Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to

successful national adaptation plans

Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme

Consulting

Side-event: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and financeSBSTA 40 - Bonn Germany - 7 June 2014

Agricultural adaptation: Are countries ready?

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

IPCC: Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are more common than positive ones

Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

IPCC: Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to

climate change

Note: Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels

Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014 Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Growing demand and pressure on agriculture

• US $70 billion to $100 billion a year is needed between 2010 and 2050 to adapt to a 2oC warmer world (World Bank, 2011)

• US$83 - $90 billion annual agricultural investment gap in the agricultural sector of developing countries, to meet food security needs up to 2050 (FAO 2011, Global Harvest Initiative 2011)

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

How NAPs evolved

• Established in 2010 (Cancún) by the UNFCCC. Purpose:Ø Facilitate effective medium- and long-term adaptation planning

and implementation in developing countries, in particular LDCs (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1)

• Adaptation Committee est. under Cancun Adaptation Framework. Purpose:

Ø Implement enhanced action on adaptation and facilitation of NAPs by non-LDC developing country Parties. Contributes to (not duplicate work of) the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) to support LDC national adaptation plan processes and the SBI on the work programme on loss and damage.

• LEG Technical Guidelines for NAPs: released 2012.

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

NAPAs and NAPs

COP 17 in Durban defined NAP process objectives (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1):(a) “reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience,” and(b) ” facilitate integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate”.…And recognised that adaptation planning will be “continuous, progressive and iterative.”

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

NAPAs and NAPs

2013. NAPAs and NAPS in Least Developed Countries. IIED LDC Paper Series.

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Countries reviewed

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

10 country workshop

• 37 policy makers, 10 different countries • two-day workshop on November 13-14, 2013 at COP in Warsaw,

Poland

NAP Dashboard

Source: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture. CCAFS Report No. 10

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Areas of concern:

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

• Many countries lack consistent, comprehensive and coordinated approaches in their vulnerability and risk assessments (affects ranking)

• Most of the countries conducted impact assessments—the foundation of the planning process—on a purely sectoral basis

• Cross- or multisectoral analyses to prioritize adaptation actions can be useful, many countries have difficulties performing such strategic studies

• Most did not assess the economic implications of climate risks, which compromises the design of adaptation strategies and measures:

Ø Kenya: Annual cost of climate change impacts USD $1 to 3 billion/yr. by 2030.• Institutional frameworks and governance structures are lacking to effectively

coordinate and implement adaptation activities, particularly cross-sectoral ones• Many adaptation and food security programs currently being implemented are

not well integrated into a broader national strategy, and are often driven by bilateral and/or multilateral funding sources.

The adaptation finance gap

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Identification of barriers and conflicts basis for assessing future research and capacity needs:

Workshop results:

Barrier Frequency

Lack of organization in access to finance 5

Lack of dedicated finance instruments for CC at national level 5

Insufficient consideration of climate issues in national policies and programmes

4

Unclear funding for implementation 3

Inadequate appreciation of investments in adaptation 3

Lack of long-series climate data 2

Lack of baseline data/information 2

High cost of international expertise, infrastructure and tools for climate research

2

Need for financial planning 2

Success in cross- or multisectoral planning:

• Nepal (NAPA): “Thematic working groups” – Agriculture and Food Security, Forest and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy, Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, Urban Settlements and Infrastructure. Stakeholder comprised, identified priority activities + combined project profiles.

• Ghana: “Akropong Approach” – results in cross-sectoral project plan. Logical framework analysis + multi-criteria analysis to rank importance of activities.

• Tanzania’s 2012 “Guidelines for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into National Sectoral Policies, Plans and Programmes of Tanzania,” issued by the Vice President’s Office.

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Design of institutional structures should consider who can have greatest influence in adaptation and NAP policy environment:• OECD experience: Success of adaptation plans and measures may

be attributed more to their prominence in national-level priorities and commitment than where such plans sit in the organizational structure of government (Mullan et al. 2013)

• Ethiopia: coordination of climate change activities was moved from the National Meteorological Agency to the Office of the Prime Minister

• Kenya: the National Climate Change Framework Policy and a draft Bill being deliberated in Parliament envisions the National Climate Change Council (NCCC) being anchored in the Presidency, with the NCCC being chaired by the Deputy President.

Necessary influence and leverage for NAPs:

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Workshop: Most relevant actors and institutions to influence NAP

policy environment

Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Recommendations

• Bring local levels into planning and prioritization, where much climate adaptation implementation occurs.

• Governance institutions need to be adaptive, in order to adjust response measures as new information on climate impacts develops over time.

• Developing countries and LDCs need to strengthen capacity to identify and rank climate risks and prioritize response activities.

• Identify sources of NAP implementation finance during the planning phase.

– Implementation funding should be separate from NAP planning.

– Devote some national budgetary allocations towards implementation (stronger commitment to outcomes and more effective for mainstreaming)

• Increased capacity for integrated approaches to adaptation planning

– Key for relationships and trade-offs between sectors + climate adaptation and mitigation synergies

• Countries should widen stakeholder engagement in assessment, design, implementation and monitoring of adaptation plans, particularly the private sector, which is critical in many contexts for implementation. Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national

adaptation plans – SBSTA, June 2014

Thank you!

Gabrielle KissingerPrincipal, Lexeme Consulting

gabrielle@lexemeconsulting.com

Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture UNFCCC SB 40 in Bonn, Germany

By David C. Kaluba

National Coordinator-Interim SecretariatMinistry of Finance –Zambia

2014

REPUBLICREPUBLIC OF ZAMBIAOF ZAMBIA

What are Development Priorities

Strong Economic Growth…GNI per capita: US$1,280/yearGDP Growth: 6.4%

Population 13 million61% ruralLand: 750,000 km2 Two large river basins: Zambezi and CongoThe name is derived from river Zambezi

But Growth is Uneven… Poverty level in rural areas: 77% (59% at national level)UN HDI: 150 out of 169

Example 2. Identify Climate Change Risks on Development

Over past 30 years, floods and droughts have cost Zambia US$13.8 billion – equivalent to 0.4 % of annual GDP growth

In the absence of adaptation, rainfall variability could keep an additional 300,000 more Zambians below the poverty line

Climate variability could cost Zambia US$4.3 billion in lost GDP over the next decade, reducing annual growth by 0.9%

Impact on the Most Vulnerable

Women-headed Households, the Elderly, Incapacitated, and those taking care of AIDS-orphans are most vulnerable. Single or divorced male-headed HHs are also highly vulnerable (due to malnutrition)

When hit with floods or droughts, vulnerable HHs cope by reducing food or essential expenditures (health, education). They also increase their level of indebtness and rely further on casual labor – however, this is mostly food-for-works which is similarly impacted by the weather.

Many traditional coping mechanisms (e.g. indigenous early warning, two house system) are no longer working due to weather unpredictability and changing economic conditions

Zambia: Major Exposure to Climate

Droughts FloodsFood Needs Areas – 2005/06 Drought

The Southern part of Zambia is generally considered to be the most vulnerable

Green Climate Fund- Readiness

Project-based and programmatic approaches in accordance with climate change strategies and plans, such as low-emission development strategies or plans, nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs), national adaptation plans of action (NAPAs), national adaptation plans (NAPs) and other related activities

NAPs as Readiness tool

To reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience;

To facilitate the integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate

LINKAGES ARE IMPORTANT

mainstream ed climate change into the most economically and vulnerable sectors of the economy in order to ensure sustainable economic development towards the attainment of Zambia’s Vision 2030Mainstreaming strengthened country ownership and drivenessLocal level Integrated Development Plans crucial to adaptation among the most vulnerable – processes commenced

Zambia’s Climate Change Programme Institutional Arrangements

Board (Ministries, House of Chiefs, Civil Society, Private Sector, Academia)

Technical CommitteeSecretariat-CCFU

Theme 2:Mitigation/Low Carbon Developmente.g. CDM, UN-REDD

Theme 1:Adaptation & Disaster Risk Reductione.g. PPCR, NAPA

Theme 3:Research & Development, Capacity Buildinge.g. ILUA, Technology Development

Theme 4:Policy Development, Mainstreaming & Negotiationse.g. UNFCCC, CIFs

Theme 5Finance:Identification & Resource Mobilizatione.g. Adaptation Fund, Carbon Tax & others

Technical Committee Platforms:1) Resilient Agriculture2) Resilient Infrastructure

Constituency: Implementing Ministries, Local Government, Community Groups, NGOs, Private Sector

Community groups, NGOs

Committee of Ministers

Future Climate Change Council

TC Platforms: 3) REDD

TC Platforms: 4) Climate

Information TC Platforms:

6) Management and Finance

TC Platforms: 5) Others

The main themes of the programme are supported by stakeholder platforms

1. PARTICIPATORY ADAPTATION (Examples)

Current Plans now include:

100% Government baseline

Climate Resilient Plans would also include:

+ 30% increment

Livestock and poultry rearing Climate resilient agriculture, livestock and fisheries

Agriculture inputs Natural resources management

Wells, water supply systems Water harvesting, flood control

Education and health facilities Retrofitting/construction to climate resilient standards

Feeder community roads Upgrading or retrofitting to climate resilient standards

Community facilities Community preparedness

This would promote community-driven, climate resilient development based on decentralized budget processes

Targeting Gender and Vulnerable Groups

• As a condition for eligibility, at least 50% of the activities funded under climate resilient plans will be targeted to socially vulnerable groups – women-headed households, elderly, and the incapacitated.

• This pre-targeting would be mapped through a Comprehensive Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis, as per standard guidelines of the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit

• Youth groups would also be targeted due to their access to sub-standard land (typically away from irrigated areas)

• In districts with active cash (child) transfers, the SPCR would link with the social protection program for complementary support (through social infrastructure, micro-credit, and assistance to producer groups)

For More Information, please contactdckaluba@juno.com or dckaluba05@gmail.com

Slide 1

Development partner perspective on agriculture and adaptation

David HowlettUK Department for International Development (DFID) 

7th June 2014, Bonn

Women and children are often affected the most by

climate

Slide 2

• Recognise the problem and challenges

• Need to have evidence on what to invest in and policies to improve

• Want to know if these are successful

What is needed to adapt to a changing climate

Three points

• Set up the International Climate Fund in 2011

• £3.83 bn over four years:– 50% on adaptation– 30% on low carbon development

– 20% on forestry• Agriculture a priority

Slide 3

What is UK doing?

A changing climate will affect the poor the most

Slide 4

• Enhance farmers livelihoods • Produce the food farmers & consumers need

• Improve people’s nutrition – especially that of women and children

• Help farmers adapt and build resilience to current & future climate risks

• Sustain the health of the land and increases its productivity

• Avoid loss of forests & biodiversity • Sequester carbon in soil and reduce emissions of GHGs from agric.

We want to:

Irrigation helping Kenyan farmer increase her income

Slide 5

• £150m to IFAD’s Adaptation for Smallholder Agriculture Programme (ASAP) to benefit six million farmers, men and women and help build their resilience to climate change, and help improve their incomes.

• £140m Building Resilience and Adapting to Climate Extremes and Disasters Programme (BRACED) to increase the resilience of over 5m people in the Sahel, other African countries and South Asia A Father and son escaping floods in

Pakistan

Two examples

Supporting  Climate  Change  Adaptation

Pradeep  Kurukulasuriya  Head,  Climate  Change  Adaptation    

UNDP-­‐GEF

Laos/LDCF

Vanuatu/SCCF Niger/LDCF

Cambodia/LDCF Guatemala/SPA

Vanuatu/SCCF Laos/SCCF

Our  Journey

Adaptation  in  Practice

Lessons  Learned

The  Way  Forward

Empowering  Communities

De-­‐risking  through  Public  

Policy

Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise

Empowering  Communities

Lessons  Learned

Cambodia/LDCF

Bhutan/LDCF

Zimbabwe/SCCF

Niger/LDCF

Samoa/SCCF

Rwanda/LDCF

Bangladesh/LDCF

Empowering  Communities

De-­‐risking  barriers

Lessons  Learned

FS  Micronesia/SCCF

Lesotho/NAP-­‐GSP

Afghanistan/NAP-­‐GSPLesotho/NAP-­‐GSP

De-­‐risking  through  Public  Policy

Bhutan/NAP-­‐GSP

Zimbabwe/SCCF De-­‐risking  through  Public  Policy

Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise

Lessons  Learned

Namibia/SPA

Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise

Cambodia/LDCF

Nurturing  and  Promoting  Enterprise

Our  Journey

Adaptation  in  Practice

Lessons  Learned

The  Way  Forward

Integrated  Approaches

Cambodia/LDCF

Ethiopia/LDCF

Samoa/LDCF

Vietnam/LDCF

The  Way  Forward

Evidence-­‐Based  Learning

Samoa/SPA  Namibia/SPA  

Bolivia/SPA  

The  Way  Forward

(a) Enhance  the  capacity  of  policy  makers  to  identify  appropriate  mix  of  public  instruments  including  public  finance  to  catalyze  larger  private  investments !

(b) Create  an  enabling  environment  including  national/sub-­‐national/  sectoral  policy  frameworks,  domestic  technical  expertise,  financing  channels,  and  administrative  procedures !

(c) Attract  innovative  finance  to  provide  additional  financial  incentives

(II)  to  identify  barriers  to  priority  investments

(III)  identify  risks  generated  by  these  barriers  that  prevent  the  requisite  investment

(IV)  what  are  the  de-­‐risking  instruments

(V)  What  are  source  of  finance  to  support  de-­‐risking  strategy

(I)    Assist  Governments  (e.g.  through  national  adaptation  plans)  to  identify  priorities  from  perspective  of:  (a)preserving  existing  infrastructure,  businesses  and  livelihoods;    (b)new  business  opportunities    (c)no  regret  options

Theory  of  Change The  Way  Forward

Scaling    Up    

Morocco/SPA  

Niger/LDCF  

The  Way  Forward

!Transforming    

1,800,000  million  lives  directly  

!