Simulated Stratospheric Temperature Trends

SPARC Temperature Trends Meeting: April 13, 2007 Washington DC.

• Coupled Chemistry Climate Model Simulations of Stratospheric Temperature

J. Austin, P. Forster, J. Wilson, S. Bekki, N. Butchard, M. Chipperfield, C. Claud, R.Garcia, N. Gellett, M. Giorgetta, P. Keckhut, D. Kinnison, U. Langematz, E. Manzini, C. Mears, A. Miller, T. Nagasima, J. Nash, S. Pwosn, W.J. Randel., E. Rozanov, T.G.Shepherd, K. Shibata, K.P. Shine, D. Seidel, H. Struthers, D. Thompson, and S. Yoden

Manuscript in preparation:

AMTRAC 3 x 1960-2004

CCSRNIES 1980-2004

CMAM 1960-2004

GEOSCCM 1960-2003

LMDZepro 1979-1999

MAECHAM-4CHEM 1980-1999

MRI 1980-2004

SOCOL 1980-2004

UMETRAC 1980-1999

UMSLIMCAT 1980-1999

WACCM 3 x 1950-2003

Participating Models: CCMval model intercomparison

Eyring et al. 2006: Assessment of temperature, trace species and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res. 111, D22308, doi:10.0129/2006JD007327.

A(t)= ao + a1t + a2 + a3F10.7 + (t)

Averaged Monthly fields: A(t)

is aerosol surface area: (tropics at 60hPa)

Fig. 1: Annually & Globally Averaged Temperature

--- UKMO Data Assimilation

--- UKMO Data Assimilation

Annually-averaged trends:

1960-1979

K/decade

0.25 K contour interval

Shading: 95% confidence level

Annually-averaged trends: 1980-1999

Fig. 5

Global, Annual Averaged Temperature Anomaly

(referenced to 1980)

Vertically-Weighted Global Average Temperature

Fig. 6

- MSU/SSU (1980-1997)

Fig. 7

Solar Cycle

0.5 K/100 units 10.7 cm flux 0.7 K for solar

Aerosols

Surface area density:

Typical eruption: 1.5e-7 cm2/cm3 1 K

Figure 9

Time Series of Arctic Temperatures60-90°N (Feb-April)

11 year running avg.

Arctic Temperature Trends

Time Series of Antarctic Temperatures

60-90°S (Sept-Nov)

11 year running avg.

Antarctic Temperature Trends