Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTCPlanning Committee

April 13, 2007

CommissionersMary Peters Secretary of Transportation — ChairpersonJack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice ChairFrank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of TransportationMaria Cino Deputy Secretary of TransportationRick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell UniversitySteve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation CommissionFrank McArdle General Contractors Association of New YorkSteve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office DepotPatrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking AssociationMatt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe RailroadTom Skancke CEO, The Skancke CompanyPaul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation

Statutory Mandate• Study current condition and future needs of

surface transportation system• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway

Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax

• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons

• Report to Congress by January 1,2008

Field Hearings• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX• November 15–16, 2006 New York, NY

Memphis, TN• February 21–22, 2007 Los Angeles, CA

Atlanta, GA• March 19, 2007 Washington, DC

• April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, ILMinneapolis, MN

System Maintenance

89% 91% 91% 91%

39%48% 50% 52%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1997 2000 2002 2004

AcceptableGood

Pavement Ride QualityNational Highway System for 2004

Source: U.S. DOT

Bridge Conditions

13.1%13.7%

14.8%16.0%

17.4%18.7%

13.6%

13.8% 14.0% 13.6% 13.8%

13.8%

26.7%27.5%28.5%29.6%

31.4%32.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Year

Structurally DeficientFunctionally ObsoleteTotal Deficiencies

Bridge Deficiency Percentages

Source: U.S. DOT

Transit System Conditions

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 1997 2000 2002 2004

Bus VehiclesRail Vehicles

RATI

NG (1

= Po

or, 5

= E

xcell

ent)

Source: U.S. DOT

3.48 3.38 3.47 3.50

2.88 2.94 3.05 3.07 3.08

3.42

Traffic Congestion

Highway Operational PerformancePercent VMT Under Congested Conditions

25.9% 27.5%29.6% 30.7% 31.6%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

1995 1997 2000 2002 2004Source: U.S. DOT

In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually

Source: Texas Transportation Institute

Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode.

Motorbus Heavy Rail

CommuterRail

LightRail

DemandResponse

Vanpool Ferryboat0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Source: U.S. DOT

Growth in Transit Ridership23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to

2004

Safety

U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities

Per 100 Million VMT

Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004

Safety: Transit FatalitiesFatalities per 100 Million

PMT

0.50.550.6

0.650.7

0.750.8

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode

248 Total Transit

Fatalities in 2004

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

Motorbus Heavy Rail

CommuterRail

Light RailSource: U.S. DOT

Source: U.S. DOT

Freight

1,4376,165

(TEUs in thousands)

20202004

Houston

13,101

LA/LB1,0102,15

2Miami

2,0433,382

Oakland

4,478

15,835

NY/NJ

1,8095,566

Virginia

1,8606,639

Charleston

1,662

9,420

Savannah

1,7984,396

Tacoma

1,776 2,557

Seattle

59,420

Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression

Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime TradeVolume of trade: 2004 and 2020

Source: U.S. DOTv

Truck Rail Water Air Total

More trade means more domesticfreight movements…

West region +65%

South region +71%

Central

region +71%

Northeast region +58%

U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020

U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020

20202000

% change 2000-2020

62% 44% 39% 181% 57%

10,700

17,296

2,009

2,891

1,0541,470

13,772

21,682

925

Source: U.S. DOT

(tons in millions)

Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4% 1%

9%3% 2% 0%

7%3% 1%

40%

74%67%

16%

40%

6%<1%<1%

6%2%

13%

3%

Tons Value Ton-Miles

Perc

ent

s

TruckRailWaterAirPipeline

Multiple ModesOther/Unknown Modes

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.

Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value

commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned

Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads

Rail Network TodayToday’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a

core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design

Fuel Efficiency(“Energy Independence”)

Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration

Hor

sepo

wer

1975

1976

19771978

1979

1980

1997 19961995

1994 19931992 1991

1990 198919881987

1986

19851984

19831982

1981

1998

2004

2003200220012000

1999

230

210

190

170

150

130

110

00 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Miles per Gallon

59 percent more energy performance

52 percentmore output

U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles

1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG

International Fuel Economy Comparison

Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles

Sour

ce: U

C Be

rkel

ey

What’s Broken?

Environmental Impact StatementProcessing Time (FY 1998–2006)

Source: FHWA

Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process

Source: Holland & Knight

Finance

Highway Account Cash Balance

Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections

Mass Transit Account Cash Balance

Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections

Year

600

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year

Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015)(through 2015)

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Year

-of-E

xpen

ditu

re D

olla

rs (i

n Bi

llion

s)

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year

Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015)(through 2015) Revenue

Cost toMaintain

Cost toImprove

National Funding Gap

Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding…

18.3

16.2

14.0

12.2

5

10

15

20

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Cen

ts p

er G

allo

n

201020082006200420022000199819961994

Source: AASHTO

Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years

* Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed

…While Construction Costs Are Increasing

State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum

Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax

State

Cents per Gallon

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

NY CT MI NV FL RI IN OH ME WV ID OR SD MD ND MN IA NH DC TX VI MS NM OK NJ AK

CA IL WI PA HI WA NC MT NE GA KS UT MA DE CO AR TN AL LA VT AZ KY MO SC WY

Excise MFTAdditional MFT

Source: American Petroleum Institute

As of April 2006

Recent Public Private Partnerships

Source: Public Works Financing

Project LocationIntermodal Projects in GreenHighway Projects in BlueTransit Projects in Yellow

Reno RailCorridor

SR 125Toll Road

-Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line

Chicago SkywayAsset Sale

Dulles Greenway

Miami Intermodal Center

Central TexasTurnpike

PocahontasParkway

Camden Trenton Light Rail Line

San Joaquin HillsToll Road

Foothill EasternToll Road

Alameda Corridor

-Trans TexasCorridor

Denver E-470NorthwestParkway

NM 44 (US 550)

Southern Connector

Hiawatha Light Rail Line

Jamaica JFK Airtrain

Tacoma NarrowsBridge

Osceola Parkway

Las Vegas Monorail

I-15 Reconstruction

AZ-17

Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale

CREATE

For More Information:

www.transportationfortomorrow.org