European Consumer Trends 2016 Mintel Hi Res

My Mind’s EyeOn the Waterfront

Pond FilterSpace-Time Continuum

Archbeacons

Virtual and augmented reality technologies

enter our homes and businesses to entertain,

trial and train.

Shortages will make water an increasingly

precious and politically charged commodity,

encouraging innovation in sourcing, recycling and

manufacturing.

Fears surrounding the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

will cause consumers and brands to react by

favouring purer and more natural products.

Space and time are at a premium, becoming

new currencies in their own right and creating

new marketplaces.

Beacons can flourish in retail and leisure

by making consumers feel in the know and ahead of the game.

CONSUMER TRENDS 2016

EUROPE16

© 2015 Mintel Group Ltd. All Rights Reserved. Confidential to Mintel.

Mintel’s team of global expert analysts have identified and analysed five key

consumer trends set to impact the European consumer market in 2016.

CONSUMER TRENDS 2016

EUROPE16

MY MIND’S EYE

SPACE-TIME CONTINUUM

POND FILTER

ARCH- BEACONS

ON THE WATERFRONT

COME TO LIFE IN

2016

36 What’s happening

in 2016?

43 Why consumers will

buy into this

46 Where next?


in 2016?


buy into this

28 Where next?


in 2016?


buy into this

66 Where next?


in 2016?


buy into this

82 Where next?

86 On the Waterfront

88 Space-Time Continuum

90 My Mind’s Eye

92 Pond Filter

94 Archbeacons


in 2016?


buy into this

10 Where next?

3317 53 7105 85

ON THE WATERFRONT

Shortages will make clean water, as well as waterless alternatives, increasingly precious commodities, with potential politically charged implications.

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WHAT’S HAPPENING IN 2016?The year 2016 will bring peak water shortages in the West, as we suffer the agricultural fallout from an extreme period of global drought. In the US, California is suffering its worst drought in 1,200 years, with 98% of the state officially in drought and 32% in extreme drought, compelling it to embark on a goal of reducing water usage by 20% before 2020. Brazil has been suffering its worst drought in 80 years, leaving 17 of the country’s 18 largest reservoirs at lower levels than during the last water crisis in 2001 and São Paulo reduced to rationing. Prolonged drought in Alberta, Canada could cause

grain production to drop by 25-30% in 2015, according to agriculture officials, whilst drought in Thailand has left 960,000 hectares of land reserved for paddy fields barren, threatening global rice shortages.

We live in a world of fragile agriculture, with a third of total food production in areas of extreme water stress – tree nuts (50%), wheat (43%), corn (35%) and oranges (33%) are at particularly high risk, according to World Resource Institute’s Aqueduct. These crises are the latest chapter in a bigger story, where 11% of the population does not have access

to clean water (World Health Organization; UNICEF) and the world needs to increase its water supply for irrigation by 14-17% by 2030 just to meet its dietary needs (United Nations Environment Programme).

In 2016, as food and water shortages hit, prices will rise and water will become a major issue for retailers, manufacturers and consumers.

Consumers are alive to the need to conserve water for their own needs and will warm to brands that can help achieve this at a personal and public level.

WHY CONSUMERS WILL BUY INTO THISConsumers are alive to the need to conserve water for their own means and will warm to brands that can help achieve this at a personal and public level. In the household sector, consumers are keen to conserve water, with Mintel research finding that as many as 33% of UK consumers say they’d pay more for fittings that save on water or energy bills.

In areas of water shortages bottled water can be a welcome saviour, but in politically conscious areas where it is less necessary, bottled water has the potential to become a political hand grenade for brands. Despite it being something of a mainstay of their foodservice cultures, Mintel research shows no less than 52% of Italian and 49% of French consumers are concerned about the environmental impact of drinking bottled water. While in the UK, 28% of consumers hold the same concerns.

Consumers will do their bit to reduce consumption, purify the water they have access to and also prevent pollution. Indeed, some 49% of UK consumers worry about the impact of using too many chemical-based cleaning products on the environment and 86% of middle-class Chinese consumers feel that it is their responsibility to use more products that can help to protect the environment, such as biodegradable or recyclable products.

In Europe, more than three quarters of Spanish, Italian, French and German consumers are willing to pay more for washing up liquid that requires less water for rinsing.

Across Europe, consumers are also open to less water-dependent and indeed waterless products in beauty and personal care, with 28% of UK consumers and 33% of Italians saying that they would be interested in double-concentrated bath or shower products. Meanwhile, some 13% of UK consumers and 15% of French consumers say that they would be interested in dry soap, bath and shower products. Meanwhile, some 24% of UK 16-24 year olds and 28% of French 16-24 year olds say that they would be interested in dry use soap, bath and shower products.

SOURCE: MINTEL

European interest in an ultra-concentrated washing up liquid, 2014

Spanish

Italian

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German

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68%

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WHERE NEXT?The obvious impact on agriculture is lowered production, financial losses and job losses. The University of California estimates that the cost of 2015’s drought to the state will be USD $2.74 billion and 10,000 seasonal farm jobs. Factor in that 80% of the world’s almonds are produced in California and the wider knock-on effects become obvious. Likewise, it makes sense to consider that 35%

of coffee beans originate in Brazil (according to the International Coffee Organization) and that it is also the largest producer of soybeans in the world. We’re also likely to see shortages – and higher prices – in wine, beef and rice. Shortages will demand alternatives, so we may see more examples of foods like prickly pear pitched not just towards livestock, but to humans as well. We have already

seen examples of this in the US, such as Open Nature’s Prickly Pear Sorbet and Spoetzl Brewery’s Shiner Prickly Pear Summer Seasonal Beer. If drought hits meat production, then insect-based products might receive a further boost as a protein alternative.

If drought hits meat production, then insect-based products might receive a further boost as a protein alternative.

We’ll certainly see more concentrates in beverages, including coffee, and seasonings, as well as water-sourcing product alternatives like Spain’s Boqueron beer brewed with seawater. In Finland, Elovena Oat Flakes claim to require no irrigation and are processed with steam, so that very little waste water is produced. Beer brands have been notably active in their attempts to address these issues. Heineken has reduced its breweries’ water consumption by 23% since 2008 en route to a target of 30% by 2020. Anheuser-Busch ceased beer production in June 2015 to provide canned

water for Texas and Oklahoma storm victims. This shift in status towards water becoming a charitable product in America was strengthened by the Detroit Water Project, which matches donors worldwide with Detroit residents to help pay for their water bills.

All of this might make uncomfortable reading for those bottled water companies who have already paid for access and use of precious water. They face an uncertain future as these brands may be in danger of owning a precious humanitarian resource, and a potentially pariah consumer

product. Newcomers in the industry might be brave enough to follow the route of Singapore’s NEWater, which is made from reclaimed water from the city state’s drains and sewers.

It is retailers who will have to pass on higher prices to consumers and also face the wrath of those opposed to bottled water products. They can meet consumer need for concentrates, waterless products and protein alternatives, as well as promoting the integrity and safety of new launches in these areas.

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PANASONIC IS CULTIVATING VEGETABLES VIA A CONTROLLED SOIL-BASED ENVIRONMENT WITH LED LIGHTING

Technology is where innovation in agriculture and water generation can help supply consumers and lend brands a progressive, favourable edge.

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Since consumers and governments have been pressing for efficiency, regardless of drought, we’ve seen household manufacturers improving water and energy ratings of appliances, as well as brands like Surf, Bold, Daz and Persil introducing more concentrated products such as laundry capsules and cleaning gels. Brands must also work harder to ensure the water we have isn’t compromised further. EU regulations are already restricting phosphates to prevent them entering the water supply. Some companies will work to make water recycling, restoration and research a part of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) programme. An example of this is Biokleen, with its ‘restoration’ of six million gallons of water through the Bonneville Environmental Foundation’s Water Restoration Certificate program.

Here, household brands can embrace technological innovation to work with their customers. IKEA has done this with its Concept Kitchen 2025 that uses two sinks – one for toxic ‘black water’ that goes out to the sewers, and one for ‘grey water’ that is reused in the dishwasher or to water the plants above the sink. Meanwhile, in Brazil, Exatron’s intelligent shower helps users monitor their showers to save water.

Following the example of restaurants, cafés and nightclubs in the Czech Republic that are selling tap water to help people in Haiti, it’s easy to see how bottled water might attain a charitable association in foodservice. Might we even see a bottled water tax at some outlets, taking inspiration from the carbonated drinks levy imposed by Jamie Oliver at his

restaurants? In cuisine, we’re presented with a classic ‘Accentuate the Negative’ scenario, where shortages justify more adventurous and affordable forays into alternatives like cactus, insects and saltwater brews.

Technology is where innovation in agriculture and water generation can help supply consumers and lend brands a progressive, favourable edge. We’ve seen brands like Panasonic advance the

cause of ‘city farms’ by using LED lighting and hydroponic technology to grow produce. The University of Engineering and Technology (UTEC) in Lima, Peru has shown how this might afford advertising opportunities with its dehumidifier billboard that yields thousands of organically grown heads of lettuce per week, these are then given away to local residents. Fog harvesting technology offers another area where brands can get involved in raising water yields in a sustainable manner. In Israel, treated sewage water is already supporting nearly 25% of water demand. Gates Foundation in the US has already funded a giant machine called the Janicki Omniprocessor that safely turns human waste into clean drinking water.

In the beauty sector, we’ll see more interest and innovation in face, body and teeth cleansing wipes, dry body washes and shampoos. Expect to see a greater use of freeze-dried botanical powders and plant waters and botanical oils as water alternatives. Waterless products, using high concentration and no preservatives, can be expensive, but they are growing in Korean skincare. As water becomes a hot topic it might be that we see more self-diagnostic tools, like L’Oréal’s ‘chip’ to measure skin moisture levels, as well as consultancy services that evaluate overall skin hydration. With the European Commission also examining an Environmental Footprint label, it may be that water efficiency gets flagged up on CPG products in the same way that it is highlighted for white goods.

European suffering might not amount to much more than a shortage of certain foodstuffs from drought hit areas, but innovations and CSR practices in water sourcing, recycling and conservation will most certainly come to the forefront.

PANASONIC LED LIGHTING

KELPIE SEAWEED ALE | WILLIAMS BROTHERS BREWING COMPANY

UNDERSTAND WHAT INFLUENCES YOUR CONSUMERS

Our trend analysts look for the crucial connections and patterns between trends, as well as developments in behaviours and values

FIND OUT MORE

Head to page 86 to see how this trend

prediction could take shape in the consumer

marketplace in 2016.

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http://www.mintel.com/mintel-trends?utm_source=download&utm_medium=pdf&utm_campaign=eu-trends

Space and time are at a premium, becoming new currencies in their own right and creating new marketplaces as we wait less, own less and rent and share more.

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WHAT’S HAPPENING IN 2016?

More people are renting or sharing homes with family members, creating a space-pressed culture of transience and ‘non ownership’. Buy-to-let (BTL) has been a major factor, with the number of rental properties in the UK increasing by 2.5 million between 2000 and 2012, compared with an increase of just 400,000 for owner-occupied

properties. In the US, more Millennials are renting and by 2030 the percentage of households that own their own home will fall to 61.3%, from a current level of 63.7%, (according to Urban Institute), while rented properties are expected to grow.

47% of UK consumers currently rent the home they live in.

VRUMI LETS CONSUMERS RENT OUT UNUSED SPACE IN THEIR HOUSE

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According to Mintel, almost half of UK consumers (47%) currently rent the property they live in as their main home, rising to 63% of 25-34 year olds and 55% of 34-44 year olds. As a result of increased rental competition, we’re also seeing more Millennials stay with their parents in multi-generational homes. In the UK, Mintel found that 37% of 16-34 year olds live at home with parents, guardians or other relatives. Household space is also being squeezed across Europe. Focusing on older Millennials, Eurostat reports that in 2014, 37% of Spanish 25-34s and 47% of Italian 25-34s lived at home with their parents.

In view of this, it’s no wonder that it’s Millennials who are creating sharing economy solutions that seek to maximise the usage and availability of temporary, transient space for storage, parking, working and sleeping. What’s more, US politics will raise awareness of space-sharing solutions like Airbnb and ‘time-is-money’ taxi hailing apps, as US presidential hopefuls lock horns on issues surrounding taxation and employee status. Democrats are promising to crack down on employers who misclassify workers as independent contractors and examine tax loopholes, whilst Republicans are taking a more ‘hands-off’

approach and celebrating the American freedoms integral to Silicon Valley’s start-ups, whatever the outcome, the so-called ‘Uber Election’ is great free PR for the brands involved.

Companies, meanwhile, are focusing on expansion, with Uber having already invested USD $1 billion in China in 2015. Airbnb is expanding into storage, mindful of start-ups like Roost that are trying to develop this market. As time and space continue to develop as ‘new currencies’, we are going to see a slew of new businesses seeking to hire out homes, parking and storage spaces, as well as deliver to us within the hour.

It’s no wonder that it’s Millennials who are creating the sharing economy solutions that seek to maximise the usage and availability of temporary, transient space for storage, parking, working and sleeping.

AMAZON’S DASH BUTTON ALLOWS SHOPPERS TO REORDER FREQUENTLY USED DOMESTIC PRODUCTS WITH THE CLICK OF A REAL-LIFE BUTTON

AMAZON DASH BUTTON

KIVO COLLABORATIVE FURNITURE PROVIDES BALANCE BETWEEN OPEN SPACE AND PRIVACY

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WHY CONSUMERS WILL BUY INTO THISIn an urbanising world of high-density living, diminished space and funds means automotive access – rather than outright ownership – makes sense. Research from Navigant Consulting found that in 2013, global revenues from car-sharing clubs were approximately USD $1 billion. In addition, according to Mintel the short-term car rental market in Russia grew by 8.4% in 2014 and will increase by an additional estimated 8.1% in 2015.

This is part of a wider trend towards sustainable, affordable sharing. Indeed, Mintel research shows that 57% of UK consumers say they always or sometimes borrow things instead of buying

them and 34% attend Big Swap or Swishing Events to swap items they no longer need with others. These same factors are playing out in leisure, where 24% of US Millennials have stayed overnight in a home share or home rental (e.g. Airbnb) or home swap instead of using a hotel.

Space pressures are also dictating the design of furniture and storage in our homes. Mintel research shows that 35% of UK consumers do not have enough space for lots of cookware or bakeware items and almost one quarter (22%) say that extra storage is a key factor in explaining why people have bought new furniture.

These issues also require smarter, smaller product packaging. Indeed, some 21% of UK consumers prefer small packs because they take up less storage space, whilst 38% of Chinese consumers say they prefer tubeless toilet roll to toilet roll with a tube since it saves space. Meanwhile, some 22% of US consumers also say that they buy products based on how easy they are to store.

HYDAWAY

SKWAG SHOE SWAPPING IPHONE APP

ONLINE PLATFORM EVES24 PROVIDES JEWELLERY BUYING AND RENTAL

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BORN TO DIE BEER

‘Mono dose’ products will be positioned as single-serve options with retailers making a virtue of small-batch production as a way to save space, energy and materials.

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WHERE NEXT?The spread of Uber is sparking protest and competition. Regardless of whether or not legislators clip its wings, the model is here to stay. Development is ongoing, in the form of apps like Maaxi in London – that allows consumers to reserve individual seats in black cabs – and sharing systems like Scooterino in Rome, that uses a scooter ride sharing model to help beat the city’s busy traffic. Savvy automotive brands are embracing the model, with Ford launching its own peer-to-peer car sharing scheme in a number of cities. As all of this aligns driving

with access, functionality and convenience, it might be that we see a separate development towards car clubs for leisure and pleasure (slower, classic models) gaining popularity at weekends and during holidays. With space at a premium, expect more initiatives like France’s Parkego and Spain’s LetMeSpace start-ups, which help people to make a profit from their unused parking spaces.

In the beauty sector, we’ve seen businesses that rent out nail polishes and we’ll see more people signing up for unlimited visits

to gyms, spas and salons for a monthly or annual fee. ‘Mono dose’ products will be positioned as single-serve options with retailers making a virtue of small-batch production as a way to save space, energy and materials.

With space inside and outside the home at a premium, ventures like Roost in the US and LetMeSpace in Spain will capitalise by helping consumers find parking and storage spaces in their neighbourhoods. Hong Kong start-up StuffGenie meets both aspects of this prediction, by offering

on-demand storage with pick-up and delivery to customers’ homes, offices or any other place of their choosing. It’s not just space that we want to hire, it’s things to put and use in our homes. French DIY retailer Mr.Bricolage’s La Dépanne offers a sharing platform for tools. India’s Rentomojo is an online hiring marketplace for furniture, furnishings, appliances and other products for the home. Airbnb has made our homes part of the leisure sharing economy, but in the UK, Vrumi shows how this applies to business too, by helping people rent unused rooms in their houses

as offices or meeting rooms for the day. Looie goes one step further by offering out our toilets to the public. Space concerns – particularly in 3G households – are leading to flexibility and multi-functionality needs. These are being met by furniture and furnishings companies like Folditure with its wall murals that can double as furniture and Kivo and Meccano Home with their smart, adjustable, fluid space-saving solutions.

Cloud-based storage has decluttered technology

significantly, but diminished ‘ownership’ of technology products might be driven further by subscription or ‘hire-and-upgrade’ models like BuyBye.

LOOIE SERVICED RESTROOMS ON DEMAND

LOOIE

We’ll see more people signing up for unlimited visits to gyms, spas and salons for a monthly or annual fee.

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These same household principles will be applied to other CPG products, with food and drink brands seeking to replicate the SodaStream model with concentrates across other drinks, as well as coffee and seasonings. As we see more single-serve launches in pasta and pizza, ‘daily’ portions that don’t fill cupboards might gain credence. More innovations like mini ice cream and mini cake products will seek to appeal on health grounds, whilst also tapping into technology’s mantra that small equals smart.

The sharing economy is already most prevalent in transport and travel through Uber and Airbnb. This will rapidly develop into independent luggage couriers, limo versions of Uber and Tinder’s avowed desire

to hook you up with platonic travel guides upon your arrival at new destinations. With the advent of innovations like the Hotel Banks in Antwerp offering guests a mini bar filled with fashion for guests to rent, the whole concept of packing for the holiday will be under threat. This will be replaced by a pre-selected wardrobe of hired outfits and accessories – from wetsuits to evening wear – waiting for you at your destination.

Meanwhile, as time becomes a currency, we’ll see more people subscribing to unlimited flights (Belgium’s Take Air), concerts (the US’s Jukely), pasta (the US’s Olive Garden). Visits to gyms, spas and salons for a monthly or annual fee and more demand for the kind of

same day or within-the-hour delivery proffered by Liefery in Germany and Zuper in Austria.

The pressures causing this trend (urbanisation, tenancies, multi-generational homes) represent a slow creep, rather than an annual explosion, but saving time and space will become hallmarks of consumer savviness and common currencies for the marketing language of campaigns.

In 2016 we’ll see a move towards more concentrated and compact products.

MECCANO HOME




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MY MIND’S EYE

Virtual and augmented reality technologies enter our homes and businesses to entertain, trial and train, creating a more visually-focused consumer.

OCULUS RIFT

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A host of virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) headset launches will see consumers don headsets or goggles to enter immersive gamescapes or layer entertainment/educational content over their normal field of vision. Growing interest will inspire more

businesses to embrace this technology as a means of creating immersive entertainment and experiential advertising. Consumers will be able to virtually ‘test drive’ everything from cars to hotel rooms, or learn how to perform tasks.

Facebook’s Oculus Rift is perhaps the ‘poster boy’ for this new generation of technology and is expected to go on sale in Q1 2016 at somewhere around $1,500, with Deutsche Bank projecting sales of around 1.5 million headsets during 2016. The focus here is on immersive, interactive game play with fellow players. Valve’s HTC Vive may launch even

earlier and pushes the boundaries further when it comes to physical gameplay. HTC Vive allows the wearer to walk around in the real and virtual worlds simultaneously band is equipped with ‘chaperone’ sensors, warning users with barrier lines if they’re close to a wall. It also has hand held controllers that allow users hands to pick up tools in games. The console equivalent

of these virtual ventures is Sony’s PlayStation VR (formerly known as Project Morpheus), which is expected to arrive in 2016. PlayStation VR uses a head-mounted visor for immersive 3D gaming displayed on both the headset and on TV.

OCULUS RIFT

MICROSOFT HOLOLENS

VALVE HTC VIVE

SONY’S PLAYSTATION VR

SONY’S PLAYSTATION VR

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Moving into the AR space, Microsoft HoloLens bills itself as “the first fully untethered, see-through holographic computer”. It uses goggles that act as an ‘all-in-one’ PC in glasses, enabling users to integrate holographic images into the real world. This means that they can project images from digital devices into the environment before them – namely onto walls or into the foreground. This allows wearers to overlay video demos onto Skype broadcasts, sports broadcasts or 3D Minecraft games onto their living room wall. HoloLens is expected to launch in

Q1 2016. Along with PlayStation VR, HoloLens will benefit from the launch of Windows 10, as the new operating system (OS) will enable users to stream gameplays via apps or between devices over Wi-Fi, thus allowing integration across devices and cross-selling opportunities. Finally, Magic Leap’s AR goggles also overlay information or game characters over what we naturally see and could also reach us in 2016. The project is in development with Google backing.

MAGIC LEAP

MICROSOFT HOLOLENS

MICROSOFT HOLOLENS

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Once consumers become fully aware of the power and possibilities of VR and AR the potential is surely much stronger. US STARTUP MAGIC LEAP OFFERS HEAD-MOUNTED VIRTUAL RETINAL

DISPLAY WHICH SUPERIMPOSES 3D IMAGERY OVER REAL WORLD OBJECTS

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WHY CONSUMERS WILL BUY INTO THISHighlighting strong market potential, Mintel research finds that some 50% of UK consumers are already aware of VR headsets and 31% would be interested in using them, rising to 53% of 16-24 year olds.

The potential power and appeal of these devices is immense: they are immersive, instructive and interactive.

Our excitement would be tempered if these innovations were confined to in-home gaming and to those players with the funds to buy them. The fact is that, beyond entertainment, they present businesses with an opportunity to provide in-store experiences and reassurance in areas which consumers continue to value.

KNOX NEXT VR VIEWER | THE NEXT IN GOOGLE CARDBOARD

42% of UK consumers are worried about the impact that VR headsets might have on social interaction.

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Among those interested in VR headsets, some 64% are interested in using them for gaming and 50% are interested in using them for virtual cultural experiences, such as a virtual museum. Meanwhile, just under half (47%) of the same UK consumers are interested in using them for holiday experiences such as virtual tours of hotels or resorts.

Overall, some 66% of UK consumers agree that VR devices have the potential to change our lives for the better. By contrast, 42% are worried about

the impact that VR headsets might have on social interaction, suggesting further appetite for the uptake of purely analogue experiences in the interest of balanced lifestyle, documented in Mintel’s ‘Switch Off’ Trend.

Brands will need to publicise the benefits of AR and VR to consumers, but even a year ahead of these devices hitting the market we have seen a burgeoning interest in their possibilities. Mintel research finds that one in 10 (11%) UK consumers are interested in

using VR for exercising in-home (e.g. simulation of cycling in the Tour de France) and 15% of UK travel agency customers are interested in VR tours of destinations. Once consumers become fully aware of the power and possibilities of VR, the potential is surely much stronger.

MICROSOFT HOLOLENS

In advance of AR and VR devices hitting the market we are already seeing a burgeoning consumer interest in their possibilities.

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WHERE NEXT?Beyond the immersive in-home experiences afforded by Oculus Rift et al, the possibilities of virtually exploring locations present a host of opportunities for out-of-home leisure venues. The Google Cultural Institute’s Cardboard project, where an app and an USD $18 cardboard viewer turn a smartphone into a low-budget VR headset, allows people to virtually explore palaces, galleries and museums. These experiences will become richer as the Google Deep Stereo project optimises Street View for VR. Murales con Arte – a mobile app that lets people take VR tours of Peru’s street art – is typical of the new virtual cultural experiences made possible by this affordable technology. When it comes to cinema, VR may quickly become the next 3D, thanks to Jaunt (a toolset that allows directors to film in VR). The former has already been used by Google Cardboard to put you on stage with Paul McCartney during a live rendition of Live and Let Die. Meanwhile, content studios like Hammerhead in the UK are pioneering immersive VR films, like alien abduction sci-fi Presence, to be experienced on a headset.

In the UK, we’ve already seen David Attenborough’s First Life (at London’s Natural History Museum) grant people a Samsung Gear VR guided tour of prehistoric oceans and their inhabitants. This ‘edutainment’ angle might prove to be the most compelling. Start-ups like Dassault Systèmes and Relative Dimensions have recreated the attack on Pearl Harbour and life in Elizabethan London, while others are striving towards an enlightening future of virtual lectures by the likes of Albert Einstein. Beyond this, we’re seeing physical activities take on a virtual dimension, inspired by consumer appetite for virtual gaming, with the virtual surfing experience at Cité de l’Océan of Biarritz, France, using Oculus Rift in collaboration with YouRiding. Next up, we’ll see virtual theme parks, beginning with The Void, opening in Pleasant Grove, Utah, in June 2016.

DAVID ATTENBOROUGH’S FIRST LIFE

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The possibilities of virtually exploring locations present a host of opportunities for out-of-home leisure venues. DAVID ATTENBOROUGH’S FIRST LIFE

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While some consumers have concerns about VR, it’s in automotive where its reassurance and demonstration value becomes most apparent. Lexus and Volvo have shown sufficient faith in the technology to provide virtual test drives of their vehicles, whilst Chrysler has used Oculus Rift to show how its cars are assembled. Audi is also rolling out headsets at dealerships to enable people to virtually tour the interiors of its vehicles. But VR and AR can act as training, as well as a

sales tool. For example, BMW Mini’s ‘Mini Augmented Vision’ project is geared towards better and safer driving, while the Automobile Club of Romania’s Street View Test takes students through Google Street View to provide a faux experience behind the wheel.

It’s no surprise that these reassuring, demonstrative qualities are also finding their way into another big-ticket purchase sector,

namely travel. Thomas Cook has been using ‘try before you buy’ VR content at its flagship stores across the UK, Germany and Belgium. Customers can experience a 360-degree tour of Sentido resorts; the company is also considering offering city and destination tours in the future. Beyond exploration, we’re also seeing brands like Emirates and Qantas look at the possibilities afforded by AR and VR for in-flight and airport entertainment, whilst Marriott is offering VRoom Service, allowing guests to order inspiring virtual experiences direct to their rooms. Another area where VR may thrive is that of souvenirs; the next stage for travel customers will be to document their own VR holiday experiences to keep and revisit back home.

As headsets become more prevalent, customers’ expectations about how they can be used in stores to demo products across all sectors will grow. John Lewis and Marks & Spencer have already begun using AR and VR

While some consumers have concerns about VR, it’s in automotive where the reassurance and demonstration value becomes apparent.

respectively to help customers envision their products in their homes. Growing interest will inspire more businesses to embrace this technology as a means of creating immersive experiences, such as North Face’s in-store tour of California’s Yosemite National Park, or immersive advertisements, such as Boursin’s Sensorium ‘refrigerator rollercoaster’ film. Elsewhere we’ll see more brands develop apps like Nescafé 360°, which takes viewers in to the brand’s farmland to assure you of its sustainable credentials.

Away from retail, we’ve seen VR used by Lucid to help architects explore virtual buildings and cities and by Rewind to help Savills Estate Agents’ clients peruse potential properties. Lowe’s Holoroom is an AR tool that empowers consumers by allowing them to visualise home improvements and there is huge potential in the DIY sector to show customers differing scenarios for home décor, furnishing or even garden concepts. Another area of opportunity is in virtual instruction manuals that show people how to use tools or wire electrics safely.

Beauty is one of the few areas where Google Glass has been used effectively; for example, YSL and Selfridges filmed make-up tutorials to take home. Meanwhile, concepts like Panasonic’s ‘virtual mirror’ in 2015, which can analyse

an individual’s face and suggest make-up and hairstyles to suit them (with the image overlayed on their reflection), have been well received and driven store footfall. Besides entertainment, brands like Murad with its YouthCam have been bold and brave enough to embrace virtual scenarios where customers can see how their skin would look without using anti-ageing and/or SPF products, suggesting potential for ambitious VR headset versions of the same concept.

It’s in health treatments that we’ve possibly seen the most imaginative and inspirational use of VR. The Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) has been building VR game scenarios for US Iraq war veterans’ to help with recovery, whilst the company Virtually Better uses similar virtual experiences to help people confront phobias. At

Shriner’s Hospital in Texas, we’ve seen the wow factor of immersive virtual gaming used as a form of ‘digital morphine’, as burns victims play The Hoffman’s Snow World VR game to distract them from the pain of treatment.

Cost will preclude VR and AR from entering everyone’s homes, but it will be increasingly embraced by businesses seeking to variously entertain and reassure consumers, in a bid to win their attention and their custom.

BMW MINI’S ‘MINI AUGMENTED VISION’






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Fears that the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) may weaken EU regulations on sourcing, ingredients and ethics in favour of US multinationals will cause consumers and craft brands to react with purer and more natural products.

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WHAT’S HAPPENING IN 2016?The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a proposed free trade agreement between the European Union and the United States. Whether or not the TTIP comes to pass in 2016 is something of a moot point. Its continued progress through its ratification stages will be accompanied by negative media coverage and growing public concern about its implications – particularly for Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG).

According to the European Commission, TTIP will help people and businesses large and small by opening up the US to EU firms; helping cut red tape that firms face when exporting and setting new rules to make it easier and fairer to export, import and invest overseas.

Opponents believe that by reducing the regulatory barriers to trade for big business, the treaty will weaken (amongst other things), food safety law and environmental legislation. This has the potential to flood the market with genetically-modified processed foods, untested beauty products and produce treated with pesticides and growth hormones.

If passed, the TTIP will have significant ramifications for the CPG sector on both sides of the Atlantic.

In 2015, as reported by The Economist, some 70% of all processed foods sold in US supermarkets contain genetically modified (GM) ingredients. By contrast, the EU allows virtually no GM foods and requires labelling for GM ingredients. The US also has far laxer restrictions on the use of pesticides, food dyes and ingredients like formaldehyde in cosmetics and personal care products, as well as growth hormones in its beef, which are restricted in Europe due to links to cancer.

In Europe, a company has to prove a substance is safe before it can be used as an ingredient. In the US however, any substance can be used until it’s proven unsafe, thus creating a cosmetics scenario where the EU bans 1,200 substances from use and the US just 12. The main focus is on consumer concerns around product safety and integrity.

The European Commission is striving to dispel ‘myths’ around the impact of TTIP but does nothing to dispel allegations of secrecy, with revelations that politicians can only view the treaty’s text in a secure ‘reading room’ in Brussels. All of this adds to the distrust of governments and corporations, as documented in our Mintel Trend ‘Decline of Deference’, triggering a reaction where consumers go local, go natural or go DIY instead.

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WHY CONSUMERS WILL BUY INTO THISOn 19 April 2015, thousands of Europeans marched in protest against the progress of TTIP and by the summer a European Citizens’ Initiative against TTIP carried over 2.3 million signatures. Ahead of growing awareness of TTIP and its potential pitfalls, Mintel research already shows that Europeans are concerned about food safety, opposed to pesticides

and GM foods and in favour of local and organic produce. Indeed, around two thirds of German, French, Spanish and Italian consumers say they are concerned about how safe it is to eat fruit and vegetables, while over 50% of the same consumers believe locally grown vegetables are worth paying more for.

EAT 17

EAT 17, A RELAXED UK RESTAURANT USING LOCALLY-SOURCED INGREDIENTS

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Similar attitudes abound elsewhere; just under half (49%) of UK consumers believe that the food industry provides food that is safe to eat. Meanwhile, 47% of Republic of Ireland (RoI) and around two in five (39%) Northern Ireland (NI) consumers think that freshly baked bread (with no added chemicals or preservatives) is worth paying more for. Whilst distrust of the food industry is already strong in the UK, negative news stories surrounding TTIP threaten to make this worse.

Of all the countries presenting a possible bulwark to any influx of lightly regulated US brands, it is Italy that perhaps presents the staunchest challenge. According to La Repubblica, the country’s organics market grew by 220% between 2005 and 2014. Coldiretti reported that 46% of Italians were growing their own fruit and vegetables in the spring of 2015 and 26% of these Italians were doing so in order to have ‘real’ and ‘healthy’ food.

Across Europe, Mintel data finds that encouraging proportions of consumers are buying more food and drink products made with extra care and attention (i.e. small batch, hand-made and artisan), with 26% doing so in Italy, followed by 17% in France, 16% in Germany, 15% in Spain and 13% in Poland.

26% of Italians are buying more food and drink products made with extra care and attention.

SOURCE: MINTEL

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Agree that organic fruit and vegetables are safer because they do not contain pesticides.

Would never buy food that had been genetically modified.

Agree that organic fruit and vegetables are better for the environment.

Agree that locally grown vegetables are worth paying more for.

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It is our belief that these attitudes will harden across Europe, should consumers be faced with the spectre of more modified and chemically treated produce and products. This will also present opportunities for newcomers – such as craft soft drink brands – with clean and natural credentials. Mintel research finds that 73% of UK consumers would like a sports or energy drink with all-natural ingredients, and 45% of fruit juice, juice drink and smoothie drinkers say that blending fruit juice with vegetable juice is a good way to cut the high sugar levels of these drinks.

These concerns around chemical safety and purity extend to personal care and home care. 48% of those who prefer to buy natural and organic products do so because they are better for their health, while 57% do so because organic and natural toiletries are free from unnecessary chemicals. Today, some 24% of UK adults who carry out household chores say that they worry about the impact on their health from using too many chemical-based cleaning products, with a further 31% saying that they worry about the impact of such products on the environment.

GROWING UNDERGROUND

48% of UK consumers who prefer to buy natural and organic toiletries do so because they are better for their health.

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WHERE NEXT?Will US brands flood the market with GM or pesticide products or will they seek to counter opposition and remove these ingredients to appeal to EU consumers? We’ve already seen something of a clean-up campaign in the US to allay domestic concerns, with Taco Bell removing all artificial colours, chemical ingredients and added trans-fats, General Mills removing all artificial flavours from its cereals

and Chipotle going GMO-free. Yet, however damaging TTIP might prove to the EU’s credibility, it may strengthen that of European food and lead to a rise in patriotic or local purchasing, with craft products growing in new sectors like soft drinks, sauces and coffee. We could see a broader reaction to imports, such as the UK producing more of its own quinoa and chorizo, or we could see Brazil, Peru and even Cuba become fashionable producers. To counter the financial appeal of an influx of cheap, processed foods, perhaps we will see more examples like Marqt, an

affordable organic supermarket in the Netherlands. Additionally, localism will reach its natural conclusion with more novelty ‘home-grown’ ventures such as Espresso Mushroom Company’s Kitchen Garden mushroom growing kits in the UK.

We believe that the media coverage around TTIP and the spectre of GMOs, pesticides and hormones will heighten the debate around – and the appetite for – newer, safer, alternative forms of protein, gluten-free and vegetarian products. At Expo Milano 2015

As part of this plant-based influx we may be seeing the shoots of some form of 'nouveau-vegetarianism', with more fruit and vegetable juice blends on the market.

we saw algae and seaweed championed as alternative protein sauces, with the Future Food District’s Urban Algae Folly generating enough spirulina daily for 12 people and Indonesia’s pavilion proudly boasting of how it farms 5.9 million tons of seaweed each year, accounting for 75% of the global market. What’s more, 2016 will be the international year of pulses, with bread that is pulse based expected to grow in popularity. Perhaps, in 2016 we’ll finally see Europe embrace the Japanese craze for ‘third beers’ (beers brewed with pea or soy protein). Alternative sweeteners such as monk fruit will flourish and we’ll see more plant-based products replace dairy products. We may even see gluten – and grain-free coconut, almond and even cauliflower flour and courgette pasta moving into mainstream.

TACO BELL

ESPRESSO MUSHROOM COMPANY

ESPRESSO MUSHROOM COMPANY

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As part of this plant-based influx we may be seeing the shoots of some form of ‘nouveau-vegetarianism’, with more fruit and vegetable juice blends on the market and Prêt A Manger’s CEO asking the public to vote on whether they should open a vegetarian-only Prêt A Manger. On the sustainability front, we believe that the debate around TTIP will foster another issue around ethical sourcing, with Fair Trade products extending into newer, more sophisticated claims such as bird-friendly coffee. In formulation, we’ll see more cold-pressed products and more patent activity around reintroducing natural ingredients into processed food and drink products – putting fibre back into fruit juice, for example.

Within the beauty market – because of the vast gulf between ingredients banned in the US and Europe – it may be that European brands enjoy elevated status on both sides of the pond. Whilst TTIP probably won’t have any direct effect on either the US or European beauty regulations, discussion of its possible ramifications will put both naturals and synthetics in the spotlight, encouraging more debate on free-from claims and on the origins and purity of botanical ingredients. We’ll also see brands react to consumer concerns by offering greater transparency in beauty and household ingredients, following the line of SC Johnson’s Glade which in 2014 became the first brand to reveal all of the fragrance ingredients in a product. We may

see a shift towards more ‘kitchen cosmetics’ as consumers seek to eat themselves pretty with those foods promoting their European or local purity credentials.

Whether or not the TTIP gets ratified in 2016 – the media storm surrounding it will be enough to get consumers to think – and look – twice at their food, beauty and cleaning products and begin exploring more natural alternatives.

We’ll see brands react to consumer concerns by offering greater transparency in beauty and household ingredients.

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ARCH- BEACONS

Beacons can flourish in retail and leisure by making consumers feel ‘in the know’ and ahead of the game.

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Beacons are here and they are set to soar. These intentionally conspicuous devices are designed to attract attention to specific locations.

Google’s open-sourced beacon format Eddystone (Android and iOS) will bolster the services already available from Apple’s iBeacon since 2013, thereby opening the technology to more consumers. In contrast to iBeacons, Eddystone allows users in stores to receive promotional URLs without an app. Google will

incorporate Eddystone into its Google Now app to bring up things like menu cards in restaurants. Shops and restaurants face something of a psychological battle to convince customers that they are in control, but the necessity of establishing a Wi-Fi and a Bluetooth connection should be promoted as a safeguard against unwanted promotional intrusions. The twin challenge for stores and venues is to provide connectivity as well as a compelling reason to opt in.

We expect beacon technology and contextual marketing to spread across retail and leisure. Beacons can welcome people to stores, inform them of offers and remind them of items they need to buy or have put on a wish list. This isn’t just about offers or information, however, these services can identify needs and connect people with sales assistants immediately to create a new level of responsive and interactive customer service. It will also give stores and brands a new level of granularity in terms of customer data.

ESTIMOTE BEACONS

The twin challenge for stores and venues is to provide connectivity as well as a compelling reason to opt in.

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WHY CONSUMERS WILL BUY INTO THISConnectivity still has some way to go in Europe, with Mintel predicting that the number of subscribers to broadband and 3G services will continue to grow strongly in 2016. In Spain and France it is set to increase by over 11%, while in Germany it will grow by over 8%. The uptake of beacon technology can be part of that story.

We ultimately believe that customers will embrace beacons because they meet their desires for convenience, personalisation and gamification. However, we are undoubtedly at a juncture where consumers need to be educated

and reassured as to their privacy whilst wooed with incentives. Mintel research reveals that 19% of UK internet users see receiving a pop-up on their smartphone while near a store as intrusive, compared with a mere 9% who think it is useful – which poses a clear challenge.

Unsurprisingly, it’s Millennials who will be the early adopters and they show warmer, more encouraging attitudes towards beacon technology. Some 33% of UK 16-34 year olds say they would be willing to give brands they like access to ‘real-time’ locations to receive more relevant offers. Meanwhile, 30% of UK female 16-24 year olds are interested in personalised special offers sent to their smartphone when shopping in-store. But Millennials do not live alone. As a result it’s our belief that they will continue to raise parental awareness in digital innovations.

Indeed, some 23% of UK parents openly admit that their child helps them learn to use devices. The legacy of this is that parents will become as comfortable with apps as with online shopping. This is confirmed by Mintel research, which shows that only 9% of UK smartphone users would be interested in hearing about deals through a pop-up on their device, yet this rises to 18% of smartphone owners who are parents of under-16s.

SMART BEACON MANAGEMENT CONSOLESMART BEACON MANAGEMENT CONSOLE | GELATORINO

The number of broadband and 3G subscribers in Spain and France is set to increase by over 11% in 2016.

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The key here will be to overcome privacy concerns while offering savings and convenience. After all, Mintel research finds that whilst 58% of UK consumers feel negative about pop-up ads, 21% will pay attention to internet ads if they offer a deal or discount and 47% like ads tailored to their personal interests.

It’s down to retailers and food service outlets to use beacons to match our desire for time and cost savings, as well as a degree of playfulness and serendipity. Beacons can help those 43% of RoI consumers who say that queues put them off buying lunch from some venues. They can also appeal by recognising us as individuals with specific customer service needs or by making us privy to specific ‘secret’ offers based on our habits or locations.

Beacons can meet the demands of those 55% of US primary grocery shoppers who say they’d like to see more promotions and coupons that are customised to their particular shopping habits. They can also appeal to those 16%

of UK consumers who agree that they compete with family and friends to gain as many loyalty points as possible. We’re already attuned towards the fun, competitive thrift of discounts and beacons suggest a way of turning this into a fun, real-time, gamified and shared pursuit.

Beacons have potential because they can appeal to a young mindset, nurtured on notions of digital individuality and post-recession budget savviness. This is encapsulated by the 62% of American teens who say that their favourite brand makes them feel “in-the-know”.

If this can be achieved, the potential audience ready to play and uncover secret geotagged discounts or offers is huge and not confined to the younger end of the market. Three in five UK consumers have purchased some form of computer game at some point, with 51% having done so within the last six months.

ONYXBEACON

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Europeans will embrace beacons because they meet their desires for convenience, personalisation and gamification.

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For customers, beacons can usher in a convenience era of queue-jumping, pre-ordering, customisation, loyalty points, digital tabs and pop-up menus, whilst remembering customer preferences in everything from seating to ingredients.

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EXTERION MEDIA’S BEACON TECHNOLOGY ON 500 LONDON BUSES SEND PASSENGERS LOCATION-RELEVANT MARKETING ALERTS

WHERE NEXT?Beacons can build loyalty and offer in-store sat navs, discounts, personalised alerts and mobile payment options, enabling staff to focus on service rather than transactional elements. Stores are able to track customer hot spots, dwell time and measure the effectiveness of promotional campaigns and store layouts. Beacons can also provide more detailed information for loyalty apps. There is an opportunity here to use location and profiling data to deliver more responsive and personalised face-to-face customer service, whilst geotagging can be used to introduce gamified ‘easter egg’ hunt style rewards in store.

We’ve already seen funfairs in the Netherlands use beacons for ride booking and queue-jumping. This can be expected to spread further. Beacon technology will enter zoos and museums, airports and stations, providing entertainment and extra location-based educational information. At festivals and sports stadiums, beacons can provide crowd control data creating real-time crowd density heat-maps and also marketing opportunities, so that sponsors and artists can connect via instant push notifications to mobile phones. Customers can co-opt their surveillance powers at events, by using beacon bracelets to help find their friends and family or find

the location of the nearest toilets. They can also introduce a social, ice-breaking aspect, notifying you when people from your LinkedIn or Facebook networks are at the same event as you.

Beacons have the power to bring destinations alive. For example, in the Netherlands the town of Zaan uses Stampion reward stamps at participating cafés and restaurants to teach visitors more about the town and reward them. Exterion Media is trialling beacon technology on 500 London buses to send passengers location-relevant marketing alerts. This ‘marketing as time killing’ mentality is also behind airports embracing

beacons, whilst airlines like Cathay Pacific are using them to publicise menus and amenities to passengers. Beacons can also inspire geotagged digital souvenirs in travel, as suggested by the app Traces, which allows users to leave geotagged messages and memories. Finally, beacons can also facilitate safer travel, with BlindSquare’s app helping to guide visually impaired people using beacon technology.

For customers, beacons usher in a convenience era of queue-jumping, pre-ordering, customisation, loyalty points, digital tabs and pop-up menus, whilst remembering customer preferences in everything

from seating to ingredients. For venues they provide invaluable data on occupancy, frequency and dwell time. In the Netherlands we’ve seen Bardigo enable customers to open tabs, order drinks and pay for them all via a bar’s native app. In South Korea, the Syrup Order app detects locations of participating franchises within a 500-metre radius for pre-order, payment and reward services. Beacons send notifications to café staff once the consumer enters the store and the order is delivered.

Beacons will become more plentiful and more accessible in 2016. Once consumers realise that they are the ones in control, the

technology will be embraced for the convenience, exclusivity, economy and serendipty it can deliver.

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Mintel’s expert sector analysts have used the 2016 trend predictions as a springboard to develop original product concepts.

COME TO LIFE IN 2016

ON THE WATERFRONT

Scotch Mist

High-end bottled water sourced from fog harvesting technology, where a percentage of the profits goes to a charity like WaterAid.

H2Know

Smart water meters ‘à la Nest’ that create and share peer leader boards on water savings, earning users water credits that translate into water for poorer – or drier – countries. The initiative is promoted in supermarkets by emptying bottled water aisles. The app is extended with beacon technology alerting people to free tap water at transport and shopping hubs. The brand also rates appliances with droplet symbols for efficiency.

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Sunday Driver

A classic car hire company specialising in ‘pleasure models’ for slower, weekend driving and cruising – where aesthetics and being seen are more important than rushing. Location-based delivery and collection once members have signed-up. The high-end ‘Uber to keep’ (for an afternoon, at least). Slow down, get noticed.

Traveltrunk.com

A service that builds you a travel wardrobe for hire that waits for you at your destination, encompassing everything from wetsuits and walking boots to occasional evening wear. You can virtually try on items before you travel. Should you fall in love with a particular item, you could buy it. This especially makes sense in destinations that are much hotter/colder than home. The holiday essentials you can live without.

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MALL-E Quite possibly the biggest shop you’ve never seen. This virtual shopping mall concept is showcased at a physical pop-up store where a receptionist gives you an Oculus Rift headset to take a virtual tour. MALL-E’s social area lets you check in with friends who are in the mall and go to the Netflix Cinema, Tinder Bar or LinkedIn Job Centre together. Groups are rewarded for meeting and shopping together with discounts, whilst grocers offer recipe lessons and salons offer beauty tutorials. Participation in both is rewarded with real-world appointments in physical stores, creating loyalty and a bridge between the virtual and the real.

AR-Cade

A 21st century update on the 80s video high-street arcade, where customers pay to enter a pop-up venue where they can play a host of VR and AR headset games in supervised spaces. Ideally, this is demoed in open mall or high street spaces and perfect for product launches.

MY MIND’S EYE

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Fresh Press Pressure processing, which is used in juices, is applied to baby food and other products as an alternative means of preserving nutrients and flavours to avoid artificial ingredients. These products are marketed as having a very short shelf life, which means local distribution and more room in our small space-pressed homes.

White Rabbit

‘Eat me, drink me, clean me’, this is a range of household, beauty and condiment goods that wash, moisturise, nourish and flavour. Vinegars, oils, creams and yoghurts that can do anything, taking inspiration from ‘old wives’ tales’ products.

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ARCHBEACONS

KidWatch

A beacon wristband that enables parents to let their kids run free, but track them within designated geolocation boundaries. This works perfectly whether kids are at home, at school or at play. Free your child, free your mind.

Lootr / Loungr A multi-company loyalty app for smaller businesses that asks people if they want to be a Lootr (be alerted to offers and discounts) or a Loungr (be alerted to special services). Lootr services encompass discounts and rewards (e.g. for those buying a product in its full range of flavours) and an AR function that allows them to view products with superimposed discounted prices through their phone. Loungr services include queue-jumping, concierge bag carrying, sales help and complimentary glasses of wine.

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96THE WORLD’S LEADING MARKET INTELLIGENCE AGENCYOur expert analysis of the highest quality data andmarket research will help you grow your business.

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