2014 July GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through July 2014

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  Introduction

2.  Demand: National Overview

3.  Demand for On-Line Programs

4.  Demand for On-Ground Programs

5.  Medical Assisting: Preview of Upcoming Report

6.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

1.  Data on market demand is now available that can help guide your decision.

2.  Overall inquiry volume was down in July.

3.  However, conversions appear to be increasing.

4.  Market share is shifting between on-line and on-ground programs.

5.  Market share is also shifting from PPI to internal inquiries.

6.  In September, a new report will be available to help you take advantage of an emerging opportunity in Medical Assisting.



Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions IPEDS

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Industry Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic

priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program ideation and selection

§  Feasibility studies §  R&D §  Market reports

§  Business strategy and implementation

§  Acquisition analysis §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Education Institutions and Investors Mission

Help clients do well by doing good



What is GrayReports?

Nearly 32 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 880,000 new inquiries in July 149 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

257 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  Introduction





6.  Summary



Education Industry Inquiry Growth

Inquiry volume took another dip in July. §  Inquiries for the first seven months of 2014 have declined approximately 6.2% year-over-year. §  In June, the decline slowed to just 2.0% year-over-year. §  In July, the industry recorded a 10% year-over-year decline.

2012

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries (Millions)

Education Industry Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2013

2014

-10% YOY



Internal Inquiry Share

Internal inquiries are gaining share.

§  From January through March internal inquiries were stable versus last year.

§  April, May, and June all reported year-over-year increases of greater than 20%.

§  In July, internal inquiry share jumped 81% year-over-year to almost 30% of our sample.

2012

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Internal Inquiry Share

Education Industry: Internal Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2013

2014

81% YOY



1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.9%

2.6%

3.0%

2.8%

2.9%

3.5%

3.3%

3.1%

2.8%

2.9%

2.9%

2.9%

3.3%

3.0%

3.5%

3.3%

3.3%

3.0%

2.4%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%


App

licat

ion

Rat

e

Education Industry Conversion Rates 2013 2014

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Immature Months1

Inquiry-to-application conversion rates have strengthened in recent months. §  The first four months of 2014 are mature and have outperformed 2013. §  May 2014 is nearly mature and has already outperformed 2013 by 12.4%. §  July is starting strong and if the trend from the rest of the year holds it should outperform 2013.



Education Industry Conversion Growth

Conversion volumes are improving. §  April had the lowest year-over-year growth thus far of 5.6%. §  May still has the opportunity to improve but is already up 8.2% over last year.

2012

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Conversions (Millions)

Education Industry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels 2013 2014


Immature Months1



§  July prices rose $0.11 to $46.19. §  This is the highest price since January 2012.

Average Price Per Inquiry

In 2014, price per inquiry has risen to an average of $43.83

$30.0

$32.0

$34.0

$36.0

$38.0

$40.0

$42.0

$44.0

$46.0

$48.0

Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Avg.

PP

I

Inquiry Prices Average and YoY Change

All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2013

$42.38 $42.36 $42.93 $43.95

$42.97

$46.08 $46.19



Average Cost-Per-Conversion

Cost-per-conversion has improved dramatically. §  March has matured at 12.5% lower than 2013. §  April conversion costs were 9% below their 2013 totals. §  May is still maturing but has already dropped 9.4% below its 2013 price.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 $1,445 $1,586 $1,384 $1,455 $1,450 $1,150 $1,267 $1,344 $1,472 $1,415 $1,399 $1,401 2014 $1,278 $1,403 $1,211 $1,321 $1,314 $1,559 $1,934

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Cost-Per-Conversion All Programs and Award Levels

Not Fully Mature



Agenda

1.  Introduction





6.  Summary



-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2013

2014

On-Line Inquiries Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for on-line programs continue to lose share. §  So far in 2014, inquiries for on-line programs have dropped 23% YoY. §  In July, they were down over 24.5% YoY.

-24.5% YOY



1.9%

1.9%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

3.7%

2.0%

2.2%

2.0%

2.3%

1.9%

2.0%

1.9%

1.8%

2.5%

2.7%

2.9%

2.3%

2.2%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%


App

licat

ion

Rat

e

On-Line Education Industry Conversion Rates 2013 2014

On-Line Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Immature Months1

Conversion rates were poor in the first two months of Q1, but are improving. §  Application rates improved in March, April, and May, which is not yet mature and will likely exceed 3%. §  June does not appear likely to outperform 2013, but July is already ahead and has two more months

until maturity.




Education Industry On-line Conversion Growth

Conversion volumes for on-line programs are mixed. §  May reported the only year-over-year growth in 2014 at 9.5%. §  July started strong: 2014 conversions are only 14% below 2013 with three months until maturity.

2012

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


Conversions



Immature Months1



On-line Average Price Per Inquiry

Inquiries for on-line programs are higher than 2013. §  Prices spiked in June at $52.33. §  July prices dropped 15% from June, but were up 21% year-over-year at $48.47.

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0


Avg.

PP

I

On-line Inquiry Prices Average and YoY Change

All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2013

$41.94 $42.45 $43.53 $45.91 $44.41

$52.33 $48.47



On-line Average Cost-Per-Conversion

Price-per-conversion for on-line programs has improved in recent months. §  In March, April and May cost-per-conversion beat 2013. §  June was unusually low in 2013, this year it will probably end higher. §  July 2014, which has three more months until maturity, is only 6.4% above 2013.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 $2,209.07 $2,106.81 $1,868.00 $1,817.91 $1,876.15 $994.93 $2,025.91 $1,953.63 $2,013.77 $1,815.33 $2,017.50 $2,014.97 2014 $2,242.69 $2,315.41 $1,710.33 $1,721.30 $1,529.10 $2,304.73 $2,156.27

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

On-line Cost-Per-Conversion All Programs and Award Levels

Not Fully Mature



Largest On-Line Programs: July Growth

In July, three of the five largest on-line programs were down by more than 30% YoY. §  Registered Nursing’s increase positioned it as the program with the 3rd most inquiries in

July.

-12.9% -3.4%

60.5%

-5.5%

0.2%

-39.4% -52.5%

154.1%

-7.5% -32.7%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

Business Admin. & Mangement

Criminal Just./Police Sci. Registered Nurse Psychology Accounting

Five Largest Programs July Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change

2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only programs within the top 75 for total inquiries since January 2012.



Top 5 Fastest-Growing On-Line Programs in July

The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 140% year-over-year in July. §  Three of the programs grew more than 500%. §  Three healthcare programs were on the list of fastest growing programs in July. §  Computer Systems, Networking and Telecommunications was the fastest growing program in July.

-88.9% -82.1% -88.7%

60.5%

-42.4%

760.7% 688.9%

537.7%

154.1% 141.5%

-100.0% 0.0%

100.0% 200.0% 300.0% 400.0% 500.0% 600.0% 700.0% 800.0% 900.0%

Comp. Systems Network & Telecom.

Health Prof. & Related Progs.

Health Information/ Med. Records

Registered Nursing Cognitive Science

Industry Inquiries Fastest Growing Programs – July 2014





On-Line Program Fastest-Growing Cities of the Top 75

There was moderate growth in the fastest-growing cities1 for on-line programs. §  Four of the top five cities are in California. §  Columbus, OH is the only non-California city, but it declined 1.3% in July.

-56.5% -52.5% -48.8% -54.5%

-30.6%

12.7% 6.8% 5.5%

1.6%

-1.3%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

San Jose, CA Los Angeles, CA Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

Sacramento, CA Columbus, OH

Industry Inquiries 5 Highest Growth Markets – July 2014


1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.



Largest Cities for On-Line Programs: July Growth

Inquiry volume declined in four of the five largest markets in July 2014. §  Four of the five largest cities experienced double-digit declines. §  New York was hit the hardest—down 39%. §  Los Angeles, the only bright-spot, recorded year-over-year growth of 6.8%.

-30.9%

-52.5%

-36.8% -46.4% -43.0% -39.2%

6.8%

-18.4% -10.3%

-14.3%

-70.0%

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA

Change in Industry Inquiries 5 Largest Markets

12 Months Ending July 2014 2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only cities in the top 75 for inquiry volume since January 2012 within a 15 mile radius for all award levels nationally.



Agenda

1.  Introduction





6.  Summary



Inquiries for On-Ground Programs

Inquiries for on-ground programs remain a bright spot. §  The first seven months of 2014 have produced a 7.6% year-over-year increase in inquiries. §  The second quarter of 2014 outperformed Q2 2013 by 17.7%. §  July is the first month in the past six that did not outperform 2013. §  July recorded a very modest 1% decline in 2014.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000


Inqu

iries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2013

2014

-1%



4.1%

3.6%

4.6%

4.2%

4.4%

4.1%

5.6%

4.0%

4.1%

4.1%

4.3%

4.8%

4.6%

4.2%

4.7%

4.1%

3.8%

3.4%

3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%


Inquiry-to- Application

Conversion Rate

Education Industry Conversion Rates 2013 2014

On-Ground Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

Immature Months1

Application rates for on-ground programs are at or above last year. §  January through April were at or above last year. §  May and June are close to last year’s levels and will likely beat them as they mature. §  July 2014 is off to a strong start but may not reach the record set last July.




Education Industry On-Ground Conversion Growth

Conversion volumes are improving. §  Each mature month has reported growth of over 7.5%. §  May and June are already ahead of 2013, and will continue to improve. §  July 2013 set the record last year; July 2014 started strong, but has a long way to go.

2012

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Conversions



Immature Months1



On-Ground Average Price Per Inquiry

July of 2014 marks the first year-over-year increase in inquiry prices in 2014. §  July is the first month since May of 2013 where on-ground inquiry prices increased above $40.00.

$39.25 $38.76 $39.67 $39.75 $38.60 $38.76 $41.99

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Avg.

PP

I

On-Ground Inquiry Prices Average and YoY Change

All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2013



On-Ground Average Cost-Per-Conversion

On-ground, average cost per application is leveling out. §  April of 2014 had an average cost-per-application that was 1.5% lower than April 2013. §  It looks as though May and June should be equivalent to or slightly below their 2013 prices. §  It is still too early to tell how July 2014 will turn out but it has a long way to go to match the $702 price in 2013.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 $1,005 $1,138 $909 $981 $948 $946 $702 $972 $965 $949 $870 $804 2014 $849 $917 $844 $966 $1,019 $1,124 $1,389

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

On-Ground Inquiry Cost-Per-Conversion All Programs and Award Levels

Not Fully Mature



On-Ground Largest Programs: July Growth

In July, two of the five largest programs declined by more than 10% YoY. §  Registered Nursing programs experienced the strongest growth at 185%. §  Med. Office Assistant/Specialists programs grew a little over 20% YoY.

15.4%

-27.3% -11.4%

-31.7%

92.2%

-4.3% -12.1%

185.0%

-24.9%

20.4%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

Medical Assistant

Business Administration Registerd Nurse Criminal Justice Medical Office Assistant

Five Largest Programs July Inquiries: Year-over-Year Change





Top 5 Fastest-Growing On-Ground Programs in July

The five fastest-growing programs1 all grew over 100% year-over-year in July. §  Two are traditional hands-on trade programs: Welding and Electrical Technician. §  Registered Nursing makes another appearance as a fastest-growing program. §  Computer programming and Vet Tech. round out the list.

-59.2%

39.9%

-11.4% -82.5%

-16.8%

488.0%

277.3%

185.0% 116.2% 102.8%

-200.0%

-100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

200.0%

300.0%

400.0%

500.0%

600.0%

Welding Techician

Electrical, Electronic & Comms. Eng. Tech.

Registered Nursing

Computer Programming

Vetenary Technician

Industry Inquiries Fastest Growing Programs – July 2014





Fastest-Growing Cities for On-Ground Programs

Among the 75 largest cities, the fastest-growing cities1 are all up over 30%. §  Two of the five largest markets were amongst the fastest-growing cities in July 2014. §  The market share for the fastest-growing cities increased from 4.4% in 2013 to 6.3% in 2014.

-41.6%

9.8%

-28.1% -20.8% -9.0%

47.4% 44.0% 43.1% 40.7% 33.9%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

New York, NY Riverside-San Bernardino, CA

Bridgeport-Stamford, CT Hartford, CT Los Angeles, CA

Industry Inquiries 5 Highest Growth Markets – July 2014


1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.



Largest Cities for On-Ground Programs: July Growth

Inquiry volume declined in three of the five largest markets in July 2014. §  Los Angeles recorded strong year-over-year growth of 33.9%. §  New York grew 47.4% year-over-year but was still nearly 1,000 inquiries short of 2012 inquiry volumes §  Atlanta, Chicago, and Philadelphia experience declines of between eight and nearly thirteen percent

-9.0%

-41.6%

-21.4%

-0.9%

-20.3%

33.9% 47.4%

-8.3% -12.8% -10.4%

-70.0%

-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

70.0%

Los Angeles, CA New York, NY Chicago, IL Atlanta, GA Philadelphia, PA

Change in Industry Inquiries 5 Largest Markets

12 Months Ending July 2014 2013 YoY % Change 2014 YoY % Change

1. Includes only cities in the top 75 for inquiry volume since January 2012 within a 15 mile radius for all award levels nationally.



XXX Agenda

1.  Introduction





6.  Summary



§  Gray is studying health care trends and the implications for Medical Assisting. §  Several forces should drive sustained growth in the demand for health care:

–  Aging population –  Increase in chronic illnesses associated with age (diabetes, dementia) –  Increase in the insured population

§  This will increase demand for ambulatory care—where most MAs are employed. §  Medical Assistants are also likely to have a growing role in long-term care. §  Current job flow and predicted job openings are strong:

–  2.58% growth in BLS –  Almost 200,000 job posting per month, growing at double-digit rates

§  Competition is declining—Corinthian’s troubles may accelerate the decline. §  But, placement rates hardly changed, moving from 71 to 72%. §  Large, high-performing programs achieved 85% placement rates. §  We have identified best practices to improve placement and other outcomes. §  Please contact me to purchase your report.

GrayReports on Medical Assisting



XXX Agenda

1.  Introduction





6.  Summary



Key Findings

Inquiry quality is improving and shifting from on-line to on-ground programs.

§  The shift from PPI to internal inquiries is now apparent.

§  Overall inquiries are down 10%, conversions and prices are up.

§  Inquiries for on-line programs declined 25%, but conversion rates rose—a lot.

§  Inquiries and conversions for on-ground programs are healthy.

§  Medical Assisting is a very large and challenging program, but it can be fixed.



How do I get Information for My Locations and Programs?

Gray Reports is offered as an annual subscription. §  Customized for your locations §  Customized for your programs §  Monthly PDF overview of inquiry, application, and pricing tends in your markets §  On-line access to your market data by program, campus, veteran’s status, years since

high school and other factors



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact me: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

617-401-7662

For the presentation or a recording of the session, please visit: GrayAssociates.com

2014 July GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

Education

Transcript of 2014 July GrayReports - Student Demand Trends