Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance

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Presentations by speakers at the CCAFS' "Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture" Side Event during the UNFCCC SB 40 climate negotiations in Bonn. Speakers are: Gabrielle Kissinger, David Kaluba, David Howlett and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya. http://ccafs.cgiar.org/blog/mainstreaming-agriculture-national-adaptation-plans-0#.U7jmRPldW8w

Transcript of Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance

  • Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans Gabrielle Kissinger, Lexeme Consulting Side-event: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture: Advances in research, policy and finance SBSTA 40 - Bonn Germany - 7 June 2014
  • Agricultural adaptation: Are countries ready? Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national
  • IPCC: Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields are more common than positive ones Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014
  • IPCC: Summary of projected changes in crop yields due to climate change Note: Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels Source: IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers, 31 March 2014 Climate adaptation and agriculture:
  • Growing demand and pressure on agriculture US $70 billion to $100 billion a year is needed between 2010 and 2050 to adapt to a 2oC warmer world (World Bank, 2011) US$83 - $90 billion annual agricultural investment gap in the agricultural sector of developing countries, to meet food security needs up to 2050 (FAO 2011, Global Harvest Initiative 2011)
  • How NAPs evolved Established in 2010 (Cancn) by the UNFCCC. Purpose: Facilitate effective medium- and long-term adaptation planning and implementation in developing countries, in particular LDCs (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1) Adaptation Committee est. under Cancun Adaptation Framework. Purpose: Implement enhanced action on adaptation and facilitation of NAPs by non-LDC developing country Parties. Contributes to (not duplicate work of) the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG) to support LDC national adaptation plan processes and the SBI on the work programme on loss and damage. LEG Technical Guidelines for NAPs: released 2012.
  • NAPAs and NAPs COP 17 in Durban defined NAP process objectives (FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1): (a) reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience, and (b) facilitate integration of climate change adaptation, in a coherent manner, into relevant new and existing policies, programmes and activities, in particular development planning processes and strategies, within all relevant sectors and at different levels, as appropriate. And recognised that adaptation planning will be continuous, progressive and iterative.
  • NAPAs and NAPs 2013. NAPAs and NAPS in Least Developed Countries. IIED LDC Paper Series. Climate adaptation and agriculture: Solutions to successful national adaptation plans SBSTA, June 2014
  • Countries reviewed
  • 10 country workshop 37 policy makers, 10 different countries two-day workshop on November 13-14, 2013 at COP in Warsaw, Poland
  • NAP Dashboard Source: Planning climate adaptation in agriculture. CCAFS Report No. 10
  • Areas of concern: Many countries lack consistent, comprehensive and coordinated approaches in their vulnerability and risk assessments (affects ranking) Most of the countries conducted impact assessmentsthe foundation of the planning processon a purely sectoral basis Cross- or multisectoral analyses to prioritize adaptation actions can be useful, many countries have difficulties performing such strategic studies Most did not assess the economic implications of climate risks, which compromises the design of adaptation strategies and measures: Kenya: Annual cost of climate change impacts USD $1 to 3 billion/yr. by 2030. Institutional frameworks and governance structures are lacking to effectively coordinate and implement adaptation activities, particularly cross-sectoral ones Many adaptation and food security programs currently being implemented are not well integrated into a broader national strategy, and are often driven by bilateral and/or multilateral funding sources.
  • The adaptation finance gap
  • Identification of barriers and conflicts basis for assessing future research and capacity needs: Workshop results: Barrier Frequency Lack of organization in access to finance 5 Lack of dedicated finance instruments for CC at national level 5 Insufficient consideration of climate issues in national policies and programmes 4 Unclear funding for implementation 3 Inadequate appreciation of investments in adaptation 3 Lack of long-series climate data 2 Lack of baseline data/information 2 High cost of international expertise, infrastructure and tools for climate research 2 Need for financial planning 2
  • Success in cross- or multisectoral planning: Nepal (NAPA): Thematic working groups Agriculture and Food Security, Forest and Biodiversity, Water Resources and Energy, Climate Induced Disasters, Public Health, Urban Settlements and Infrastructure. Stakeholder comprised, identified priority activities + combined project profiles. Ghana: Akropong Approach results in cross-sectoral project plan. Logical framework analysis + multi-criteria analysis to rank importance of activities. Tanzanias 2012 Guidelines for Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into National Sectoral Policies, Plans and Programmes of Tanzania, issued by the Vice Presidents Office.
  • Design of institutional structures should consider who can have greatest influence in adaptation and NAP policy environment: OECD experience: Success of adaptation plans and measures may be attributed more to their prominence in national-level priorities and commitment than where such plans sit in the organizational structure of government (Mullan et al. 2013) Ethiopia: coordination of climate change activities was moved from the National Meteorological Agency to the Office of the Prime Minister Kenya: the National Climate Change Framework Policy and a draft Bill being deliberated in Parliament envisions the National Climate Change Council (NCCC) being anchored in the Presidency, with the NCCC being chaired by the Deputy President. Necessary influence and leverage for NAPs:
  • Workshop: Most relevant actors and institutions to influence NAP policy environment
  • Recommendations Bring local levels into planning and prioritization, where much climate adaptation implementation occurs. Governance institutions need to be adaptive, in order to adjust response measures as new information on climate impacts develops over time. Developing countries and LDCs need to strengthen capacity to identify and rank climate risks and prioritize response activities. Identify sources of NAP implementation finance during the planning phase. Implementation funding should be separate from NAP planning. Devote some national budgetary allocations towards implementation (stronger commitment to outcomes and more effective for mainstreaming) Increased capacity for integrated approaches to adaptation planning Key for relationships and trade-offs between sectors + climate adaptation and mitigation synergies Countries should widen stakeholder engagement in assessment, design, implementation and monitoring of adaptation plans, particularly the private
  • Thank you! Gabrielle Kissinger Principal, Lexeme Consulting gabrielle@lexemeconsulting.com
  • Planning Climate Adaptation in Agriculture UNFCCC SB 40 in Bonn, Germany By David C. Kaluba National Coordinator-Interim Secretariat Ministry of Finance Zambia 2014 REPUBLICREPUBLIC OF ZAMBIAOF ZAMBIA
  • What are Development Priorities Strong Economic Growth GNI per capita: US$1,280/year GDP Growth: 6.4% Population 13 million 61% rural Land: 750,000 km2 Two large river basins: Zambezi and Congo The name is derived from river Zambezi But Growth is Uneven Poverty level in rural areas: 77% (59% at national level) UN HDI: 150 out of 169
  • Example 2. Identify Climate Change Risks on Development Over past 30 years, floods and droughts have cost Zambia US$13.8 billion equivalent to 0.4 % of annual GDP growth In the absence of adaptation, rainfall variability could keep an additional 300,000 more Zambians below the poverty line Climate variability could cost Zambia US$4.3 billion in lost GDP over the next decade, reducing annual growth by 0.9%
  • Impact on the Most Vulnerable Women-headed Households, the Elderly, Incapacitated, and those taking care of AIDS- orphans are most vulnerable. Single or divorced male-headed HHs are also highly vulnerable (due to malnutrition) When hit with floods or droughts, vulnerable HHs cope by reducing food or essential expenditures (health, education). They also increase their level of indebtness and rely further on casual labor however, this is mostly food-for- works which is similarly impacted by the weather. Many traditional