Addis Ababa’s New Periphery

Robin Bloch and Matthew Crighton

ICF International

Spotlight on Istanbul: Building and Rebuilding the Periphery

December 10-12 2015

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Background on Ethiopia

Second most populous country in Africa – now 99m - and growing rapidly at 3% pa (implies 200m population by 2045)

On the cusp of the transition between rural and urban

One of the fastest growing economies in the world…rates around 11% pa this century

…but still one of the poorest. GDP per capita of just $550 (Africa average is $1,700)

Current government took power in 1991 after long civil war – and is characterised as a “developmental state”

The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and its allies won all 547 seats in the 2015 election

Ethiopia is divided into nine ethno-linguistically based regional states and two chartered cities (Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa).

Recent progress in development goals and optimism for the future – huge ambition (influence of Chinese ‘model’ important)

GoE aims to achieve lower middle income status ($1,560 per capita) by 2025 through implementing national development strategy (Growth and Transformation Plans (GTP II and III)

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Regional states and cities and towns

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Urbanisation trends and the urban system

Urban population has increased from 9.8m (15%) in 2000 to 18.5m (19%) in 2014 and will (likely) reach 47m by 2037 (35%) – an increase of more than 1.5m each year

Still significant deficits in housing, infrastructure, services, particularly in secondary and smaller cities: e.g., Adama (pop 324,000), Gondar (324,000), Mek'ele (324,000), and Hawassa (302,000)

High levels of urban poverty and unemployment (20-25%)

Government response led by Urban Local Government Program (ULGDP) with performance-based grants for infrastructure and services

Increasing activity by Ministry of Urban Development and Housing (MUD&H) around urban research and analysis, policy formulation (e.g. National Urban Spatial Plan) and an urban development program (Ethiopian Cities Sustainable Prosperity Goals) to complement and operationalise GTP II and III

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The imperative for industrialisation

To achieve middle-income status by 2025, economy must continue to grow at more than 10% annually

Working age population increased from 33m in 2005 to 53m in 2015…to 82m by 2030

Majority of population still employed in agriculture (77%)…while manufacturing accounts for just 4.7% -- the plan is to increase it to 20% by 2025 to drive a “structural transformation”

Manufacturing GVA remained constant at 4.3% of total from 1999-2013

Therefore key emphasis on conjoined urbanisation and industrialisation thrust: towns and cities as engines of growth – but also modernisation – and making a coherent linkage between ‘urban’ and ‘rural’

Operationalised through investment in 10 key sectors, 5 large-scale industrial parks (20m square metres), linked by transportation corridors

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Addis Ababa

Capital, commercial and industrial centre: primacy in urban system

Rapidly growing population – 3.7m in 2015 (4.6m in metropolitan area), 5m in 2025, 6.4m in 2035

High degree of primacy (0.79) – next three largest cities all 325,000

Majority of the population living in informal settlements – around 70% in ‘slums’

“One big construction site”: dynamism, flux, a harsh, tough urban milieu – and large aspirations for the city’s rise to continental/regional prominence

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New real estate construction in Addis Ababa

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Informal settlements in Addis Ababa

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Drivers of suburbanisation – condominium housing programme

Since 2005 Ethiopia has been implementing an ambitious government-led low- and middle-income housing programme: The Integrated Housing Development Programme (IHDP).

Facilitated by state ownership of land and land leasing system

Original target to build 360,000 condominium units nationwide; 244,436 were completed, 170,000 in Addis Ababa.

New target to build 50,000 every year in Addis Ababa only.

Developments between 2005-2010 were focused on the periphery of the city, though focus has now shifted also to include slum upgrading and inner-city redevelopment.

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Condominium housing programme, continued

10% of each condominium site is allocated for commercial purposes – shops, restaurants, pharmacies etc. in addition to communal areas for traditional practices

Allocation is via lottery; around a million registrations.

Studio and 1-bed apartments sold below cost, 2-bed and 3-bed above cost in order to cross-subsidize lower income households.

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Condominium housing programme

Condominium housing on the periphery of Addis Ababa (South towards Adama)

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Investment in infrastructure

Investment in infrastructure in Ethiopia has been driving growth over the past decade.

Inward investment is among the highest in the world relative to GDP.

However, $5.1bn annual investment in infrastructure still required.

Connective infrastructure in and around Addis is of a very high standard, compared to other cities in sub-Saharan Africa.

This connective infrastructure is helping to reshape the periphery.

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$475m Chinese built urban light-rail

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Railway linking Addis Ababa to Adama and Djibouti ($2.4bn)

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Addis-Adama expressway

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De-concentration of economic activity: commercial phase

Commercial developments in the east and south-east around Bole airport…

Followed the development of infrastructure…

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De-concentration of economic activity: commercial phase

And then at Bole Summit, alongside new light manufacturing development.

And were accompanied by new condominium developments, first at Bole Gerji…

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De-concentration of economic activity: industrial phase

This time in tandem with Chinese led investment…

The second phase is occurring along the southern transport corridor …

Gateway to the Eastern Industry Zone

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De-concentration of economic activity: industrial phase

More than 10,000 of which were just transferred in March 2015.

Once again accompanied by new condominium developments…

EIZ

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Future: Addis Ababa – Adama industrial corridor

EIZ

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Future: Addis Ababa – Adama industrial corridor

New factory and men sorting rebar with railway in the background (‘old’ road between Adama and Addis)

Containers waiting to be loaded at the Mojo dry port (10km North-West of Adama)

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Conclusion

New urban-industrial growth ensemble on Addis periphery: designed fusion/mix of service, retail, commercial, industrial and residential functions and land uses – which, if supported by well-executed transportation and urban infrastructure, takes a corridor spatial form

These new developments have created new hubs/centres of employment and residence, and have (and will continue to) shift economic activity away from the traditional city core – the creation of a Addis city-region can ensue

Challenges with political and administrative coordination between Addis Ababa city and Oromia state governments – important issues and protests around relocation and land expropriation

In conclusion:– (1) In Ethiopia, as elsewhere, there is the need to understand spatial expansion and peripheral development, incl.

various suburbanisms, as a multi-faceted process involving different land uses/spaces – not only residential, which is often the analytical focus

– (2) Peripheral development is driven by very large economic, social and political dynamics (accumulation, urbanisation, economic growth, changing social configurations (class), and political imperatives which are often poorly understood – arguably, bolder, wider research strategies are needed

– (3) The role and dynamics of the (in this case, developmental) state (as in local, regional and national government) needs to be critically understood, (rather than just criticised), and engaged with (if you want to move beyond criticism)