© 2016 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

2017 EMEA PREDICTIONSRichard Cope | Senior Trends Consultantrcope@mintel.com@Richard_Mintel

© 2016 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

2

AGENDA

RIGHT HERE,RIGHT NOW

1SEAMLESSSPENDING

2TALKING SHOP

3

THE SWEET HEREAFTER

4CULTURAL SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

5ASCENDING AFRICA

6AIRPOCALYPSE NOW

7

3

RIGHT HERE,RIGHT NOW

4

WHAT IS IT?

55

Aided in part by the rise in popularity of geo-location technology, we expect brands to increasingly help consumers decide what to buy, watch, do or eat, based upon pending timeframes from the next 30 minutes to the next 48 hours.

WHAT IS IT?

6

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

7

Pokémon Go’s popularity suggests how people can interact with their immediate surroundings and how they search for things to do and buy in any given moment.

GAMIFIED INSPIRATION

7

8

Brands can alert users to sales or special offers curated just for them or leisure events happening in the here and now. This provides businesses with a positive, serendipitous way to offer deals, something that will appeal as economies across the Euro region remain shaky.

TIME FOR SAVINGS AND SERENDIPITY

8

9

DATA

10

OPENNESS TO SHARING LOCATION

29%Of UK Millennials would be happy to share their real time location with brands they like in exchange in order to receive nearby offers.

SOURCE: MINTEL DIGITAL ADVERTISING UK MARCH 2016

11

27%UK

SOURCE: MINTEL LUXURY GOODS RETAILING INTERNATIONAL AUGUST 2015

LUXURY GOODS CONSUMERS INTERESTED IN SMARTPHONE MARKETING RELEVANT TO THEM AND THEIR LOCATION AT THE TIME:

21%Spain

20%Italy

13%Germany

12%France

12SOURCE: MINTEL LIFESTYLES OF MILLENNIALS UK OCTOBER 2015

MAGIC MOMENTS

21%Of UK Millennials say they prefer to live in the moment and not think about the future.

13SOURCE: MINTEL VISITOR ATTRACTIONS UK DECEMBER 2015, TECHNOLOGY AND IRISH TOURISM – IRELAND, JULY 2015

OFF-PEAK OFFERS

42%Of UK of consumers would be interested in visiting an historical or cultural attraction off-peak (e.g. weekdays, early mornings) if they got a discount.

16%Of RoI consumers not that deal sites such as Groupon are their first port of call when booking a holiday or short trip.

14

SOURCE: MINTEL THE RESTAURANT DECISION-MAKING PROCESS US JULY 2015, FOODSERVICE – IRELAND, MAY 2014

OFF-PEAK OFFERS

39%Of US diners would be interested in trying a new restaurant if it lowered its prices during off-peak hours (eg 2-4pm).

32%Of RoI consumers select a foodservice outlet for meals because of a price promotion, money-off voucher or discount.

1515

France, August 2016: app Yatu allows users who have opted-in to chat with retailers, view stock levels, order products and receive offers up to 5km away in their local area.

BETTER BEACONS

16

53%Stadiums successfully deploying beacons to sell empty

seats, as well as sell more merchandise.

of NBA of NFL75%

AMERICAN SPORTS SUCCESS

SOURCE: EU

17 SOURCE: PROXBOOK

8 mnBeacons in operation globally as of 2016.

BETTER BEACONS

18 SOURCE: ZAPPER

1,000UK bars, pubs and restaurants have Zapper’s Z-Beacon Bluetooth technology to alert users about events, personalised offers and rewards.

BETTER BEACONS

19 SOURCE: RoE2

Feb 2016 saw St. Patrick’s Cathedral become one of the first Irish tourism destinations to begin using beacon technology.

RoE2 have installed beacons at points of interest within the Cathedral. Once downloaded, the Beacon enabled App identifies the location of visitors and sends them information on points of interest as they approach each exhibit.

ST. PATRICK’S CATHEDRAL USING BEACONS

20

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

2121

The Netherlands: Albert Heijn has developed its own Pokémon GO map, which allows Albert Heijn customers to mark down when and where they find Pokémon in Albert Heijn stores –attracting other users to Albert Heijn stores.

POKÉMAPPIE

22

NO TIME TO WASTE

22

The EU’s FoodLoop app notifies users when items which are nearing their best before date have been reduced in price

23

MEET WITH WEHEY!

23

Spain: Wehey is an app that enables users to converse with and meet people who are physically close to them in the real world. Users can also publish posts on the network that are geo-tagged to specific locations, which must be visited to see the message.

10% of RoI consumers are interested in an app hat helps them to socialise during a hotel stay (eg connects you with other guests, gives details of

social events nearby)

2424

TIDE FOR BEERSpain: Mustache Cerveza’scampaign saw the changing tide levels set the price of the beer. When the tide was high, the price went down while at low tide the beer became more expensive.

25

ROOM TEMPERATUREMontreal: The Ritz-Carlton offered a seasonal room package that saved guests more money as the temperature drops.

25

26

1. Impulsive, playful consumers are ready to start buying and doing things on the hoof, enjoying the exploration factor.

2. In an increasingly fluid, 24-hour society, “off-peak” is becoming more marketable.

3. Impulsive location-based purchases and experiences appeal to savvy shoppers and luxury consumers alike.

4. Flexible, playful price campaigns determined by tides or temperature sidestep the tawdriness of standard discounting campaigns.

5. These campaigns can be positioned as smart, social, fun and green.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

27

SEAMLESS SPENDING

28

WHAT IS IT?

29

WHAT IS IT?Thanks to the simplicity and convenience they offer, people are set to embrace new payment methods such as contactless cards, smartphones and wearables in record numbers.

30

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

31

Autumn 2016: Apple Pay’s one-click payment services made available on any device using the Safari browser.

31

FINANCIAL CONNECTIVITY GROWS

3232

FINANCIAL CONNECTIVITY GROWS

Autumn 2016: Vodafone Pay now allows users to make contactless payments from their Paypal account even when the phone is switched off or out of battery

33

Autumn 2016: Tesco rolls out its Payqwiq app across the UK.

FINANCIAL CONNECTIVITY GROWS

3434

FINANCIAL CONNECTIVITY GROWS

Fitbit will launch a wearable device with NFC payment capabilities in 2017.

35

DATA

36 SOURCE: VISA EUROPE, PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

DIGITAL PAYMENTS GROWTH

3 billionContactless payments were recorded by Visa between 1 May 2015 and 30 April 2016.

42% of RoI consumers

note they are using

contactless payments

more in 2016 compared to

2015

37 SOURCE: VISA EUROPE

In 2015 Visa Europe claimed that 2 million contactless transactions are carried out in Ireland each month.

One contactless transaction every second.

CONTACTLESS CRAZY

38 SOURCE: UK CARD ASSOCIATION; MINTEL CREDIT CARDS UK AUGUST 2016

DIGITAL PAYMENTS GROWTH

+12%Volume of UK credit card purchase transactions in 2015, to 3,127 million

+42%Volume of UK of debit card transactions 2010-15.

39 SOURCE: MASTERCARD39

PERCENTAGE OF MASTERCARD IN-STORE TRANSACTIONS MADE VIA CONTACTLESS CARD:

41%Poland

61%Czech Republic

27%Hungary

27%Slovakia

40SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER PAYMENT PREFERENCES UK OCTOBER 2015, PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

APPETITE FOR DIGITAL PAYMENTS

39%Of UK consumers believe that a cashless society is inevitable in the future.

40

51%Of RoI consumers believe that a cashless society is inevitable in the future.

41SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER ATTITUES TO MOBILE PAYMENTS UK AUGUST 2016, PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

APPETITE FOR DIGITAL PAYMENTS

29%Of UK consumers say that it would be/is more convenient to pay for things using a smartphone than other payment methods.

41

42 SOURCE: MINTEL ELECTRICAL RETAILING SPAIN FEBRUARY 2015

APPETITE FOR DIGITAL PAYMENTS

50%Of Spanish consumers like the idea of a mobile payment app that would allow them to pay for electrical or electronic products instore without having to queue.

43

SOURCE: MINTEL DIGITAL PAYMENT PREFERENCES UK OCTOBER 2015; PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

DIGITAL PAYMENTS: THE CHALLENGE

50%Of UK consumers believe that cash is the only method of payment that is 100% secure.

41%Of RoI consumers feel similarly.

44 SOURCE: MASTERCARD

DIGITAL PAYMENTS: THE CHALLENGE

13%Of UK consumers have no reservations at all about using their smart device (i.e. smartphone) as a payment method.

45

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

46 SOURCE: IRISH CENTRAL BANK

In May 2016 the Central Bank announced as part of it’s campaign to make Ireland a cashless society it shall install cashless payment systems for use by employees in restaurants and shops located within its new headquarters on North Wall Quay in Dublin’s docklands.

Central Bank goes Cashless

47

UK: Waitrose opened its first cashless store in Osterley in August 2016.

CASHLESS RETAILING

47

4848

CASHLESS RETAILING

Austria: Cigarette vending machines now accept mobile payments.

4949

UK: The Pavlok wristband notifies users’ phones when they near their spending limit and sends them a 255-volt shock if they exceed it.

TRACKING SPENDING

Of RoI consumers would like to be able to set daily limits on how much they can spend with contactless payments (eg €100) limit per day)

41%

50

Germany: OKIKO is an online bank account that makes it easy for parents to track children’s spending

TRACKING SPENDING

50

5151

Malaysia: M.V.P is an online-based platform that allows users to purchase their drinks online in advance before a night out.

PLANNED SPENDING

5252

Ghana Bank launched a new biometric fingerprint terminal service specially created for rural consumers who are unbanked or underbanked.

USE YOUR BODY

61% of RoI consumers believe biometric measures (eg fingerprints/ iris scan)

would help to improve online payment security

SOURCE: PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

5353

Alibaba has announced plans to develop virtual reality payment technology that allows users to pay with a nod of their heads.

USE YOUR BODY

26% of RoI consumers would be interested in alternative means of

verifying their identity when buying stuff online (eg

taking a selfie instead of a password)

SOURCE: PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

54

PayPal introduced a contactless payment wristband at the Amsterdam Open Air festival.

WEARABLE FINANCE

54

12% of RoI consumers would be keen to try Contactless wristband (pre-loaded with a set amount of credit) to pay for things

at a concert or festival

SOURCE: EVENTS TOURISM - IRELAND - AUGUST 2016

5555

UK: Barclaycard and Lyle & Scott created a jacket with a built-in contactless payment chip in the cuff of its right sleeve.

WEARABLE FINANCE

5656

UK: Barclaycard launched its second collaboration with Topshop comprising bracelets, smartphone cases and key chains which incorporated Barclaycard’s bPaycontactless payment technology.

WEARABLE FINANCE

5757

UK: British student Lucie Davis created a set of false nails that double as a TfL Oyster card.

WEARABLE FINANCE

58

1. Payment systems will need to be as reliable, convenient and efficient as possible

2. With the payment process streamlined, brands can focus on enhancing the in-store experience for customers

3. This technology will give businesses greater freedom with where they set up shop

4. However, there is a risk that as cash usage declines people will be more reckless with their spending

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

59

TALKINGSHOP

60

WHAT IS IT?

61

Brands are utilising platforms like Snapchat, Whatsapp and Facebook Messenger to instantly connect with consumers and offer superior levels of customer service.

WHAT IS IT?

62

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

63

GROWING USAGE

1 bnMonthly users of WhatsApp

1 bnMonthly users of Facebook Messenger

SOURCE: EU

6464

April 2016: WhatsApp introduces end-to-end encryption

October 2016: Facebook Messenger rolls out end-to-end encryption with its “secret conversations” feature

GREATER SAFETY

SOURCE: SOCIAL NETWORKING - IRELAND - MAY 2015

6565

Facebook’s Messenger Platform gives any third party the opportunity to develop their own chatbots for Messenger

Snapchat Partners connects brands with tech developers to optimise and analyse advertising content for the platform

GREATER CONTROL

SOURCE: SOCIAL NETWORKING - IRELAND - MAY 2016

66

DATA

67 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS; 2016 Q167

SMARTPHONE OWNERSHIP:

91%Spain

87%Italy

80%Germany

77%France

88%Ireland

68 SOURCE: MINTEL SOCIAL MEDIA IN TOURISM MARCH 2016, SOCIAL NETWORKING - IRELAND - MAY 2016

A SOCIAL EUROPE

47%Of Europeans use social media networks each week.

93%Of RoI internet users log-on to a social network at least once per week.

69 SOURCE: ONLINE RETAILING - ITALY JULY 2016

INTEREST IS GROWING

59%Of Italian consumers would like to be able to contact customer service through an instant messenger.

70 SOURCE: MINTEL SOCIAL MEDIA NETWORKS UK MAY 2016

INTEREST IS GROWING

27%Of UK social/media network users would find it useful to contact brands via messaging apps such as WhatsApp.

70

71 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS

20% Of RoI consumers use Snapchat at least once per week in 2016

INTEREST IS GROWING

72 SOURCE: MINTEL SOCIAL NETWORKING IRELAND MAY 2016

CONVENIENT AND EFFECTIVE

43%Of Irish Consumers say that raising issues with a company via social media is more effective than contacting them directly.

73 SOURCE: PAYMENT METHODS: ONLINE VS. OFFLINE - IRELAND - JULY 2016

Payment Challenge

11%Of RoI consumers noted that they would be comfortable using a social media or messaging app (eg Facebook Messenger, Whatsapp) to send payments to friends and family.

However 61% disagreed and 28% remained unsure.

74

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

75

WHATSAPP YOUR SERVICE

The Netherlands: Insurance company Ditzo promises to answer consumer questions and queries via WhatsApp within two hours.

76

The Netherlands: Ace Jewelers has opened up a WhatsApp account which allows customers to quickly and easily get in touch with the online retailer.

WHATSAPP YOUR SERVICE

77

Netherlands: KLM uses Facebook Messenger as a service channel

MOVING ONTO MESSENGER

77

78

Netherlands: Energy supplier Oxxio has released a robot chatbotthat people can ask questions to.

CONVENIENT CHATBOTS

79

CONVENIENT CHATBOTS

UK: Domino’s has launched a chatbot called Dom that allows customers to order pizza directly from Facebook Messenger.

80

CONVENIENT CHATBOTS

Denmark: Bank Lunar Way has developed a Facebook chatbot that allows customers to check their balance via chat or even transfer funds between accounts.

81

BEYOND CUSTOMER SERVICE

Argentina: UNICEFhas been training teachers to host classes online and respond to student questions via WhatsApp so that those in remote areas of Northern Argentina can access education.

82

South Africa: SMS service MomConnect has launched a new Facebook Messenger chatbot, enabling users to chat with trained medical staff free of charge.

BEYOND CUSTOMER SERVICE

83

China: Panda Blood is a mobile platform on WeChat that helps patients find matching blood donors.

BEYOND CUSTOMER SERVICE

84

1. These platforms enable users to centralise information

2. They create user-generated content brands can harness

3. There’s growth potential in sectors where confusion or embarrassment are rife

4. A consistent tone of voice will be essential

5. Expectations around response times will increase

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

85

THE SWEET HEREAFTER

86

WHAT IS IT?

87

The UK is the latest country to declare a sugar tax, signifying a growing challenge for European brands: namely how to deliver the future of sweetness going forward.

WHAT IS IT?

87

88

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

89

2018: UK INTRODUCES A TAX ON SOFT DRINKS

>5g:100mlat a likely 18p per litre.

>8g:100mlat a likely 24p per litre.

90

RoI SUGAR TAX ON THE WAY IN 2018

October 2016 saw Minister for Finance Michael Noonan announce plans to introduce a tax on sugary drinks.

The tax is being delayed until after Brexit to align the tax with that of the UK/NI to prevent cross-border purchasing of sugary drinks.

91

Pure fruit juices and milk-based drinks will be excluded, as will smaller producers.

FRUIT AND DAIRY

91

92

AIMS OF THE TAX

£5 bnCost of obesity to UK’s National Health Service.

£520 mnA year in revenue will go towards encouraging sports participation in primary schools.

93

Beyond the UK, more and more governments are concerned about obesity’s financial hit on public health services and whilst they will be taking an interest in the levy’s effectiveness in health, more brands across Europe will consider this as a portent for a need to reformulate not just carbonated soft drinks, but other high sugar products in other sectors.

WHAT NEXT?

94

DATA

95

SUGAR KIDS

5,500Sugar cubes consumed per year by an average UK 4-10 year old.

22 kgSame weight as a five year old.

SOURCE: PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND (PHE)

96

A BIGGER EUROPE

30-70%Of Europeans by country are overweight.

10-30%The figures for obesity.

96 SOURCE: EU, WHO

97

A BIGGER IRELAND

97 SOURCE: EU, WHO, HEALTHY EATING – IRELAND, DECEMBER 2016

74%Of RoI men and 56% of women are

estimated to be obese or

overweight by the WHO.

BUT only

32%Of RoI

consumers identify

themselves as being

overweight, while 5% identify

themselves as being obese

98SOURCE: NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLI CHEALTH MEXICO

WILL IT WORK?

-12%Decline in sales of fizzy drinks in Mexico in the year after its introduction

10%Tax on sugar sweetened drinks.

99 SOURCE: SOFT DRINKS – IRELAND, NOVEMBER 2016

WILL IT WORK?

57%Of RoI drinkers say that they would either cut back on or stop drinking sugary carbonated soft drinks if the price were to increase by 30c per litre.

15%Expect to stop drinking CSDs altogether.

100 SOURCE: IRISH BEVERAGE COUNCIL

WILL IT WORK?

€60The estimated increased cost to annual grocery bills that the Irish Beverage Council estimate the sugar tax will add.

101SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS; CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS SUGARS AND SWEETENERS UK JANUARY 2015101

CONSUMERS ACTIVELY REDUCING CONSUMPTION OF, OR AVOIDING SUGARY FOODS:

63%Poland

63%Spain

60%Italy

54%France and Germany

53% of RoI consumers note that they actively

limit the amount of sugar they use (eg in

baking, adding to tea/coffee)

102 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS102

“ARTIFICIAL SWEETENERS (EG ASPARTAME, SACCHARIN) DON'T TASTE AS GOOD AS SUGAR”:

30%Poland

22%Italy

29%Germany

27%Spain

25%France

103 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS, INNOVATIONS IN SOFT DRINKS - IRELAND - NOVEMBER 2015103

DEMAND FOR MORE PRODUCTS WITH NATURAL, LOW-CALORIE SWEETENERS (EG STEVIA):

31%Spain

17%France

26%Poland

25%Germany

23%Italy

34% of RoI consumers are interested in trying carbonated drinks that use natural sweeteners in 2015.

104SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARDS SUGAR AND SWEETENERS UK JANUARY 2015

A “NATURAL” HONEYMOON

56%Of UK consumers agree that products high in natural sugar (e.g. from fruit) are still healthy.

51%Agree that products made from honey are better for you than those made with sugar.

105 SOURCE: SOFT DRINKS – IRELAND, NOVEMBER 2016

SUGAR ANALYSIS

51%Of RoI consumers feel there is too much conflicting information on what constitutes a healthy diet.

76%Of RoI consumers agree that food and drink companies should be doing more to reduce the amount of sugar in their products.

106

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

107 SOURCE: BRITISH SOFT DRINKS ASSOCIATION

Mexico: “would you give them 12 spoonfuls of sugar? Then why would you give them a soda?” ran the sugartaxcampaign by the Nutritional Health Alliance.

ACTIVISTS PRESS HARDER

108 SOURCE: BRITISH SOFT DRINKS ASSOCIATION

Rather than contest the legislation, they will downsize can and bottle sizes and reformulate with non-sugar alternatives.

THE CDC REACTION

45%Of CSDs consumed in the UK are already low/no calorie.

109

As a healthier alternative, we might see growing usage of sweeter-tasting Agave syrup, but this might be limited and short-lived due to the fact that is itself two-thirds sugar.

SUGAR ALTERNATIVES

109

110110

With smaller producers exempt, this may provide opportunities for independent craft soft drinks producers to flourish – as Fritz Cola and Ali Cola have done in Hamburg, Germany and beyond – albeit in a market without a soft drinks sugar tax.

CRAFT ALTERNATIVES

111111

It’s also going to prove difficult for brands to play the “natural” card when pushing alternatives, because plant-based sweetening ingredients like Stevia leaves have to be processed.

A SIMPLE “NATURAL” ANSWER: WATER

112112

Finland extended taxes to confectionery and chocolate, but it will scrapped after the EU found it favoured domestic producers.

The potential challenge for manufacturers of cakes, biscuits, sweets and ice cream would be far greater, because sugar is fundamental not just to taste but also to providing texture and bulk.

OTHER SECTORS BEWARE

29% of RoI consumers note concerns over sugar content has seen them reduce their purchasing of chocolate between 2015-16.

28% of RoI consumers expressed interest in trying prepared meals formulated to contain less sugar.

113113

UK: the National Health Service (NHS) Sugar Smart barcode scanning app shows users how many cubes of sugar are in a product.

ANALYSIS

114114

November 2016: South Korea is to restrict advertisements for 2,000 highly caffeinated food and beverages.

NEXT?

115115

October 2016: on World Obesity Day the World Health Organization calls for further 20% taxes on sodas, sport drinks and 100% fruit juices.

NEXT?

116

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?1. Short-term: good news for bottled water, fruit

and milk-based drinks and “naturals” like honey and agave.

2. Whatever the rights and wrongs, it will get people thinking – and learning – about their sugar intake.

3. Brands are prepared, but Mintel’s data shows people are ready to cut down.

4. Medium-term: The WHO is pushing other countries to follow this lead and the cost of obesity to governments will force them to act.

5. Longer-term: concerns, cut backs and legislation may extend to other formats

117

CULTURAL SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY

118

WHAT IS IT?

119

WHAT IS IT?Public funding in Europe is in crisis, and yet the region contains the highest number of UNESCO World Heritage sites. In light of this, brands are stepping in to fund restoration and repair work.

120

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

121

FUNDING CONCERNS

€347 bn –€325 bnDrop in EU Cohesion Policy funding – which assists cultural heritage management –between (2007 – 2013) and (2014 – 2020).

SOURCE: EU

122

MIGRANTS - TENSIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES

In 2015, net migration to Europe saw a population growth of 1.9 million persons.

SOURCE: EUROSTAT

123

DATA

124 SOURCE: UNESCO124

Spain45

42France

41Germany

51Italy

UNESCO WORLD HERITAGE SITES IN EUROPE:

125 SOURCE: EUROSTAT125

PERCENTAGE WHO ARE UNSATISFIED WITH STATE OF STREETS AND BUILDINGS

34%Rome

28%Athens

27%Berlin

27%Madrid

28%Dublin

126 SOURCE: EUROSTAT126

PERCENTAGE WHO ARE UNSATISFIED WITH STATE OF STREETS AND BUILDINGS

20%Paris

17%Ankara

20%Warsaw

16%London

127 SOURCE: MINTEL SPONSORSHIP IRELAND DECEMBER 2015;

GET INVOLVED

72%Of Irish consumers say that sponsorships are only worthwhile if they give something back to the sport or community.

128 SOURCE: MINTEL SPONSORSHIP IRELAND DECEMBER 2015

GET INVOLVED

Of Irish consumers say that they would be more likely to use brands that sponsor local charities, teams or events.

48%

129 SOURCE: MINTEL THE ETHICAL CONSUMER UK JULY 2015

SCEPTICISM RIFE

62%Of UK consumers agree that companies only act ethically when it benefits them.

130 SOURCE: MINTEL THE ETHICAL FOOD CONSUMER UK JUNE 2015

TRANSPARENCY REMAINS KEY

52%Of UK consumers say that they would only pay more for ethical products if they knew where the extra money went.

131

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

132

Italy: Rome launched a campaign to encourage people and brands to adopt and sponsor restoration works on the city’s historical statues, fountains, palazzos and archaeological sites.

ADOPT A MONUMENT

132

133

Italy: Milan’s Adopt a Spire campaign has seen support from big name Italian fashion brands including Roberto Cavalli, Gucci, Armani, Prada and Etro.

ADOPT A MONUMENT

134

Italy: Luxury jewellery brand Bulgarifunded restoration works on Rome’s Spanish Steps.

DIRECTLY FUNDING

135

Italy: Underwear brand Calzedonialaunched and funded a competition to find new ways to cover the Roman amphitheatre at Verona.

DO IT TOGETHER

136

Global: Converse's campaign Fix to Ride renovated and revived derelict skate parks.

DIRECTLY FUNDING

136

137

UK: Savse, a smoothie brand, teamed up with running community GoodGym to give a makeover to London’s rundown public spaces.

DO IT TOGETHER

138

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?1. Brands will take centre stage as powerhouses of

change

2. These projects offer an opportunity to engage with local residents and celebrate growing levels of diversity

3. Brands will need pick projects that closely align with their identity

4. Transparency and honesty will be key to set sceptical minds at ease

139

ASCENDINGAFRICA

140

WHAT IS IT?

141

WHAT IS IT?Africa’s rising GDP and improving infrastructure are making it an increasingly credible and powerful trading partner and Europe will start to buy in to and reach out to the benefits of Africa’s growing middle class and rapidly improving connectivity.

142

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN 2017?

143

MODERATE SUB-SAHARAN GROWTH

+2.9%GDP growth in 2017, thanks to consumer consumption, investment, and government spending.

+3.6%GDP growth in 2018.

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

144

IMPROVING INFRASTRUCTURE2017: completion of the Mombassa-Nairobi section of the East African Standard Gauge Railway (SGR).

144

145

x

A NEW UNIONThe African Union (AU) has agreed on an all-Africa passport to remove visa restrictions. Diplomats will start using them in 2018.

The AU is also formulating plans for a single African market.

146

BETTER BANKING2028: African Union nations are working towards the establishment of an African Central Bank and ultimately perhaps a single currency.

146

147

202050%Of Africans will have access to smartphones with mobile broadband.

SOURCE: GSMA

148SOURCE: MILLI MILLU

FACEBOOK’S FREE BASICS April 2016: Facebook announces it is launching Amos-6 satellites to beam broadband internet to people across Sub-Saharan Africa.

148

149

DATA

150150

THE YOUNGEST CONTINENT 65%Of the African population is under 35.

SOURCE: UNITED NATIONS150

151

AFRICA’S NEW “FOREIGN AID”

$51.8 billionEstimated remittance flow to Sub-Saharan Africa from Africans living abroad in 2010.

$43 billionThe figure for Official Development Assistance (ODA).

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

152

INCREASED PRODUCTION

+3.3%Annual increase in African cereal output (2000-13) –faster than any other region.

SOURCE: UN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ASSOCIATION

153

LIFE LINE

10 millionM-Shwari accounts in Africa.

50,000Loans are made every day.

SOURCE: COMPANY DATA

154

SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST

AFRICA’S MIDDLE CLASS

14%Of African households have annual incomes of $5,500 or more – a South African classification for “middle class”.

155

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

156

SAMSUNG BUILT FOR AFRICASamsung has created a line of appliances designed for high temperatures and humidity in areas where water and energy are limited, including Duracool Refrigerators and Ecobubble SCOUT washing machines.

157

DEMYSTIFYING AFRICAN BEAUTY06 September 2016 - South Africa: L’Oréal has launched a new Research and Innovation Centre aimed at better understanding the unique properties of different African hair and skin.

SUPPORTED TRENDS: SERVING THE UNDERSERVED

158

CONSUMERS: COFFEE

1 kg per capitaCoffee consumption in Africa.

15-20%Annual growth in coffee consumption in Kenya.

SOURCE: GHANAWEB; GAIN

159

FAST-CASUAL AFRICA

Starbucks Corporate has secured a licensing deal with Taste Holdings Limited to open up Starbucks cafés in South Africa and other fast-growing African economies.

SUPPORTED TRENDS: EXTEND MY BRAND

160

CONSUMERS: GUINNESS

31.4%Africa’s share of global Guinness sales.

$538 billionAnnual sales of Guinness in Nigeria.

SOURCE: DIAGEO

161

162 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS 2016

“I PREFER TO TRY MANY DIFFERENT TYPES OF BEER BRANDS”:

64%Poland

60%Italy

52%France

50%Spain

163

Teff is a high protein, gluten-free grass native to Ethiopia and Eritrea. It is used to make Ethiopian Tella beer and Iniera flatbread.

PRODUCTS: TEFF

163

164SOURCE: THE ECONOMIST

EXPORTS: FLOWERS

30%Increase in exports to 137,000 tonnes (1998-2014).

Of Europe’s cut flowers come from Kenya.

x12

165

INCREASED INGREDIENTS

+41%Increase in food and drink product launches citing African ingredients (2001-15).

SOURCE: MINTEL GNPD

3% of RoI consumers have bought African style prepared meals in the three months to August 2016.

166

Consumers are interested in buying sweet biscuits made with non-wheat grains (e.g. spelt, amaranth).

39%of Germans

51%of Italian

PROVENANCE POTENTIAL

37%of Spanish

SOURCE: MINTEL

167 SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS 2016167

65%France and Germany

67%Spain and Poland

“I LIKE TO TRY NEW TYPES OF CEREAL/SNACK/ENERGY BARS”

63%Italy

168

PROVE THE PROVENANCE

48% Of UK consumers would only pay more for ethical products if they knew where the extra money went.

Of UK 25-34s say companies ethics and behaviour have an impact on their purchasing decisions.

52%

SOURCE: MINTEL THE ETHICAL CONSUMER UK JULY 2015 168

169

US: Kashi (Kelloggs) has launched TeffThins. GNPD: 4347153

PRODUCTS: TEFF

169

170

PRODUCTS: BAOBABUK: Aduna’s Baobab powder can be added to smoothies and breakfasts and is directly and responsibly sourced from and processed by small suppliers via its local partner ORGIIS.

170

171

PRODUCTS: INGREDIENTS

Kalk Bay Foods’s Source Africa range is a collection of sauces, condiments, jams, tea and cook’s salt.

172

GOURMET AFRICAN CHOCOLATETanzania: Chocolate Mamas luxury artisan 100% African chocolate uses local sugar and recycled maize packaging.

SOURCE: CHOCOLATE MAMAS 172

173

PRODUCTS: ROOIBOSRooibos is a bush used to make a caffeine-free red tea, that is claimed to cure headaches, insomnia, asthma, eczema and even premature ageing.

173

174

PRODUCTS: SOAP

South Africa: Khulu Soap uses traditional African herbs and distributes worldwide.

175

FASHION FACTORIESThe ASOS Africa collection is produced in Kenya, supporting the work of the SOKO clothing manufacturing workshop. For every item sold, ASOS donates $9 to the scheme.

175

176

FASHION HOUSE

South Africa: Maxhosa By Laduma is a knitwear collection inspired by the aesthetics of amakrwala – young Xhosa who are prescribed by tradition to dress in dignified formal clothing for six months after their manhood initiation. The lines are for sale in Japan and the UK.

177

RUN LIKE A KENYAN

July 2016: Enda is a crowdfunded social enterprise working with reebok designer Birdhaus that has created the world’s first “Kenyan running shoe”, for the us market, using local materials.

178

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?1. Despite challenges, Africa’s economy, connectivity and

self-sufficiency is growing.

2. The emerging Middle Class is open to European products and global brands, but these will work best when given some African regional authenticity and roots.

3. Authenticity and ethics appeal to European consumers, creating export potential for African products and ingredients.

4. African specialities and expertise in fashion, fitness, health and beauty can yield new markets.

5. Greater trade is both a commercial opportunity and moral duty.

179

AIRPOCALYPSE NOW

180

WHAT IS IT?

181

WHAT IS IT?Air pollution is harming us right now and consumers will start investing more in pollution protection products, whilst brands endeavour to be part of the solution, not the problem.

182

WHAT’S HAPPENINGIN 2017?

183

TAKING STOCK POST PARIS

Ahead of the first statistical stock take in 2018, European governments will start implementing some of the actions called for by the Paris climate summit.

184184

URBAN GREENING

Paris has banned cars registered before January 1997 from the city on weekdays and is working towards a 100% ban on diesel vehicles in the city by 2020.

48% of RoI drivers cited being diesel as a key influence when buying a car, compared to 15% who cited petrol.

185

2025

100%Ban on sale of all fossil fuel-based cars in Norway.

186

THE BIG SMOKELondon: a proposed £10 emissions surcharge on pre-2006 vehicles isn’t enough: environmentalists want a ban on diesel vehicles.

187

LOBBYING POWERGreenpeace is publicly lobbying the London Mayor and UK Prime Minister to act faster to counter urban pollution.

187

188188

CONSUMERS SEE THE SIGNS

+25%More incidences of age spots on citizens cheeks, after just a 10 microgrammesincrease in NO2 per cubic metre.

SOURCE: LEIBNIZ RESEARCH INSTITUTEFOR ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE.

189

DATA

190

SOURCE: EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT AGENCY

KILLER POLLUTION

400,000Deaths caused by pollution in Europe every year.

191 SOURCE: SANTÉ PUBLIQUE FRANCE

GALLIC FUG

48,000People killed by air pollution in France each year.

192 SOURCE: KING’S COLLEGE LONDON

LONDON PALLING

4,000Londoners killed in a few weeks of the ‘great smog’ of 1952.

9,500Londoners killed each year due to pollution in 2015.

193 SOURCE: WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION 2016

SMOGGY EMERALD ISLE

681People died in Ireland during 2012 because of air pollution related issues. 15 people per 100,000.

In May 2016 the WHO named several Irish towns/ cities as breaching air pollution safety levels. Including Longford town, Armagh, Bray, Belfast, Derry, Galway and Dublin.

194 SOURCE: POLLUTION INDEX

DIRTY EUROPE

77.2Pollution index for Turin – the third worst in Europe.

70.5Barcelona at #5.

195SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FORUM

KILLER CARS

23%Of global greenhouse gas emissions are caused by transport.

196 SOURCE: KINGS COLLEGE LONDON

KILLER CARS

40,000

More than deaths caused directly from road accidents.

Lives cut short each year in the UK by air pollution.

20x

197

CHINA: A VIEW OF THE FUTURE

70%

About PM2.5 (#2).

Of Chinese are “very concerned” about water pollution (#1).

61%58%About vehicle exhaust (#3).

SOURCE:MINTEL MARKETING POLLUTION-PROOF PRODUCTS CHINA AUGUST 2015

198

SOURCE: MINTEL MARKETING POLLUTION-PROOF PRODUCTS CHINA AUGUST 2015; 3,000 INTERNET USERS AGED 20-49

CHINA: A VIEW OF THE FUTURE

83%

An air purifier.

Of Chinese consumers have bought a mask.

58%57%A water purifier.

198

199

GREEN AND TECH PROTECTION

52%

Check the air quality index.

Of Chinese consumers say they “place plants around me” to counter pollution.

33%SOURCE: MINTEL MARKETING POLLUTION-PROOF PRODUCTS CHINA AUGUST 2015

200

BEAUTY PROTECTION PURCHASES

28%

Haircare products with anti-pollution claims.

Of Chinese consumers have bought skincare products with anti-pollution claims.

24%Source: MINTEL MARKETING POLLUTION-PROOF PRODUCTS CHINA AUGUST 2015; 3,000 INTERNET USERS AGED 20-49

201

EAT YOURSELF CLEAN

45%Of Chinese consumers consider food therapy as “very useful” in terms of pollution-proofing.

SOURCE: MINTEL MARKETING POLLUTION PROOF PRODUCTS CHINA AUGUST 2015

202

SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONConsumers agreeing that the environment (e.g. pollution) affects skin:

SOURCE: MINTEL CONSUMER DATA CHARTS

41%France

37%Italy

35%Germany

28%Spain

203

WHAT DOESIT MEAN?

204

POLLUTION PROTECTION PRODUCTS

August 2016, London: Elizabeth Arden uses live pollution data to promote the benefits of its Prevage City Smart Hydrating Shield SPF50 product.

205

POLLUTION PROTECTION PRODUCTS

April 2016, India: Dettol and Amazon launch a protective air mask.

206

POLLUTION PROTECTION PRODUCTSChina: Mila is a shanghai-based start-up that lets consumers rent smart air purifiers for a monthly subscription fee.

206

207

URBAN GREENINGMoscow: city planners are to plant 3,000 trees along ‘garden ring’, a road that circles the centre of the city.

207

208

TREE PLANTING IN IRELANDThe Tree Council of Ireland & Tetra Pak in October made 1,000 Rowan tree saplings available to Irish school children through the website, www.treeday.ie.

208

209

POLLUTION BEAUTY PRODUCTSLondon: Iluxe Organics has opened a pop-up hair salon that offers a detox hair treatment and blow-dry to deep cleanse polluted hair.

209

210

TESLA MODEL X

$64,100

On single charge.

Starting cost.

466 km11% of RoI drivers are cited being a fully electric as a key factor when buying a car in the future.

211

ELECTRIC EINDHOVEN

03 October 2016 – Netherlands: Employees of the Dutch bank ABN Amro in Eindhoven are set to exclusively use shared electric vehicles instead of company cars.

SUPPORTED TRENDS: WHY BUY

212

GREENER DELIVERIES

Foodservice: expect more initiatives like on-foot pizza delivery from London’s Sodo – live streamed by periscope.

213

ANTI POLLUTION ART ADVERTISINGMadrid: Shiseido’s Titanium billboard eliminates Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Nitrogen Oxide, equivalent to 1,000 trees.

213

214

ANTI POLLUTION ADVERTS

Green City Solution’s CityTrees are vertical gardens that do the work of 275 trees by inhaling pollution and have been installed in Germany, Norway and Hong Kong. They double as advertising hoardings with NFC and beacon technology.

215

ANTI POLLUTION CONSTRUCTION Australia: Flinders University has created red polymer bricks that absorb Mercury pollution.

215

216

ANTI POLLUTION CONSTRUCTION

Alcoa’s Titanium Dioxide-coated Aluminium called Reynobond with EcoClean reacts with sunlight to decompose air pollutants in to harmless particles.

These panels are 5% more expensive than standard, but save on maintenance costs.

SOURCE: MINTEL

217

ANTI POLLUTION PACKAGING

The Body Shop is working on turning greenhouse gasses in to in to packaging lids, in order to reduce its use of oil-based plastics by 70% by 2020.

218

OCEAN PLASTIC

Adidas is supporting non profit Sea Shepherd and has made a sample shoe knitted together from recycled fishing nets.

219

EAT YOURSELF CLEANWe’ll see brands positioning “superfoods” as immunity boosters, as well as others championing their pure sourcing from unpolluted areas, which is standard for bottled waters, but beginning to emerge in sectors like fish and meat .

219

220

PURE, UNPOLLUTED PROVENANCELABEYRIE GRANDE TRADITION FUMÉ D’ ÉCOSSE IS MARKETED AS BEING SELCTED FROM SITES KNOW FOR THEIR QUALITY OF WATER.

220

221

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?1. European Governments, activists and consumers

are becoming more aware of and concerned about pollution.

2. Asia’s protection market signifies the products Europeans will buy into.

3. Beauty is at the vanguard but ‘eat yourself clean’ foods can follow.

4. Pollution protection brands will also look at anti-pollution construction, advertising and packaging materials.

5. Anti-pollution products to be marketed as savvy and stylish.

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© 2016 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel. mintel.com

RICHARD COPE

rcope@mintel.com@Richard_Mintel