April 11-13, 2007

Thomas Karl

Climate Working Group

Climate Observations & Analysis Program Review

Climate Assessments

1

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Outline

Climate Assessments - Overview

Recent and Ongoing Assessments– Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)

CCSP 1.1 – Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere CCSP 3.3 – Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing

Climate

– International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)2007 Release

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COA (& precursors) have partnered in producing major assessment reports:

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1990, 92, 95, 2001, 2007

• Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) 1.1 (2006), 3.3 (2008)

• The U.S. National Assessment

• Monthly, seasonal, and annual reports on the “State of the Climate”

OverviewClimate Assessment

Scientific assessments of climate variability and change are critical

in establishing the state of the science for policy makers

and the general public

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The CCSP Strategic Plan calls for the creation of 21 Synthesis and Assessment (SAP) reports organized around 5 Scientific Goals

COA involvement– Leading two SAPs:

1.1Temperature Trends; 3.3 Weather and Climate Extremes

– Participation in three SAPs Paleoclimate, Climate Change &Transportation, Uncertainty

– Providing Technical support for NOAA led SAPs

Climate Change Science ProgramOverview

Integrating federal research on global change and climate change

• SAPs are intended to support informed discussion & decision-making by policy makers, resource managers, stakeholders, the media, & the general public

• Abstracts & Executive Summary are accessible to High School graduate level understanding

• Chapters are written to the complexity of Scientific American or similar magazines.

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Climate Change Science Program

Assessment 1.1 published in April 2006

Objective – An understanding of:• Temperature changes in the atmosphere

• Differences in these changes at various levels in the atmosphere

• The causes of these changes & differences

Key Highlights:• Global-average warming in the atmosphere now

similar to warming observed at the surface

• Fundamental change from earlier findings (US-NRC and IPCC reports)

• Findings also consistent with results obtained from models (though discrepancies remain in the tropics)

• Increased confidence in understanding of observed climate change/causes and increased confidence in climate model results

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CCSP 3.3 - Weather & Climate ExtremesMotivation

BUT…– No specific IPCC

assessment on weather & climate extremes across N.A., Hawaii, and U.S. territories

AND…– N.A observing systems are

among the best in the world

– N.A. weather & climate extremes are some of the most notable occurring across the globe.

IPCC assessments evaluated weather & climate extreme on a global basis– Considered both observed and projected changes in climate. – A gradually warming world will be accompanied by changes in the variability

and frequency of weather and climate extremes.

U.S. experienced 70 weather/climate disasters from 1980-2006 that were > $1 billion

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CCSP 3.3 - Weather & Climate Extremes

Overview of Report

Objective: – An understanding of:• Changes in weather and climate extremes as

related to their intensity or frequency, and likely future evolution

• Weather extremes: Unusual in their occurrence or have destructive potential, such as torrential rainfall, hurricanes, severe winter storms, heat waves, etc.

• Climate extremes: Represent the same events, as above but viewed over many seasons, decades, or longer

Regions of Focus: • North America • Caribbean • Hawaii and U.S. Pacific islands

To be published June 2008

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Preface --- T. Karl, C. Miller, W. Murray Executive Summary ---

CLA: T. Karl & J. MeehlLAs: T. Peterson, K. Kunkel, W. Gutowski, D. Easterling

Scientific Ed: S. Hassol, C. Miller, W. Murray

Chapter 1 --- Why weather and climate extremes matter

CLAs: T. PetersonLAs: D. Anderson, S. Cohen, M. Cortez, R.

Murnane, C. Parmesan, D. Phillips, R. Pulwarty, J. Stone

Chapter 2 --- Observed Changes of Weather and Climate Extremes

CLA: K. KunkelLAs: P. Bromirski, H. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.

Douglas, D. Easterling, K. Emanuel, P. Groisman, G. Holland, T. Knutson, P. Komar, D. Levinson, T. Peterson, R.

Smith

CCSP 3.3 Chapter Titles and Authors

Chapter 3 --- How well do we understand the causes of observed changes in extremes, and what are the projected future changes?

CLA: W. Gutowski, Jr.LAs: G. Hegerl, .G.. Holland, T. Knutson, L. Mearns, R.  Stouffer, P. Webster, F. Zwiers, T. Peterson

Chapter 4 --- Recommendations for Improving our Understanding

CLA: D. EasterlingLAs: D. Anderson, W. Gutowski, Jr., K.

Kunkel, T. Peterson Glossary --- A. Waple Graphics, Ass’t Scientific Ed., & Tech.

Ed. S. Veasey, A. Waple, A. Markel.

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CCSP 3.3 Milestones

Remaining SAP milestones beginning in 2007 Draft Synthesis Product submitted to NRC for review – Feb 07

Receive NRC comments – Jun 07

FACA meeting (Aspen) – Jun 07

Revised SAP 3.3 posted for Public comments – Aug 07

Public comments received – Oct 07

Revised SAP 3.3 submitted to CCSP principals (interagency) – Dec 07

SAP 3.3 submitted to NSTC - Jan 08

SAP 3.3 posted to web site (with response to all comments) Mar 08

SAP 3.3 printed version available Jun 08

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

2007 AssessmentCOA Funded Authors

Chapter 1 --- Historical Overview of Climate Change Science

LA: T. Peterson

CAs: M. Allen*, G. Hegerl*, B. Santer*, K. Taylor*, K. Trenberth*

Chapter 3 --- Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change LAs: D. Easterling, B. Soden*

CAs: B. Gleason, J. Lawrimore, D. Levinson, R. Vose D. Wuertz, J. Christy*, A. Dai*, M. Free*, P. Groisman*, K. Kunkel*, J. Lanzante*, C. Mears*, E. Chang*, M. Free, K. Rosenlof, S. Sherwood*

Review Ed.: T. Karl

Chapter 4 --- Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice, and Frozen GroundCA: D. Robinson*

Chapter 5 --- Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea LevelLA: S. Levitus

CA: R. Feely*

Chapter 6 ---- Paleoclimate

CAs: E. Cook*, H. Pollack*, J. Overpeck*, J. Cole*, L. Stott*, L.

Thompson**

*non NOAA

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Questions

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CCSP Scientific Goals

Goal 1: Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change. (3 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

Goal 2: Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems. (4 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

Goal 3: Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and related systems may change in the future. (4 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

Goal 4: Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes. (7 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

Goal 5: Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change. (3 Synthesis & Assessment Products)

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Technical support for all CCSP reports NCDC to produce eight NOAA-led CCSP Reports

COA is providing graphics, editing, layout, and printing for all NOAA-led CCSP reports.

Contract team formed in November 2006