protect

civilians. Losses were trimmed near the close after U.S. President Barack Obama warned Muammar Gaddafi that military action will ensue if Libya did not obey the U.N.

demands. In volatile trading, NYMEX April Crude rose more than 2 percent to hit the day's high overnight after passage of the U.N. resolution, later falling more than 1percent on Libya's truce declaration. Uncertainty over whether Gaddafi had carried out the truce put a f loor on the day's low. Prices also ended well above the day's low as

unrest in Bahrain and Yemen festered and analysts said more tensions were likely to spread across the Middle East and North Africa, keeping the market worried about oil

supply stability.

FUNDAMENTALSOn the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for April delivery settled at $101.07 a barrel, down 35 cents. For the week, it dipped 9 cents, declining for two straight weeks.

In London, ICE Brent for May delivery settled 97 cents lower, or 0.84 percent, at $113.93 a barrel. For the week, the contract rose $1.06, or 0.93 percent.While working to cool down overheating nuclear fuel rods at a tsunami-damaged nuclear plant, Japanese engineers conceded that burying the facility in sand and concrete-

-the Chernobyl solution--may be a last resort to prevent a catastrophic radiation release. Japan's Idemitsu Kosan Co will raise the run rate at its four refineries in Japan to full

production this week to help ease a severe oil shortage in eastern Japan after last week's powerful earthquake. The International Energy Agency expects an additional

200,000 barrels per day of oil will be needed to make up for a shortfall of power generation in Japan, with little impact on global oil prices. China's central bank said that it

would raise lenders' required reserves by 50 basis points, the third time this year and the sixth since November. Saudi King Abdullah announced $93 billion in handouts and

increased security in a renewed effort to shield the kingdom from unrest.

COPPER ENDS DOWN ON PRE-WEEKEND RISK REDUCTION

Copper failed to extend gains into a third day Friday, ending lower, as further tightening moves in China, Middle East unrest and Japan's nuclear crisis kept investor risk at a

minimum. Still, prices of the metal managed to post their best weekly performance since the first week of February, snapping back from initial panic-led liquidation pressures

stemming from last Friday's devastating earthquake in Japan. London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month Copper shed $55 to close at $9,510 a tonne, still down about 7

percent from its record at $10,190 in February. COMEX Copper for May delivery eased 0.50 cent to settle at $4.3390 per lb in lighter-than-usual volume. According to

Thomson Reuter's preliminary data, COMEX volume traded stood just above 30,100 lots, over 40 percent below the 30-day norm. Copper prices initially came off after China's

central bank raised lenders' required reserves for the sixth time in an ongoing cycle of monetary tightening to fight inflation. But the market digested the widely expected

move, expecting the impact of Chinese tightening measures to be moderate in the longer term. News that Libya declared a cease-fire in the country to comply with a United

Nations resolution passed overnight gave a further boost to the market's confidence.LME Copper stocks added another 850 tonnes overnight, boosting inventories to their highest level since last July, at 429,650 tonnes. Copper inventories in warehouses

monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 12.1 percent from last Friday.


4/8

GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold break the level of 1400$ and

made a low of 1380 but was not able to close above that . In the coming week 1375$ will

act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1425$ an ounce

then above 1440 $ an ounce it can touch the level of 1460$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold

sustains below 1390$ then it can slightly correct and test the level of 1370$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1425$ an ounce, then above 1440$ it can test the level of 1460$ an ounce and above

1460$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1370$ and 1340$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1475$

Major support in MCX Gold is 20450 and 20150

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 21200 and 21450

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver sustained above

3400$. For the upcoming week 3350$ and 3200$ are the crucial supports and 3650$ and

3800$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 55200 and 58000 will act as

major resistance and 50000 and 48600 will act as major supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on

lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3530$ an ounce, then above 3680$

an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3750$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy


1515 1462 1439 1410 1386 1257

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1304

Script

Levels

4092 3798 3652 3504 3358 3210


2916

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



5/8

CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week in Crude oil neither sustained on higher levels

nor at lower levels. For the coming week 93$ will act as major support and 107 $ a barrel

will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4670 and 4835 and

major supports will be 4370 and 4200.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 96.00 $ a barrel then above 101.50 $ it can slightly come up and touch

the level of 103.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4585 Crude oil can touch the level of 4650 if

it sustains above 4470. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy onlower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was up for most part of week. If next week COMEX

Copper sustains above the level of 410 then above the level of 440 Copper can test the level

of 447. In MCX Copper above 439 Copper can test the level of 445 if it does not break the

level of 410 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 438 and 455 will act as major resistance and 407 and 396 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 438 and 455

and supports would be found at 407 and 395.

Strategy


115.19 107.75 104.41 100.31 96.97 92.87


85.43

Script

Levels

487.10 457.10 446.60 427.10 416.60 397.10


367.10

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on

lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was able to sustain above 3.800$ for most part of week.

If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 3.960$ then above the level of 4.200$

Natural Gas can test the level of 4.300 $ and below 3.650$ Natural Gas can slightly go

down and test the level of 3.490$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above180 in the coming

week then it can test the level of 190, if it does not break the level of 197 on the upside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.6600 then above the level of

45.2000 USD/INR can test the level of 45.4000 and below 44.6600USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 44.4000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 46.4000 and

47.1000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy


4.851 4.453 4.311 4.055 3.913 3.657


3.259

Script

Levels

45.9070 45.5070 45.2530 45.1070 44.8530 44.7070


44.3070

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1416.1 -0.40

SILVER 3505.8 -2.44

COPPER 433.9 3.13

CRUDE 101.07 -0.09

NATURAL GAS 4.168 7.17

USD/INR 45 -0.13

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

SILVER 05 -MAY-11 53111 -1.74

GOLD 05-APR-11 20848 -1.19

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21098 20990 2046921074 20848 170457 11104 3494557.28-250

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 54053 53982 5137054345 53111 516707 14683 8132126.33-942

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 423.6 423.05 411.2437.9 435.35 701280 20398 2961996.1411.75

Crude Oil MCX 18-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4629 4612 44494740 4633 108769 8958 492628.644

Natural Gas MCX 28-MAR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 176.2 176.8 173.1189.8 187.7 170506 8263 385487.3311.5

Lead MCX 31-MAR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 111.4 111.3 110.35123.45 121.75 140742 7390 820818.0510.35

Zinc MCX 31-MAR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 103 103.5 101.75106.3 105 131599 8790 683893.822

Aluminum MCX 31-MAR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 114.3 113.15 110.5114.95 114.85 34452 0.55 2102 194129.65

Nickel MCX 31-MAR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1181.7 1180 1120.71210 1210 305589 6535 883372.1428.3

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

LEAD 31-MAR-11 121.75 9.29

NATURAL GAS 28-MAR-11 187.70 6.53


Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


*

* Turnover Till Friday

COPPER 29-APR-11 435.35 2.77


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

22007.67

58890.33

481.57

5189.67

216.90

144.70

113.47

1358.70

122.33

21402.67

55915.33

454.87

4898.67

200.20

131.60

108.92

1269.40

117.88

20797.67

52940.33

428.17

4607.67

183.50

118.50

104.37

1180.10

113.43

20521.33

51535.67

418.43

4475.33

177.20

113.55

102.43

1150.20

111.92

20192.67

49965.33

418.97

4316.67

166.80

105.40

99.82

1090.80

108.98

19587.67

46990.33

374.77

4025.67

150.10

92.30

95.27

1001.50

104.53

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

21126.33

54510.67

445.13

4766.33

193.90

126.65

106.98

1239.50

116.37

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Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)

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Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (21st -25th March - 2011)