Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)

8/6/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)

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Weekly Report

Commodity

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W E E K L Y

PRECIOUS METTLES WEAKENS ON

CHINA'S INTEREST RATES !

Globa l Resear ch L im i t ed

1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1



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Economic Data

Tentative

6:00pm

Treasury Currency Report

Building Permits

USD

USD

Tue May 17

0.59M

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon May 16

Weekly Report

Commodity

CAPITALVIA GLOBAL RESEARCH LIMITED

6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing Index USD 20.7

17

0.59M

0.58M

77.7%

21.7

1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1

6:30pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks USD

6:30pm TIC Long-Term Purchases USD 26.9B57.7B

7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index USD 16

6:00pm Housing Starts USD

6:45pm Capacity Utilization Rate USD 77.4%

0.55M

0.5%

5.22M

421K

6:45pm Industrial Production m/m USD 0.8%

5.10M

434K

17th-22nd Mortgage Delinquencies USD 8.22%

8:00pm

11:30pmCrude Oil Inventories

FOMC Meeting Minutes

USD

USD

Wed May 18

3.8M

6:00pm

7:30pm

Unemployment Claims

Existing Home Sales

USD

USD

Thu May 19

20.3 18.57:30pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index USD

0.2% 0.4%7:30pm CB Leading Index m/m USD

70B8:00pm Natural Gas Storage USD

11:00pm FOMC Member Evans Speaks USD



Fundamental Market Overview


Gold fell on Friday, sharply reversing early gains, as a dollar surge against the euro and renewed uncertainty about euro zone debt prompted investors to

sell ahead of the weekend. Silver continued to recover from last week's 25 percent correction, and technical charts suggested the metal could stabilize

after bouncing off a key support level. Spot Gold fell 0.7 percent to $1,492.50 an ounce by, having earlier risen as high as $1,516.40. U.S. Gold futures for

June delivery settled down $13.20 at $1,493.60, after trading in a range from $1,482 to $1,516.40. For the week, Gold was flat after shedding nearly 5

percent last week during a commodity rout. Money managers cut bullish bets in COMEX Silver futures and options to the lowest level since January, as prices tumbled as much as 30 percent from a

record high near $50 an ounce, and they also slashed net longs in Gold during the period, U.S. regulator data showed. Gold was pressured as the U.S.

dollar scaled six-week peaks against the euro as concerns about the global economy spurred a return to the greenback's safety. Precious metals have

been pressured by worries about dollar strength, ahead of a meeting of Euro group finance ministers, followed by an Ecofin meeting of EU financeministers on Monday, which could provide further direction to the euro. The single currency is likely to remain under pressure until at least after investors

digest any outcome.

SILVER FINDS CHART SUPPORTSilver was up 1.2 percent at $34.62 an ounce. It still lost about 1.5 percent for the week after notching its worst weekly performance since 1980 last week.

Silver had lost as much as 30 percent from its record high of $49.51 an ounce set on April 28. Silver was still up 13 percent this year, and it was also the

top performer in the commodity complex with a 90 percent gain in 2010. The largest Silver ETF, the iShares Silver Trust, reported its holdings slipped

another 24.3 tonnes on Thursday. Although Silver is outperforming other precious metals on Friday, it is expected to suffer further losses.

GOLD DROPS 1 PCT ON DOLLAR SURGE, SILVER UP

NYMEX-CRUDE SKIDS FIFTH DAY, POSTS RECORD WEEKLY LOSS

Weekly Report

Commodity


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U.S. Crude oil futures slumped for a fifth day on Friday, ending with the biggest weekly loss in dollar terms since oil trading began on the New York

Mercantile Exchange in 1983, as a stronger dollar prompted investors to continue trimming oil bets. The extended sell-off in an extremely volatile day

snuffed out gains made after early data showed U.S. companies created jobs at the fastest pace in five years last month. However, the unemployment raterose to 9 percent, from 8.8 percent, up for the first time in five months. Oil demand worries continued to pressure the market, after recent data showed a

slowdown in quarterly economic growth and government data midweek which showed gasoline demand down 1.9 percent from a year ago.

FUNDAMENTALS

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for June delivery settled at $97.18 a barrel, down $2.62, or 2.63 percent, after trading from $94.63 to

$102.38. For the week, front-month Crude ended down $16.75, or 14.70 percent, the biggest ever drop for a week in dollar terms. In percentage terms,

the week's loss was the biggest since the week to Dec. 19, 2008, when price fell 26.8 percent.

UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS

U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly inventory data, Wednesday, 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT)

COPPER RIDES WAVE OF ECON CONFIDENCE TO FIRM CLOSE

Copper finished firm on Friday, reacting to upbeat data from the United States and Europe that helped restore some market confidence and economic

recovery optimism. Still, it was an extremely volatile week for the industrial metal, with prices plumbing five-month lows, as investors moved back and

forth between 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' trades due to lingering concerns about subdued Chinese demand patterns, a resurgent dollar, and the increasingly

violent swings in markets like Silver and Crude oil. "Copper has benefited from the very positive data, but unfortunately it is going to be susceptible to

further downside risk based on further liquidation of the short-dollar, long commodity trade." London Metal Exchange (LME) Copper for three-month

delivery closed up $65 at $8,790 a tonne. Despite the positive finish, prices shed over 5 percent on the week for a second-straight weekly decline.In New York, the July COMEX Copper contract rose 1.30 cents to settle at $3.9835 per lb, but remained pinned beneath its 200-day moving average at

around $4.01. With prices under pressure, open interest in COMEX Copper continued to erode from its January peak, falling nearly 30 percent to its

lowest since October 2009.A stronger U.S. dollar makes commodities such as metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Even with this week's increased market

volatility, Europe's No.2 Copper producer, , expects Copper prices to average $8,000-$9,000 per tonne this year.

DEMAND SIGNALS

Copper demand from China is likely to remain strong despite the country's moves to slow growth to control inflation, the CEO of top European Copper

producer said. China hiked its bank reserve requirement ratio yet again on Thursday, signaling that containing inflation and soaking up excess cash

remained its top priority even after signs the economy was slowing down.Stocks of Copper in LME warehouses rose 800 tonnes to 468,525 tonnes, nearly 35 percent above levels seen early in December, latest data showed.



GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold neither sustain on higher level

nor at lower level. In the coming week 1445$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1520 $ an ounce then above 1528 $ an ounce it can touch the

level of 1542$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1460$ then it can slightly

correct and test the level of 1440$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above

1520 $ an ounce, then above 1528$ it can test the level of 1542 $ an ounce and above

1550$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses. Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1450$ and 1410$. Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1580$ and 1625$ Major support in MCX Gold is 21600 and 21200 Major resistance in MCX Gold is 22450 and 23050

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically weak on charts. Last week COMEX Silver c neither sustain onhigher level nor at lower level. For the upcoming week 3200$ and 3000$ are the crucial

supports and 4000$ and 4250 $ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver

61000 and 64000 will act as major resistance and 49000 and 46000 will act as major

supports.

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is weak on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on lower

level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3200$ an ounce, then above 3700$ an

ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 3850$ an ounce. Trade by keeping

the proper stop losses.

Strategy

1597 1548 1521 1499 1450 1400

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1280

Script

Levels

4993 4276 3888 3559 3171 2842


2125

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1



CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil neither sustain on higher level nor

at lower level. For the coming week 94$ and 88$ will act as major supports and 106.50 $and 109.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major

resistance is found at 4700 and 5000 and major supports will be 4200 and 4000.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains

above the level of 94 $ a barrel then above 102.5$ it can slightly come up and touch the

level of 105 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4600 Crude oil can touch the level of 4700 if it

sustains above 4200. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lowerlevels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week and on the last two days

it bounced back. If next week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 390 then above

the level of 406 Copper can test the level of 412. In MCX Copper above 405 Copper can test

the level of 412 if it does not break the level of 390 on the downside

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 435 and 437 will act as major resistance and 380 and 370 will act as

major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 425 and 437

and supports would be found at 380 and 360.

Strategy

118 109 104 99 95 90


81

Script

Levels

443.50 420.40 409.40 397.40 386.30 374.30


351.20

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1



NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on

higher levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week. If next week Natural Gas sustains above the level of 4.300 $ then above the level of 4.350$ Natural Gas

can test the level of 4.450 $ and below 4.100 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test

the level of 3.900 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 190 in the coming week then it

can test the level of 197, if it does not break the level of 183 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 4.050$ and 3.650 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and

5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance

would be 210 and 220, supports would be found at 183 and 172.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lowerlevels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.4000 then above the level of

45.0500 USD/INR can test the level of 45.2500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go

down and test the level of 43.6000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and

46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

4.593 4.405 4.326 4.217 4.138 4.029


3.841

Script

Levels

45.8200 45.3200 45.0900 44.8200 44.5900 44.3200


43.8200

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis


Weekly Report

Commodity


1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1



WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1493.6 0.13

SILVER 3501.3 -0.78

COPPER 398.35 0.20

CRUDE 99.65 2.54

NATURAL GAS 4.246 0.26

USD/INR 44.86 0.31

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

SILVER 05 –JUL - 11 53716 -2.19

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21880 21930 2171022280 21961 181787 11949 3953464.3481

Silver MCX 5-JUL -11 Silver RS./ KG. 54919 55305 4975159976 53716 645036 13094 10582649.21-1203

Copper MCX 19-MAY -11 Copper RS./ KG. 399.9 400.9 386.8408.3 401.6 544684 22214 2162344.351.7

Crude Oil MCX 19-MAY -11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4416 4420 42924674 4467 923871 9244 4129080.9951

Natural Gas MCX 25-MAY -11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 192.6 192.5 185.6193.4 191.4 78502 3748 183474.23-1.2

Lead MCX 31-MAY -11 Lead RS./ KG. 104.75 105.75 100.5106.75 103.9 76683 3886 396430.35-0.85

Zinc MCX 31-MAY -11 Zinc RS./ KG. 96.8 97.4 93.6598.85 97.8 94276 7521 453473.671

Aluminum MCX 31-MAY -11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 116.7 117.3 115118.85 116.15 22413 -0.55 2825 130556.56

Nickel MCX 31-MAY -11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1110.9 1115 1073.51127.4 1108 231139 5610 636258.74-2.9

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

CRUDE OIL 19 –MAY-11 4467 1.16

Weekly Market Update


*

* Turnover Till Friday

ZINC 31 –MAY-11 97.80 1.03

Weekly Report

Commodity


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COPPER 30 –JUN-11 401.60 0.43

LEAD 31 –MAY-11 103.90 -0.81

NATURAL GAS 25 –MAY-11 191.40 -0.62



Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

23124.33

74931.67

441.87

5240.33

205.73

116.20

107.13

1210.73

124.35

22554.33

64706.67

420.37

4858.33

197.93

109.95

101.93

1156.83

120.50

21984.33

54481.67

398.87

4476.33

190.13

103.70

96.73

1102.93

116.65

21688.67

48987.33

389.43

4278.67

186.87

100.65

94.62

1078.47

114.45

21414.33

44256.67

418.97

4094.33

182.33

97.45

91.53

1049.03

112.80

20844.33

34031.67

355.87

3712.33

174.53

91.20

86.33

995.13

108.95

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Weekly Pivots

R1

22258.67

59212.33

410.93

4660.67

194.67

106.90

99.82

1132.37

118.30

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Weekly Report

Commodity 1 6 t h M a y - 2 1 s t M a y 2 0 1 1

Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)

Documents

Transcript of Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (16th - 20th May '11)