2017 September GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

GRAYREPORTSDemand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through September 2017

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Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement RatesStudent Demand

Demographics

Wages

Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation

System

§ Program profiles

§ Program development

§ City targeting

§ Location selection

§ Campus consolidation

§ Price elasticity

§ Price positioning

§ Price optimization

§ Business strategy

§ Strategy implementation

§ Acquisition analysis

§ Complex analytics

Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Enhanced Crosswalks




Agenda

1. Student Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Searches

1. National

2. Online and On-Campus

3. Degree Level

4. City and Program

2. IPEDS 2017 Update (2016 Data)

3. Program of the Month: Graphic Designers

4. Summary




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Total inquiry volumes have been declining for several years.§ Declining unemployment rate

§ Falling interest in post-secondary education

§ Marketers shifting away from paid inquiries




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


Inquiries fell faster this year, average monthly volume is off by 11% year-over-year.

-11%




0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


September volume is consistent with the average, dropping 11% this year.

-11%




Conversion Maturity

It takes six months for inquiries to “mature.”

§ 60% of conversions take place in the month in which the inquiry is received.

§ It takes six months for 95% of conversions to take place.

-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

10%

Month 1 January

Month 2 February

Month 3 March

Month 4 April

Month 5 May

Month 6 June

Month 7 July

Month 8 August

Month 9 September

Conversion of 2017 January InquiriesVersus 2016 January Conversions

60%

78% 87% 90% 89%

95% 97% 99% 100%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Percentage of Conversions

Months After Inquiry

Inquiries: Time to MaturityConversions of January 2017 Inquiries




80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Q4 2016

Q1 2017

Q2 2017

Q3 2017

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends(Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2017, conversion rates are well above our 2014 baseline.§ Q2 2017 beat the baseline by 27%.

§ Despite being immature, Q3 2017 is already 27% above the baseline.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2. Total includes unknown source type.

+27%




Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For June inquiries, total conversions increased 6% year-over-year.§ July and August 2017 have already reached 2016 levels.

§ September is likely to pass last year by 5% or more.

1. Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000


Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

+6% YoY

Immature Months1




Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.752016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.492017 $45.39 $45.30 $45.50 $45.36 $45.51 $45.76 $45.19 $44.61 $45.29 $- $- $-

$30$32$34$36$38$40$42$44$46$48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

After dropping below $45 in August, the average price of an external inquiry is above $45.§ In September, prices were nearly flat year-over-year.

§ September is still the second lowest price this year.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+0.3%




Student Inquiries: 10 Largest Inquiry Budgets

1.0

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Business Administration (Bach.+)

Business Administration (Assoc.-)

Psychology, General

Health Care Administration

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

Graphic Design

Registered Nursing

10 Largest Inquiry Budgets(September 2017)

Medical Assisting continues to have the highest spending on inquiries.

Index to Max




Student Inquiries: Budget Spending for 10 Largest Programs

-1% -8%

-10% -18%

-25% -29% -29%

-45% -52%

-66%

-70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

Graphic Design

Health Care Administration

Medical Insurance Specialist/Medical Biller

Psychology, General

HVAC Maintenance Technology

Medical/Clinical Assistant

Business Administration (Bach.+)

Registered Nursing

Business Administration (Assoc.-)

Medical Office Assistant/Specialist

September 2017 Inquiry Budget Trends10 Programs With the Largest Budgets

§ The program with the largest budget, Medical Assisting, decreased 29% YoY.

Spending decreased in all 10 of the programs with the largest budgets.

% Change YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiries for Online Programs

Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent ChangeInquiries for online programs shrank 4% year-over-year in September.§ After strong growth in online to start the year, this is third consecutive monthly decline.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017-4% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 89% in June.§ This is the 11th consecutive increase in conversions.

§ July and August have already grown compared to last year.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+89% YoY

Immature Months1




Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

In 2017, inquiries for on-campus academic programs continued their decline.

§ In September, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 21% year-over-year.

2012

050,000

100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-21% YoY




Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 17% year-over-year in June.§ This marks the tenth consecutive month of declining conversions.

§ But, July and August might reach last year’s levels.

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-17% YOY1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Year-Over-Year Change

Doctoral degrees were the fastest-growing degree level.§ Master’s and Bachelor’s shrank 1% and 2%, but outperformed lower-level degrees.

-23%

-14%

-2%

-1%

14%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Associate's degree

Undergraduate certificate

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Change in InquiriesSeptember 2017 YoY




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

One of The Big 5 Cities grew year-over-year.§ Los Angeles increased 8% in September.

§ Houston replaced Atlanta on the list this month.

-36%

-9%

-20%

-5%

-28%

8%

-8% -11% -12%

-22%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Houston, TX Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL

Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.




The Big 5 Programs: September Growth

All of The Big 5 Programs fell 30% or more in September.

-30% -36%

-43% -46%

-53% -60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Medical Assistant Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Criminal Justice Business Admin: Associate's

Registered Nursing

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change




-80% -80%

-73% -72% -72%

-100%

-50%

Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal

Studies.

Curriculum and Instruction.

Computer and Information Sciences,

General.

Health Information/Medical

Records Technology/Technician.

Construction Management.

The Slow 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 70%.

§ Curriculum and Instruction and Construction Management are the only repeats from last month.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




51%

26% 15% 10%

-5%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

Accounting and Business/Management

Health Services Administration

Graphic Design Hospitality Administration

Entrepreneurship

The Fast 5 ProgramsYear-over-Year Change in September Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

Growth for the five fastest growing programs1 was uninspiring.§ Accounting and Business Management and Hospitality Administration are both repeats from last month.

§ In this challenging month, Entrepreneurship made the list, despite a 5% decline.

1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




IPEDS Completions: 10 Largest Programs

251,393

167,171

138,794

116,238

114,222

94,220

81,959

81,607

75,893

64,996

0 100,000 200,000 300,000

Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies - A

Business Administration, General - B

Registered Nursing - B

Business Administration, General. - M

Psychology, General - B

General Studies - A

Business Administration, General - A

Registered Nursing - A

Biology/Biological Sciences, General - B

Medical/Clinical Assistant - UC

10 Largest Programs(2016 Completions)

The Liberal Arts and Sciences Associate’s degree had the most completions in 2016.

Index to Max




IPEDS Completions: 10 Fastest-growing Program Groups1

56% 51%

42% 27% 27%

25% 24% 23% 22%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Liberal Arts & Sciences, General Studies & Humanities -PBC

Communication, Journalism, & Related Programs - PBC

Biological & Biomedical Sciences - UC

Computer & Information Sciences & Support Services - M

Liberal Arts & Sciences, General Studies & Humanities -UC

History - A

English Language & Literature/Letters - UC

Bus., Mgmt., Marketing, & Related Support Services - PMC

Psychology - A

Social Sciences - PBC

Year-Over-Year Change in Completions(2016/2015)

Surprisingly, Liberal Arts programs staged a comeback in 2016.

% Change YoY1. Includes 2-digit CIP groups by award level with at least 400 completions.




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program



4. Summary




Graphic Designers: Job Postings

In recent years, Job Postings for Graphic Designers have been volatile.

27,577

38,784

28,354

46,788

41,460

23,961

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD

Job Postings

Job PostingsGraphic Designers

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. October 1, 2016-September 30, 2017SOCs: Graphic Designers (27-1024) was used in this analysis.




Graphic Designers: Salary

Salaries are typically less than $75,000 for Graphic Designers.

1,030

1,959

1,928

847

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Less than $35,000

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

More than $75,000

Salary Distribution (Advertised)

§ The mean salary is $54,000.

§ The median salary is $49,000.

Note: Most job postings do not include salary data.

Number of Postings Citing the Salary Level





Graphic Designers: Education (Minimum Advertised)

Among job postings that specify education, 78% of Graphic Designer job postings cite a Bachelor’s degree.

10%

10%

78%

2%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

High school or vocational training

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Master's degree

Doctoral degree

Most Frequently Cited Education (Minimum Advertised)





Graphic Designers: Job Titles

Graphic Designer is by far the most common title in this field.

Job Titles Count % to TotalGraphicDesigner 16,932 57.86%VisualDesigner 3,004 10.26%ProductionArtist 1,996 6.82%GraphicArtist 1,480 5.06%JuniorGraphicDesigner 673 2.30%ProductionManager 249 0.85%FreelanceGraphicDesigner 197 0.67%CreativeDesigner 138 0.47%GraphicSpecialist 114 0.39%VisualInformationSpecialist 112 0.38%

Total 29,276





Graphic Designers: Skill Clusters

Postings for Graphic Designers require a variety of design and software skills.

16%

16%

18%

20%

22%

23%

24%

37%

78%

87%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Marketing and Public Relations: Social Media

Marketing and Public Relations: Marketing Management

Business: Project Management

Media and Writing: Art and Illustration

Design: User Interface and User Experience (UI/UX) Design

Information Technology: Web Design

Media and Writing: Visual Design Production

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Design: Graphic and Visual Design Software

Design: Graphic and Visual Design

Most Frequently-Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

OtherDesign





Graphic Designers: Employers

The largest employers are hiring hundreds of Graphic Designers§ But, the employment market remains fragmented: Accenture is the largest employer, but only accounts for

1.5% of specified postings.

241

170

165

87

82

65

64

57

56

52

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Accenture

Deloitte

Anthem Blue Cross

Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.

Amazon.com

Northrop Grumman

IBM

Whole Foods Market, Inc.

Gensler

Lone Star Med

Graphic DesignersJob Postings by Employer





Program Scorecard: Student Demand

Graphic Designer has more inquiries than 98% of other programs.





It is also above the 95th percentile in Google search volume, which is growing fast.





Completions, however, are shrinking fast.




Program Scorecard: Competition

Most programs have fewer competitors.





Google cost per click and competitive index are both above average.





The median program had only five completions.





This program remains largely an on-ground offering; only 13% of completions are online.




Competitors: Graphic Design

The market leaders are for-profits with very large Associate’s and Bachelor’s programs.




Program Scorecard: Employment and Fit

There is a large number of job postings, but the need for formal education is unclear.




Program Scorecard




Agenda


1. National


3. Degree Level

4. City and Program


3. Job Postings: Graphic Designers


5. Summary




Key Demand Trends and Observations

§ While inquiries are falling, conversion rates are improving.

─ Total Inquiries fell 11%

─ But conversions for the most recent mature month were up 6%

─ Online conversions are increasing at double-digit rates

§ It takes six months for many inquiries to convert: lead nurturing is vital.

§ Interest in on-ground programs continued a steep decline.─ Inquiries fell 12% year-over-year

─ Conversion fell 10% year-over-year

§ Higher-level degrees are outpacing Associate’s degrees and below.

§ Graphic Design is a good program at the national level.─ Student and employer demand are strong

─ Competition is unusually intense

─ Wages are a concern




Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:Bob Atkins

CEOGray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]@Gray_Associates

617.366.2836




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2017 September GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education

Education

Transcript of 2017 September GrayReports - Demand Trends for Higher Education