Post on 24-May-2015
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“Keeping Current Matters in Today’s Market”The Real Data. The Real Message. The Right Delivery.
December 2010
Fewer Fall Delinquent in Paying MortgagesNY Times 11/18/2010
“The high tide of delinquency among homeowners has begun to recede.”
More Homes Enter Foreclosure ProcessMarket Watch 11/18/2010
“A larger share of homes entered the foreclosure process in the 3rd quarter.”
The ConfusionThe Confusion
‘‘The Turn’The Turn’There are only two speeds
Win or Lose
Future House Sales Future House Sales – Fannie Mae & NAR– Fannie Mae & NAR
Fannie Mae and NAR 11/2010
NAR Fannie Mae
Price must be compelling!Price must be compelling!
Sales vs. Months SupplySales vs. Months Supply
Sales
MonthsSupply
KCM 12/2010 NAR
"Homes sold out of foreclosure represent a low-priced alternative to homes sold by owner-occupants. When foreclosure sales increase as a share of total home sales, as they are now, owner-occupants face increased pressure to reduce prices in order to compete. If sales of foreclosed homes continue to show greater stability than sales of other homes, overall housing prices will continue to deteriorate."
RPX Monthly Housing Market Report 12/2010
Impact of Shadow InventoryImpact of Shadow Inventory
- Quinn Eddins, Director of Research at Radar Logic
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
Shadow & Visible Inventory DetailShadow & Visible Inventory Detail
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
Shadow Inventory DetailShadow Inventory Detail
Month’s Supply of Distressed HomesMonth’s Supply of Distressed Homes
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
Month’s Supply of Distressed HomesMonth’s Supply of Distressed Homes
CoreLogic Shadow Inventory Report 11/2010
"Our focus should be on fixing problems where they are found and then moving forward expeditiously with foreclosure proceedings." - Edward J. DeMarco, Acting Director Federal Housing Finance Agency
Federal Housing Finance Agency 12/02/2010
Foreclosures Will IncreaseForeclosures Will Increase
Type of Sale % of ValueNon-Distressed Sale 100%Short Sale 81%Foreclosure Sale 59%
Value by Sale CategoryValue by Sale Category
Realty Trac Foreclosure Report 12/02/2010
Home Price Expectation Survey 11/2010
Housing Recovery ExpectationsHousing Recovery Expectations
First Step Taken During Home Buying ProcessFirst Step Taken During Home Buying Process
NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2010 11/2010
NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers 2010 11/2010
Web Sites Used in Home SearchWeb Sites Used in Home Search
Return on InvestmentReturn on Investment(January 1, 2000 –December 1, 2010)
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 11/2010
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey% Cumulative Price Change from Year End 2009
“If you don’t own a home, buy one.
If you own one home, buy another one.
If you own two homes, buy a third.
And, lend your relatives the money to
buy a home.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010
National Housing SurveyNational Housing Survey
Fannie Mae 11/2010
National Housing SurveyNational Housing Survey
Fannie Mae 11/2010
Major Reason for Buying %
Having a good place to raise children and provide a good education 80Having a physical structure where you and your family feel safe 79It allows you to have more space for your family 75It gives you control over what you do with your living space 69
National Housing SurveyNational Housing Survey
Fannie Mae 11/2010
National Housing SurveyNational Housing Survey
Fannie Mae 11/2010
96% see homeownership as a positive experience
Pricing as we move forward…Pricing as we move forward…
Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate
In a setback for the economy, hiring unexpectedly stalled in November and the nation's unemployment rate jumped to 9.8 percent, reversing a pattern of slow but steady improvement in the job market.
Future House Prices – Fannie MaeFuture House Prices – Fannie Mae
Today’s Price
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Mortgage Market Analysis 11/2010
Median Prices in Thousands
Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 11/2010
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
% Cumulative Price Change from Year End 2009
145
150
155
160
165
170
Nov'10 Feb'11 May'11 Aug'11 Nov'11 Feb'12 May'12 Nov'12 May'13 Nov'13 Nov'14
Future House Prices – CME GroupFuture House Prices – CME Group
Projected Bottom
CME Group 12/4/2010
December’s Price
Cost vs. PriceCost vs. Price
Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates –– 30 year fixed30 year fixed
Federal Reserve
Impact of Rates on PaymentImpact of Rates on Payment
Stand Out from the CrowdStand Out from the Crowd
KCMKCM on the go!on the go!
The KCM BlogThe KCM Blog
631.787.6200
www.KCMblog.com
www.steveharney.com
steve@steveharney.com
info@KeepingCurrentMatters.com
Flying solo, Flying solo, but never alone!but never alone!
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