2016 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

GRAYREPORTS Demand for Higher Education Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through March 2016

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Who Is Gray?

GrayData

IPEDS+

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Student Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders

Competition

Program Evaluation System

§  Custom Scoring

§  Scorecards

-  By Program

-  By Market

-  100+ Markets

-  1,000+ Programs

Updates

Enhanced Crosswalks



What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand for higher education. §  Today’s webinar and monthly industry trend reports are free. §  Paid subscribers receive custom monthly reports for their markets and programs. §  Paid subscribers also have online access to detailed data for their programs and markets.

Over 45 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 750,000 new inquiries in March 2016 Over 200 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry and Conversion Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: Online vs. On-Campus Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Program Evaluation

5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary



Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)

Overall inquiry volumes for higher education fell another 10%. §  Inquiries were increasing late last year, but the trend broke at the start of the new year. §  This year’s first quarter was down 9% compared to last year’s first quarter.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-10% YoY



Branded Inquiries

Branded inquiries decreased 10% in March. §  March was the first time Branded inquiries have decreased since July 2015.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


National Branded Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-10% YoY



External Inquiries: Overall Results

External inquiries decreased in March for the second consecutive year. §  This was the lowest March volume in over four years. §  External inquiries decreased year-over-year in 13 of the last 15 months.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000


National External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015 2016

-11% YoY



Inquiry to Application: Overall Conversion Rates

Overall conversion rates have been volatile, but were trending up until recent months. §  Since Q1 2014, quarterly rates have risen as much as 18% and dropped by 4%. §  The most recent mature quarter dropped by 1%. §  Both Branded and external inquiry conversion rates dropped in Q4.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

Overall Inquiry Conversion Rates: Trends (Indexed to Q1 2014)

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

2.  Total includes unknown source type.



Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)

In December, total student conversions for programs in higher education decreased 7% year-over-year. §  This comes after strong growth in November. §  After the weak Q4, conversion rates in Q1 are good, though Q1 has not matured. §  As a result, Q1 seems likely to hit last year’s levels when it matures.


0 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000


Total Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-7% YoY

Immature Months1



Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry

The price of an external inquiry increased 3% year-over-year. §  After a record high in February, the average price is back below the $45 mark. §  Better inquiries may cost more—and institutions are competing for fewer inquiries.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 $41.72 $41.81 $41.70 $42.45 $40.94 $44.23 $44.25 $44.00 $45.34 $45.44 $44.79 $42.18 2015 $43.10 $43.50 $43.70 $43.61 $43.80 $43.63 $45.07 $44.75 $45.24 $44.92 $44.67 $44.75 2016 $45.11 $45.93 $44.90

$44.90

$35

$37

$39

$41

$43

$45

$47

Average Price per Inquiry for PPI All Programs and Award Levels

Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.



Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends




5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary



Inquiries for Online Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change Inquiries for online programs fell less than February, but did decrease 5%. §  In 2015, September (+20%), October (+46%), and November (+40%) had solid inquiry volume. §  March did recover from a February that was exceptionally low.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-5% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs

Year-over-year, December had 12% more conversions for online programs. §  This trend will probably not continue into the new year.

─  January is on pace to come in very near 2015 levels.


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000


Inquiry Conversions for Online Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

Immature Months1

12% YoY



Inquiries for On-Campus Programs

Student demand for on-campus higher education programs dropped 7% year-over-year. §  Inquiries grew in October and November of 2015. §  December fell 8%. §  The decline had accelerated to start 2016—January and February were down 14% and 17%.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000


Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016

-7% YoY



Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs

Conversions for on-campus programs continued to decline—down 13% in December. §  Q1 conversions may reach last year’s levels when these months mature.

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000


Inquiry Conversions for On-Campus Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2016


-13% YOY Immature Months1



Agenda





5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary



The Big 5 Programs: March Growth

Three of the big five programs grew! §  Three of the Big 5 Programs grew 8% or more year-over-year.

─  After massive year-over-year declines in 2014 and 2015, Criminal Justice is regaining some ground. ─  Registered Nursing is continuing to grow and is up more than 14%.

§  Medical Assistant and Administrative Assistant continued to fall.

-76%

84%

6%

-13% -7%

50%

14% 8%

-20% -27%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Criminal Justice/Police Science

Registered Nursing/Registered Nurse

Business Administration and Management

Medical/Clinical Assistant Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science

Five Largest Programs Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change 2016 YoY % Change



Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities

Once again, the biggest cities were down year-over-year. §  March was much worse than February for the Big 5—all five were down more than 10%. §  Unlike last month, Chicago had the largest decline, with a 34% year-over-year drop.

-15%

-2%

-28%

-7% -10% -12%

-22% -25%

-30% -34%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Philadelphia, PA New York, NY Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA Chicago, IL

Top Five Cities for Inquiries Since January 2012 Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries

2015 YoY % Change2 2016 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.



-34%

-29%

-13%

-12%

-8%

-8%

-1%

12%

18%

26%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Unknown Degree Associate's Campus External Online Certificate Branded Bachelor's Doctorate Master's

Quarterly Change in Inquiries 2014/2015 vs. 2015/2016 (January – March)

Inquiry Volumes by Category – Trailing 3 Months

Quarterly inquiries for higher-level degrees continued to grow. §  Higher-level degrees continue to have the highest inquiry growth. §  Unlike previous quarters, internal inquiries declined slightly. §  For the quarter, both on-campus and online programs were down.



Inquiry Volumes by Channel - Trailing 3 Months

For the most part, branded inquiry channels outperformed external inquiries. §  Social Media continued to be the fastest-growing channel. §  Five different branded inquiry channels grew in March.

-76% -45%

-39% -31%

-21% -19%

-9% -7% -4% -3%

8% 10%

36% 57%

178%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

Display: Branded Inbound Phone: Branded Offline Media: Branded Referral: Branded Affiliate - PPC: External Affiliate: External All Other Internal: Branded PPC: Branded Email: Branded PPL: External Interactive: Branded Website: Branded Organic: Branded PPC - Inbound Call: Branded Social Media: Branded

Quarterly Change in Inquiries by Channel All Programs and Award Levels

(January – March, YoY)



Agenda





5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary



DoE to Accreditors: Employment Outcomes Matter

The Department of Education notified accreditors that they need to better monitor employment outcomes.

“If there have been poor outcomes for students or other concerns that have arisen at accredited institutions or programs, does the agency need to revise its standards and processes to identify and address those issues

more effectively?”

Source: Letter from the U.S. Department of Education dated April 22, 2016 titled “Flexibility in Application of Accrediting Agency Review Process; and Emphases in Departmental Review of Agency Effectiveness”, signed by Ted Mitchell, Under Secretary.



85% of BLS growth projections are off by 50% or more. •  45% of BLS’s estimates were too optimistic. Of these, 32% were off by 100% or more. •  45% of BLS’s estimates were too optimistic. Of these, 32% were off by 100% or more. •  55% were too optimistic; these were closer the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more55%

were too optimistic; these were closer the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more.

•  45% of BLS’s estimates were too optimistic. Of these, 32% were off by 100% or more. •  55% were too optimistic; these were closer to the mark; still, 44% were off by 50% or more

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150-200% 200%+

Percentage of SOCs

Percentage Error

Error in BLS Actual vs. Projected Change in Employment 2012-2015

Forecast Too Pessimistic Forecast Too Optimistic

Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022 Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. Gray used the 2012 base and the BLS annual growth rate to estimate 2015 employment.



Job Postings Are Quite Consistent Over Time

New Job Postings in 2012 were a better predictor.

-

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

- 250,000 500,000 750,000

2015-16 New Job Postings

2012-13 New Job Postings

New Job Postings By 8-Digit SOC*

Home Health Aides

Stock Clerks and Order

Fillers

Source: WANTED Analytics. Excludes SOC 53-3032.00 Commercial Truck Drivers.



Monthly New Job Postings for Securities Traders

Some fields are quite volatile; these postings have limited predictive value.

New Job Postings

New Job Postings Securities and Commodities Traders

2012-2016

Source: WANTED Analytics. SOC 41-3031.03 Securities and Commodities Traders.



Monthly New Job Postings for Registered Nurses

Some occupations have had essentially straight-line growth trends. Postings in these fields would be highly predictive.

New Job Postings Registered Nurses

2012-2016

New Job Postings

Source: WANTED Analytics. SOC 29-1141 Registered Nurses.



Agenda





5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary

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Agenda





5.  SocialHP

6.  Summary



Key Demand Trends and Observations

March generally underperformed.

§  Inquiry volumes fell 10%. ─ Branded down 10% ─ Online down 5% ─ On-campus down 7%

§  Conversions are down 7%. ─ However, online conversions were up 12% in December. ─  It is too early to tell if January of 2016 will reach last year’s levels.

§  Prices are up year-over-year, but down from last month’s new high. §  Several large programs are growing. §  Higher degree levels continue to outperform. §  Better data and systems are available to support your decisions. ─ Where to focus your marketing—by program and market ─ What programs to Stop, Start, Sustain or Grow



Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact: Bob Atkins

CEO Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected]

@Gray_Associates 617.366.2836



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2016 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends

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Transcript of 2016 March GrayReports - Student Demand Trends