Adaptation Resources for Agriculture

Danielle Shannon & Chris Swanston, NIACS Mike Wilson & Mike Kucera, NRCS Jerry Hatfield & Howard Skinner, ARS David Hollinger, FS

Maria Janowiak, maria.janowiak@usda.gov

Topics for Webinar • Description of the Adaptation Resources for Agriculture

• Adaptation Workbook • Adaptation Strategies and Approaches • Adaptation Demonstration

• Request for Feedback • Process/Timeline

• Questions & Discussion Houghton, MI

Durham, NH

Ames, IA

Climate Hub Midwest

Climate Hub Northeast

Climate Hub Northern Forests

Joint project of USDA Climate Hubs: Midwest, Northeast, and Northern Forests

Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

Tool: Forest Adaptation Resources

adaptationworkbook.org

www.forestadaptation.org Click ‘Demonstration Projects’

Real-world Adaptation Projects

How to we adapt these resources for agriculture?

There isn’t a single answer

Each decision is unique and will vary based upon: • Place: Location & Site Conditions

• Purpose: Goals & Objectives

• People: Values, Culture, & Resources

Adaptation resources help producers/managers make decisions (without telling them what do do)

Adaptation Resources

1) Adaptation Workbook – a structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management and planning

2) Adaptation Strategies and Approaches – a “menu” of adaptation actions to choose from

3) Adaptation Demonstrations – real-world examples of how producers meet management goals and adapt to changing conditions

Adaptation Workbook Process

Adaptation Workbook Process

Adaptation Workbook Process

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Adaptation Workbook Process

Resource: Climate Change Assessments

Resource: Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

Provides a menu to help producers translate broad concepts to specific, implementable tactics

Shows your rationale for deciding on a specific action

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

CONCEPT

ACTION

STRATEGIES

APROACHES

TACTICS

ACTION

How the menu is created: 1. Review literature (>50 papers)

2. Collect adaptation actions of all types (>225 actions)

3. Organize by system, similarity, and scale

4. Create description 5. Review 6. Repeat!

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Literature review to identify

adaptation actions

Organize adaptation actions into

practical “menu”

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

CONCEPT

ACTION ACTION

At conceptual level, there are three broad options: • Resist change • Enhance resilience • Transition systems

toward future conditions

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

CONCEPT

ACTION

STRATEGIES

APROACHES

TACTICS

ACTION

• Strategies describe a broad response, applicable to many systems and landscapes

• Approaches are more specific, showing differences in goals, systems, and application

• Tactics are prescriptive, on-the-ground actions selected by the producer

Strategies– DRAFT

1. Sustain fundamental functions of soil and water.

2. Reduce the impact of non-climate stressors.

3. Reduce risks from warmer and drier conditions.

4. Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather.

5. Manage farms and fields as part of a larger landscape.

6. Alter management to accommodate expected future conditions.

7. Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions.

8. Alter infrastructure to accommodate new and expected conditions.

Approaches– DRAFT Strategy 1: Sustain fundamental functions of soil and water.

• Maintain and restore soil health.

• Protect water quality and quantity.

• Match practices to water demand and supply.

Strategy 3: Reduce risks from warmer and drier conditions.

• Adjust the timing or location of on-farm activities.

• Manage crops to cope with warmer and drier conditions.

• Manage livestock to cope with warmer and drier conditions.

Approaches– DRAFT Strategy 6: Alter management to accommodate expected future conditions. • Diversify varieties, crops, breeds, or products. • Establish or encourage new combinations of varieties or breeds. • Switch to commodities expected to be better suited to future

conditions.

Strategy 7: Alter agricultural systems or lands to new climate conditions. • Minimize potential impacts following disturbance. • Realign severely altered systems toward future conditions. • Alter lands in agricultural production.

Strategy/Approach Descriptions Strategy: Reduce the risk and long-term impacts of extreme weather. Climate change increases overall climate variability and increases the likelihood and severity of many extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to increase the potential for extreme weather events, such as extreme precipitation and wind, which will increasingly affect agricultural activity. Further, extreme cold, snow, and other winter conditions will continue to persist—or even increase, such as with mid-latitude snow in some areas—for many decades into the future. Even as trends continue to emerge, responses will need… Approach: Reduce peak flows, runoff, and water erosion. While precipitation projections vary, climate change is widely expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events across the entire U.S. Increases in runoff following severe precipitation events could also lead to an increase in soil erosion, although the risk from flooding, erosion, and other impacts on a specific site ultimately depend on local geological and topographic conditions of the location. Actions can be taken to reduce the severity of these events on soil and water resources when they do occur by reducing the flashiness of these extreme events and slowing the flow of water across the landscape

Example Adaptation Tactic Associated Conservation Practices Reduce over-land flows Contour Buffer Strips; Contour Farming Using swales to buffer against hydrologic variability Upgrade infrastructure (roads, culverts, etc) to accommodate more intense precipitation events

Terrace; Dam ; Pond

Maintain soil cover from vegetation or residues. Cover crop

Strategy describes broad response (plus description)

Approach gives greater detail (plus description)

Tactics provide examples of on-the-ground actions (connect to potential Conservation Practices)

Adaptation Example • Mike Kucera, NRCS Agronomist in Nebraska • 61 ac crops, 90 ac pasture • Crops; 25 years of continuous no-till, dryland farming • Pilot project for MW and NE Hubs

• 4 hours to do the workbook

1 2

3 4

5 Step 1: DEFINE area of interest, management goals and objectives, and time frames.

Cropland – 61 acres Continuous no-till corn-soybean-wheat (1/1/1)

Property Goals Cropland Objectives • Conserve soil moisture • Improve soil health

• Maintain or even increase crop yields • Maximize ground cover to reduce soil temperature,

evaporation, and maintain productivity during drought

• Increase soil organic matter to improve long-term soil productivity

• Maintain and improve soils structure for improve water infiltration (via organic matter and worms)

• Maintain lands in CRP programs for conservation

1

2

3 4

5 Step 2: ASSESS climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for the area of interest.

How might the area be uniquely affected by climatic change?

Cropland will likely be most affected by altered precipitation: • drought • extreme precipitation events

Property is less vulnerable to both drought and runoff than the local average because of the no-till system and work done to date to improve soil quality and infiltration and reduce evaporation Crops are each affected differently based on their biology—influenced by annual rainfall patterns

1

2

3 4

5 Step 3: EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts and vulnerabilities.

Challenges Opportunities • Increasing variability of rainfall:

probably too little or at the wrong time

• very extreme rainfall could cause crop damage

• Increases in pests and diseases • Warmer temps result in greater

respiration, which could impair yields reducing the ability to increase OM

• Multi-year impacts: low productivity one year could impact next year (residue on surface affects yield)

• And more…

• System could increase water recharge (as long as not too much precip)

• Utilize high carbon-nitrogen ratio cover crops following wheat harvest to increase the amount of residue cover during hot dry summer months

• Utilize a stripper header for and planting system that maximizes standing cover and residue retention

• Possibly utilize cool season cover crops due to warmer winters

1

2

3 4

5 Step 4: IDENTIFY and adaptation approaches and tactics for implementation.

Approach (from menu) Tactic (created by producer) • Maintain and restore soil health Use legume cover crops after wheat in years

that are projected to have wetter conditions to retain soil moisture

• Adjust the timing or location of activities to match altered seasonality.

• Select varieties and breeds expected to be better adapted to future conditions

• Establish or encourage new combinations of varieties or breeds

Plant sorghum instead of corn during the spring when soil moisture is low

Alternative rotations, such as winter canola and wheat (used in Oklahoma)

• Diversify varieties, crops, products, or practices

Plant a wider array of crops

Substitute crops (e.g., sorghum for corn) • Manage crops to cope with hotter and

drier conditions. Switch to irrigated systems

Monitoring Item Criteria for Evaluation Monitoring

Implementation Crop productivity (bushels per acre per year)

Similar or better yields over a 10-year period

Continue record-keeping

Runoff after heavy storms: degree of erosion after a 2-inch

Times erosion/runoff observed Erosion in a particular place that tends to be susceptible Canyon depth or gullying

Need to record!

1

2

3 4

5 Step 5: MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness of implemented actions.

Adaptation Resources - Timeline • Summer 2015

• Performed literature review & created first draft

• Fall 2015 • Collect feedback from researchers, professionals, & producers • Feedback period ends December 31

• Winter 2015 • Review and incorporate feedback • Test Adaptation Workbook on a wider variety of projects • Revise document

• Spring 2015 • Submit document for publication • Continued testing and use with agricultural producers (TBD)

Providing Feedback Emphasis on Adaptation Strategies and Approaches For each strategy: • How well does the strategy and supporting text clearly

describe the possible adaption action? • Can the strategy be implemented in the agricultural systems

in which you work? If not, why?

Providing Feedback Emphasis on Adaptation Strategies and Approaches For each approach: • How well does the approach and supporting text clearly

describe the possible adaption action? • Can the approach be implemented in the agricultural

systems in which you work? If not, why? • Do the example tactics provide a sense of how this approach

could possibly be implemented? • Do you have suggestions for other example tactics?

Providing Feedback • Documents/instructions at

www.climateframework.org/agriculture

• Feedback form online at https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ag-adaptation • Radio buttons required; comments optional • Answers/work will save (on same computer with cookies enabled) • Expect a few hours to complete • Alternatively, email comments to maria.janowiak@usda.gov

• Feedback due December 31, 2015