2017 January GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through January 2017

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Who Is Gray?

Program and Market Evaluation Data

Employment

Placement Rates

Student Inquiries

Demographics

Job Postings

Programs Price Projects Place §  Program portfolio

strategy §  Program profiles §  Program development

§  City targeting §  Location selection §  Campus consolidation

§  Price elasticity §  Price positioning §  Price optimization

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Acquisition analysis §  Complex analytics

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Gray’s Program Evaluation System is available as a SaaS solution.

Enhanced Crosswalks



Agenda

1.  Demand Trends: Inquiries, Conversions, and Google Searches

1.  National

2.  Online and On-Campus

3.  Degree and Channel

4.  City and Program

2.  Job Postings

3.  New Data Services

4.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

We will share data from 2015, 2016 and 2017. §  GrayReports covers January 2012 through the present. §  We add between 600,000 and one million qualified inquiries to the dataset each month. Introduce how to read

chart: years and colors

Report Monthly to account for seasonality

0

100,000

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1,000,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017



0

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200,000

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400,000

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2015 2016 2017


In 2016, inquiries fell by an average of 9% year-over-year.

•  Big declines were earlier in the year.

•  August and September were closer to last year’s results. -9%



0

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200,000

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400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000



2015 2016 2017


In January, inquiry volumes dropped 11%.

5% is a little worse than last month’s 1% decline, but better than this year’s average 8% decline. -11%

YoY



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External (or PPL) inquiries for higher education dropped an average of 15% in 2016. §  The decline continued in January 2017, which dropped 16% year-over-year.

0

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400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Define External Inquiries: Inquiries from a third-party site that generates inquiries for higher education.

-16% YoY



Branded Inquiries

For the second consecutive month, Branded inquiries fell, but only 2%. §  In 2016, the average monthly growth rate for Branded inquiries was 6%. §  But, Branded inquiries shrank 1% in December and 2% in January.

0

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350,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

-2% YoY

Define Branded Inquiries: Inquiries for a particular school’s brand name

There is an critical implication: if Branded inquiries become more prevalent, awareness and preference for your brand will increase in importance.

But, most institutions do not have the budget to support brand marketing. This trend may favor

1.  bigger schools with stronger brands, and more ability to fund brand marketing and football teams.

2.  Schools with well-defined niches in which they are well-known and well-regarded.



80

85

90

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100

105

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115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

In 2016, conversion rates seemed to be stabilizing, close to 2014 levels. §  Q3 2016 was 9% above the Q1 2014 level last month and has now increased to 12% above. §  Q4 2016 still has several months to mature, but is currently 2% above the Q1 2014 level.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March is counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for three months or more after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.

+2%



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

For October inquiries, total conversions fell 18% year-over-year. §  It now takes six months for conversions to fully mature. §  However, 18% is too wide a gap to catch last year’s levels.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1

0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Explain Conversion Timing: Conversions are counted in the month in which the original inquiry is received. If a June inquiry converts I August, it is counted as a June Conversion.

Typically, inquires take 13 months to mature (or reach their maximum conversion rate.

More recently, conversions are taking longer, sometimes 5-6 months after the inquiry.

-18% YoY



Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.91 $44.79 $44.85 $42.47 $44.97 $44.39 $44.53 $45.13 $44.77 $44.89 $45.55 2017 $45.52 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

$30 $32 $34 $36 $38 $40 $42 $44 $46 $48

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

To start off 2017, the average price of an External inquiry is over $45. §  The past two months are now the second and third highest average prices in the past three years.

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.

+0.9%



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels 2015 2016 2017

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Year-over-year, inquiries for online programs were flat in 2016.

+0.5%



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Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for online programs grew 4% in January. §  Online inquiries have now increased in six of the last seven months.

+4% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Conversions for online higher education programs increased 6% in October. §  This is the third consecutive increase in conversions. §  November, December, and January have already passed last year’s levels.

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Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

+6% YoY

Immature Months1



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

The decline in inquiries for on-campus academic programs in higher education continues.

§  2016 fell short of year-ago levels by an average of 15%. §  In January of 2017, inquiries for on-campus higher-education programs dropped 14% year-over-year.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-14% YoY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs fell 21% year-over-year in October. §  September gained another 3% over last year. §  The three immature months have a lot of ground to make up.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2016 2017

-21% YOY 1.  Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January

conversion). Typically, conversion rates will rise for at least three months after the inquiries were received.

Immature Months1



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Inquiry Volumes by Degree – Trailing Three Months

Post-Master’s certificates continued to be the fastest-growing degree. §  Associate’s degrees also increased over the past quarter (1%). §  All other degrees decreased, but to our surprise, lower-level degrees continue to outperform the other

advanced degrees.

-20%

-15%

-9%

-6%

1%

105%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Doctoral degree

Undergraduate certificate

Associate's degree

Post-master's certificate

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2016/2015 (November through January)



Inquiry Volumes by Channel – Trailing Three Months

Once again, Affiliate – PPC was the fastest-growing channel for student inquiries. §  Six different Branded inquiry channels grew in the most recent quarter.

-61% -44%

-35% -33%

-16% -12%

-5% -1%

1% 1%

13% 34% 40%

64% 397%

-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%

PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Interactive: Branded PPL: External Display: Branded Email: Branded Referral: Branded Affiliate: External Website: Branded Social Media: Branded PPC: Branded All Other Internal: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Organic: Branded Offline Media: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(November through January YoY) Branded External



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: December Growth

Inquiries for the Big Five shrank again. §  Registered Nursing performed the best, but dropped 9%. §  Medical Assisting was not far behind, decreasing 10%. §  Criminal Justice/Police Science was down 22%. §  The two business programs continued to drop the most, both down about 40%.

-9% -10%

-22%

-40% -41% -45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Registered Nursing Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Business Admin: Bachelor's +

Business Admin: Associate's -

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change



171%

145% 143%

113%

81%

-50%

0%

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Human Services Medical Insurance Coding Specialist

Liberal Arts and Sciences

Electrical and Electronics Engineering

Counseling Psychology

The Fast 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Fast 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth

All five of the fastest-growing programs1 grew more than 80%. §  At over 170%, Human Services grew the fastest for the fourth consecutive month. §  Medical Insurance Coding was also the second-fastest growing the last two month. §  The other three programs are new to the list.

1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



-88% -79%

-70% -63% -61%

-100%

-50%

0%

Electrical, Electronic and Comm. Eng. Tech.

Computer and Information Sciences,

General

Radiologic Technology

Accounting and Finance

Secondary Education and Teaching

The Slow 5 Programs Year-over-Year Change in January Inquiries

2017 YoY % Change

The Slow 5 Programs: The Higher Education Programs with the Slowest Inquiry Growth

All five of the slowest-growing programs1 shrank more than 60%. §  While Electronics Engineering was one of the fastest-growing programs, the technician program is the program

to decline the most.

1.  Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

All of The Big 5 fell year-over-year. §  New York performed the best this month, but still declined 6% compared to January 2016. §  Despite the negative numbers, each city performed better than it did the month and year before.

-27%

-19%

-38% -36%

-30%

-6% -6% -10% -11%

-19%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in December Inquiries

2016 YoY % Change 2017 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Overall Job Postings

Job Postings on employer sites grew 3% in 2016. §  Job counts for 2015-16 are not comparable to those for prior years due to changes in data collection.

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual Job Postings Business Administration – National

Employer Websites

-10% +3%

+22%

Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.



Job Postings: Demand Map

Where are the top locations for jobs? Example: Business Administration

MSAs (Top 5 MSA) Count % of Total Location Quotient Demand Level Index New York-Newark-Jersey City 115,406 9% 1.3 High

Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 71,942 6% 1.7 Very High

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 65,914 5% 1.2 Average

Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 50,138 4% 1.7 Very High

San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward 46,385 4% 2.1 Very High

Total 1,287,809




Job Postings: Job Titles

Sales Representative and Accountant are the most common job titles for business graduates. §  However, some jobs may require additional credentials or licenses (e.g., CPA).

Job Titles (Top 10) Count % to Total Sales Representative 67,498 5%

Accountant 61,929 5% Business Analyst 53,757 4% Account Manager 46,255 3% Sales Manager 42,738 3% Staff Accountant 37,422 3%

Accounting Manager 21,828 2% Sales Consultant 19,526 1% Store Manager 15,598 1% Tax Manager 13,328 1%

Total 1,361,178




Job Postings: Skill Clusters

The skill clusters most commonly cited are typically related to business, finance, and sales. §  43% of the job postings mentioned Microsoft Office or related office productivity tools.

17%

17%

19%

20%

23%

24%

25%

27%

37%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Sales: General Sales Practices

Business: Project Management

Business: Business Strategy

Business: Business Process and Analysis

Finance: General Accounting

Business: People Management

Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer Service

Finance: Budget Management

Sales: General Sales

Information Technology: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools

Most Frequently Cited Skill Clusters in Job Postings

Business Finance

Sales Other




Job Postings: Employers

In 2016, Oracle had the most job postings related to business administration. §  The biggest employers of business graduates include tech, banking, healthcare, and consulting firms.

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Employer 10

Bank of America

Amazon.com

Employer 7

Compass Group

Accenture

JP Morgan Chase Company

Employer 3

Employer 2

Oracle

Employers by Volume in Job Postings




Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings


4.  Summary



Gray’s Google Brand Search Tracker

Gray has begun tracking Google search volume by brand for over 70 brands. §  More colleges are competing nationally for online students, which makes brand increasingly important. §  Participating brands can track their monthly search volumes compared to a custom-defined peer group.

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000

University of California - Los Angeles

Stanford University

Harvard University

University of Phoenix

Ohio State University-Main Campus

Yale University

University of Michigan-Ann Arbor

Grand Canyon University

Emory University

Ivy Tech Community College

Google Keyword Searches (Dec 2015-Nov 2016)

Ten Largest Brands in the U.S.

Source: Data from Google. * Gray currently has Brand search volume data for 70 Brands.

Public, 4 Year

Not for Profit, 4 Year

Public, 2 Year

For Profit, 4 Year



Instructional Cost Index

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

Dental Hygiene/Hygienist

Journalism

Respiratory Care Therapy/Therapist

Dental Support Services and Allied Professions

Environmental Studies

Radiologic Technology/Science - Radiographer

Nursing/Registered Nurse (RN, ASN, BSN, MSN)

Physical Therapy Technician/Assistant

Surgical Technology/Technologist

Electromechanical Instrumentation and Maintenance

Instructional Cost Index National Community College Benchmarking Project

Gray is partnering with the National Higher Education Benchmarking Institute (NHEBI). §  NHEBI runs the National Community College Benchmarking Project (400 participating institutions). §  NHEBI provides Gray with an Index of Instructional Cost by program for Associate’s Degrees and below. §  We strongly encourage colleges to join the study, so they can better understand their costs.



Agenda


1.  National




2.  Job Postings

3.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

§  Overall student inquiries are declining.

§  Online is steadily taking share from on-ground programs.

─  Inquiries for online programs grew 4%

─  Conversions are growing at least 6% year-over-year.

§  Rapid growth in Post-Master’s certificates continues.

§  Inquiries for Human Services and Medical Insurance Coding are up over 100%.

§  The job market is healthy.

§  Microsoft Office is a critical skill set.

§  Gray has added new data to its services ─  Instructional Cost Index to help inform new program decisions ─  Brand Search to track the reach of your school’s brand



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] @Gray_Associates

617.366.2836



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2017 January GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education

Education

Transcript of 2017 January GrayReports - Demand Trends in Higher Education