14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as...

8
14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Expect market share gains in downturn We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn, given its dominant position in the entry level/compact car segment, where the co has a market share of 65% (vs. 51% overall). Maruti will benefit from its gasoline driven portfolio as the breakeven for diesel vehicles has further increased after the introduction of BSVI variants. As the company has a robust balance sheet, with cash reserves of ~Rs 400bn (~25% of market cap), we expect the industry leader to withstand the downturn due to its scale and robust balance sheet. 4QFY20 Financials: Revenues declined 15% YoY to Rs 182bn due to a 16% decline in overall volumes. EBITDA margin at 8.5% contracted 210bps YoY/170bp QoQ owing to negative operating leverage. Other expenses were higher 170bps YoY (due to higher advertisement expenses and one-time impact related to BSIV discontinuation); which was partially offset by lower RM expense (-35bp YoY). Higher other income (+2%YoY) and lower corporate tax rate at 18% (vs. 22.3% YoY) cushioned the performance. PAT declined 28% YoY to Rs 12.9bn. Call & other takeaways: (1) The mgmt expects down trading as customers are expected to move towards personal transport, which will drive entry car sales. The share of first time buyers currently stands at 45-47% (2) Maruti derives 39% of sales from the rural segment and will benefit from its well spread service network (3) The share of petrol vehicles has risen to ~80% (vs. 71% QoQ) for the industry and ~93% for Maruti (vs. 80% QoQ). With the launch of the Brezza in petrol, the OEM will further consolidate its presence. Maruti’s early transition to BS-VI has enabled it to sustain its market share at 50% levels (4) The BSVI diesel vehicles are ~Rs 150,000 more expensive than their petrol variants. Also, as large markets such as Delhi have raised diesel fuel prices by Rs 7, it will further impact breakeven levels for diesel models (5) As most of the surplus funds are invested in AAA portfolios, Maruti will not be impacted by the current write downs in the debt segment. However, lower interest rates will impact yields in the current year (6) The OEM has reduced capex guidance to Rs 27bn in FY21 (from Rs 32.5bn in FY20) Upgrade to BUY: We increase our FY21/22E EPS by 4%/flat. We continue to value the stock at 23x on FY22E EPS (which is at a ~5% premium to long term historic average trading multiple) with a TP of Rs 5,810. Key risks: extended impact due to COVID, increase in competitive intensity. Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs mn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Sales 181,987 214,594 (15.2) 207,068 (12.1) 797,627 860,203 756,106 643,540 749,205 EBITDA 15,464 22,634 (31.7) 21,021 (26.4) 120,615 109,993 73,026 54,701 90,354 APAT 12,917 17,956 (28.1) 15,648 (17.5) 77,218 75,006 56,506 44,090 76,214 Diluted EPS (Rs) 42.8 59.5 (28.1) 51.8 (17.5) 255.7 248.4 187.1 146.0 252.4 APAT Growth (%) 5.1 (2.9) (24.7) (22.0) 72.9 P/E (x) 19.7 20.3 26.9 34.5 20.0 RoE (%) 19.8 17.1 11.7 8.5 13.6 Source: Company, HSIE Research BUY CMP (as on 13 May 2020) Rs 5,035 Target Price Rs 5,810 NIFTY 9,384 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating ADD BUY Price Target Rs 5,810 Rs 5,810 EPS % FY21E FY22E 4% 0% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code MSIL IN No. of Shares (mn) 302 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,521/20,195 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 7,122 52 Week high / low Rs 7,759/4,001 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (28.1) (29.6) (23.1) Relative (%) (5.3) (9.4) (9.4) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Sep-19 Dec-19 Promoters 56.2 56.2 FIs & Local MFs 15.0 15.6 FPIs 23.4 23.2 Public & Others 5.3 5.0 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-6171-7357

Transcript of 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as...

Page 1: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20

Maruti Suzuki

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Expect market share gains in downturn

We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected

to gain market share in the current downturn, given its dominant position in

the entry level/compact car segment, where the co has a market share of 65%

(vs. 51% overall). Maruti will benefit from its gasoline driven portfolio as the

breakeven for diesel vehicles has further increased after the introduction of

BSVI variants. As the company has a robust balance sheet, with cash reserves

of ~Rs 400bn (~25% of market cap), we expect the industry leader to withstand

the downturn due to its scale and robust balance sheet.

4QFY20 Financials: Revenues declined 15% YoY to Rs 182bn due to a 16%

decline in overall volumes. EBITDA margin at 8.5% contracted 210bps

YoY/170bp QoQ owing to negative operating leverage. Other expenses were

higher 170bps YoY (due to higher advertisement expenses and one-time

impact related to BSIV discontinuation); which was partially offset by lower

RM expense (-35bp YoY). Higher other income (+2%YoY) and lower

corporate tax rate at 18% (vs. 22.3% YoY) cushioned the performance. PAT

declined 28% YoY to Rs 12.9bn.

Call & other takeaways: (1) The mgmt expects down trading as customers

are expected to move towards personal transport, which will drive entry car

sales. The share of first time buyers currently stands at 45-47% (2) Maruti

derives 39% of sales from the rural segment and will benefit from its well

spread service network (3) The share of petrol vehicles has risen to ~80% (vs.

71% QoQ) for the industry and ~93% for Maruti (vs. 80% QoQ). With the

launch of the Brezza in petrol, the OEM will further consolidate its presence.

Maruti’s early transition to BS-VI has enabled it to sustain its market share at

50% levels (4) The BSVI diesel vehicles are ~Rs 150,000 more expensive than

their petrol variants. Also, as large markets such as Delhi have raised diesel

fuel prices by Rs 7, it will further impact breakeven levels for diesel models

(5) As most of the surplus funds are invested in AAA portfolios, Maruti will

not be impacted by the current write downs in the debt segment. However,

lower interest rates will impact yields in the current year (6) The OEM has

reduced capex guidance to Rs 27bn in FY21 (from Rs 32.5bn in FY20)

Upgrade to BUY: We increase our FY21/22E EPS by 4%/flat. We continue to

value the stock at 23x on FY22E EPS (which is at a ~5% premium to long

term historic average trading multiple) with a TP of Rs 5,810. Key risks:

extended impact due to COVID, increase in competitive intensity.

Financial Summary

YE Mar (Rs

mn)

4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(%)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 181,987 214,594 (15.2) 207,068 (12.1) 797,627 860,203 756,106 643,540 749,205

EBITDA 15,464 22,634 (31.7) 21,021 (26.4) 120,615 109,993 73,026 54,701 90,354

APAT 12,917 17,956 (28.1) 15,648 (17.5) 77,218 75,006 56,506 44,090 76,214

Diluted EPS

(Rs) 42.8 59.5 (28.1) 51.8 (17.5) 255.7 248.4 187.1 146.0 252.4

APAT Growth

(%) 5.1 (2.9) (24.7) (22.0) 72.9

P/E (x)

19.7 20.3 26.9 34.5 20.0

RoE (%)

19.8 17.1 11.7 8.5 13.6

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BUY

CMP (as on 13 May 2020) Rs 5,035

Target Price Rs 5,810

NIFTY 9,384

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating ADD BUY

Price Target Rs 5,810 Rs 5,810

EPS % FY21E FY22E

4% 0%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code MSIL IN

No. of Shares (mn) 302

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,521/20,195

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 7,122

52 Week high / low Rs 7,759/4,001

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) (28.1) (29.6) (23.1)

Relative (%) (5.3) (9.4) (9.4)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Sep-19 Dec-19

Promoters 56.2 56.2

FIs & Local MFs 15.0 15.6

FPIs 23.4 23.2

Public & Others 5.3 5.0

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Aditya Makharia

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7316

Mansi Lall

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7357

Page 2: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

Page | 2

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

Quarterly Financial Snapshot

Particulars (Rs mn) 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(%)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY19 YoY (%)

Volumes (in units) 385,025 458,479 (16.0) 437,361 (12.0) 1,563,297 1,862,489 (16.1)

Net ASP (Rs/veh) 472,663 468,056 1.0 473,449 (0.2) 483,661 461,857 4.7

Net sales (incl OOI) 181,987 214,594 (15.2) 207,068 (12.1) 756,106 860,203 (12.1)

Material Expenses 127,914 151,599 (15.6) 146,811 (12.9) 536,632 599,905 (10.5)

Employee Expenses 8,194 8,169 0.3 8,670 (5.5) 33,839 32,549 4.0

Other Operating Expenses 30,415 32,192 (5.5) 30,566 (0.5) 112,609 117,980 (4.6)

Total Expenditure 166,523 191,960 (13.3) 186,047 (10.5) 683,080 750,434 (9.0)

EBITDA 15,464 22,634 (31.7) 21,021 (26.4) 73,026 109,769 (33.5)

Depreciation 8,230 8,102 1.6 8,580 (4.1) 35,257 30,189 16.8

EBIT 7,234 14,532 (50.2) 12,441 (41.9) 37,769 79,580 (52.5)

Other Income 8,804 8,677 1.5 7,840 12.3 34,208 25,834 32.4

Interest Cost 283 88 221.6 217 30.4 1,329 758 75.3

PBT 15,755 23,121 (31.9) 20,064 (21.5) 70,648 104,656 (32.5)

Tax 2,838 5,165 (45.1) 4,416 (35.7) 14,142 29,650 (52.3)

PAT 12,917 17,956 (28.1) 15,648 (17.5) 56,506 75,006 (24.7)

Adj EPS 42.8 59.5 (28.1) 51.8 (17.5) 187.1 248.4 (24.7)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Quarterly Performance Analysis

As % of sales 4Q

FY20

4Q

FY19

YoY

(bps)

3Q

FY20

QoQ

(bps) FY20 FY19

YoY

(bps)

Material Expenses 70.3 70.6 (36) 70.9 (61) 71.0 69.7 (123)

Employee Expenses 4.5 3.8 70 4.2 32 4.5 3.8 (69)

Other Operating

Expenses 16.7 15.0 171 14.8 195 14.9 13.7 (118)

Total Expenditure 91.5 89.5 205 89.8 165 90.3 87.2 (310)

EBITDA 8.5 10.5 (205) 10.2 (165) 9.7 12.8 310

PAT 7.1 8.4 (127) 7.6 (46) 7.5 8.7 125

Tax as % of PBT 18.0 22.3 (433) 22.0 (400) 20.0 28.3 831

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Volumes were weak in 4QFY20 Realizations were flattish YoY/QoQ

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Maruti has successfully

transitioned to the new

emission norm and has

sold ~800,000 BSVI

vehicles in the year

The ASP’s have moderated

due to the changing shift

away from higher priced

diesel variants

Discounts have risen to Rs

19,051 in 4Q (Rs 15,134

YoY)

Lower tax rate at 18% vs.

22.3% YoY cushioned the

negative performance

11

.4

24

.3

-1.5

-0.6

-0.7

-17

.9

-30

.2

2.0

-16

.0

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

300

350

400

450

500

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Volumes ('000 units) % change YoY -RHS

458 458463

459

468

490

502

473 473

430

450

470

490

510

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Avg realisation (Rs '000)

Page 3: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

Page | 3

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

EBITDA margins contracted due to negative op lev Avg discount/vehicle has risen YoY

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Maruti’s domestic PV market is above 50% Maruti’s market share in < 4m passenger cars

Source: SIAM, Company, HSIE Research Source: SIAM, Company, HSIE Research

Segmental Mix (%) 1 year forward P/E band chart

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

14

.2

14

.9

15

.3

9.8

10

.5

10

.4

9.5

10

.2

8.5

8

10

12

14

16

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA Margin (%) - RHS

13.715

18.7

24.3

15.116.9

25.8

33.0

19.1

10

15

20

25

30

35

4Q

FY

18

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

Discount/vehicle (Rs in '000)

54%

60%

61%

65%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

51%

46

48

50

52

54

56

Ma

r-1

7

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

Dec

-17

Ma

r-1

8

Jun

-18

Sep

-18

Dec

-18

Ma

r-1

9

Jun

-19

Sep

-19

Dec

-19

Ma

r-2

0

47% 50%

20% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY19 FY20

Compact Mini UV's Vans Mid-Size Others Exports

5

15

25

35

45

Ma

y-0

7

Ma

y-0

8

Ma

y-0

9

Ma

y-1

0

Ma

y-1

1

Ma

y-1

2

Ma

y-1

3

Ma

y-1

4

Ma

y-1

5

Ma

y-1

6

Ma

y-1

7

Ma

y-1

8

Ma

y-1

9

Ma

y-2

0P/E Mean +1 SD -1 SD

Page 4: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

Page | 4

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

Volume assumptions

(in units) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

Domestic sales 1,653,500 1,753,700 1,461,126 1,234,651 1,395,156

% YoY 14.5 6.1 (16.7) (15.5) 13.0

Export sales 126,074 108,749 102,171 91,954 102,988

% YoY 1.6 (13.7) (6.0) (10.0) 12.0

Total sales 1,779,574 1,862,449 1,563,297 1,326,605 1,498,145

% YoY 13.4 4.7 (16.1) (15.1) 12.9

Average Net ASP 448,212 461,867 483,661 485,103 500,089

% YoY 3.3 3.0 4.7 0.3 3.1

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Peer set comparison

Mcap

(Rs bn)

CMP

(Rs/sh) Reco TP

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x)

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Ashok Leyland 143 49 REDUCE 46 1.2 1.0 3.5 40.3 48.8 13.9 4.2 3.4 11.4 12.0 13.6 6.8

Bajaj Auto 780 2,694 ADD 2,695 162.6 138.0 158.4 16.6 19.5 17.0 20.4 15.7 16.6 11.0 13.0 10.7

Eicher 389 14,266 REDUCE 13,800 645.0 542.3 677.2 22.1 26.3 21.1 18.2 13.5 15.0 14.7 17.3 13.8

Hero Motocorp 438 2,191 BUY 2,210 151.9 112.3 138.1 14.4 19.5 15.9 22.0 14.8 17.1 9.0 12.0 9.4

Mahindra & Mahindra 492 413 ADD 410 31.3 24.1 31.9 13.2 17.2 12.9 10.2 7.3 9.1 6.1 7.6 5.6

Maruti Suzuki 1,521 5,035 BUY 5,810 187.1 146.0 252.4 26.9 34.5 20.0 11.7 8.5 13.6 15.3 20.0 11.5

Source: HSIE Research

Change in Estimates

Rs mn New Old Change (%)

FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

Net Sales 643,540 749,205 662,186 771,093 (3) (3)

EBITDA 54,701 90,354 53,306 92,840 3 (3)

EBITDA margin (%) 8.5 12.1 8.1 12.0 45 bps 2 bps

Adj PAT 44,090 76,214 42,341 76,275 4 (0)

Adj EPS (in Rs) 146.0 252.4 140.2 252.6 4 (0)

Source: HSIE Research

Page 5: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

Page | 5

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

Financials Standalone Income Statement

(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Net Revenues 499,706 575,381 680,348 797,627 860,203 756,106 643,540 749,205

Growth (%) 14.3 15.1 18.2 17.2 7.8 (12.1) (14.9) 16.4

Material Expenses 350,080 386,372 466,280 548,759 601,321 530,349 454,340 519,723

Employee Expenses 16,066 19,788 23,310 28,338 32,549 33,839 30,890 31,766

Other Operating Expenses 66,431 80,377 87,241 99,915 116,340 118,892 103,610 107,361

Total Expenses 432,577 486,537 576,831 677,012 750,210 683,080 588,840 658,851

EBITDA 67,129 88,844 103,517 120,615 109,993 73,026 54,701 90,354

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.7 8.5 12.1

EBITDA Growth (%) 31.7 32.3 16.5 16.5 (8.8) (33.6) (25.1) 65.2

Depreciation 24,703 28,202 26,021 27,579 30,189 35,257 32,633 33,398

EBIT 42,426 60,642 77,496 93,036 79,804 37,769 22,068 56,956

Other Income (Including EO Items) 8,316 14,610 23,001 20,455 25,610 34,208 35,010 40,038

Interest 2,060 815 894 3,457 758 1,329 984 582

PBT 48,682 74,437 99,603 110,034 104,656 70,648 56,094 96,412

Tax (Incl Deferred) 11,570 20,794 26,101 32,816 29,650 14,142 12,004 20,198

RPAT 37,112 53,643 73,502 77,218 75,006 56,506 44,090 76,214

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - - - - - - - -

APAT 37,112 53,643 73,502 77,218 75,006 56,506 44,090 76,214

APAT Growth (%) 33.4 44.5 37.0 5.1 (2.9) (24.7) (22.0) 72.9

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 248.4 187.1 146.0 252.4

EPS Growth (%) 33.4 44.5 37.0 5.1 (2.9) (24.7) (22.0) 72.9

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Standalone Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510 1,510

Reserves 235,532 297,332 362,801 416,063 459,905 499,459 530,322 583,672

Total Shareholders Funds 237,042 298,842 364,311 417,573 461,415 500,969 531,832 585,182

Total Debt 1,802 774 4,836 1,108 1,496 1,994 2,492 2,990

Net Deferred Taxes 4,810 1,943 4,662 5,589 5,640 5,922 6,218 6,529

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 243,654 301,559 373,809 424,270 468,551 508,885 540,542 594,701

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 122,593 125,100 132,927 133,590 154,078 153,821 146,188 147,790

CWIP 18,828 10,069 12,523 21,259 16,001 16,801 17,641 18,523

Investments 1,698 6,274 8,612 12,082 10,340 10,340 10,340 10,340

Total Non-current Assets 143,119 141,443 154,062 166,931 180,419 180,962 174,169 176,653

Cash & Equivalents 127,066 193,439 276,336 341,531 356,599 401,783 428,708 488,693

Inventories 26,150 31,321 32,622 31,608 33,257 33,144 31,736 33,663

Debtors 10,698 13,222 11,992 14,618 23,104 22,787 22,921 24,631

Other Current Assets 28,477 39,975 37,494 39,013 35,939 38,575 41,475 44,664

Total Current Assets 192,391 277,957 358,444 426,770 448,899 496,289 524,839 591,651

Creditors 75,326 102,075 114,951 139,172 127,034 133,208 121,782 135,287

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 16,530 15,766 23,746 30,259 33,733 35,159 36,684 38,316

Total Current Liabilities 91,856 117,841 138,697 169,431 160,767 168,366 158,466 173,603

Net Current Assets 100,535 160,116 219,747 257,339 288,132 327,923 366,374 418,048

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 243,654 301,559 373,809 424,270 468,551 508,885 540,542 594,701

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page 6: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

Page | 6

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

Standalone Cash Flow (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

Reported PBT 48,682 74,437 99,603 110,034 104,656 70,648 56,094 96,412

Non-operating & EO Items (8,316) (14,610) (23,001) (20,455) (25,610) (34,208) (35,010) (40,038)

Interest Expenses 2,060 815 894 3,457 758 1,329 984 582

Depreciation 24,703 28,202 26,021 27,579 30,189 35,257 32,633 33,398

Working Capital Change 17,344 6,792 23,266 27,603 (15,725) 5,393 (11,526) 8,311

Tax Paid (12,626) (23,661) (23,382) (31,889) (29,599) (13,860) (11,708) (19,887)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 71,847 71,975 103,401 116,329 64,669 64,559 31,467 78,777

Capex (32,006) (21,950) (36,302) (36,978) (45,419) (35,800) (25,840) (35,882)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 39,841 50,025 67,099 79,351 19,250 28,759 5,627 42,895

Investments 11,350 (4,576) (2,338) (3,470) 1,742 - - -

Non-operating Income 8,316 14,610 23,001 20,455 25,610 34,208 35,010 40,038

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (12,340) (11,916) (15,639) (19,993) (18,067) (1,592) 9,170 4,156

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (15,049) (1,028) 4,062 (3,728) 388 498 498 498

Interest Expenses (2,060) (815) (894) (3,457) (758) (1,329) (984) (582)

FCFE 22,732 48,182 70,267 72,166 18,880 27,928 5,141 42,811

Share Capital Issuance (2,298) 18,730 14,623 210 (6,998) - 0 (0)

Dividend (7,552) (10,573) (22,656) (24,166) (24,166) (16,952) (13,227) (22,864)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (26,959) 6,314 (4,865) (31,141) (31,534) (17,783) (13,713) (22,948)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 32,548 66,373 82,897 65,195 15,068 45,184 26,925 59,985

Closing Cash & Equivalents 127,066 193,439 276,336 341,531 356,599 401,784 428,708 488,693

Key Ratios

FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20P FY21E FY22E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 29.9 32.8 31.5 31.2 30.1 29.9 29.4 30.6

EBITDA Margin 13.4 15.4 15.2 15.1 12.8 9.7 8.5 12.1

EBIT Margin 8.5 10.5 11.4 11.7 9.3 5.0 3.4 7.6

APAT Margin 7.4 9.3 10.8 9.7 8.7 7.5 6.9 10.2

RoE 16.6 20.0 22.2 19.8 17.1 11.7 8.5 13.6

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 25.4 38.9 55.6 72.5 58.8 27.6 15.8 41.3

RoCE 16.2 19.9 22.0 20.0 16.9 11.8 8.6 13.5

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 23.8 27.9 26.2 29.8 28.3 20.0 21.4 21.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.1 4.6 5.1 6.0 5.6 4.9 4.4 5.1

Inventory (days) 19.1 19.9 17.5 14.5 14.1 16.0 18.0 16.4

Debtors (days) 7.8 8.4 6.4 6.7 9.8 11.0 13.0 12.0

Other Current Assets (days) 20.8 25.4 20.1 17.9 15.2 18.6 23.5 21.8

Payables (days) 55.0 64.8 61.7 63.7 53.9 64.3 69.1 65.9

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 12.1 10.0 12.7 13.8 14.3 17.0 20.8 18.7

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (19.4) (21.1) (30.4) (38.5) (29.1) (35.7) (35.4) (34.4)

Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.9) (2.2) (2.6) (2.8) (3.2) (5.5) (7.8) (5.4)

Net D/E (x) (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)

Interest Coverage (x) 20.6 74.4 86.7 26.9 105.3 28.4 22.4 97.9

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 122.9 177.6 243.4 255.7 248.4 187.1 146.0 252.4

CEPS 204.7 271.0 329.5 347.0 348.3 303.9 254.1 363.0

Dividend 25.0 35.0 75.0 80.0 80.0 56.1 43.8 75.7

Book Value 784.9 989.5 1,206.3 1,382.7 1,527.9 1,658.8 1,761.0 1,937.7

VALUATION

P/E (x) 41.0 28.3 20.7 19.7 20.3 26.9 34.5 20.0

P/BV (x) 6.4 5.1 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.6

EV/EBITDA (x) 20.8 14.9 12.1 9.8 10.6 15.3 20.0 11.5

EV/Revenues (x) 2.8 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4

OCF/EV (%) 5.1 5.4 8.3 9.9 5.5 5.8 2.9 7.6

FCF/EV (%) 2.9 3.8 5.4 6.7 1.7 2.6 0.5 4.1

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 1.5 3.2 4.6 4.7 1.2 1.8 0.3 2.8

Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.5

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Page | 7

Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

10-Jul-19 5,945 BUY 6,780

29-Jul-19 5,806 NEU 5,820

22-Sep-19 6,592 NEU 6,430

11-Oct-19 6,699 NEU 6,430

24-Oct-19 7,391 NEU 6,770

9-Jan-20 7,035 NEU 6,770

28-Jan-20 6,997 NEU 7,280

2-Mar-20 6,283 ADD 7,330

20-Apr-20 5,507 ADD 5,810

14-May-20 5,035 BUY 5,810

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

4,000

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Page 8: 14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Maruti Suzuki Suzuki... · We upgrade Maruti Suzuki to a BUY as we believe that the OEM is expected to gain market share in the current downturn,

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Maruti Suzuki: Results Review 4QFY20

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