Animal agriculture adaptation planning guide (climate change)

David Schmidt, University of Minnesota

David Smith, Texas A&M

Elizabeth Whitefi eld, Washington State University

AdaptingCHANGING CL IMATE

A Planning Guide

TO A

Agriculture is changing rapidly. Indus-

try consolidation, vertical integration,

globalization, integration of technology,

food security, genetic modifi cations,

rapidly expanding world population,

and a variety of other changes have

offered a variety of opportunities as well

as challenges for farmers. A changing

climate is yet another challenge that

farmers and the agricultural industry

need to address through both long and

short term planning.

About this planning guideThis planning guide leads livestock

farmers or advisors through four steps

to strategically plan and prepare for

a changing climate. The document

includes an explanation of each step

along with guidance on planning for a

specifi c farm. These four steps require:

• Assessing current climate trends

• Evaluating farm vulnerabilities and

opportunities based on these climate

trends

• Selecting appropriate options to prepare

and adapt to these climate trends

• Compiling all of the information in a

farm-specifi c climate adaptation plan

This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Step 1: Identify Critical Climate Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Key Climate Change Data Considerations . . . . . . 5Finding Climate Trend Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Step 2: Evaluate Farm Vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Overview of Impacts or Consequences . . . . . . . . . 9Critical Weather Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change . . . . 13

Step 3: Identify Adaptation Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . 15Reactive or Proactive Risk Management . . . . . . . 15Evaluate Adaptation Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Step 4: Implement the Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Appendix A. Adaptation Plan Template . . . . . . . . . . 23Weather Trending Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25Impacts and Vulnerabilities Worksheet . . . . . . . . 27Management Options Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . .Management Options Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . .Management Options Worksheet 29Implementation Worksheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Appendix B. Example Adaptation Plan . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Appendix C. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Climate Trend Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Today, U.S. farmers produce 256% more

food with 2% less inputs than in 1950 (Amer-

ican Farm Bureau). However, agricultural

production remains an economically risky

business. More than any other business, the

risks in agriculture come from the uncertainty

and variability in weather. Fortunately, current

farming systems are typically robust enough to

accommodate nearly all but the most extreme

weather conditions. Over time, farming prac-

tices have developed to buffer environmental

impacts. Northern regions use shelters to

protect animals from cold and snow. Roofed

and shade structures are used in Southern

regions to protect animals from direct sunlight.

Irrigation systems are used in drier regions to

produce high corn yields on a consistent basis.

When environmental conditions (typically

temperature and precipitation) fall within the

normal bounds of variability our production

systems are generally profi table.

The challenge comes when weather

conditions become more variable or more

frequently fall outside the normal bounds

for which our farming systems are designed.

The systematic approach outlined in this

guide can be used by livestock and poultry

producers who are interested in developing

a plan to deal with a changing climate. The

approach uses four steps: assessing local

climate trends, evaluating the impacts from or

the vulnerability of the farm to these climate

trends, evaluating options to cost effectively

reduce these impacts, and fi nally combining

this information into a simple plan that can

be followed and updated as needed.

This guide provides both background

information on these critical elements of

planning along with a worksheet to help

organize a planning document.

Introduction

1

The climate is always changing: ice ages,

extreme periods of drought (Figure 1), long

warming trends, long cooling trends, etc.

Everyone agrees that today’s climate is differ-

ent from past climates just as the future

climates will be different than what we have

today. The problem is that society’s infrastruc-

ture (e.g. transportation system, population

centers, buildings, agricultural systems) are

based on the climate of the last 100 years or

so. As climate changes, our current infrastruc-

ture systems may not be adequate, especially

those systems that are most vulnerable to

changes in weather such as agriculture.

Climate refers to average weather con-

ditions over a long period of time, whereas

weather is what is happening when we look

out the window. Unfortunately, our expe-

1900

1850: Calforniabecomes state

Medieval megadroughts: The West experienced two abnormally dryperiods lasting close to 200 years each during the Middle Ages.

Evidence from tree rings shows that drought was historically much more widespreadin the American West than now, while the 20th century was wetter than normal.Percentage of the West a�ected by drought from 800 A.D. to 2000:

A 200-year drought?DRIER

AVERAGE

YEARSource: E.R. Cook et al., Earth-Science Reviews KARL KAHLER/BAY AREA NEWS GROUP

60%

40

20

0

WETTER

180017001600150014001300120011001000900800 2000

Figure 1. Historic drought in Western U.S.

Step 1Identify Critical Climate Trends

The challenge comes when weather conditions

become more variable or more frequently fall outside

the normal bounds for which our farming systems

are designed.

3

rience of recent and local weather often

overshadows the reality of how the climate is

really changing. For instance, unseasonably

cool weather in Nebraska “this past month”,

does not suggest the planet is cooling any

more than the drought in Texas “last year”

suggested the planet is getting dryer.

Climatologists fi nd meaningful trends

in climate ONLY as they observe weather

data over long periods of time and over large

geographic areas. Climate trends can be eval-

uated over periods of ten or twenty years, but

are typically evaluated over several decades or

hundreds of years. While climate variability

may be observed in as short as a few years,

climate change is typically evaluated over

several decades to hundreds of years.

The analysis of climate over various time

periods is important as it provides different

information. For example, Figure 2 shows

the annual Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index

(PHDI) for California. The left graph shows

the 15-year period between 1998 and 2013

and right graph is a 128-year period, from

1885 to 2013. Both graphs show an increase

in drought conditions. However, the trend

is more dramatic in the shorter time period.

Which referenced time period is more real-

istic or useful when planning for the future?

“Both” as each trend tells something a little

different. The long-term trend gives some

confi dence that the last few years are not a

random occurrence and the short term sug-

gests an even greater potential for dry

conditions in the near future.

Figure 2 also shows the common cyclical

patterns of wet and dry periods. Several

years of above normal precipitation fol-

lowed several years of below normal. These

multi-year trends are also important to

note—especially in short term planning.

Another observation with these graphs

is that there is rarely a “normal year” as the

“normal” is made up of averages of wetter

and drier years.

Mixed in with these normal variations

in climate conditions are extremes. There

are years where the PDHI is far away from

Figure 2. Palmer Hydrologic Drought graphs (NOAA NCDC, Climate at a Glance)

4

the average and outside of the normal vari-

ation (e.g. Figure 2, year 1986). Extremes

in temperature or precipitation are the

most challenging as they lie outside of the

normal bounds of the design parameters for

our current farming systems. For example,

manure storage and runoff control systems

are typically designed for 25-year, 24-hour

events. Large 50- or 100-year events over-

whelm these systems causing signifi cant or

catastrophic failures.

Climate models can provide additional

information about future climate conditions.

Climate models are based on fundamental

scientifi c principles and include all known

drivers and variables of climate change—both

natural and man-made. However, there is

uncertainty in climate model predictions,

just as there is uncertainty in predicting

stock market performance despite all the data

analysis. Yet, this information helps inform

investment decisions.

While historical climate data and climate

models cannot precisely predict future climate

conditions, the information from both sets of

data can provide clues to the future climate

that should be used in farm planning.

Key Climate Change Data ConsiderationsThe following is a list of important con-

siderations when evaluating climate changes.

• Climate trends vary over time. Long- and

short-term historic data must be evaluated

simultaneously along with future climate

predictions. Short-term assessments help

in planning for next year or the following

Photo credit: ww

w.agweb.com

5

Figure 4. Changes in extreme precipitation events (events over 1 inch per 24 hours). Source: National Climate

Assessment, 2014.

Figure 3. Change in frost free season (days) from the 2014 National Climate Assessment.

Observed increase in frost-free season length Observed increase in frost-free season length 1991-2012 (relative to 1901-1960).1991-2012 (relative to 1901-1960).

6

year. Long-term trends and future predic-

tions help guide farm business planning

over the next 15-25 years.

• Climate trends vary geographically. Local

climate trends provide guidance for farm

specifi c planning. Trends over larger geo-

graphic regions (national and global) help

shape decisions on future markets for farm

imports or exports. For instance, heat and

drought conditions in New Zealand in

2013, a globally important dairy region,

had a signifi cant impact on global milk

prices (Hannam, 2013).

• Climate trends are both annual and seasonal.

In some regions, annual average precip-

itation or temperature is not changing.

Other regions are seeing signifi cant shifts

in seasonal temperature and precipitation.

• Climate trends have both indirect and direct

impacts on animals. Increased nighttime

low temperatures can have a direct impact

on animal performance. Average tempera-

ture and precipitation changes can also have

an indirect infl uence on animal production

because of the impact these changes have

on crops andforage productions.

• Climate trends include the frequency

and intensity of extreme weather events.

Knowing average annual or seasonal

precipitation and temperature trends is

important, but possibly more important

are changes in the rainfall intensity (the

amount of rainfall per event) or the fre-

quency of these intense rainfall events.

The same is true for the frequency of

extreme heat events.

Finding Climate Trend DataA climate assessment should be as com-

plete and detailed as possible—considering

the most important climate conditions

that directly or indirectly impact animal

production. General climate trends can be

found in the National Climate Assessment

(http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/) with graphs http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/) with graphs http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

similar to those in Figures 3 and 4.

There are also online tools that can

provide climate trend details. NOAA’s

“Climate at a Glance” tool is a quick way of

evaluating historic trends over the last 100

years and allows for fi nding temperature or

precipitation trends on a monthly or seasonal

basis. Figure 5 shows a graph of summer

temperatures in the Midwest produced using

the “Climate at a Glance” tool. The graph

includes the 100-year trend line, but the tool

can also show trends over other time periods.

Another useful tool that can provide a

variety of weather data at a local, regional

or state level is the cli-MATE tool from the

Midwest Regional Climate Center (Midwest Regional Climate Center (Midwest Regional Climate Center http://

7

mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/). This tool has the mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/). This tool has the mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

ability to generate daily threshold data

and min-max data which is useful when

evaluating trends in heat stress potential.

Another option for collecting this data is to

ask your state climate offi ce. There are also

six Regional Climate Centers that may be able

to provide useful trend information (NOAA,

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ customer- support/

partnerships/ regional- climate- centers).

Worksheet 1 in Appendix 1 offers a way

to summarize the critical climate trends

for animal agriculture on both a seasonal

and annual basis. Use the sources above to

determine any trends in your region. Include

any additional notes that might be helpful.

Figure 5. Midwest average annual temperature trend from the 2015 National Climate Assessment.

5

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8

The next question to answer is “Which

changes in climate represent the biggest

risks or levels of concern?” Risk is a measure

of the probability and consequence of

uncertain future events (Yoe, 2012). This

involves estimating both the probability

of some event occurring (e.g. heat wave)

and the consequences of a specifi c event

(e.g. death loss, reduction in productivity,

damages). This is no easy task.

Overview of Impacts or ConsequencesGeneral consequences of heat and humid-

ity on animal agriculture are fairly clear. A

study in 2003 (St. Pierre et al) estimated losses

to the animal industry to be $2.4 billion per

year due to decreased performance, increased

mortality, and decreased reproduction asso-

ciated with heat and humidity. There are

likely more indirect losses not accounted for.

More recently, the 2014 drought in Cali-

fornia resulted in a 3% loss in beef production

and a 1.5% loss in milk production with

estimated total direct losses to the agricultural

industry of $1.5 billion (Howitt et al., 2014).

There are also impacts (consequences)

resulting from changes in climate variability.

South Dakota ranchers are familiar with bliz-

zards in December, but not in early October

as was experienced in 2012. Animals were

not yet acclimated to the cold. Also, the rain

started before the snow causing the ground

to become wet and muddy, adding to the

animal stress. Over 7,500 cattle deaths were

reported from this unexpected weather event

(Zhorov, 2013).

Summaries of these national, regional,

or industry-wide impacts are useful, but

assessments are also needed at the individual

farm scale. On an individual farm, conse-

Step 2Evaluate Farm Vulnerabilities

“Risk is a measure of the probability and conse-

quence of uncertain future events.” Yoe (2012)

9

quences of weather events vary by species,

geographic location, existing management

and infrastructure. Any assessment of weather

impacts must be seasonally specifi c and

consider individual phases or segments of

their operation or business (cow calf vs feeder

operation) and geographic conditions within

a farm (e.g. pasture, cropland or specifi c

buildings prone to fl ooding).

Attaching some economic value to

these impacts is important yet challenging.

Historic on-farm records are the easiest and

most common source of information. Farms

with good records can make some economic

impact assessment based on animal produc-

tivity during warm periods, wet periods, or

extreme weather events and can then use

this information to assess impacts for future

climate events.

If there is no farm-specifi c data, historic

data from other farms or regions could be

used. For instance, to quantify impacts of

heat stress on beef feedlots, it may be helpful

to look at the report by Busby and Loy (1995)

that documented cattle death loss of 4.8% in a

13-county area in Iowa for a 2-day heat event

on July 11 and 12, 1995. This 4.8% death loss

could be an estimate used for an early season

heat wave in some other region of the U.S.

Critical Weather ImpactsThe following is a review of how some

very familiar weather events can directly or

indirectly impact a farm.

• Heat and Humidity: Depending on the

timing and duration, heat and humidity

impacts animal production in a variety

of ways including reproduction, feed effi -

ciency, milk production, animal illness,

grain and forage production, increase in

pests or timing of pest impacts, animal

death, changes in nutrient value of crops,

worker health, etc. Temperature Humidity

Indexes (THI) are used to help assess animal

stress for the different combinations of

temperature and humidity as each animal

species and stage of production are impacted

differently. Even small changes, such as

warmer nighttime temperatures, can have

a signifi cant impact in animal production.

High heat and humidity on a larger scale,

national or global, can impact the price

of feed supplies or price of farm products.

• Precipitation: Wetter conditions, dryer

conditions, intensity of rainfall or timing

of rainfall all impact animal production.

Obviously, drought can lead to crop and

forage losses, but also results in soil loss

through wind erosion. Soil loss also occurs

with large or intense rainfall events. This

soil loss has a long-term impact on farm-

10

land productivity. Manure storage and

manure application can be challenging

with large precipitation events. Muddy

pastures, feedlots, and roads also create

production and health challenges.

• Extreme Events: Extreme weather such as

widespread fl ooding, drought, blizzards or

tornados all can lead to catastrophic losses

on the farm. Flooding can impact local

bridges or roads causing logistic challenges

for transporting feed and supplies to the

farm or for exporting farm products. In

addition, fl ooding may impact employees’

ability to get to work. Power outages, wind

damage, snow loads, etc. create additional

challenges to farm operations.

• Climate Variability: It is often not the event

itself that causes the problem but the timing

or circumstances that cannot always be

quantifi ed by climate data. Early season high

temperatures or cold temperatures may not

be outside the normal ranges of temperatures

but can be devastating to animals.

The process of developing a climate change

adaptation plan requires a systematic approach

to assessing the risk. One systematic approach

follows the fl ow of the farm: Farm Inputs,

Production, Logistics, and Farm Exports.

• Farm Inputs: Farm inputs include items

such as feed, water, young stock, veterinary

supplies, fuel, and electricity. Animal feed is

one of the most critical farm inputs. Local

grain, forage or pasture production can be

devastated by heat, fl ooding or drought.

Regional or national climate changes (hot,

dry, wet, cool) can result in increased or

decreased cost of feed. Higher tempera-

tures increase animal water consumption

requirements. This increased need for water

may occur concurrently with limited water

availability in cases where there is both

heat and drought. With high temperatures

and drought conditions, farm ponds can

also become toxic with algae or dry up

completely. The timing of natural stream

fl ows may change due to snow melt or

changing rainfall patterns. Young stock

coming on to the farm may have been

raised in areas impacted by drought or

heat, or may have been exposed to other

11

pathogens or pests. Their weight or health

may be impacted. Delivery of young stock

to farms can be delayed because of high

temperatures or extreme storm events.

Delivery of other supplies to the farm can

be impacted by extreme weather as storms

can impact roads and bridges inhibiting

the movement of other supplies brought

into the farm such as medicine.

• Animal Production: Animal production

includes all aspects of maintaining good

animal health and productivity. Impacts

of heat and humidity on animal physiology

are well documented and summarized by

(Nardone et al, 2010). This includes reductions

in feed intake, feed effi ciency, reproduction

changes and even death loss. In addition, heat

stress can make animals more vulnerable to

pathogens and various diseases.

• Logistics: Farm logistics include manure

handling, ventilation systems, structures,

employees, movement of feed to animals

or of animals to feed, but also include

other activities, equipment and processes

to keep the farm operational. Many farm

activities, such as moving feed to the farm,

moving young stock to the farm, moving

products from the farm, feeding and water-

ing animals, keeping animals comfortable,

moving manure to the fi elds, etc. depend

upon weather conditions. Flooding creates

problems for manure management due to

concerns about overtopping of manure

storages and creating soggy soils for land

application. Flooding can also take out

roads and bridges that may impact labor

supply or moving feed or animals into or

out of the farm. High temperatures may

impact when animals can be fed or moved.

Electric power outages often accompany

these extreme events—adding additional

management challenges.

• Farm Exports: The price for farm products

is critical to farm profi tability. Market price

of these products (e.g. meat, milk, eggs)

is often a function of climatic conditions

across the globe. Local drought or fl ooding

may cause a regional increase or decrease in

commodity prices. Large-scale drought may

increase feed prices which result in a sell off

12

of animals which decrease the price of the

farm products. This might be followed by

a reduced inventory and increasing prices.

Third party evaluators, such as Extension

Agents (Educators) or farm consultants with

knowledge of the farm operation as well as experi-

ence with the interactions of climate change and

animal agriculture may be in the best position

to objectively assess farm climate vulnerabilities.

Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change

Understanding or quantifying the con-

sequences of a weather event is diffi cult

but not nearly as challenging as estimating

the probability of their occurrence. Unlike

insurance companies who calculate the prob-

ability of a person being in a car accident

based on records of millions of drivers and

Table 1. Example of recording key vulnerabilities for specifi c weather events.

Impact CategoryImpact CategoryImpact

Projected WeatherImpact Summary/Consequences (Specifi c to season and phase of production)Impact Summary/Consequences (Specifi c to season and phase of production)Impact Summary/Consequences

Farm Inputs

Decreased summer precipitation

Currently all cropland is sensitive to limited rainfall.Pasture areas use farm ponds for drinking water.Pasture areas do not have adequate moisture in the fall.

Higher heat/humidity

Early spring warming changes pasture grass mix.

More frequent flooding

Heifer pasture #17B is prone to flooding.

Animal Production

Heavier spring rains

Muddy pastures reduce weight gain.


High humidity at night limits cooling of animals.Dairy heat stress is already an issue in August. Nighttime cooling is critical. We are already seeing problems with heat stress impacting production.

Logistics Heavier spring rains

Manure storage is limited. Heavy rainfall will likely result in overtopping of manure storage.


Ventilation system can’t keep up during hot weather.Animal transportation is already a problem due to hot weather.

Extremes No back-up generator.Some pastures are very remote and difficult to access if there is flooding.

Exports All weather I market only one commodity to one buyer. This makes me vulnerable to local weather events and global weather extremes.

13

miles traveled, extreme climate events are

rare. Although there is some data available

for things like 25-year or 100-year rainfall

events this does not really represent the

probability of site-specifi c fl ooding. There is

no good data on return frequencies of other

events such as extreme heat or humidity. We

can only look at recent weather trends and

make reasonable estimates of probabilities.

For example, if it is clear that fl ooded

pastures are a current issue on your farm and

weather projections indicate a trend toward

more intense precipitation events, then this

should be a priority for adaptation.

Worksheet 2 in Appendix 1 provides an

example of how to combine impacts with

anticipated trends in weather events. The fi rst

column is the list of the impact categories.

The second column lists the projected trends

in weather events for your local area as noted

in Step 1: Identify Critical Climate Trends. The

third column would provide information on

Step 2: Evaluate Farm Vulnerabilities. Try to

provide as much detail to these impacts as

possible including economics. For instance,

will this type of event result a 1% death loss

or a 10% reduction in productivity over a

6-month period? Often there is not good data

on these losses but only educated guesses.

When fi lling out Worksheet 2, think about

weather impacts on the farm that are currently

causing a loss in productivity or economic

losses. For instance, there may already be

problems with high temperatures impacting

productivity. It is OK to list these current issues.

14

Reactive or Proactive Risk Management“The goal of risk management is

often said to include scientifi cally sound,

cost-effective, integrated actions that reduce

risks while taking into account economic,

environmental, social, cultural, ethical,

political, and legal conditions.” (Yoe, 2012).

Modern farming has reduced risk over time

by developing sophisticated ventilation

systems to deal with heat, irrigation systems

to aid in times of limited rainfall, and mod-

ifi cations to crop genetics to protect against

weeds, diseases, drought or temperature

extremes. Other tools such as fl ood insur-

ance or forward contracting of commodities

help reduce agricultural business risks. This

type of adaptation to manage risk is driven

by a response to historic climate trends or

recent weather events and is referred to as

reactive adaptation.

Many fear that responsive adaptation

may not keep pace with the current pace

of climate change (Walthall, 2012). This

is especially true with longer term invest-

ments such as buildings, herd genetics, or

management of pastures and grasslands.

These longer term investments must antic-

ipate environmental conditions for the

next fi ve, ten, twenty or thirty years. For

example, given the current and projected

drought conditions in California, would

this be a good location for a new dairy facil-

ity? Adaptation based on projected climate

conditions is called proactive adaptation.

Evaluate Adaptation Strategies.Producers are familiar with the many

technologies and management practices

that can reduce the impacts of a variety of

rainfall and temperature conditions. Diet,

Step 3Identify Adaptation

Strategies

“ The goal of risk management is often said to

include scientifi cally sound, cost-effective, integrated

actions that reduce risks while taking into account

economic, environmental, social, cultural, ethical,

political, and legal conditions.” Yoe (2012)

15

ventilation and cooling, feed procurement,

feed management, crop or animal genetics,

etc. all qualify. These risk management

strategies must be evaluated on the basis of

costs and benefi ts or return on investment

(ROI). ROI is calculated as the fi nancial gain

from the investment minus the cost of the

investment divided by the cost of the invest-

ment. For example, if $10 is invested and

results in a gain of $20, the ROI is:

($20 - $10) = 1

$10

An ROI above zero indicates a positive return

on the investment.

The problem is projecting this ROI with

all the uncertainties both in the future

climate and in the other multiple factors

in business operation. Also, in the case of

climate and weather, the investment decision

may not be based on an ROI above 0, but

rather a way to minimize the consequences.

For example, purchasing fl ood insurance

does not yield a positive ROI, but is a viable

risk management strategy That minimizes

economic losses in case of a fl ood.

Making decisions based on an uncertain

climate future is challenging. A quote from

the Iowa Beef Center Producer Survey by

Busby and Loy (1995) raises the challenge:

“How much can a feedlot operator spend

to protect against a weather event that

has occurred only six times in the last

101 years?” This is a critical question that

must be asked. However, another equally

critical question is, what if this heat wave

occurred on average every 10 years? 5 years?

16

or 2 years? The more frequent the impact,

the wiser or more necessary the investment

in some type of adaptation strategy.

However, the adaptation decision is typi-

cally even more complex as there is never just

one adaptation option. For instance, a shade

structure is only one option for keeping cattle

cool. There are also sprinkler systems, fans,

and misting systems along with changing herd

genetics for greater heat tolerance.

These climate adaptation decisions are

also not made without considering the many

other future uncertainties such as variability in

market prices, product demand, feed supply,

water availability, regulations, and other

parameters infl uencing farm profi tability.

Risk management requires a reasonable and

measured approach to this uncertainty and

careful evaluation of most likely scenarios.

Risk management or adaptation is not

a ‘one size fi ts all’ or a menu of options.

Rather, risk management is a continuum

of options that are farm specifi c. Some risk

management strategies offer signifi cant risk

Table 2. Examples of impacts and risk management options.

Impact ExampleAdaptation Options: Low CostAdaptation Options: Low CostAdaptation Options: Adaptation Options:

Long Term + More ExpensiveAdaptation Options: Long Term + More ExpensiveAdaptation Options:

Increase in higher intensity rainfall events damages cropland and pasture due to additional soil erosion

• Alternative pastures in rotation

• Alternative crops or plants

• Install terraces

Extended or extreme dry weather reducing forage in pastures

• Reduce animal density• Secure additional feed• Cover crops, drought tolerant forages with longer roots for grazing purposes

• Add more pasture land• Application of organic material (i.e., compost) to increase soil water holding capacity

Increased frequency of pest and weed pressure in field

• More intensive scouting • Change crop rotation• Crop/forage diversification

Increased potential of manure storage overtopping with variable timing and intensity of rainfall

• Maintain higher freeboard by pumping more frequently

• Find emergency option for pumping manure

• Add more manure storage

Unseasonable / frequent hot weather impacting animals

• Feed for hot weather• Install more fan capacity• Install sprinkling system• Reduce time in holding pen (dairy)

• Add evaporative cooling system• Invest in new cooling technologies

Farm is more frequently landlocked due to excessive or increased flood events

• Increase feed supply on hand • Add storage capacity for product (milk / eggs)

• Repair / upgrade farm access

17

reduction for very little cost while other

strategies are long term and require a large

investment. Strategies or options are a func-

tion of ‘most likely climate changes’ along

with site geography, current management,

current fi nances, long term and short-term

farm goals, personal preferences, cultural

beliefs, and other factors.

Worksheet 3 in Appendix 1 provides

examples of farm impacts along with adap-

tation or risk management options. Note that

the probability of these climate events, the

degree of impact of these events, and the costs

of the adaptation strategies are not provided.

Some of these strategies may be economi-

cally profi table with or without any change in

climate. For instance, good forage or pasture

management may be cost effective with or

without future changes in precipitation.

Pest management or scouting (Integrated

Pest Management) is also cost effective in

any climate situation. Maybe it is just more

emphasis or focus on this area of business.

Sometimes just the threat of climate change

may be a driver to make changes that are rea-

sonable under existing climatic conditions.

In addition, there are many low-cost

strategies that offer signifi cant protection

from negative impacts of climate change.

An adaptation strategy for early season heat

stress might be as simple as making sure

misting systems are operational in April

rather than waiting for July to do this annual

maintenance. This is a no-cost risk manage-

ment strategy requiring only good planning

and organization.

18

This planning guide is intended to stim-

ulate ideas that are site specifi c and will help

in both short and long-term planning to

reduce the risk of climate impacts. Although

the steps are sequential, it is important to

know that this type of planning is never static.

It is a constant cycle of identifying climate

trends, assessing potential impacts or farm

vulnerabilities, making and updating plans,

and then implementing adaptation strategies.

Here is a brief summary of the steps used

to develop an adaptation plan. These steps

are part of the process to develop a plan.

Implementing the plan is Step 4.

Step 4Implement the Plan

IDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDSIDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDSIDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDSIDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDSIDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDSIDENTIFY CLIMATE TRENDS

ASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTSASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTSASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTSASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTSASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTSASSESS POTENTIAL IMPACTS

CREATE ADAPTATION PLANCREATE ADAPTATION PLANCREATE ADAPTATION PLANCREATE ADAPTATION PLANCREATE ADAPTATION PLANCREATE ADAPTATION PLAN

IMPLEMENT THE PLANIMPLEMENT THE PLANIMPLEMENT THE PLANIMPLEMENT THE PLANIMPLEMENT THE PLANIMPLEMENT THE PLAN

19

Step 1: Identify Critical Climate Trends• Using the local or global climate

resources, identify the short- and long-

term climate trends.

• Determine the most likely climate scenar-

ios for one-, fi ve-, and ten-year periods.

Include seasonal trends in precipitation

and temperatures, length of growing

season, nighttime low temperatures,

drought frequency and any other weather

events deemed important.

• Document your source of information.

Step 2: Evaluate Farm Vulnerabilities• Consider potential impacts to: farm

inputs, animal production, logistics, and

farm exports.

• Try to estimate the damage cost for each

of the impacts on an annual basis.

• Identify the most likely and most critical

impacts.

Step 3: Identify Adaptation Strategies• Conduct a detailed evaluation of one or

two options to reduce the risk of each of

the critical impacts.

• Estimate the cost of a technology or practice

on an annual basis. Include additional

benefi ts from the implementation of a

technology that should also be included. For

instance, adding pasture area may have a

positive impact throughout the year on the

herd not just during a specifi c fl ood event.

These additional benefi ts should be noted.

Step 4: Implement the PlanThe objective of this fi nal step (Step 4) is

to create a concise plan that can be put into

action and updated annually. Here are some

key pieces to keep in mind with this plan. A

template of the fi nal plan is in Appendix 1.

• The plan must be simple, only one or two

pages. It must address the most critical

farm impacts and proposed adaptation

strategy.

• The plan should summarize key informa-

tion in Steps 1-3 in the planning followed

by a short list of action items.

Are there some more pieces of informa-

tion that need to be researched?

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Are there bids needed on equipment

costs for specifi c equipment?

Are there some farm management proce-

dures that need to be written or training

that needs to be done?

Add a timeline, if appropriate, to com-

plete the action items in the plan.

Add some guidance for returning to the

plan and reevaluating the climate impacts,

effectiveness of the adaptation strategies,

and any changes that are needed.

• Do not put this plan on the shelf. Put it

on the refrigerator in the break room! The

plan was developed with input from others

and contains valuable information. Share

the plan with the management team and

discuss implementation. Get it done!

• Try to document the effectiveness of the

changes made to address climate change.

• Summary: Although this process and guide

was written as a stand-alone planning

guide for adapting to climate changes, all

of this planning and evaluation should

be integrated into the overall business

planning for the farm. Decisions for

farm expansion, herd genetics, planting

dates, crop genetics, employee training,

etc. should always be made considering a

changing climate.

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Appendix AAdaptation Plan Template

Complete the four steps in the following pages for your farm. This will help you to:1. Assess current climate trends in your region;

2. Evaluate farm vulnerabilities and oppor-

tunities based on these climate trends;

3. Select appropriate options to prepare

and adapt to these climate trends;

4. Compile all of the information in a

farm-specifi c climate adaptation plan.

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= INCREASE

= DECREASE

= NO CHANGE

Identify Weather TrendsDetermine the most likely climate and weather trends over the next one, fi ve or ten years.

Climate Spring Summer Fall Winter AnnualAverage Temperature

Nighttime Low Temperature

Precipitation Amount

Precipitation Intensity

Growing Degree Days Average:

Return Frequency Drought Average Years Between Events:

Return Frequency Large Rainfall Events

Average Years Between Events:

Other Notes

Source of Data

** When looking at any of this information, please remember that winter is considered to be December through February, spring is March through May, summer is June through August, and fall is September through November.

25

Identify Impacts and VulnerabilitiesList farm-specifi c impacts or vulnerabilities resulting from the anticipated climate changes on Worksheet 1. Include cost estimates of these impacts.

Impact CategoryImpact CategoryImpact

Projected WeatherImpact Summary/Consequences (Specifi c to season and phase of production)Impact Summary/Consequences (Specifi c to season and phase of production)Impact Summary/Consequences

Farm Inputs

Animal Production

Logistics

Exports

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Identify Management OptionsList some of the most signifi cant and likely impacts from Worksheet 2 in the fi rst column of this table. In the second column, list technologies or management practices that might reduce negative impacts. List the short term and “quick” fi xes fi rst and the longer range planning second.

Critical ImpactsTechnology/Management to Reduce Impact (Quick Fix)Technology/Management to Reduce Impact (Quick Fix)Technology/Management to Technology/Management to

Reduce Impact (Long Range)Technology/Management to Reduce Impact (Long Range)Technology/Management to

29

Implementing My Adaptation PlanWrite your adaptation plan and steps for implementation. (Use one form for each Critical Climate Change)

Today’s Date: // //

Summary of Critical Climate Change

Summary of Most Critical Farm Vulnerabilities

Summary of Most Likely Adaptation Strategies

List of Actions Steps

31

Appendix BExample Adaptation Plan

33

Adaptation Planning Example: 5,000 Head Beef Feedlot in SW Iowa






• Prediction based off of historic trends: Earlier spring warming period. • Past trends: (for this county) indicate about 5 days per year where the low temperature is above 72° degrees (concern for heat stress).• Current trend: Average annual temperatures are increasing. Recently there have been several

years with more than 8 days with nighttime low temperatures above 72° F.• Additional: Based on current trends in my region found on the climate addition, a heat

wave is expected 1 in 4 years in this area. • Source: Midwest Regional Climate Center (cli-MATE)


After reviewing all of the potential impacts, we determined that our biggest concern is death loss from these infrequent but extreme events. (Busby and Loy, 1996 AS R1348 Iowa Extension fact sheet) show heat extremes of as few as 2 days can result in a 4.8% herd death loss in unprotected herds in addition to other performance losses because of these temperatures. For this 5,000 head feedlot, the loss would be approximately 240 head. Using a quick estimate of ff1,000 lb. average weight on the lot and live-weight prices of $1.25 per pound, we can assume one event of this magnitude would be a loss of $300,000. With a return frequency of one in five years, this is about $60,000 per year in death loss alone. There may be other losses with less extreme heat events.


The farm currently has limited shade structures to protect animals. At times, the farm uses a water truck to sprinkle the cattle during heat events. This works well but is costly. Recent data shows a sprinkler system costs about $25 per head (www.feedlotenvironmental.com), but costs can be quite variable depending on elevations and the potential need for a new well. Assuming $25 per head, the total cost would be $125,000. Given the current frequency of heat events, the system will pay for itself quickly on death loss alone. Should heat event frequencies increase, the system will have a higher positive return. Other things to consider are more shade structures, better access to water and management procedures to put in place during heat events.


• Get better estimates on the exact cost of a sprinkler system in order to fine-tune the numbers for death loss and losses in efficiencies due to heat stress.

• Investigate options for more shade cloth (costs + benefits.)• Make a decision within two months on practice to install.• Evaluate in one year the effectiveness of the practices and revisit the climate impacts and trends.

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Appendix CReferences

37

Climate Trend Data Sources Recent Trends

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration) has a climate analysis tool

called “Climate at a Glance” (http://www.

ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us). This Web-

based tool evaluates maximum, minimum,

and average temperatures, precipitation

amounts, heating degree days, cooling

degree days and several drought indices.

The data can be selected geographically on

a local to global scale.

• Regional Climate Centers (http://www.wrcc.

dri.edu/rcc.html) provide a variety of maps

and tools to help understand and quantify

historic climate data and trends.

• cli-MATE (http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

CLIMATE/) is a tool that allows users the CLIMATE/) is a tool that allows users the CLIMATE/

ability to graph raw climate data, show

rankings, and view maps of a variety of

temperature and precipitation data.

• The American Association of State Climatol-

ogists (http://www.stateclimate.org/) provides http://www.stateclimate.org/) provides http://www.stateclimate.org/

a list of individual state climatology offi ces.

These local offi ces may offer additional

insights into local climate trends.

• U.S. Drought Monitor (http://droughtmonitor.

unl.edu/) provides reports on current drought unl.edu/) provides reports on current drought unl.edu/

status across the United States. This informa-

tion may be useful for short-term drought

management.

Current Weather Forecasts• National Weather Service Climate Prediction

Center (http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/) provides http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/) provides http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

6-10 day forecasts up to one year.

Future Projections• National Climate Assessment (http://nca2014.

globalchange.gov/downloads) report for 2014

provides regional climate projections and

impacts by economic sector (e.g. agriculture,

forest).

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC) (http://www.ipcc.ch/index.

htm) provides a variety of products regarding

the science of climate change but also has

reports on anticipated climate changes.

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ReferencesAmerican Farm Bureau Federation. 2015.

Fast Facts about Agriculture. http://www.

fb.org/index.php?fuseaction=newsroom.fastfacts

accessed 06/01/2015

Animal Agriculture in a Changing

Climate extension project: www.

animalagclimatechange.org

Busby, D., D. Loy. 1995. Heat Stress in Feedlot

Cattle: Producer Survey Results. Iowa State

University Leafl et R1348.

Extension Disaster Education Network:

http://eden.lsu.edu

Hannam, P. 2013. NZ drought sends global

milk prices soaring. The Land AU. March

2013.

Howitt, R., J. Azuara, D. Macewan, J. Lund,

D. Sumner. Economic Analysis of the 2014

Drought for California Agriculture. https://

watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/content/news/

Economic_Impact_of_the_2014_California_

Water_Drought.pdf

Howitt, R.E., J. Medellin-Azuara, D. MacEwan,

J.R. Lund, and D.A. Sumner. (2014).

Economic Analysis of the 2014 Drought

for California Agriculture. Center for

Watershed Sciences, University of Cali-

fornia, Davis, California. 20p. Available at

http://watershed.ucdavis.edu

National Climate Assessment: 2014 http://

nca2014.globalchange.gov/

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration) National Climate at a

Glance: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ cag/ time-

series/ us

St-Pierre, N.R., B. Cobanov, and G. Schnitkey.

2003. Economic losses from heat stress by

U.S. livestock industries. J. Dairy Sci. 86:(E.

Suppl.):E52-77.

Walthall, C.L., J. Hatfi eld, P. Backlund, L. Leng-

nick, E. Marshall, M. Walsh, S. Adkins, M.

Aillery, E.A. Ainsworth, C. Ammann, C.J.

Anderson, I. Bartomeus, L.H. Baumgard, F.

Booker, B. Bradley, D.M. Blumenthal, J. Bunce,

K. Burkey, S.M. Dabney, J.A. Delgado, J. Dukes,

A. Funk, K. Garrett, M. Glenn, D.A. Grantz,

D. Goodrich, S. Hu, R.C. Izaurralde, R.A.C.

Jones, S-H. Kim, A.D.B. Leaky, K. Lewers,

T.L. Mader, A. McClung, J. Morgan, D.J.

Muth, M. Nearing, D.M. Oosterhuis, D. Ort,

C. Parmesan, W.T. Pettigrew, W. Polley, R.

Rader, C. Rice, M. Rivington, E. Rosskopf,

W.A. Salas, L.E. Sollenberger, R. Srygley, C.

Stöckle, E.S. Takle, D. Timlin, J.W. White, R.

Winfree, L. Wright-Morton, L.H. Ziska. 2012.

Climate Change and Agriculture in the United

States: Effects and Adaptation. USDA Technical

Bulletin 1935. Washington, DC. 186 pages.

Zhorov, I. 2013. Why did South Dakota Snow

Storm Kill so Many Cattle. National Geo-

graphic. Oct 22, 2013 online access.

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Animal agriculture adaptation planning guide (climate change)

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